After five long years since his last ChinaTalk appearance, Jake Sullivan returns to the show!
We discuss…
Sullivan’s experience managing crises, implementing grand strategy, and cultivating leadership skills during the Biden administration,
The art of crafting aggressive industrial policy, from chips to rare earths to infrastructure,
The risk of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait, and whether Pelosi’s Taipei visit was a mistake,
Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship and the development of Biden’s posture on Ukraine,
Whether Trump can succeed at ratcheting down tensions with China.
Check out Sullivan's new podcast, The Long Game (Apple, Spotify)
Reading recommendations:
Feeding Ghosts
The Social History of the Machine Gun
To Run the World
A reminder: this is the conversation I wanted to have with Jake, not the one you want to have. For other recent interviews that get more into the Biden administration around the withdrawal of Afghanistan, the pace of arming Ukraine, and America’s handling of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, see all these six other shows he’s done this year.
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1:10:55
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1:10:55
Second Breakfast: Acquisition Reform? Are We Really Doing It?
Justin and Eric cohost with Pete Modigliani and Matt McGregor, coauthors of the Defense Tech and Acquisition substack (https://defenseacquisition.substack.com/).
Chapters
16:24 The Future of Defense Technology and Startups
33:37 Cultural Shifts in Acquisition Practices
44:57 Taskers and Bureaucratic Inefficiencies
55:06 Vendor Lock and Software Solutions
Outtro music: more suno slop https://suno.com/s/FVtn90DmV8xuLcfp
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1:04:20
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1:04:20
Overfit: AI Lovers, Chinese Model Takeover, Vice Signalling, Hefei Model
Jasmine Sun (https://jasmi.news/), Nathan Lambert (https://www.interconnects.ai/), and special guest Afra Wang (https://afraw.substack.com/).
Our article on 'China makes AI girlfriends and America makes AI boyfriends' https://www.chinatalk.media/p/why-america-builds-ai-girlfriends
More on the Hefei model: https://hellochinatech.substack.com/p/china-hefei-model
05:53 ai
12:46 remorseful AI models
29:43 AI in porn
32:17 ai voice generation uncanny valley
34:55 good Chinese AI models and the hefei model
47:40 Vice Signaling
Outtro music: a suno song with kimi-generated generated lyrics called "A glitch in the gospel" https://suno.com/s/O8tIJ63c7t3NOEtO
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59:21
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59:21
Second Breakfast: Colby's Pigpen, Counter-UAS, Training, Eat like a Trumper (or Iranian Spy?)
we cooked better than cafe milano
00:00 Colby's trainwreck of a hearing + right wing DC food
16:42 Countering Drones
35:32 How to train seriously
Guests include:
Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/
Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/
Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC
Outtro music: more suno https://suno.com/s/hpZX8pdjirTsM5je
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1:05:38
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1:05:38
EMERGENCY POD: Tariffs on Trial
Peter Harrell and Oren Cass join the show to talk IEEPA at the Supreme Court and broader US grand strategy towards China.
03:01 IEPA Tariffs and Their Implications
17:27 Reciprocity and Trade Agreements
20:13 USMCA and Fortress North America
39:01 Decoupling from China: A Strategic Perspective
43:41 Trump's Economic Approach to China
47:48 The Chips Debate: National Security and Economic Interests
01:05:24 Reflections on Political Discourse and Legal Arguments
01:16:17 a ridiculous suno song
We discuss Oren's 'Grand Strategy of Reciprocity' https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/grand-strategy-reciprocity and 'Stop Selling the Rope' essays https://americancompass.org/stop-selling-the-rope/
Outtro music: Suno does Hamilton for this case https://suno.com/s/xPRkTjq5KQ4MPXLb
Peter's amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-1287/380641/20251024173045050_24-1287%2025-150%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf
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Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.
Check out the newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media/
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