The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question
(03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps
(06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation
(09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios
(15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock
(21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real
(27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes
(32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift
(33:32) - China Soft Power Play
(34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes
(35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery
(37:02) - What To Do With 401k
(40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet
(44:19) - Pre War Market Themes
(47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium
(50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy
(55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate
(01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes
01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome And Setup
(01:30) - Why Scotland Now
(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins
(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy
(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency
(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund
(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables
(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind
(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills
(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps
(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs
(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization
(31:20) - Searching For Analogies
(34:19) - Ireland And Independence
(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits
(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset
(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power
(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate
(46:41) -Future Growth Model
(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly
(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision
(53:56) - Closing
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate.
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Timestamps:
(00:27) - Why No US Attack
(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage
(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk
(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction
(06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic
(07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout
(08:43) - Hardliners Take Over
(10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy
(11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves
(12:43) - Allies China And Shipping
(15:06) - South Pars Escalation
(16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage
(17:36) - Is The Framework Broken
(18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting
(19:38) - White House Meme Strategy
(21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock
(23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today - a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that's been through hell once already.
If you enjoyed the conversation, check out more of Jody's work below!
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Timestamps:
(01:22) - Meet Jodi in Nairobi
(01:38) - Why Ethiopia Matters
(03:20) - Ethiopia Basics
(05:44) - Cold War Backstory
(07:13) - From Empire to Derg
(10:28) - TPLF Rule and Abiy Rise
(12:37) - How Tigray War Started
(14:55) - War Aftermath and Red Sea
(16:46) - Why Tigray Didn't Take Addis
(18:48) - Eritrea Explained
(23:17) - Regional Powers and the Dam
(25:38) - Little Dubai in Addis
(27:24) - Addis Boom And Displacement
(28:47) - Capital City Versus Hinterlands
(30:32) - Nightlife And Image Management
(31:21) - Tigray Trip And War Signs
(32:28) - Life In Mekelle After War
(35:12) - Drone Strikes And Media Crackdown
(37:30) - Fighters And Civilian Resolve
(40:38) - Plea To The International Community
(42:26) - Ethiopia Fragmentation And Armed Regions
(45:22) - Horn Powder Keg And Twitter Diplomacy
(48:15) - Why Ethiopia Matters To Him
(51:58) - Travel Origins And Chinese Factory Clue
(53:59) - Closing Thoughts And Thanks
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Referenced in the Show:
Jody's Work - https://jodyray.journoportfolio.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home - a reminder that geopolitics is always personal.
Note: If you know anyone in a Gulf or Middle Eastern state who has had to scramble in a similar way, or is experiencing the war on the ground, please connect us! We would love to feature their story.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Hello
(01:10) - Meet Avi Swerdlow
(01:58) - Siren Wake Up Call
(02:57) - Did You See It Coming
(05:53) - Flights Canceled Fast
(07:57) - Airbnb Safe Room Help
(10:29) - Embassy Alerts and STEP
(12:29) - Planning Land Escape
(14:07) - State Dept Evac Call
(16:30) - Airport Chaos and Shelter
(22:12) - Boarding DHS Evac Flight
(24:08) - Arrival in Athens
(24:17) - Athens to Rome Reset
(25:25) - Historic Moment Reflections
(26:28) - Evacuation Costs and Embassies
(27:30) - Inside the DHS Plane
(31:26) - Landing in Athens and Relief
(34:00) - Fellow Passengers Georgia Detour
(35:04) - Would You Go Back
(36:27) - Work and Family Back Home
(38:06) - Egypt Plan and Risk Tradeoffs
(39:46) - Other Routes and Final Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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