The Rational Reminder Podcast

• Episode 364 – Martijn Cremers: Is the Conventional Wisdom on Active Management Wrong?

  In this episode, we’re joined by Martijn Cremers, Dean of the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame and co-author of the groundbreaking 2009 paper that introduced the concept of Active Share. Martijn brings fresh nuance to the long-standing debate over active versus passive management, challenging decades of conventional wisdom built on the foundational 1997 Carhart paper. With his comprehensive research, Martijn argues that dismissing active management may be overly simplistic—especially in less efficient markets like bonds, small-cap equities, or emerging markets. Together, we explore how empirical support for passive superiority has softened in recent decades, the overlooked structural flaws in performance benchmarks, and how closet indexing quietly undermines the active management space. Martijn outlines the three pillars of active success—skill, conviction, and opportunity—and makes a compelling case for patient, high active share strategies that persist over time.  Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:24) Introduction to Martijn Cremers and his influential work on Active Share (0:04:15) Breaking down the “conventional wisdom” on active management post-Carhart (0:07:19) Why passive benchmarks like Fama-French factors may create misleading comparisons (0:09:38) Reviewing persistence of outperformance in high active share funds (0:12:40) Evaluating Sharpe’s arithmetic and how market evolution challenges zero-sum assumptions (0:15:58) The long-term decline of active funds and the influence of concentrated indexes (0:18:30) The paradox of skill, ETFs with high active share, and the survival of active managers (0:21:18) Revisiting active management in underexplored asset classes: bonds, small caps, emerging markets (0:23:20) The definition and calculation of Active Share (0:25:01) Active Share vs. Tracking Error: complementary tools, not substitutes (0:27:22) What level of active share signals closet indexing? Why 60–70% is the key threshold (0:30:49) Performance persistence and why combining high Active Share with patience matters (0:34:05) The concept of the “active fee” and how much you’re really paying for stock selection (0:36:51) Why fund size and team changes can erode active share (0:38:17) Three pillars of successful active management: skill, conviction, and opportunity (0:40:13) The challenge of being a patient manager in an impatient world (0:42:25) How Active Share was received by academics and practitioners (0:44:18) Responding to critics: the 2016 FAJ paper “Deactivating Active Share” (0:46:56) Why dispersion in high active share funds can enhance portfolio diversification (0:49:21) Who should pursue high active share strategies—and who shouldn’t (0:51:40) Active share in fixed income: Why passive bond funds are often far from passive (0:53:51) Key structural differences between equity and bond indexing (0:55:25) Why bond index funds have high active share and hidden tracking error (0:57:36) Why positive skewness (a key argument for equity indexing) doesn’t apply to bonds (0:59:22) Performance of active bond funds: modest but consistent outperformance (1:00:02) Why active bond funds remain popular: liquidity, trading frictions, and benchmark limitations   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://ca.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Episode 316: Andrew Chen - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/316 Episode 212: Ralph S.J. Koijen - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/212 Episode 220: Jonathan Berk & Jules Van Binsbergen - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/220 Episode 346: Hendrick Bessembinder - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/346   Papers From Today’s Episode: https://zbib.org/2224f8de634743fb8f33a68009b8fcff  

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• Episode 363 - The (Underappreciated) Risk of Individual Stocks

  What if holding just a few “winning” stocks is riskier than it seems? In this episode, Ben and Cameron explore the hidden dangers of concentrated portfolios and unpack the data that makes a strong case for diversification. Drawing from research by Hendrik Bessembinder, J.P. Morgan, and others, Ben lays out the harsh reality behind individual stock returns: the odds are stacked against long-term success. From skewed return distributions and catastrophic losses to behavioral traps like the endowment effect and familiarity bias, this conversation breaks down why most stock pickers lose—and why diversification remains the only “free lunch” in investing. Whether you're holding onto a single stock for tax reasons, overconfidence, or just inertia, this episode is a must-listen reality check on portfolio risk. They also share thoughts on advisor adoption of indexing, the slow shift in Canada, and how a Rational Reminder YouTube video sparked debate between stock pickers and indexers in the comments section. For anyone navigating concentrated positions—voluntarily or otherwise—this episode is packed with data-driven insight and real-world takeaways. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00) Welcome to Episode 363: catching up in person and the value of working together in-office. (1:07) Why advisors are slow to adopt indexing—and how culture, compensation, and inertia play a role. (2:58) Demand is rising: indexing awareness among young advisors and investors continues to grow. (4:08) Main topic: The hidden risks of individual stock concentration. (5:40) The Nortel example: taxes, timing, and the illusion of "free" stock. (6:51) Individual stocks are far riskier than most people realize—especially recent winners. (9:09) Most investors hold between 3–7 stocks. Why that’s a problem. (11:29) Portfolio concentration = fugu prepared by an amateur chef. (12:45) Diversification reduces risk without reducing expected return. (14:04) JP Morgan’s “Agony & Ecstasy” report: 44% of stocks suffer catastrophic losses. (16:26) Why investors overweight the chance of a big win and underweight the risk of losses. (17:07) The reality of skewed returns: a few big winners, many losers. (24:35) The 2023 study on concentrated stock positions: recent top performers underperform the most. (28:40) How many stocks do you need for real diversification? Way more than 20–30. (32:00) Wealth dispersion and the long-term consequences of concentration. (35:24) Why even 100-stock portfolios only beat the market 47.5% of the time. (36:55) Taxes, control, and psychological hurdles make diversifying even harder. (38:14) Diversification depends on your preference for risk and skewness—but beware the odds. (39:08) Behind the scenes: Ben’s research process and content development workflow. (43:14) Ben’s guest appearance on Morningstar’s The Long View. (44:00) Meetups, t-shirt scarcity, and what’s next for PWL outreach.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/` Episode 346: Hendrik Bessembinder - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/346 Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘The Agony & The Ecstasy’ - https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eotm/the-agony-the-ecstasy ‘Why Index Works’ - https://www.top1000funds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Why-indexing-works.pdf ‘Underperformance of Concentrated Stock Positions’ - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4541122 ‘How Many Stocks Should You Own?’ - https://ndvr.com/journal/how-many-stocks-should-you-own ‘Fund Concentration: A Magnifier of Manager Skill’ - https://discovery.researcher.life/article/fund-concentration-a-magnifier-of-manager-skill/67964b7ccc9d3cae87761f6ef19241a0

