Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

• Seeing through cognitive traps (with Alex Edmans)

  Read the full transcript here. How do we distinguish correlation from causation in organizational success? How common is it to mistake luck or data mining for genuine effects in research findings? What are the challenges in interpreting ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) criteria? Why is governance considered distinct from environmental and social impact? How should uncertainty in climate science affect our policy choices? Are regulation and free markets really at odds, or can they be mutually reinforcing? How does economic growth generated by markets fund social programs and environmental protection? How does “publish or perish” culture shape scientific research and incentives? What psychological and neuroscientific evidence explains our tendency toward confirmation bias? Will LLMs exacerbate or mitigate cognitive traps? How do biases shape popular narratives about diversity and corporate purpose? How can we balance vivid stories with rigorous data to better understand the world?Alex Edmans FBA FAcSS is Professor of Finance at London Business School. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar, was previously a tenured professor at Wharton, and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley. He serves as non-executive director of the Investor Forum and on Morgan Stanley’s Institute for Sustainable Investing Advisory Board, Novo Nordisk’s Sustainability Advisory Council, and Royal London Asset Management’s Responsible Investment Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the British Academy and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences.Links:Alex’s TEDx TalkAlex’s books: May Contain Lies and Grow The PieAlex’s BlogA double bind in collective learning (article) StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsIgor Scaldini — Marketing ConsultantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

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• The most important century (with Holden Karnofsky)

  Has society reached ‘peak progress’? Can we sustain the level of economic growth that technology has enabled over the last century? Have researchers plucked the last of science's "low-hanging fruit?" Why did early science innovators have outsized impact per capita? As fields mature, why does per-researcher output fall? Can a swarm of AI systems materially accelerate research? What does exponential growth hide about the risk of collapse? Will specialized AI outcompete human polymaths? Is quality of life still improving - and how confident are we in those measures? Is it too late to steer away from the attention economy? Can our control over intelligent systems scale as we develop their power? Will AI ever be capable of truly understanding human values? And if we reach that point, will it choose to align itself?Holden Karnofsky is a Member of Technical Staff at Anthropic, where he focuses on the design of the company's Responsible Scaling Policy and other aspects of preparing for the possibility of highly advanced AI systems in the future. Prior to his work with Anthropic, Holden led several high-impact organizations as the co-founder and co-executive director of charity evaluator GiveWell, and one of three Managing Directors of grantmaking organization Open Philanthropy. You can read more about ideas that matter to Holden at his blog Cold Takes.Further reading:Holden's "most important century" seriesResponsible scaling policiesHolden's thoughts on sustained growthStaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsIgor Scaldini — Marketing ConsultantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

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• Should we try to live forever? (with Ariel Zeleznikow-Johnston)

  Why do humans live as long as they do? Since whales have literally tons more cells than humans, why don't they develop cancers at much higher rates than humans? What can the genetic trade-offs we observe in other organisms teach us about increasing human longevity? Will we eventually be able to put people into some kind of stasis? What is the state of such technology? What counts as being dead? How much brain damage can a person sustain before they're no longer the same person? Is lowering temperature the same thing as slowing time? What does it mean to turn organic tissue into "glass"? Would clones of me be the same person as me? How should we feel about death? What is "palliative" philosophy? Why are people generally supportive of curing diseases but less supportive of increasing human lifespan? Will humans as a species reach 2100 A.D.?Dr. Ariel Zeleznikow-Johnston is a neuroscientist at Monash University, Australia, where he investigates methods for characterising the nature of conscious experiences. In 2019, he obtained his PhD from The University of Melbourne, where he researched how genetic and environmental factors affect cognition. His research interests range from the decline, preservation, and rescue of cognitive function at different stages of the lifespan, through to comparing different people's conscious experience of colour. By contributing to research that clarifies the neurobiological, cognitive, and philosophical basis of what it is to be a person, he hopes to accelerate the development of medical infrastructure that will help prevent him and everyone else from dying. Read his writings on Substack, follow him on Bluesky or X / Twitter, email him at [email protected], or learn more about him on his website.Further readingThe Future Loves You: How and Why We Should Abolish Death, by Ariel Zeleznikow-JohnstonStaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsIgor Scaldini — Marketing ConsultantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

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• Trying to convince Spencer to be a utilitarian (with Tyler John)

  Read the full transcript here. How has utilitarianism evolved from early Chinese Mohism to the formulations of Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill? On what points did Bentham and Mill agree and disagree? How has utilitarianism shaped Effective Altruism? Does utilitarianism only ever evaluate actions, or does it also evaluate people? Does the "veil of ignorance" actually help to build the case for utilitarianism? What's wrong with just trying to maximize expected value? Does acceptance of utilitarianism require acceptance of moral realism? Can introspection change a person's intrinsic values? How does utilitarianism intersect with artificial intelligence?Tyler John is a Visiting Scholar at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence and an advisor to several philanthropists. His research interests are in leveraging philanthropy for the common good, ethics for advanced AI, and international AI security. Tyler was previously the Head of Research and Programme Officer in Emerging Technology Governance at Longview Philanthropy, where he advised philanthropists on over $60m in grants related to AI safety, biosecurity, and long-term economic growth trajectories. Tyler earned his PhD in philosophy from Rutgers University — New Brunswick, where he researched mechanism design to promote the interests of future generations, political legitimacy, rights and consequentialism, animal ethics, and the foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis. Follow him on X / Twitter at @tyler_m_john.Further readingAn Introduction to UtilitarianismIntrinsic Values Test by Clearer ThinkingBlue Dot Impact80,000 Hours StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsIgor Scaldini — Marketing ConsultantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

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• A conversation with an autistic person (with Megan Neff)

  Read the full transcript here. What does autism feel like from the inside? Do autistic people lack empathy? What is context insensitivity? What are some ways special interests can manifest in autistic people? What are some less common ways stimming can manifest? What are the main components of autism? Can you be diagnosed with autism if you meet all the diagnostic criteria but didn't have any symptoms in childhood? Is autism only a problem in relation to neurotypical people? Is there a link between IQ and autism? What does the DSM fail to capture about autism? Is there some underlying commonality among all the seemingly disparate symptoms of autism? How have the label and diagnosis changed as the field of psychology has grown and improved? Thinking about autism as a spectrum is better than thinking about it as a binary, but is there an even better way to think about it? How does gender intersect with autism? How does ADHD intersect with autism? How valid is self-diagnosis? How can you better interact with autistic people in your life? What should you do if you think you might have autism?Dr. Megan Anna Neff is a clinical psychologist, author, and founder of Neurodivergent Insights. She is the author of Self-Care for Autistic People and The Autistic Burnout Workbook. Dr. Neff contributes regularly to Psychology Today and has been featured in outlets like CNN, PBS, ABC, and The Los Angeles Times. After discovering her own neurodivergence at age 37, she became passionate about raising awareness of non-stereotypical presentations of autism and ADHD. Through Neurodivergent Insights, she creates educational and wellness resources for the neurodivergent community, while also co-hosting the Divergent Conversations podcast. Learn more about her at her website, neurodivergentinsights.org, or email her at [email protected] reading"How Do I Know if I’m Autistic in Adulthood?" by Megan NeffDivergent Conversations (podcast)Episode 48: “What is Autism?” (Part 1): Understanding Autistic CommunicationEmbrace AutismIs This Autism? StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsIgor Scaldini — Marketing ConsultantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

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