#19: Samo Burja - Superintelligence and History, Ideology, and 21st Century Philosophy
Samo Burja is a writer, historian, and political scientist, the founder of civilizational consulting firm Bismarck Analysis, and the editor-in-chief of governance futurism magazine Palladium.
Chapters
0:00 - Intro
1:06 - Implications of OpenAI o1
10:21 - Implications of superintelligence on history
35:06 - Palladium, Chinese technocracy, ideology, and media
1:00:44 - Best ideas, philosophers, and works of the past 20-30 years
Links
Samo’s Website: https://samoburja.com/
Bismarck Analysis: https://www.bismarckanalysis.com/
Palladium: https://www.palladiummag.com/
Bismarck’s Twitter: https://x.com/bismarckanlys
Palladium’s Twitter: https://x.com/palladiummag
Samo’s Twitter: https://x.com/samoburja
Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/19-samo-burja
More Episodes
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: https://x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com
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1:06:51
#18: Alec Stapp - The Institute for Progress, American Dynamism, and Fixing Governance
Alec Stapp is the co-founder and co-CEO of the Institute for Progress, a non-profit think tank dedicated to accelerating scientific, technological, and industrial progress.
Chapters
0:00 - Intro
1:13 - Why can’t smart people fix the Bay Area?
3:38 - How to get normal people on board with IFP
10:23 - How to get smart people into governance
15:55 - How IFP chose its priorities
21:56 - How will IFP avoid mission creep?
24:17 - How important is academia today?
26:03 - Would Alec press a button to fully open borders?
29:45 - How prepared are we for another pandemic?
33:16 - Why don’t easy wins happen?
36:17 - Is Biden’s spending good?
40:51 - How important is the repeal of Chevron deference?
43:23 - Are land value taxes good?
45:01 - “The Project” for AGI and AI Alignment
48:19 - Is globalism dying?
50:32 - Overrated or Underrated?
59:28 - The most overrated issue
1:00:26 - The most underrated issue
Links
Institute for Progress: ifp.org
“Progress Is A Policy Choice” founding essay by Alec Stapp and Caleb Watney: https://ifp.org/progress-is-a-policy-choice/
“How to Reuse the Operation Warp Speed Model” by Arielle D’Souza: https://ifp.org/how-to-reuse-the-operation-warp-speed-model/
“How to Be a Policy Entrepreneur in the American Vetocracy” by Alec Stapp: https://ifp.org/how-to-be-a-policy-entrepreneur-in-the-american-vetocracy/
“To Speed Up Scientific Progress, We Need to Understand Science Policy”: https://ifp.org/to-speed-up-scientific-progress-we-need-to-understand-science-policy/
“But Seriously, How Do We Make an Entrepreneurial State?” by Caleb Watney: https://ifp.org/how-do-we-make-an-entrepreneurial-state/
Construction Physics newsletter by Brian Potter: https://constructionphysics.substack.com/
Macroscience newsletter by Tim Hwang: https://www.macroscience.org/
Statecraft newsletter by Santi Ruiz: https://www.statecraft.pub/
IFP’s Twitter: x.com/IFP
Alec’s Twitter: x.com/AlecStapp
Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/18-alec-stapp
More Episodes
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: https://x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com
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1:03:06
#17: Casey Handmer - Terraform, solar, space, Hyperloop, and how to think
Casey Handmer is the founder and CEO of Terraform Industries and a physicist, immigrant, pilot, dad, solar enthusiast, Caltech physics PhD and former Hyperloop One levitation engineer and NASA JPL software system architect.
0:00 - Intro
1:40 - Why don’t other people do what Terraform does?
2:51 - Why is solar better than nuclear fusion?
5:27 - Could carbon emissions actually be good?
8:38 - Why isn’t anyone stopping global warming with sulfur?
13:20 - Can America build something like Terraform?
20:53 - Solar and nuclear
23:10 - Why not terraform Venus instead of Mars?
30:47 - Why did Casey work at NASA instead of SpaceX?
37:18 - Why is Elon the only person with multiple huge companies?
39:59 - Why didn’t the Hyperloop work?
42:26 - Tile the desert with solar
46:03 - How does solar change geopolitics?
48:30 - How does Casey manage his time?
53:24 - How do you develop first principles thinking?