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• Episode 362 – AMA #7

  What if the hardest part of investing isn’t building a portfolio—but sticking to it? In this AMA edition of the Rational Reminder podcast, Ben Felix and Dan Bortolotti tackle listener questions ranging from sustainable retirement withdrawals to the dangers of structured products, with plenty of philosophical insights on risk, behavior, and financial planning. The episode opens with a deep dive into the 4% rule, exploring how time horizon, asset allocation, and global data can shift the definition of “safe.” They also explore the behavioral challenges of the “boring middle” of investing and why consistency may be the greatest alpha. Other standout segments include a sharp critique of bank-sold structured notes, an evidence-based takedown of trend following, and a fascinating discussion on the long-term impact of demographic shifts and index investing. Throughout, Ben and Dan blend technical insight with practical wisdom and academic research, delivering a thoughtful and entertaining conversation for both DIY investors and those working with advisors.   Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:07) What the latest data says about safe withdrawal rates, especially for early retirees with 100% equity exposure. (0:08:45) How variable vs. fixed withdrawals affect outcomes—and the trade-offs retirees must consider. (0:17:01) The behavioral risks of the “boring middle” and how automation or advice helps investors stay disciplined. (0:26:13) Reflections on market crashes—why hindsight downplays the emotional reality of volatility. (0:33:27) Commission conflicts: Why bank advisors push structured notes and the incentives behind them. (0:44:22) Education vs. malice: Are bad financial advisors untrained, conflicted, or both? (0:49:08) Are structured notes ever justified? (Spoiler: very rarely.) (0:56:44) Trend following: Legitimate strategy or fancy market timing? Examining the live track records. (1:02:52) Diversifying your life like a portfolio: Applying the PERMA model to personal growth. (1:10:18) The one use of leverage that actually makes sense—and why most others don’t. (1:14:20) Will aging demographics crash ETF markets? What the data and theory suggest. (1:19:02) Why even complex macro trends don’t justify deviating from a simple, low-cost investment plan.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://ca.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Episode 261: Felix Fattinger - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/261 Episode 314: Valentin Haddad - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/314 Episode 302: Michael Green - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/302 Episode 222: Cassie Holmes - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/222 Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/278 Episode 212: Ralph S.J. Koijen - https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/212 Episode 322: Marco Sammon — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/322Marco Sammon  

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• Episode 361: Alex Edmans - Finding "The Truth" in Economics, Finance, and Life

