Forward Guidance

• The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw (09:48) Grayscale Ad (10:27) Market Structure & Positioning (15:14) Debating the AI Race (23:59) Gameplan for Next Year (31:31) Grayscale Ad (32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision (38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities (42:18) Oil & Energy Policy (46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy (55:17) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser

  In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy! __ Follow Jordi: https://x.com/jvisserlabs Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (05:15) Why Tech is Breaking Old Macro (12:04) Grayscale Ad (12:41) How to Think About AI Disruptions (19:14) Transition From FCF to Debt-Funded (25:04) .Com Comparisons & Infinite AI Demand (29:05) The Genesis Mission (31:10) Grayscale Ad (31:58) The New Reality of Today’s Markets (36:47) Deflation vs Inflation Risks (39:58) Mike Green’s Viral Post (41:52) Debt Doom Loop & Curing All Diseases (45:35) Fed Buying Corporate Bonds (47:25) Bitcoin’s Digital Moat (54:25) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex (09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot (12:05) Grayscale Ad (12:45) Private Credit Warnings (14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup (19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed (22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates (27:12) Grayscale Ad (28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade (36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner (48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins (53:52) Political Reflections (58:54) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows

  In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle (05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth (09:43) Grayscale Ad (10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot (13:41) Recession Odds (16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy (20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7 (21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics (25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (29:28) Grayscale Ad (30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t) (35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints (40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets (47:21) View on U.S. Equities (50:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1drPbriNOF50E3o6qdKikbqIYQy4qAuc6/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Shutdown Fallout (03:59) Hawkish Fed Speeches (07:52) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (12:14) Grayscale Ad (12:53) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (Con’t) (15:51) Warning Signs for Society (18:58) Hawkish Fed Pivot (21:32) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (28:14) Grayscale Ad (29:02) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (Con’t) (31:04) Policy Missteps & Persistent Inflation (32:00) Bitcoin, Decentralization & the Future of Money (33:10) The 2026 Acceleration Playbook (36:15) Widening Inequality & Generational Divide (44:11) Centralization, Fragility, & Systemic Risks (49:24) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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