ChinaPower

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The U.S.-China Tariff War: A Conversation with Dr. Scott Kennedy
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the recent escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and China. Dr. Kennedy starts with laying out the current situation, as it was on April 14th when the podcast was recorded, with the Trump administration placing 145% tariffs on China and China retaliating with roughly 125 % tariffs on the United States. Dr. Kennedy notes that this level of escalation is not what many experts expected and explains that many in China believe that the U.S. is using the tariffs to drive the U.S. and China into economic war and to confront and isolate China on all dimensions. Further, he explains that during the first Trump administration, tariffs were used mainly as a negotiation tool, yet in Trump’s second term, it seems tariffs are being used in an attempt to remake the global economic architecture. Dr. Kennedy believes that the tariffs are working to boost China’s international image and the current turbulence in U.S. domestic politics has worked to change domestic opinion in China on the United States. At the same time, China is trying to cast itself as a more predictable international actor. Dr. Kennedy believes that at some point, there will be a deal between the U.S. and China that will lower or remove the reciprocal tariffs. However, this deal will likely be superficial and will not address the key problems in this bilateral relationship. Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has been traveling to China for 37 years. His ongoing areas of focus include China’s innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of policy, popular, and academic venues, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Dr. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, which features voices from on the ground in China. From 2000 to 2014, Dr. Kennedy was a professor at Indiana University (IU), where he established the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business and was the founding academic director of IU’s China Office. Dr. Kennedy received a PhD in political science from George Washington University, an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a BA from the University of Virginia.
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33:27
U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Competition: A Conversation with Dr. Jeffrey Ding
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Jeffrey Ding joins us to discuss U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) competition and his book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Dr. Ding describes the framework he uses to understand the competition between the US and China on AI and explains that while many assume leading a technological competition comes from developing the next breakthrough invention, it should actually be centered around the diffusion of these technologies throughout their population of users. Technological leadership, therefore, depends on which country can best transfer and spread innovation from its top firms to the entire economy more effectively. Dr. Ding notes that China prioritizes an innovation-centric approach while neglecting broad-based technical and STEM education. He finds that the United States is better positioned than China to adopt and diffuse AI across a broad spectrum of sectors, given that more U.S. training institutions meet a quality baseline compared to China’s. Dr. Ding advises that since the United States is better positioned to diffuse AI technologies throughout its economy, it should focus on “running fast” rather than restricting China’s access to advanced technologies. Finally, Dr. Ding recommends that Washington focus on education policy, widening the base of AI engineers by increasing training sites, supporting public-private partnerships, and helping SMEs develop their AI capabilities. Dr. Jeffrey Ding is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University, and the author of Technology and the Rise of Great Power: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Previously, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, sponsored by Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. His research has been published or is forthcoming at European Journal of International Security, Foreign Affairs, Review of International Political Economy, and Security Studies, and his work has been cited in The Washington Post, The Financial Times, and other outlets. He also writes a weekly "ChinAI" newsletter, which features translations of Chinese conversations about AI development, to 12,000+ subscribers including the field's leading policymakers, scholars, and journalists. Dr. Ding holds a Ph.D in international relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes scholar.
