The Rational Reminder Podcast

• Episode 386: Is anyone doing dd? with Aravind Sithamparapillai

  What happens when alternative investments shift from niche products to the industry's go-to value proposition? In this episode, we're joined by financial planner and self-described "pathological nerd" Aravind Sithamparapillai for a rigorous exploration of private markets, product due diligence, advisor incentives, and the narratives driving the surging popularity of alts. Aravind has become known in advisor circles for asking the uncomfortable questions at conferences—the ones that expose gaps in explanations, shaky assumptions, and in some cases, outright contradictions. In this conversation, he shares the stories and analytical frameworks behind his deep dives into mortgage funds, private credit, private real estate, IRR-based marketing, vintage stacking, stale pricing, operational risk, and why even large professional allocators get burned. We explore how advisors are selling alts, how funds are pitching them, what due diligence actually requires, how expected returns can be decomposed, and why illiquidity and "low correlation" benefits rarely play out in practice. Aravind also explains how some funds maintain stable NAVs through "extend and pretend," how gating works, why audited financials aren't a safety blanket, and why even top-tier firms miss red flags. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:38) Aravind's introduction and reputation for deep, "pathological" research (0:02:23) Why alts have become embedded in Toronto's planning culture (0:03:38) Client pressure, advisor FOMO, and the belief that 60/40 is "broken" (0:05:31) Aravind's personal path into indexing, factors, and Dimensional (0:10:46) Why he started digging into alts: curiosity, client conversations, and advisor narratives (0:13:47) The "conference meme": why he asks questions others avoid (16:58) The role of intellectual honesty vs. industry narratives (20:19) The pivotal 2023 mortgage fund story: duration, turnover, and a major contradiction (22:51) "Extend and pretend": how stable NAVs can be manufactured (28:59) What "gating" actually means and why it matters (31:48) Marketing tactics: cherry-picked start dates and chart crimes (32:47) IRR manipulation, vintage stacking, and anchoring bias (36:35) Why comparing gross private credit returns to net equity returns is misleading (39:18) The problem with "low correlation" as a selling point (41:00) Why rebalancing with illiquid assets often fails in practice (44:58) How Aravind builds expected return estimates for alts (47:07) Private real estate: why expected returns often land near public market levels (48:48) A case study: apparent outperformance disappears once you match the right benchmark (51:43) The idiosyncratic risk of overweighting single-sector, single-region REITs (55:12) Why most advisors don't truly understand the all-in fees (58:00) What real due diligence should include (and why it's so hard) (1:00:35) Should advisors trust third-party due diligence providers? (1:02:58) How much comfort should investors take from audited financials? (1:05:02) Why valuation levels (1–3) matter and why most private funds use Level 3 inputs (1:06:00) The overall conclusion: markets work, but alts require extraordinary scrutiny Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-wilson/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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• Episode 385: A Case Study on Pension Benefits vs. Commuted Values