  Today, Ben plays lone host for the first time as we welcome Alex Edmans to the show. Alex is a Professor of Finance at London Business School as well as an accomplished speaker, author, investment banker, and financial advisor. To start, Alex describes his involvement in the formation of a new law in the UK before defining ‘misinformation’ and where confirmation bias fits in. Then, we assess the impact severity of confirmation bias, biased search versus biased interpretation, the role of generative AI in confirmation bias, and the levels of susceptibility within confirmation bias. We also explore the role of black-and-white thinking in concealing the truth, Alex’s Ladder of Misinference as seen in May Contain Lies, the 10,000-hour rule and other famous statements of misinformation, and how the idea of a narrative may influence how people interpret and misinterpret facts. We end with how to guard against the plague of data mining in research, data as evidence and what this implies for evidence in financial economics, and Alex shares helpful advice for determining truth in any circumstance.   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:27) Alex Edmans walks us through the erroneous evidence that influenced a new UK law. (0:07:13) Misinformation; living in a post-truth world; and where confirmation bias fits in. (0:12:06) The severity of confirmation bias, and biased search versus biased interpretation. (0:18:19) Unpacking generative AI and the susceptibility thresholds of confirmation bias.   (0:21:25) How black-and-white thinking makes the truth more elusive. (0:25:40) Understanding Alex’s Ladder of Misinference as seen in May Contain Lies. (0:28:17) Debunking the 10,000-hour rule and other enduring statements of misinformation. (0:38:10) The second step on the Ladder of Misinference: Why facts are not data. (0:42:42) How the idea of a narrative influences how people interpret or misinterpret facts. (0:44:25) Why data is not evidence, and examining the plague of data mining in research. (0:48:36) Guarding against data mining and the consequences of investing with misinformation.   (0:53:01) When data is evidence, and what this says about evidence in financial economics. (0:55:49) Why evidence may not be proof. (0:59:14) Practical advice for seeking the truth for important decisions and in everyday life.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Alex Edmans — https://alexedmans.com/  Alex Edmans on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/aedmans  Alex Edmans on X — https://x.com/aedmans  London Business School — https://www.london.edu/  Fulbright Fellows | MIT — https://ir.mit.edu/projects/fulbright-fellows/  Atkins — https://www.atkins.com/  ‘Matthew Walker's “Why We Sleep” Is Riddled with Scientific and Factual Errors’ — https://guzey.com/books/why-we-sleep/  ‘Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance | Angela Lee Duckworth | TED’ — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H14bBuluwB8    Books From Today’s Episode:   May Contain Lies — https://maycontainlies.com/  Grow the Pie — https://mybook.to/Grow-the-Pie Outliers — https://www.amazon.com/Outliers-Story-Success-Malcolm-Gladwell/dp/0316017930  Why We Sleep — https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34466963-why-we-sleep  Start with Why — https://www.amazon.com/Start-Why-Leaders-Inspire-Everyone/dp/1591846447  Grit — https://www.amazon.com/Grit-Passion-Perseverance-Angela-Duckworth/dp/1501111108    Papers From Today’s Episode:   ‘CEO-Employees Pay Ratio, Employees’ Productivity and Firm Performance: Evidence from UK’ — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/391787593_CEO-Employees_pay_ratio_employees'_productivity_and_firm_performance_evidence_from_UK  ‘A Theory of Fair CEO Pay’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4294589 

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• Episode 360 – Gerard O'Reilly: The Components of Net Returns

  What if “just buying the market” isn’t the end of the story? In this episode, we are joined by Gerard O’Reilly, Co-CEO and Co-CIO of Dimensional Fund Advisors, for a deep dive into what really drives net investment returns. Gerard returns to the Rational Reminder podcast to explain the key principles that differentiate Dimensional’s approach from traditional indexing—and why implementation, flexibility, and detail matter so much more than investors might think. We explore the concept of hidden costs in index investing, how index reconstitution and trading frictions erode returns, and the nuanced decisions that shape a market portfolio: defining the market, excluding low-returning stocks, optimizing tax efficiency, and more. Gerard breaks down how Dimensional’s rules-based, evidence-backed process improves outcomes through smart exclusions (like IPOs and high asset-growth firms), precise trading, securities lending, and better handling of corporate actions. From the dangers of chasing low fees to the surprising benefits of thoughtful execution, this conversation is a masterclass in next-level investing.   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:07) Why Gerard was invited back: Dimensional’s approach to hidden costs and net returns. (0:02:38) Looking beyond “index good, fees bad”—why investors should dig deeper. (0:04:21) Gerard’s background: From Caltech rocket scientist to Dimensional co-CEO. (0:06:22) How Dimensional differs from market-cap weighted index funds. (0:08:42) Four components of net returns: Two increase returns, two decrease them. (0:12:45) Defining the market: Free float, liquidity thresholds, and dynamic inclusion. (0:17:52) How small-cap index definitions can create return differentials as high as 10%. (0:22:03) What securities Dimensional excludes—and why: low-profitability growth, high asset growth, IPOs, and REITs. (0:29:26) Why IPOs are excluded for 6–12 months and the mechanics behind inclusion. (0:33:16) Why Dimensional’s exclusions aren’t like traditional active management. (0:35:09) The “Great British Bake-Off” analogy: baking better portfolios with the same ingredients. (0:38:13) How securities lending boosts returns—and how Dimensional does it better. (0:42:09) Managing corporate actions (like M&A) to reduce cash drag. (0:45:18) How Dimensional deals with buybacks and new share issuance.  (0:47:29) Momentum, short-term reversals, and securities lending fees as trading signals. (0:50:36) Why Dimensional may lend out stocks that have negative momentum. (0:52:42) How trading costs affect net returns and Dimensional’s execution edge. (0:56:06) Hidden costs of indexing: Index fund rebalancing and price impact. (1:03:19) Why focusing solely on fees is misleading—and what “value for service” really means. (1:06:18) DFUS: A case study of Dimensional’s market series outperforming index funds. (1:08:44) How Dimensional builds portfolios with intentional tilts toward higher expected returns. (1:12:35) What excites Gerard: Expanding access, ETF innovations, and global growth.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Gerard O’Reilly — https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/bios/gerard-k-oreilly Dimensional Fund Advisors: https://www.dimensional.com/ Episode 322: Marco Sammon — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/322Marco Sammon  Episode 198: Gerard O’Reilly — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/198

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