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32:32
China’s Quest for Military Supremacy: A Conversation with Dr. Joel Wuthnow and Dr. Phil Saunders
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joel Wuthnow and Dr. Phil Saunders join us to discuss their new book on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA): “China’s Quest for Military Supremacy.” They begin by explaining the motivations behind their book and the growing demand for a comprehensive resource on the PLA among students, policymakers, and defense practitioners. Dr. Wuthnow then outlines how the PLA has entered a “new era” under Xi Jinping, characterized by greater confidence, structural reforms, and an expanding operational reach. Dr. Saunders then highlights how the PLA is increasingly being used to shape the Indo-Pacific region, citing China’s recent live-fire exercises near Australia and New Zealand as an example of its more assertive posture. Both experts also delve into key challenges facing the PLA, from Xi Jinping’s efforts to tighten party control to persistent corruption and political reliability issues. They also assess how the PLA’s rigid command structure and political indoctrination could undermine effectiveness in a crisis. Finally, the two experts assess the PLA’s progress becoming more joint, its nuclear modernization efforts, and the broader implications for U.S. and regional security. They conclude by discussing their views on how a second Trump administration could impact PLA behavior and China's strategic calculations. Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is Director of the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs. Dr. Saunders previously worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, where he served as Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003. He also serves as an adjunct instructor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
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46:11
U.S., China, and Economic Warfare: A Conversation with Mr. Edward Fishman
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Edward Fishman joins us to discuss the evolving landscape of economic warfare and the United States’ strategic use of economic tools against China and other global actors. Drawing from his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, he explains how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls have become central to great power competition and explores how today’s hyper-globalized economy has created chokepoints—critical areas where one state holds a dominant position, allowing for few alternatives. He examines the most potent weapons in the U.S. economic arsenal, and how their use—or mere threat—can compel adversaries to shift behavior. Mr. Fishman provides an insider’s account of the Trump administration’s economic warfare strategy against China and the rationale behind its approach. He also analyzes China’s dual-track approach to economic warfare, the Biden administration’s use of economic warfare against Russia, and the role of U.S. firms in carrying out Washington’s policies. He concludes with recommendations for how the U.S. can refine its strategy to more effectively compete with China. Edward Fishman is a leading authority on economic statecraft and sanctions. He teaches at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy. He also advises companies on geopolitical strategy and invests in early-stage technology startups. Previously, he served at the U.S. State Department as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, at the Pentagon as an advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and at the U.S. Treasury Department as special assistant to the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. His writing and analysis are regularly featured by outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Politico, and NPR. He holds a BA in History from Yale, an MPhil in International Relations from Cambridge, and an MBA from Stanford.
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41:15
U.S.-China Subnational Diplomacy: A Conversation with Dr. Kyle Jaros and Dr. Sara Newland
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Kyle Jaros and Dr. Sara Newland join us to explore the evolution of U.S.-China subnational diplomacy. They begin by examining the history and current landscape of US-China relations at the subnational level. They point out specifically that throughout the last five years, U.S.-China relations at the subnational level have become increasingly politicized. Dr. Newland explains that we are seeing a trickledown effect of local politicians weighing in on Taiwan and China issues, setting up local caucuses that mimic those in congress and notes that these actions are contributing to increased Sinophobia within U.S. local communities. Dr. Jaros further explains that in recent years, longstanding subnational ties with China have started winding down, with state and local leaders more hesitant to visit China, meet with Chinese officials, or welcome Chinese investments. They note this hesitation originates both from federal policy and from an increasingly hawkish stance at the sub-national level. However, both guests underscore that there are still areas of cooperation between U.S. and China on the local level, with one example being student exchange programs through universities. Dr. Jaros notes that it is important to continue human to human contacts with China and to be careful not to dehumanize the other side. Finally, Dr. Newland stresses the importance of the U.S. federal government creation of resources to educate local leaders on how to engage effectively with Chinese leaders. Kyle A. Jaros is an associate professor at the University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs, where he studies the politics of urban and regional development and governance and subnational foreign affairs, with a particular focus on China. He is the author of China’s Urban Champions: The Politics of Spatial Development and has contributed extensively to leading China studies and social science journals. Dr. Jaros holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in political science from Harvard University and an A.B. in public and international affairs, along with a certificate in Chinese language and culture, from Princeton University. He also earned a graduate certificate in Chinese studies from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center. Sara Newland is associate professor of government at Smith College. She is a scholar of local politics in China and Taiwan, with a research focus on how local officials operate both as domestic policymakers and as participants in international relations. Her work on local governance and public service provision has been featured in The China Quarterly and Governance, and her recent research explores subnational diplomacy, particularly the role of state and local officials in shaping U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. Dr. Newland holds a Ph.D. and M.A. from UC Berkeley and a B.A. from Wellesley College. Together, Dr. Jaros and Dr. Newland spent the past year as visiting fellows at the Truman Center for National Policy on a project examining city-level US-China relations. The white paper they have authored based on this research will be released in late February. They are also co-authoring a book on U.S.-China subnational diplomacy in an era of growing great power competition.
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