Forward Guidance

This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?

(07:53) The AI Productivity Boom

(14:28) An Update On Market Structure

(18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling

(36:21) How To Trade This Market

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FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

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Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off

(14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?

(29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive

(38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs

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FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

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RESOURCES

› https://docsend.com/view/62t43sp222nsvqzg

› Dell Children's Donation – ⁠https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061⁠

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Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control.

This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop.

We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser

05:55 Monster Earnings And AI

07:59 Is This A Bubble?

12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel

14:56 Frothy AI Positioning

20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail

27:17 Main Street Is Breaking

31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets

34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl?

39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI?

42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal

47:02 Populism Against AI Politics

51:55 $10k Donation Goal

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing

› Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.

We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:54 The Real Inflation Story

06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold

08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken

12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks

14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion

19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate

22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk

26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data

29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming?

36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed

45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy

48:14 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people.

This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage.

We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels

07:38 Trading Oil Volatility

13:45 Oil, China, And AI

17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports

20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation?

24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping

26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime

30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight

33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization

40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market

44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs

47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.