What Bitcoin Did

Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle still intact, and what does that mean for the next six months?

In this episode, I sit down with The Rational Root to break down where we are in Bitcoin's cycle, why on-chain data is flashing bear market signals despite Bitcoin holding up through the Iran war, and what the bottom formation could look like from here.

We discuss the shift from retail hype to institutional adoption, why OTC buying from ETFs and treasury companies dampened this cycle's price action, how gold and AI stole Bitcoin's mindshare, and whether passive flows from the likes of Saylor could prevent another leg down. Root walks through his key on-chain charts and explains why he thinks there's still a probability of one more drop before Bitcoin starts its next move up.

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"Our entire financial system will blow up without their factories, without their oil. And they know that. So they can wait."

Luke Gromen is a macroeconomic analyst, investor and founder of FFTT.

In this episode, we get into whether the Iran war exposed a far bigger geopolitical shift than most people realise, why Luke thinks missiles and drones may have changed global power forever, and what all of this means for oil, markets, Bitcoin and the future of the dollar system.

We also get into why Bitcoin held up better than expected during the conflict, why Luke still thinks risk assets face serious danger ahead, and how AI could trigger a major credit event faster than almost anyone expects.

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"Statistically, right now, we are basically at the bottom. This is as cheap as Bitcoin gets."

Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of Crypto Voices and one of the leading voices on Bitcoin's power law and global money supply data.

In this episode, we dig into why Bitcoin's quantile regression is showing we're scraping the absolute floor, why the four-year cycle is completely intact despite everyone calling it dead last year, and what the Fed's balance sheet actually tells us about where Bitcoin goes next.

In this episode:

• The Power Law: Why Bitcoin at $63k represents the cheapest level relative to trend in its entire history, and what the quantile regression is actually showing

• The Four-Year Cycle: How the 2024-2025 price action perfectly follows prior cycles despite the "cycle is dead" narrative.

• The 550k Projection: What the power law projects for Bitcoin by 2029-2030.

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Is this the start of a financial crisis?

Jeff Snider is the founder of Eurodollar University and the go-to voice on how the global financial system really works.

In this episode, we discuss why the shadow banking and private credit bubble is bursting right now, the cockroaches emerging across the credit markets that reveal nobody did any due diligence during the bubble years, and Jeff's three-stage financial crisis framework for understanding how bad this could get.

We also get into why the Fed is essentially a political lightning rod with no real control over the monetary system, why bond markets have been pricing in a crisis since 2021 regardless of what the Fed does, and how people should position themselves, including Jeff's take on $60k Bitcoin.

In this episode, we cover:

• The 3 Stages of Financial Crisis: From early outflows (Stage 1) to forced selling (Stage 2) to systemic panic and the domino effect (Stage 3) — and where we are right now

• The Cockroach Problem: Why big banks failed to check if the collateral they were lending against even existed, and what that reveals about the scale of the bubble

• Credit Crisis vs Liquidity Crisis: The critical distinction that determines whether this stays contained or spills into broader markets

• The Fed's Illusion of Control: Why the bond market has been pricing in a crisis since 2021, regardless of what Jay Powell says or does

• Bitcoin & Survival: How to position yourself for a Stage 3 collapse and why wealth preservation is no longer optional in a debasing fiat system

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Is Bitcoin's worst sentiment ever actually the biggest buying opportunity?

Alex Thorn is Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital. In this episode, we discuss why Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high, the reality behind the Jane Street manipulation allegations, why sentiment is among the worst it's ever been, and whether the four-year cycle played out after all. We also get into AI's potential to massively disrupt the job market, Alex's thesis on why you need to start building your "fleet of robots" now before it's too late, and why Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition matters more than ever despite the narrative damage.

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