  In this episode, we feature two conversations that highlight PWL's culture, values, and intentional approach to advice. We first sit down with Trevor Daigle and Brett Watt, founders of EB Wealth in Halifax, to talk about why they chose to merge their thriving independent practice with PWL — PWL's first acquisition in Atlantic Canada. Trevor and Brett open up about what they saw in PWL's infrastructure, culture, and client-first philosophy, the internal hurdles they had to clear (including their own egos), and the moment they realized they "couldn't unsee" what PWL had built. Then, in the second half of the episode, PWL Portfolio Manager and Financial Planner Phil Briggs walks us through a remarkable real-world case. A podcast listener's father decided to take the commuted value of his defined benefit pension… and the family approached PWL to invest it. Rather than simply execute the plan, Phil stepped back to rigorously analyze whether that decision made sense at all. The result is one of the most compelling demonstrations of evidence-based financial planning we've featured on the show — covering risk pooling, tax implications, Monte Carlo results, survivor benefits, and the emotional side of decision-making. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:51) Welcoming Trevor and Brett — and why their practice, EB Wealth, aligned so closely with PWL's holistic philosophy. (0:02:30) How long-term cultural fit, infrastructure, and research depth drove their decision to join PWL. (0:04:57) "We can't unsee that": The moment a visit to Ottawa convinced them PWL's values were real at every level. (0:07:45) Their biggest concern: giving up control after years of running an independent practice — and how that shifted. (0:09:43) Setting aside ego: How thinking long-term and client-first changed their perspective on joining PWL. (0:11:35) What excites them most about the future: growth, learning, and being surrounded by experts who prioritize client outcomes. (0:13:17) Seeing PWL's collaborative culture in action — and why industry-typical "sales meetings" were nowhere to be found. (0:14:43) Transitioning clients and feeling the immediate impact on conversations and relationships. (15:05) The setup: A podcast listener reaches out after his father already decided to take the commuted value of a DB pension. (17:25) Why Phil was surprised — and the questions he wanted answered before talking about investing. (17:25–18:49) The benefits of staying in a DB pension: risk transfer, inflation protection, and mortality pooling. (19:07) The risks: employer insolvency, underfunding, and historical examples like Sears Canada and Nortel. (20:10–22:04) Evaluating pension solvency: sponsors, surplus status, funding ratios, diversification, and regulatory filings. (23:49) Reasons someone might take the commuted value: investment preferences, life expectancy concerns, and survivor benefits — the central issue in this case. (25:15–30:52) The tax trap: how the "excess amount" of a commuted value can trigger immediate taxation — in this case at the 53.53% marginal rate — and how RRSP room and PARs interact. (31:26–33:53) Modeling the decision: building retirement scenarios in financial planning software, including spending, inflation, CPP/OAS, rental income, and Monte Carlo analysis. (34:00–37:54) Results: 60/40 investment after commuting: overfunded plan but with significant volatility. 100% equity: higher legacy, similar failure rate. Leaving the pension with the employer: similar retirement score but dramatically higher Monte Carlo success (96%) due to guaranteed income, inflation hedging, and tax smoothing. (38:32–40:55) Why the pension's stable income floor and deferred taxation made such a big difference — even in a shortened-life-expectancy scenario. (41:05–41:37) Other firms simply accepted the commuted-value plan; PWL was the only firm to fully analyze the decision. (43:50–44:53) How personal values, risks, and emotional comfort interact with data in real financial planning decisions. (45:00–47:28) The next decision: choosing between a higher pension with a 2/3 survivor benefit or a lower pension with a 100% survivor benefit — and how break-even analysis (age 81) informed the client's choice. (47:44–48:31) Why planning software provides clarity people can't get through gut feel alone. (48:31–49:59) Trust and incentives: why turning down a large investable sum was the right decision — and why PWL celebrates that. (50:08–51:01) Culture + incentives: how PWL's structure allows advisors to prioritize clients without sales pressure. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-wilson/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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• Episode 384: Mamdouh Medhat - A Profitability Retrospective, and Private Fund Performance