56:28 - Favorite place Casey has traveled to
59:21 - Outro
Casey’s Blog: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/
- You Should Be Working On Hardware: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/08/25/you-should-be-working-on-hardware/
- The solar industrial revolution is the biggest investment opportunity in history: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2024/05/22/the-solar-industrial-revolution-is-the-biggest-investment-opportunity-in-history/
- Future of Energy Reading List: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/10/19/future-of-energy-reading-list/
- Elon Musk Is Not Understood: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2024/01/02/elon-musk-is-not-understood/
- Why High Speed Rail Hasn’t Caught On: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2022/10/11/why-high-speed-rail-hasnt-caught-on/
Casey’s Website: http://caseyhandmer.com/
Casey’s Twitter: https://x.com/cjhandmer
Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/
Terraform Blog: https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/
- Scaling Carbon Capture: https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2022/07/24/scaling-carbon-capture/
- Terraform Industries Whitepaper: https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2022/07/24/terraform-industries-whitepaper/
- Terraform Industries Whitepaper 2.0: https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2023/01/09/terraform-industries-whitepaper-2-0/
- Permitting Reform or Death: https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2023/11/10/permitting-reform-or-death/
Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/17-casey-handmer
More Episodes
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: https://x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com
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1:00:15
#16: Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen - Manifold, Manifund, Manifest, prediction markets, and EA
Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen are co-founders of Manifold Markets, an online play-money prediction market and competitive forecasting platform. Stephen currently serves on the company’s management, while Austin recently stepped down to start Manifund, a unique, open-source grant program. This video is not sponsored in any way by Manifold, Manifund, or Manifest - I just think they’re cool.
Chapters
0:00 - Intro
Part 1: Stephen Grugett
1:20 - Are prediction markets actually bad?
4:11 - Would Manifold use real money if allowed?
5:24 - How Manifold would use real money if allowed
6:08 - Would Manifold use crypto if allowed?
7:17 - Can you ever get long-term returns from prediction markets?
10:01 - Would subsidies ruin markets?
11:23 - Why Manifold beat real money on predicting the 2022 elections
16:00 - Would Stephen implement futarchy?
19:54 - Manifold Love
23:22 - Bet on Love
26:21 - Why Manifold is miscalibrated
29:06 - Insider trading and market manipulation
31:42 - Is it easier to make money on prediction markets or normal markets?
32:37 - Good prediction market UI
34:35 - Why should people trust market creators?
35:34 - Derivatives on prediction markets
37:20 - Stephen’s ginseng adventures
40:55 - Audience Q: why don’t Americans consume American ginseng?
41:35 - Audience Q: cancel culture and Richard Hanania
45:50 - Audience Q: why aren’t there more institutional investors in prediction markets?
47:33 - Audience Q: can journalists help resolve markets?
49:45 - Audience Q: is there any role for sweepstakes other than regulatory arbitrage?
Part 2: Austin Chen
51:14 - Are prediction markets insufficiently powerful?
54:22 - What prediction markets can do if not futarchy
55:36 - How Manifund was designed
59:35 - How Manifund chooses regrantors
1:00:49 - Why donate to Manifund?
1:03:09 - Does Dustin Moskovitz have too much power over EA?
1:04:29 - What Manifund would do differently with more money
1:05:52 - How Manifest gets so many interesting people
1:09:10 - How much did SBF’s fall damage EA?
1:10:04 - OpenAI
1:11:54 - Is this decade more important than other decades?
1:13:01 - Why aren’t more philanthropic organizations open?
1:15:35 - Manifund’s best projects
1:17:25 - How short AGI timelines would affect Manifund
1:19:21 - Audience Q: how Manifold ships fast
1:22:11 - Outro
Links
Manifold: https://manifold.markets
Manifund: https://manifund.com
Manifest: https://www.manifest.is
Manifold’s Twitter: https://x.com/manifoldmarkets
Manifund’s Twitter: https://x.com/manifund
Austin’s Twitter: https://x.com/akrolsmir
Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/16-stephen-grugett-and-austin-chen
More Episodes
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: https://x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com
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1:23:12
#15: Perry Metzger - Extropians, Nanotech, AI Optimism, and the Alliance for the Future
Perry Metzger is an entrepreneur, technology manager, consultant, computer scientist, early proponent of extropianism and futurism, and co-founder and chairman of the Alliance for the Future.
0:00 - Intro
0:47 - How Perry got into extropianism
7:04 - Is extropianism the same as e/acc?
9:38 - Why extropianism died out
12:59 - Eliezer Yudkowsky
17:19 - Perry and Eliezer’s Twitter beef
19:46 - TESCREAL, Baptists and bootleggers
22:34 - Why Eliezer became a doomer
28:39 - Is singularitarianism eschatology?
37:51 - Will nanotech kill us?
45:51 - What if the offense-defense balance favors offense?
53:03 - Instrumental convergence and agency
1:05:35 - How Alliance for the Future was founded
1:12:08 - Decels
1:15:52 - China
1:25:52 - Why a nonprofit lobbying firm?
1:28:36 - How to convince legislators
1:32:20 - Can the government do anything good on AI?
1:39:09 - The future of Alliance for the Future
1:44:22 - Outro
Perry’s Twitter: https://x.com/perrymetzger
AFTF’s Twitter: https://x.com/aftfuture
AFTF’s Manifesto: https://www.affuture.org/manifesto/
An Archaeological Dig Through The Extropian Archives: https://mtabarrok.com/extropia-archaeology
Alliance for the Future: https://www.affuture.org/
Donate to AFTF: affuture.org/donate
Sci-Fi Short Film “Slaughterbots”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU
Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/15-perry-metzger
More Episodes
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: https://x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com
Brasil