ChinaTalk

• Betting on Chaos: Professionals in Prediction Markets

  What does it take to make a living betting on politics? Can prediction markets offer insights about the future that other analyses cannot? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law. We discuss… Why some issues — like Romanian elections, the NYC mayoral race, or Zelenskyy’s outfit choices — can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume, Systematic biases in prediction markets, including why they overestimate the likelihood of a Taiwan contingency, What happens to prediction markets in the absence of insider trading regulations, Why prediction markets are still a solo endeavor, and what a profit-maximizing team of traders would look like, Bonus: How betting markets backfired on Romanian nationalists, what AI can teach you about betting, and other insights on winning from one of Domer’s contemporaries. Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link) This episode is brought to you by ElevenLabs. I’ve been on the hunt for years for the perfect reader app that puts AI audio at the center of its design. Over the past few months, the ElevenReader app has earned a spot on my iPhone's home screen and now gets about 30 minutes of use every day. I plow through articles using Eleven Reader’s beautiful voices and love having Richard Feynman read me AI news stories — as well as, you know, Matilda every once in a while, too. I’m also a power user of its bookmark feature, which the ElevenReader team added after I requested it on Twitter. ChinaTalk’s newsletter content even comes preloaded in the feed. Check out the ElevenReader app if you’re looking for the best mobile reader on the market. Oh, and by the way — if you ever need to transcribe anything, ElevenLabs’  Scribe model has transformed our workflow for getting transcripts out to you on the newsletter. It’s crossed the threshold from “95% good” to “99.5% amazing,” saving our production team hours every week. Check it out the next time you need something transcribed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Where Japan Goes Next

  Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack https://observingjapan.substack.com/ joins to discuss the latest Japanese election, how we got here, and what happens next. How Abe's assassination led to the LDP's three years of struggles What the latest results in the upper house election tell us about domestic Japanese politics What's the deal with big winners like Kōmeitō and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) How domestic dynamics tie into US-Japan and China-Japan relations Outtro Music: The Communist Party's 2025 Gender song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V59qOPTe62g&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%B1%E7%94%A3%E5%85%9A Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Trump and Japan

  Why has Japan fallen out of Trump’s good graces? Will Japan close a deal with the US before tariffs take effect? And how will the upcoming Japanese election impact relations? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi, a longtime observer of US-Japan relations and former advisor to the late Shinzo Abe. We discuss… Why 1970s trade competition is still impacting US-Japan relations today, and how Japan could create “Wow factor” when dealing with Donald Trump, How Shinzo Abe used golf, dinner parties, and history lessons to cultivate a close personal friendship with Trump, The roots of Japanese resolve in dealing with PRC aggression, The emergence of Russian disinformation surrounding the Japanese election, The political economy of the Japanese Self-Defence Force, and how Abe managed the controversy surrounding his reinterpretation of Article 9. Co-hosting today is Charles Litchfield of the Atlantic Council. Thanks to the US-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this episode. Outro music: Shinji Tanimura - Left Alone (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Xi Zhongxun: The Party's Interests Come First

  Joseph Torigian’s The Party’s Interest Comes First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping is a monumental scholarly achievement — easily a contender for one of the best China books of the decade. Joseph’s goal, in his own words, was to “shine as much light into the darkness of the past as possible” to understand the nature of authoritarian politics, and he succeeds beyond my wildest expectations. This biography gives me a feel for Chinese politics that I honestly thought I’d never have. It does an incredible job of digging deep to shed light on some of the most consequential moments in CCP history, as well as conveying what it was like to live as a senior official under Mao and Deng. Reading it was a powerful experience at both an intellectual and human level. We get memorable vignettes, like 15-year-old Xi Zhongxun attempting to assassinate a teacher, or General Peng Dehuai using his shoe to silence Xi Zhongxun’s snoring in their shared bunk. In this interview, we discuss: What we can learn about authoritarianism, the CCP, and China’s future from studying Xi’s father, Torigian’s methodology for uncovering hidden Party history, How the Party became an existential source of meaning, and how it weaponized suffering to paradoxically deepen political loyalty, The arc of Xi Zhongxun’s life — from a young revolutionary to key advocate of reform — and his role during Tiananmen, The interplay of family, love, and career under the all-encompassing shadow of the Party, The role of “Surrogate fathers” and patronage in navigating political ascent, How literature shaped China’s early revolutionaries, and even impacted the Party as we know it today. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, former ChinaTalk intern. Outro music: The Temptations - Papa Was A Rolling Stone (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• Wagner, Two Years On (Kamil on Coups and Power)

  How does Russia prevent uprisings, and what can other authoritarians learn from Moscow’s methods of coup control? For the second anniversary of the Wagner uprising, ChinaTalk interviewed London-based historian Kamil Galeev, who was also a classmate of Jordan’s at Peking University. We discuss… Why the Wagner Group rebelled in 2023, and why the coup attempt ultimately failed, How Wagner shifted the Kremlin’s assessment of internal political challengers, Similarities between post-Soviet doomerism and the American right, Historical examples of foreign policy inflienced by a victimhood mentality, Barriers to Chinese hegemony. Outro Music: Султан Лагучев - Любовь беда (YouTube Link) Today’s episode is brought to you by 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit that helps people find fulfilling careers that do good. 80,000 Hours — named for the average length of a career — has been doing in-depth research on AI issues for over a decade, producing reports on existential risk, scenarios for potential AI catastrophe, and examining the concrete steps you can take to help ensure AI development goes well. Their research suggests that working to reduce risks from advanced AI could be one of the most impactful ways to make a positive difference in the world. They provide free resources to help you contribute, including: Detailed career reviews for paths like AI safety technical research, AI governance, information security, and AI hardware, A job board with hundreds of high-impact opportunities, A podcast featuring deep conversations with experts like Carl Shulman, Ajeya Cotra, and Tom Davidson, Free, one-on-one career advising to help you find your best fit. To learn more and access their research-backed career guides, visit 80000hours.org/ChinaTalk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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