The Peel with Turner Novak

Hans Swildens started Industry Ventures in 2000, and this is his first podcast since selling it to Goldman Sachs in 2026.

Hans has been buying venture secondaries longer than almost anyone, and the combined business is one of the largest VC portfolios in the world: 525 firms, 1,600 funds, and over $22B in capital commitments.

We get into why he sold to Goldman, the barbell market quietly killing middle-stage venture, how VC's are manufacturing their own exits, why most seed funds without a real angle have 5 years left, the LP base that's a completely different species every fund cycle, how he started Industry by acquiring funds at 99% discounts during the Dot Com Collapse, the day he passed on a multi-billion-dollar data center, and why the secondary market may eventually be multiples the size of the primary market.

Thank you to Zach Coelius, Will Quist, Emily Zheng, and Andrea McGee for help brainstorming topics for the conversation.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APR https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Merge: Every model. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turner

Timestamps:
(0:00) Inside Goldman’s $22B venture bet
(7:57) 1,600 funds over 525 firms
(11:11) Why scale lets you “see the cube”
(14:17) Most humbling lesson in 26 years
(16:19) Three types of Seed funds
(18:47) LP's evolve every fund cycle
(22:00) VC is a sales game
(24:38) A strong CRM is non-negotiable
(29:06) Buying secondaries during the Dot Com Collapse
(31:33) Triangulating opinions across GP’s, founders, and LP’s
(37:22) Seed without differentiation doesn’t work
(42:16) Biggest mistakes by first-time GP’s
(44:31) Buying Enron’s VC portfolio at a 99% discount
(50:15) Entrepreneurial finance is underappreciated
(52:15) Why asset managers are acquiring venture firms
(58:47) Why it’s hard to start venture programs
(1:03:20) Secondaries: $250M to $150B market in 25 years
(1:08:06) Continuation funds & debt structured secondaries
(1:12:02) “Secondaries might be multiples bigger than primaries”
(1:19:52) How to structure secondary transactions
(1:26:00) What happens after SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic IPO’s
(1:30:35) How Seed survives the asset manager era
(1:35:16) How to manufacture liquidity
(1:41:41) How AI is impacting secondary markets

Referenced
Industry Ventures: https://www.industryventures.com/
How Big Is The Secondary Market for Venture Capital?: https://www.industryventures.com/insight/2023-2025e-how-big-is-the-secondary-market-for-venture-capital/
Exploring the Growth of Venture Secondaries: https://www.chronograph.pe/exploring-the-growth-of-venture-secondaries/
Pitchbook’s US Secondaries Market Watch: https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/2025-annual-us-vc-secondary-market-watch

Follow Hans
Twitter: https://x.com/HansSwildens
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hansswildens

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Charles Hudson started Precursor Ventures in 2015, and helped create pre-seed as a category.

Ten years and hundreds of Day 0 checks later, few investors have backed as many first-time founders, making him the perfect person to talk through the state of the category today.

We talk about why this is the hardest moment for pre-seed/seed investing he can remember, why sitting out of bubbles can be more dangerous than joining, how he hands his junior team real money to make their own bets, and urgency and “the last $250k effect”.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Merge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turner

Timestamps:
(0:00) Is Pre-Seed dead?
(4:15) Do round names matter anymore?
(12:27) Multi-stage signaling risk doesn’t exist
(16:42) Smart LP’s love multi-stage funds
(22:03) Is the traditional Seed model broken?
(26:31) Velocity of capital deployment drives all incentives
(30:30) How to compete with megafunds at early stage
(34:24) Megafunds have Seed funds in a vice-grip
(38:34) “The best Series A’s are all expensive"
(39:33) Are we doing 2021 all over again?
(41:53) It’s safer to participate in bubbles than sit out
(47:35) Price you pay is everything
(50:22) The system incentivizes an addiction to consensus
(55:22) High valuation + high CapEx grows AUM
(59:56) How Precursor actually invests today
(1:01:32) Precursor’s Principal investor program
(1:05:56) Deciding when to selling your winners
(1:10:53) Raising as a pre-consensus founder
(1:12:39) What Charles looks for in founders
(1:17:20) What it’s actually like to start a fund
(1:20:56) Misconceptions of first-time fund managers
(1:26:22) 300+ LP meetings to raise Precursor Fund 1
(1:29:24) The single tweak to his pitch that raised the fund
(1:31:54) Precursor’s evolution over time
(1:34:57) The second desert of venture capital
(1:37:34) The last $250k effect

Referenced
Precursor: https://precursorvc.com/
a16z’s State of Markets report https://x.com/TurnerNovak/status/2015830796393742599?s=20

Follow Charles
Twitter: https://x.com/chudson
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chudson
Charles Substack: https://chudson.substack.com/

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Dan Teran is the co-founder Gutter Capital, a concentrated seed fund in NYC, and Elbow Grease, the accelerator that puts 15 startups in one building and helps build their teams for them.

Gutter just announced a $75M Fund III and opened applications for the second Elbow Grease batch (apply below by July 31st)

We get into starting an accelerator when there’s already a hundred of them, why Gutter prefers very concentrated portfolios, what it was actually like selling Managed by Q to WeWork, why raising a fund turned out to be harder than selling a company, why he thinks startups should form a board and use OKR’s from day one, and the time he went big-wave surfing with Adam Neumann and Laird Hamilton.