  In this episode, we're joined by Mamdouh Medhat, VP and Senior Researcher at Dimensional Fund Advisors, for an exceptionally deep, exceptionally nerdy exploration of factor investing—focusing on profitability, value, defensive equity, and the persistent misunderstandings that surround them. Mamdouh walks us through his retrospective paper (co-authored with Robert Novy-Marx) on the profitability premium, why profitability subsumes a wide range of quality metrics, and why it dramatically clarifies how we should think about defensive/low-volatility strategies. He also explains the role of profitability in value's US underperformance since 2007, why price-to-book remains a remarkably effective valuation metric, and how Dimensional incorporates these insights into portfolio construction. In the second half of the conversation, we shift to private markets. Mamdouh unpacks Dimensional's research on buyouts, venture capital, private credit, and private real estate—revealing what percentage of the global investable universe these funds actually represent, how to benchmark them properly, how much dispersion exists across managers, how fair-value accounting changed the game post-2007, and why many perceived diversification benefits are actually just return smoothing. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Intro to Mamdouh Medhat and why his research fits the Rational Reminder "nerdy happy place." (1:32) The story behind Mamdouh's retrospective paper with Robert Novy-Marx and the impact of the original profitability research on academia and practice. (5:36) Three things the paper examines: quality investing, defensive/low-risk strategies, and value—unified through profitability. (6:55) Why none of the 15 major academic and practitioner quality metrics add explanatory power beyond profitability. (8:18) How spanning tests show profitability explains quality, but quality does not explain profitability. (12:24) Quality measures largely load on profitability—they're noisier versions of the same thing. (13:14) The link between quality metrics and fundamental momentum, especially for QMJ and quarterly ROE. (15:18) Practical implications: profitability is a parsimonious, more efficient way to capture the "quality" dimension. (16:30) Defensive equity through the profitability lens—why high profitability predicts low volatility. (18:58) Why long-only low-volatility strategies produce zero five-factor alpha—and why a simple high-profitability/low-investment portfolio plus T-bills beats them. (22:14) Alternative value metrics (EBITDA/EV, intangible-adjusted book-to-market, etc.) don't outperform price-to-book when profitability is accounted for. (24:57) Many "improved" value metrics simply rotate in profitability exposure, not better value information. (26:17) Roughly half of US value's post-2007 underperformance is explained by its negative correlation with profitability. (28:42) Industry tilts (e.g., energy/financials vs. tech/healthcare) drive much of value's volatility—not its long-term return. (30:33) The theoretical case for combining clean valuation (price-to-book) with clean expected cash flow (profitability). (33:36) Academic implications: models must jointly explain value and profitability—and their negative correlation. (35:09) Practitioner implications: parsimony—use clear valuation and cash-flow measures, limit excessive complexity. (36:53) How Dimensional measures profitability: operating profitability (revenue – COGS – SG&A – interest) scaled by book equity. (41:09) Why tilting toward or away from countries based on aggregate characteristics rarely adds value—premiums come from stocks, not countries. (42:57) Industry-level tilts show similar patterns—industry momentum exists but is impractical due to massive turnover. (46:15) How Dimensional handles country and industry weights: sort within countries, then apply sector caps. (48:27) Private markets: private funds make up roughly 10% of the global investable universe—not 25–100% as sometimes claimed. (50:53) Benchmark choice for private funds is crucial—S&P 500 is not appropriate for buyouts or VCs. (52:00) Using KSPME (public-market equivalent), buyouts and VCs match small-cap value/growth benchmarks; private credit matches high yield; private real estate underperforms listed real estate. (55:50) Factor exposures post-2007 explain 70–80% of private-fund return variation due to fair-value accounting. (1:00:48) Wide dispersion in private-fund performance—top 5% double or triple capital; bottom 5% lose half. (1:03:49) Little evidence of manager persistence—manager selection must rely on due diligence, not past vintages. (1:08:24) No strong time trend in private-fund outperformance, but correlations with public markets have increased. (1:09:13) Many diversification benefits historically attributed to private assets were actually illiquidity-driven smoothing. (1:12:25) Rising demand and democratization likely reduce expected returns in private markets—exclusivity is fading.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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• Episode 383: AMA #10 - Dollar cost averaging & mutual funds vs. ETFs

  In this episode of Rational Reminder, Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Ben Wilson return with a classic AMA format—answering listener questions that dig deep into the behavioral and evidence-based foundations of sensible investing. From lump-sum investing to the psychology of advice, the trio blend data, humor, and clear thinking to demystify complex financial ideas. They discuss the behavioral logic behind dollar-cost averaging, why mutual funds might actually be more tax-efficient than ETFs in Canada, and whether technology could ever truly replace human financial advisors. Plus, they share their biggest investing mistakes (yes, Bitcoin makes an appearance), dissect the rise of "buffered" ETFs, and explain why chasing complexity usually costs investors more than it helps. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:05) Introduction – The first episode featuring all three hosts together: Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Ben Wilson. (0:44) OneDigital update: expanding evidence-based advice across Canada with new PWL partners in Halifax. (2:36) The mission in motion – bringing the "markets work and planning matters" philosophy to more Canadians. (5:29) "Finding and funding a good life" – how PWL integrates wellness and happiness into financial planning. (6:16) AMA Question 1: Lump-sum vs. dollar-cost averaging — why lump-sum wins 65% of the time. (10:05) Base rates, behavioral regret, and the real role of an advisor. (12:22) The 2020 PWL paper results and how behavioral hedging fits in. (16:10) If dollar-cost averaging feels safer, maybe your portfolio is too aggressive. (18:08) AMA Question 2: Advice for smaller portfolios — how technology, AI, and fee-only planners can fill the gap. (21:01) Can AI really replace advisors? Cameron's Waymo analogy sparks debate. (23:33) AMA Question 3: Mutual funds vs. ETFs — why in Canada, mutual funds may actually be more tax-efficient. (30:00) The Capital Gains Refund Mechanism (CGRM) explained — and why it matters. (34:31) Dimensional's Canadian funds vs. Vanguard ETFs — tax distribution data that surprises most investors. (37:40) AMA Question 4: Are discount bonds priced for tax efficiency? The evidence says no—discount bonds still win. (42:23) AMA Question 5: Biggest investment mistakes — from Bitcoin regrets to house-buying reflections. (48:15) AMA Question 6: Buffered ETFs — comfort, complexity, and why simple portfolios outperform. (53:45) Simplicity as a superpower — why "markets work" is still the most radical idea in finance. (55:27) AMA Question 7: Updating the RR model portfolio — why there's no "optimal" portfolio and simplicity wins again. (58:31) After show: Reviews, humor, and a reminder about "No Net Worth November." (1:04:15) Life offline — Cameron's reflections on quitting social media and finding clarity. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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• Episode 382: Ted Cadsby - The Power of Index Funds, and Being Human

