Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Henry warned Republicans they were in for a terrible night—and called it close!—but how could anyone have anticipated an electoral massacre of such proportions? Henry's got a short rant to go over what we know so far and to consider some of the popular takes on what went wrong.

We're taking a week off, but Beyond the Polls will be back after that to get an early start on assessing the road to '28.

Midterms are just days away, so it's busy season for everyone in the election prediction biz. This week, there's no rant and no ads; just Henry and a couple of sleep-deprived friends to help you get your bearings ahead of another high-stakes cycle. First up is Sean Patrick Maloney—former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD and the CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. He joins to explain the derivative markets that have shaken up polling. Next, Cook Political's Jessica Taylor surveys the Senate seats swinging in the balance. And lastly, Scott Braddock of The Quorum Report drops in to discuss the uncharacteristically tight races in Texas. 

Be sure to follow Henry on X to catch his Election Night livestream! We'll be up reporting the returns from poll closures on the Atlantic and remain until the Alaskans have their say.

There's no getting around the fact that Republicans are unpopular these days and that they're in for an unpleasant midterm. But should we really believe the flood will reach the Midwest or Rust Belt districts that elevated President Trump to double-digit margins? Patrick Rufini, founding partner of Echelon Insights, doesn't think so. He sits down with Henry to make his case. 

Plus, Henry draws an important distinction between the lead and the level of predicted vote share to explain why all 2-point edges should not be considered equal. And for today's ad of the week, he examines the viral attack and response in the especially fierce battle for Ohio between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton.

Can't get enough of Henry's election analysis? Subscribe to his free weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday.

The midterms are just weeks away, and Democrats are still enjoying a historically large lead in the generic congressional ballot. In response, the president is jetting about to rally support in key states. However, unlike the boldly expansive campaigns of MAGA ascendancy, his visits to safe districts reveal a defensive strategy aimed at mitigating losses. Henry rants his way through this development and draws attention to others that casual observers might miss, as he comes closer to finalizing his big election prediction.

Plus, we look at two ads that bet it all on Independents. Stay tuned till the end for Henry's thoughts on late pitches for these ambitious campaigns to flip a Minnesota Senate seat and Montana's 1st Congressional District.

Follow the midterms like a pro! Subscribe to Henry's weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday.

There's good news and bad news, Toto: We are still in Kansas, but it's not the safe state we'd grown used to. With the midterms less than a month away, and reports confirming the GOP's move to divert funds to tightening races in the agricultural belt, Henry opts to fly solo this week to survey the windswept field ahead of the battle. Considerable movement has occurred in response to the president's bold maneuvering after returning to office, particularly among the Independents and MAGA-lite Republicans who helped elect him. But is a complete leveling inevitable? Not so, says Henry, who offers a lesson from the 2022 midterms that Republicans have curiously left on the table so far. 

Plus, Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers has a new ad that reveals an important detail about this cycle's swing state playbook. 

Can't wait til Thursday for Henry's election insights? Subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for an early look at his latest thoughts on the approaching midterms.