Forward Guidance

A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?

This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.

We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead

08:28 Rate Volatility Returns

13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen

18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight

26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed

35:55 The Summer Market Setup

42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test

46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost

53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt

01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.

Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.

We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a meaningful repricing of risk assets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:22 Warsh Kills Forward Guidance

05:57 Markets Price The Warsh Fed

11:19 The New Fed Task Forces

17:10 Impact On Rate Volatility

19:12 Warsh’s Balance Sheet Fight

23:13 Rethinking Fed Data

27:46 Weighing AI Productivity

31:52 Rethinking Inflation Target

36:17 Warsh’s Hawkish Market Signal

FOLLOW JOSEPH

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/josephwang

› Website – https://fedguy.com/

› YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.

Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks

Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto

Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.

This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.

We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook

08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap

12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds

17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed

21:48 Mag Loses Leadership

28:54 The AI Capex Risk

30:17 The Best Rates Trade

34:20 Policy Powers The AI War

38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?

43:52 The AI Access Divide

50:34 The Centralization Trade

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.

Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.

We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test

04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role

11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee?

14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak

17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix

23:30 What's The Policy Plan?

27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game

34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global

40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold

47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing

FOLLOW LUKE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen

› FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.