  In this episode, Ben, Cameron, and Dan are joined by Ted Cadsby, former executive at CIBC, author of The Power of Index Funds, Closing the Mind Gap, and Hard to Be Human. Ted brings a rare combination of experience in both finance and cognitive psychology, having helped introduce index investing to Canada before turning his attention to how human thinking itself often misleads us. Ted shares inside stories from his time at CIBC—how he tried to make the bank an indexing leader in the late 1990s, the pushback he faced, and why he still believes so deeply in indexing today. Then, the conversation turns to human cognition: why our brains evolved for simplicity, certainty, and emotion, and how those traits can sabotage both our portfolios and our peace of mind. From "greedy reductionism" and "certainty addiction" to emotional overreaction and competing selves, Ted unpacks the five cognitive design flaws that make it hard to be human—and how metacognition and mindfulness can help us overcome them. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04) Introduction to the Rational Reminder Podcast and hosts. (0:18) Cameron's story about rediscovering The Power of Index Funds and reconnecting with Ted Cadsby. (2:21) How Ted brought index investing to CIBC and tried to make the bank a leader in indexing. (5:58) Why assessing active managers taught Ted about randomness, noise, and the illusion of skill. (8:42) The moment Ted "saw the light" on indexing—and why randomness, not market efficiency, is the real obstacle for active managers. (12:54) How Ted tried to implement index investing at CIBC and the cultural resistance he faced. (15:05) The goals of The Power of Index Funds (1999) and how he tied indexing to human behavior. (18:49) How his indexing push created internal conflict at CIBC and ultimately led to his departure. (23:23) The influence of John Bogle and Vanguard on Ted's mission to bring indexing to Canada. (26:59) Why he's still passionate about indexing, and what worries him about private equity. (31:44) How human cognition and philosophy led him from finance to exploring how we think. (34:46) The "Big Five" cognitive design flaws that shape human decision-making:  1. Greedy reductionism – our urge to oversimplify complex systems.  2. Certainty addiction – craving the feeling of knowing, even when we're wrong.  3. Emotional hostage-taking – overreacting and ruminating.  4. Competing selves – inner conflicts between present and future selves.  5. Misguided search for meaning – overextending our need for purpose. (44:11) Why modern life amplifies these flaws and how System 1 (automatic) and System 2 (deliberate) thinking play into it. (48:00) The human superpower: metacognition—our ability to think about thinking. (49:57) How mindfulness and a "meditative stance" help us use metacognition daily. (53:57) Why knowing your biases isn't enough—emotional regulation is the real challenge. (56:27) How to recognize triggers for deeper reflection and System 2 thinking. (1:00:34) How systems thinking and better questions can combat our reductionist tendencies. (1:05:57) Why our addiction to certainty fuels overconfidence and poor decisions. (1:08:43) How humility, probabilistic thinking, and skepticism can make us wiser investors and humans. (1:11:39) When to listen to emotions—and when to treat them as cognitive red flags. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://ca.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)  

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