Forecast 2050

Apple didn't just build its iPhones in China. It taught China how to build them, and then how to build everything else. Now Apple says it's diversifying. But Patrick McGee thinks Apple is more dependent on China than ever before.

Journalist Patrick McGee, author of Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company, joined me on Forecast 2050 to explain how Apple’s bet on Chinese manufacturing helped create America’s only real tech rival, why Trump doesn’t have the cards with Xi, whether China takes Taiwan, why Nvidia would be useless in a war, and what the US-China relationship will look like by 2050.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/how-apple-made-china-into-a-superpower

00:00 Intro
02:54 Manufacturing Is Power
11:59 The CCP
16:56 Will China Take Taiwan by 2050?
25:11 Why Nvidia Would Be Useless in a War
27:06 The Case for Industrial Policy
32:04 How Xi Brought Apple to Heel
39:32 The End of Pax Americana
47:20 The Next Jony Ive is Chinese
01:00:20 China’s Next Leaders
01:07:47 Demographic Collapse & Automation

Patrick McGee is a technology journalist who covered Apple for the Financial Times from 2019 to 2023 and wrote for the FT from 2013 to 2025, reporting from Hong Kong, Frankfurt and San Francisco. His book Apple in China won the SABEW Award for Best Business Book and was named a top book of 2025 by The New York Times, Foreign Affairs and The New Yorker.

Patrick on X: https://x.com/PatrickMcGee_
Patrick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/prmcgee/
Website: https://patrick-mcgee.com

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Laura Kreidberg believes there is life out there in the universe.

An astrophysicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy in Heidelberg, Germany, Laura is one of the youngest directors ever appointed to a Max Planck Institute. Her work uses the Hubble and James Webb space telescopes to explore the atmospheres of planets orbiting distant stars. I sat down with Laura to discuss how astronomers study worlds too far away to photograph, why intelligence may not be evolutionarily favorable, and why Laura thinks we'll discover life on other worlds in the next 30 years.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/the-hunt-for-alien-life-on-distant

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
03:10 The Atmospheres of Other Worlds
08:14 In Astronomy, Bigger is Better
10:50 Earth-like Planets
20:04 The Huge Variety of Exoplanets
26:03 Science Communication
27:30 Intelligence is Not Evolutionary Favorable
33:30 Signs of Life on Exoplanets
40:19 Discovering Aliens in 30 Years
45:44 Science as Soft Power

Laura Kreidberg is the Director at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, where she studies the atmospheres of exoplanets for signs of life.

Laura on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/laura-kreidberg-3a08581b7
Laura on X: https://x.com/lkreidberg
Max Planck Institute for Astronomy Profile: https://www.mpia.de/en/laura-kreidberg

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Silicon Valley frames AI as a race against China to reach AGI. In China, almost nobody thinks that way.

Journalist Yi-Ling Liu, author of The Wall Dancers and journalist in residence at the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, joined me on Forecast 2050 to explain how China actually sees AI, the “permanent underclass” that predates automation, demographic collapse and the Chinese silver economy, and the Christian origins of the transhumanist movement.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/why-is-silicon-valley-obsessed-with

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
02:58 Superintelligence Is Not China’s Goal
08:06 The Pre-AI Permanent Underclass
11:00 The Tech-Government Revolving Door
17:05 Lying Flat
19:57 Christian Singularity vs. Daoist AI
26:06 Overcoming Censorship
32:10 The TikTok Ban
36:58 Chinese Perceptions of the West
46:16 The Silver Economy

Yi-Ling Liu is a journalist in residence at the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, former China editor at Rest of World, and author of The Wall Dancers: Searching for Freedom and Connection on the Chinese Internet.

Yi-Ling on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yi-ling-l-89799783/
Yi-Ling on X: https://x.com/yilingliu95
Website: https://www.yi-lingliu.com/

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

General David Petraeus believes we need draconian change to prepare for the age of autonomous warfare.

A retired four-star general, Gen. Petraeus commanded U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and led U.S. Central Command before serving as director of the CIA. I sat down with Gen. Petraeus to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, how autonomous drones and weapons will fight the wars of the future, and the new big ideas we need to keep the world stable for the next 25 years.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:57 Commanding Autonomous Systems
04:55 Revolution, Not Reform
11:21 Inside the Death Zone
19:17 America Is Unprepared for Future Wars
23:41 A New AI Military Service Branch
35:12 The UK Will Lead Military Innovation
42:02 The War for Truth
49:19 The Big Ideas for the Next 25 Years
54:15 The Leaders of the Future

David Petraeus is a former CIA Director who commanded U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is now a partner at KKR and the Chairman of its Global Institute.

General Petraeus on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidpetraeus/

Thanks to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project for the maps in the interview: www.understandingwar.org and www.criticalthreats.org.

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

The real reason AI was given to humans is to communicate with animals, according to David Gruber. A marine biologist and National Geographic Explorer, he is the founder of Project CETI, a global effort of more than 50 scientists across eight disciplines working to decode the communication of sperm whales. In this episode of Forecast 2050, I sit down with David to discuss the prospect of an interspecies dialogue and the seismic implications it will have for all of us, whales included.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/can-ai-talk-to-whales-project-ceti

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:48 David's Journey
12:30 An Interspecies Dialogue
17:14 Sperm Whale Language & Culture
23:48 The Breakthroughs Yet to Come
27:49 The Whales Are Yappers
31:03 Sperm Whales Have Accents
39:47 Verifying a Whale Translation
42:13 What Success Looks Like
47:32 Saving the Whales

David Gruber is a marine biologist and National Geographic Explorer who founded Project CETI, a team of more than 50 scientists using AI to decode how sperm whales communicate.

David on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-gruber-b003871/
Project CETI on X: https://x.com/ProjectCETI
Project CETI on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/projectceti/
Project CETI Website: https://www.projectceti.org/

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.