Explaining Brazil

As the saying goes, the calm comes before the storm. In Brazil’s Supreme Court, the current crisis came after a period of glory and renown.
In September 2025, the Supreme Court made history and became a global reference. Breaking with Brazil’s long tradition of impunity for military interference in politics, the court analyzed a wealth of evidence and convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro and top-ranking military officers for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
That same month, Edson Fachin took office as the Supreme Court Chief Justice and quickly expressed his desire to create a code of conduct for members of the top court. Apparent conflicts of interest involving justices are common — and preventing them is also a way to strengthen the rule of law.
In December, however, the court was pulled into the swirling scandal involving Banco Master — a mid-sized lender that was liquidated amid suspicions of fraud involving billions of reais. The bank’s owner, Daniel Vorcaro, has ties to state governors, lawmakers, high-ranking executive personnel and justices, putting many people under suspicion across the political spectrum.
Late last year, the press revealed that the wife of Justice Alexandre de Moraes had signed a three-year contract with Banco Master worth BRL 129 million (USD 25 million) to work as a lawyer for the bank. The contract's value raised eyebrows.
Soon after, it became public that Justice Dias Toffoli, the rapporteur of the Master case, had recently traveled on a private jet to a football match with the lawyer of one of the bank’s former executives. That alone would already be inappropriate. But from there, the problems only piled up.

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Amid a global context of eroding multilateralism and rising US trade wars, Mercosur and the European Union are trying to create a shared market for more than 700 million people. 
The proposed free trade zone for goods and services encompasses 27 European countries, plus Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay on the other side of the Atlantic, with Bolivia in the process of joining as well. Combined, the economies involved in the deal make up for approximately 20% of global GDP.
The deal was finally signed on January 17, after more than 26 years of back-and-forth negotiations. 
But yet again, European farming countries are doing whatever they can to stall its implementation. On January 21, European lawmakers backed a resolution to seek an opinion from the EU’s Court of Justice on whether the free-trade deal complies with existing EU treaties.
That could stall the deal by up to two years — although the agreement’s backers, such as Germany, are trying to go ahead and implement it on a provisional basis until the court says its piece. 

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Lula did not recognize Maduro’s 2024 election win, but his first two terms in office in the 2000s saw him make South American integration a top priority of Brazil’s foreign policy, and maintain close ties with the Hugo Chavez government of the time.

Venezuela held the world’s largest oil reserves. It was a country with limited development in other sectors, highly dependent on imports, and eager to challenge a US-led world order. Brazil, meanwhile, had industrial goods, construction companies looking to expand abroad, and ambitions to lead the political rise of the Global South. The partnership had the potential to be highly fruitful.

Since then, however, much has changed in both countries, and ambitious regional integration projects have stalled. Now the United States is once again pulling Venezuela back into its sphere of influence, and away from China and Russia — and Brazil appears to have little room to maneuver.

To understand Brazil-Venezuela relations in the 21st century — including the economic and political choices made by each country — our guests are:

Diplomat Rômulo Neves, telling us what he witnessed firsthand in Brazil-Venezuela diplomatic relations while serving at the Brazilian Embassy in Caracas in 2007, during Chávez’s government. He is currently Minister-Counselor at the Brazilian Embassy in Rwanda, and author of the book “Political Culture and Elements for Analyzing Venezuelan Politics,” published in Portuguese by Funag. 

Our Latin America Editor, Ignacio Portes, discusses what has changed in those bilateral relations during Maduro's government. 
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In Latin America, 2026 quite literally got off to an explosive start.
Just before sunrise on January 2, the city of Caracas was violently awoken by the sound of bombs, as US forces launched a sudden, high-intensity strike on the Venezuelan capital. Within hours, President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were in American custody — flown out of the country and headed to New York to face criminal charges.
The Venezuelan government has provided no official death count from the strikes, but they are believed to be in the dozens — at least 40, per some accounts.
Even by Washington’s standards, this was extraordinary. But it aligns neatly with Washington’s new worldview.
In its latest National Security Strategy, the US no longer frames Latin America as a partner. Instead, the US describes it as a buffer — a region expected to stop migrants, narcotics and Chinese influence before they reach US shores.

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In any democratic republic, it’s normal for the executive, legislative, and judicial branches to clash. That’s a sign of mutual oversight. It’s also normal for politicians to make concessions to their adversaries. That’s a sign of democracy.
But the sequence of recent events in Brazilian politics has turned into a sweeping narrative about what happens when these dynamics of checks and balances slide into sheer revanchism and bargaining over the rule of law.
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