Forward Guidance

In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.

Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks

Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto

Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.

This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.

We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook

08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap

12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds

17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed

21:48 Mag Loses Leadership

28:54 The AI Capex Risk

30:17 The Best Rates Trade

34:20 Policy Powers The AI War

38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?

43:52 The AI Access Divide

50:34 The Centralization Trade

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.

Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.

We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test

04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role

11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee?

14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak

17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix

23:30 What's The Policy Plan?

27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game

34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global

40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold

47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing

FOLLOW LUKE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen

› FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion.

David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics.

We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro

06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity

09:58 Supply Chains Shift To Resilience

13:13 Consumer Resilience Mystery

19:19 What Funds The Consumer?

22:44 Why The Recession Never Comes

25:55 The Fed Rethinking Hikes

32:19 Warsh Inheriting Inflation Fight

38:07 Bonds, Equities And Rates

41:17 Can Stocks Ignore Rates?

44:21 The Korea Trade

FOLLOW DAVID

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/EconstratPB

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?

(07:53) The AI Productivity Boom

(14:28) An Update On Market Structure

(18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling

(36:21) How To Trade This Market

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FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

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Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.