World Review with Ivo Daalder

Key Topics
The Venezuela oil deal is framed as a huge geopolitical gamble, with claims of 65 billion barrels and a U.S. stake in a private Venezuelan company.
Nahal Toosi explains why the deal is surrounded by legal, constitutional, and practical doubts, including questions about infrastructure, financing, and corruption.
Alex Ward argues the deal reflects a Trump-era foreign policy that treats oil and regime change as spoils of victory, not just strategic assets.
Shashank Joshi notes that Europeans see echoes of earlier resource anxieties, from Greenland to the Falklands, and worry about a broader collapse of principle in U.S. policy.
The panel raises the possibility that the Venezuela arrangement could create incentives to delay democratic transition and keep an anti-democratic regime in place.
The military segment focuses on the strain caused by extended deployments in the Middle East, especially the impact on munitions stockpiles, carrier availability, and long-term maintenance.
Joshi cites the depletion of Patriot interceptors and the ripple effects in Ukraine, where reduced interceptor capacity may be affecting defense against Russian missile attacks.
Toosi warns that the U.S. is simultaneously damaging its diplomatic, development, trade, and military advantages, leaving Congress and Pentagon leadership slow to respond.
On Russia, Alex Ward says Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip appears to be both a warning and a broader attempt to preserve a back-channel with Russian intelligence.
Joshi and Toosi discuss Russian hybrid risk, including the concern that Moscow may test NATO without triggering a classic Article 5-style response.
Links
Nahal Toosi - https://www.politico.com/staff/nahal-toosi
Alexander Ward - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/alexander-ward
Shashank Joshi - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/shashank-joshi/
Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topicas

Canada’s resistance to U.S. tariffs and what it means for Prime Minister Mark Carney

Whether economic pressure can succeed against Iran where military action has not

The weakening of U.S. leverage when allies are no longer willing to cooperate

How Trump’s approach is changing the transatlantic relationship

What fragmentation in Europe and the Gulf means for future global power

Links

Prashant Rao - https://www.semafor.com/author/prashant-rao

Matina Stevis-Gridneff - https://www.nytimes.com/by/matina-stevis-gridneff

Anton La Guardia - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/anton-la-guardia/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org

World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

Artificial intelligence as a world-changing technology

The promise and risks of AI

AI’s potential to improve science and medicine

Power, agency, and democracy in the AI era

The US-China race for AI dominance

China’s centralized approach to AI development

Europe’s role in AI governance and sovereignty

Why infrastructure and data centers matter for AI

The tension between innovation and regulation

Safety concerns from AI lab leaders themselves

How AI could affect jobs, markets, and national security

The need for transparency, accountability, and public oversight

How political backlash could shape future AI policy

The possibility of global AI guardrails and coordination

Links

Sebastian Mallaby — https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby

Evan Osnos — https://www.evanosnos.com/

Marietje Schaake — https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/people/marietje-schaake

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org

World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Show Notes

In this episode, Ivo Daalder is joined by Steve Erlanger, Christopher Miller, and Carla Anne Robbins for a wide-ranging conversation about three tests of U.S. power: Iran, Ukraine, and Cuba. The discussion begins with Iran, where the panel explores whether Tehran is outlasting Washington in a long war of patience and why sanctions and military threats may not produce the outcome the U.S. wants.The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where listeners hear how Ukrainians are adapting to modern warfare, why air defense remains critical, and how shortages of Patriot interceptors are reshaping the battlefield. The panel also examines the uncertainty around U.S. support and the broader lessons Kyiv is teaching the West about decentralized warfare.Finally, the episode looks at Cuba, where pressure, collapse talk, and regime-change logic collide with the reality of blackouts, shortages, and no clear post-collapse plan. Across all three cases, the central question remains: what happens when the U.S. escalates before deciding what success actually looks like?

Iran and Oman appear to have reached a tentative agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, but is it a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or simply a pause in a much larger geopolitical conflict? At the same time, Europe is grappling with renewed migration pressures in Ceuta and record-breaking heat that underscores the growing political and economic consequences of climate change.

Host Giles Whittell is joined by Adam Cancryn (CNN), Shona Murray (Euronews), and Kim Willsher (The Observer) to connect these stories and explore what they reveal about the shifting global landscape. The panel examines President Trump's approach to Iran, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential impact on global energy markets. They also discuss Europe's response to increasing migration, the political tensions within the European Union, and the ways climate-related disasters are becoming central to policy debates.

Together, they explore how international crises increasingly shape domestic politics, influence elections, and test alliances across Europe and the United States. From energy security and border policy to climate resilience and transatlantic relations, this episode provides the context behind the headlines and explains why these interconnected challenges will continue to shape global affairs in the months ahead.