Thank you to James Gettinger, Satya Patel, Abhinav Kapur, and JT White for help brainstorming topics for the conversation.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Merge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turner

Timestamps:
(0:00) Elbow Grease: NYC’s new accelerator
(7:39) Building a small, hands-on, in-person experience
(13:39) Recruiting 100 people into portfolio companies
(16:25) Portfolio concentration makes investors more helpful
(24:58) Why raising Fund 1 was so hard
(28:08) Advice for new fund managers
(30:30) “Hiring today is as competitive as ever”
(32:23) Selling Managed By Q to WeWork
(35:23) “Never raise too much money”
(39:43) Almost buying his company back from WeWork in Feb 2020
(43:50) Starting Gutter Capital in the depths of COVID
(49:34) Funding angel investing with gambling proceeds
(52:39) Behind the name “Gutter Capital”
(54:49) “Raising a fund is like getting punched in the face”
(59:03) Writing long LP letters
(1:06:45) Investing in real world problems
(1:09:48) What a Gutter founder looks like
(1:12:46) How Gutter makes new investments
(1:18:41) Importance of customer calls at pre-seed
(1:21:59) Evolution of NYC tech over last 15 years
(1:26:15) Why you should form a board at Seed
(1:28:29) How to run a Seed stage board meeting
(1:34:04) Sharing carry with portfolio founders
(1:35:56) The best founders need lots of help
(1:39:30) Big wave surfing with Adam Neumann and Laird Hamilton

Referenced
Apply to Elbow Grease: https://forms.gutter.cc/eg0002-application
Elbow Grease: https://elbowgrease.cc/
Gutter Capital: https://www.gutter.cc/
WeWork Acquires Managed By Q: https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/03/wework-acquires-managed-by-q/

Follow Dan
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danteran/

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Sam Blond is the Co-founder and CEO of Monaco, the revenue engine for startups.

Sam is one of the best sales operators in tech. He spent four years as CRO at Brex, where he helped scale it to a ~$12B valuation, ran sales at Zenefits before that, and got his start at EchoSign.

If there’s a modern GTM playbook, Sam helped write it. Our conversation walks through how AI has rewritten a big chunk of it. But most importantly, we talk about what hasn’t changed.

We get into the sales work AI is now better at than humans, and why Sam thinks 90% of startups misdiagnose their bottleneck as conversion when it’s really demand gen.

He explains why he doesn’t measure early brand marketing at all and trusts anecdotes over attribution, walks through the full Monaco launch playbook including the Super Bowl box-truck story, and shares a rev-ops insight from Brex, including how they figured out a specific ICP converted at 4x the rate of another.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Merge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turner

Timestamps:
(0:00) Scaling Brex to $12B
(1:14) How AI speeds up prospecting and TAM building
(5:19) Using AI to get more leverage
(9:15) Incubating Monaco at Founders Fund
(12:56) Innovator’s dilemma in AI
(15:57) Why AI companies build full platforms, not wedge products
(23:30) Revenue is just a math equation
(27:18) Two ways AI increases conversion rates
(36:56) AI will never replace spending time with customers
(39:46) Don’t measure the impact of brand marketing
(49:03) Your marketing must be different (and hard)
(58:39) Customer discovery calls and working with design partners
(1:03:03) The zero to 100 launch
(1:11:00) Monaco’s launch playbook
(1:19:00) Send gifts that are unique and social
(1:22:17) Naming your company
(1:28:04) Founders should send early outbound
(1:32:38) How multi-channel augments AI outbound
(1:39:42) Using intent signals and outreach timing to increase conversions
(1:43:28) Two common ways founders mess up when scaling revenue
(1:50:22) Monaco’s Forward Deployed AE's

Referenced
Try Monaco: https://www.monaco.com/
Careers at Monaco: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/monaco
Sam’s launch post: https://x.com/samdblond/status/2026420015793320129?s=20

Follow Sam
Twitter: https://x.com/samdblond
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sam-blond-791026b/

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Nuno Goncalves Pedro is the Founder and Managing Partner at Chamaeleon. He won't describe it this way, but I'd call Chamaeleon something like "The RenTech of VC."

Chamaeleon is built around its proprietary data platform, Mantis, which borrows tools like factor analysis from public-market investors and operates more like a quant hedge fund than a traditional venture firm.

We talk through a bunch of data that cuts against the common narrative in venture, including why repeat founders aren't always the safer bet, why sub-$100m funds catch the majority of fund-returning deals, and why 10x might be a better target than 100x.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Merge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turner

Timestamps:
(1:00) When 1st time founders outperform serial entrepreneurs
(8:05) Mantis: factor-driven quant model for VC
(18:33) Why most VC’s are not data-driven
(22:28) Top 1% VC fund performance
(27:41) Early customer sentiment stronger success indicator than PMF or Team
(34:09) Importance of co-investors on performance
(39:42) Sub-$100M funds capture 70% of fund-returning deals each year
(43:53) The Neolab AI bubble
(52:16) Marketing games that VC’s play
(55:22) Most investors are not high conviction
(56:43) Startups not raising for at least 3 years are 5x less likely to succeed. 10x less likely at 5 years.
(1:00:19) Emerging managers have lowest LP interest in the last 15 years
(1:11:19) LP capital is much less concentrated than in 2011
(1:16:28) The importance of remaining relevant
(1:21:01) You must lean into your unique edge as an investor
(1:23:18) Pros/Cons of an alumni network venture strategy
(1:28:29) Specialist funds outperform generalists (with a catch)
(1:35:22) The data says go for 10x, not 100x returns
(1:41:41) Should you start or join a VC firm today?
(1:48:07) Nuno’s collection of 270+ phones
(1:53:16) Racing cars (and winning championships)

Referenced
Chamaeleon: https://www.chamaeleon.vc/
Tech Deciphered Podcast https://decipheredshow.com/
Say It With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/Say-Charts-Executives-Visual-Communication/dp/007136997X
How To Lie With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/How-Charts-Gerald-Everett-Jones/dp/1419651439
Redmagic Phone: https://redmagic.gg/
ASUS Rog phone: https://rog.asus.com/phones/rog-phone-model/

Follow Nuno
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ngpedro/

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/