Forward Guidance

In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Brent Donnelly: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Make FX Great Again (01:51) Tariff Expectations (07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar (13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (14:39) The Fed Reaction Function (17:27) Equity Valuations (19:23) FX Framework (28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (29:19) Carry Trades (34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises (42:17) Canada & CAD/USD (47:21) China & Yuan (53:40) Long-Term Dollar View (56:55) Learn More About Brent’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss what the latest CPI data means for markets, whether we’re in the early stages of the credit cycle, and trading Inauguration day. We also delve into the crypto reserve debate, the potential BOJ rate hike, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UR_BWMbyzFgxqrCEZ6DjhGK36TDJQEjX/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:44) CPI & Inflation (09:03) Yields, Positioning, & Market Whipsaw (12:27) Growth Debate (22:01) Ads (23:16) Equity Contra-Indicators (27:54) Inauguration Day: Buy Or Sell The News? (31:14) Crypto Reserve Debate (35:11) Bonds Recycling Into Other Assets (37:05) Fiat Debasement & Trump (39:23) Japan & BOJ Rate Hike (45:20) Nasdaq Vs Small Caps __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) 2025 Outlook (05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market (11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness (16:29) Housing Market & Employment (23:43) Impact Of LA Fires (26:48) Ads (28:45) December SEP (32:25) Rate Cut Expectations (34:56) Inflation Overview (39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation (43:12) Equity Valuations (50:19) Growth Vs Value (52:59) Long Bond Trade (56:23) Commodities Outlook (57:41) Learn More About Warren’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:55) December Jobs Report (06:16) Other Labor Market Data (07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over? (11:24) DAS 2025 (14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025? (20:57) Global Margin Call (27:10) Dollar Dilemma (29:58) Global Bond Yields (33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics (35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening (37:25) Crypto Politics (39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (40:05) Ads (42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't) (45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria (49:12) NFP Prediction (49:52) TLT & Positioning (52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis (57:05) Yield Solutions (59:59) 2-Year Trade (01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration (01:04:22) Public Spending Problem (01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything (01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.