Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

• 2025 AI reality check: Are we in a bubble?

  At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.In this episode you’ll hear:The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problemsWhen bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summerThe Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscapeClimate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two yearsWhat I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistanceWhy getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecastingThe 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulenceOur new showThis was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemTimestamps:(00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025(01:23) #1: No AI Wall(03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment(05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans(06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF(08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify(09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records(10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear(11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately(12:01) What I missed(12:14) The CapEx boom around AI(13:56) The rise of humanoid robots(14:36) AI's impact on the workforce(18:40) Looking ahead(18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next(19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks"(21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble(23:02) A question for the futureProduction:Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

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• What 72hrs in China taught me about the future (AI, EVs, more)

  In this episode, I reflect on a whirlwind three-day visit to China - my first in over 20 years. And what I saw was remarkable. The infrastructure puts most of the West to shame. The AI isn't just hype - it's working at serious scale. And the electric vehicles? They're about to steamroll the global auto industry. Here's what really struck me during my whirlwind trip to Beijing and beyond.In this episode you'll hear:Infrastructure built at speed: Beijing's immaculate airport, 300 km/h rail to Tianjin for £17, and pristine expressways that put US infrastructure to shame.Verticalised AI in action: While Chinese labs trail US frontier models and face compute constraints, they're excelling in verticals - profitable robotaxis in Wuhan, healthcare AI analyzing 5.5 billion medical records, and Squirrel AI's $200m education platform that outperforms China's best human teachers.EV cost leadership is set: Chinese electric vehicles are absolutely remarkable. Years of vicious domestic competition have created incredible innovation and cost discipline that will hit European carmakers like a sledgehammer.The air quality transformation: Beijing at 37°C was clean enough for a morning run, thanks to widespread EV adoption.Scale that defies comprehension: Convention centers 100 times the size of Union Square, cities of 20 million people, and AI platforms serving tens of millions of users.Our new showThis was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemTimestamps:(00:00) Surprises at the airport(01:21) Immense scale(01:54) 3 areas of interest(02:37) Chinese infrastructure and engineering(03:22) ~180mph train, £17 fare(04:29) Multi-lane expressways built for scale(05:55) Development of AI in china(06:09) China leans into vertical AI(08:12) Apollo robotaxis: unit-cost positive(09:33) Yidu Tech: 5.5B health records(10:35) Squirrel AI outperforms top teachers(14:29) EVs & clean air(16:14) BYD x Octopus: earn by charging(18:30) EV boom improves Beijing air(19:56) Luxury Chinese EV interior(21:08) Closing thoughtsProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

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• The problem with Altman’s “gentle singularity,” Apple’s AI missteps, and Google’s fading ad model | Live with Azeem Azhar

  Broadcasting live from Paris, I tackle three massive technology stories that are reshaping our digital future. From Apple's stunning interface redesign to the collapse of traditional search advertising, and Sam Altman's vision of an AI singularity that's already begun - this episode captures the tectonic shifts happening in tech right now.I cover:(1:32) WWDC 2025:  Apple’s AI challenges and new UI(6:06) The decline of Google’s ad model(10:08) Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity essay(19:37) Live audience Q&A(19:45) Is the singularity really about Altman?(22:13) Is France carrying Europe’s AI dreams?(24:58) Are you seeing promising AI hardware?(27:42) How will AI change software pricing?Our new showThis was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

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• OpenAI’s CPO on what’s coming next: Hardware, GPT-5, Jony Ive, agents, more

  This week, I'm speaking with Kevin Weil, Chief Product Officer at OpenAI, who is steering product development at what might be the world's most important company right now.We talk about:(00:00) Episode trailer(01:37) OpenAI's latest launches(03:43) What it's like being CPO of OpenAI(04:34) How AI will reshape our lives(07:23) How young people use AI differently(09:29) Addressing fears about AI(11:47) Kevin's "Oh sh!t" moment(14:11) Why have so many models within ChatGPT?(18:19) The unpredictability of AI product progress(24:47) Understanding model “evals”(27:21) How important is prompt engineering?(29:18) Defining “AI agent”(37:00) Why OpenAI views coding as a prime target use-case(41:24) The "next model test” for any AI startup(46:06) Jony Ive's role at OpenAI(47:50) OpenAI's hardware vision(50:41) Quickfire questions(52:43) When will we get AGI?Kevin's links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevinweil/Twitter/X: @kevinweilAzeem's links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemOur new show:This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack.Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

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• Tyler Cowen on how AI will reorder economies, schools, and spirituality

  Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen challenges Silicon Valley's optimistic projections about AI-driven economic growth. We explore what could slow AI's economic impact, despite its remarkable capabilities – and where humans find the new normal amidst major shifts.Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:47)  The problem with Silicon Valley's AI-driven growth projections (06:02) The institutional bottleneck to AI progress (10:49) Markets aren’t pricing in a radical AI future (12:53) Are we heading for a great job displacement? (17:02) Is GDP still worth talking about? (19:11) Who does AI benefit most? (21:11) Will AI cause a human identity crisis? (27:11) The education system’s failure to adapt (35:34) How the Gulf could become a geopolitical powerhouse (39:10)  Could AI change religion? (46:46)  Closing thoughts Tyler's links: Marginal Revolution Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeemOur new showThis was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack.Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 LTD

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