A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/s...
In this episode, we come back to the definition of risk and start discussing how we can measure it. That is why we need to introduce risk measures. But that requires us to be more formal and speak about the sample space and the event space in a more mathematical way.Ready to discover the power set?We are paving the way to introduce the probability space, a pivotal concept for us.Ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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17:09
LOR12: Keynes, Jeffreys, Jaynes and finally Kolmogorov
In this episode, we conclude our overview of the various schools of thought on probability.We begin by examining the logicist perspectives of Keynes, Jeffreys, and Jaynes before transitioning to Kolmogorov's axiomatic definition.We will briefly review the three basic axioms of probability and explain why the axiomatic approach is not a definition in the traditional sense, but rather a framework that transcends the objectivist–subjectivist debate.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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22:01
LOR11: Probability as logic, and the logic of probability.
This episode introduces logicism, examining how modern logic informs our understanding of probability. Can logicism be considered as a bridge between probabilistic objectivism and subjectivism? What did Wittgenstein think about probability?Is probability the new logic of science?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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17:10
LOR10: Fighting the hydra of frequentism, or why subjectivism is preferable
In this episode, we delve into subjective probability by drawing on Bruno de Finetti’s ideas. We show how viewing probability as a fair bet may lead to coherent estimates. We discuss how de Finetti challenges the circular and limiting nature of the classical and frequentist definitions, arguing that personal judgment, informed by data, experts, and even intuition, is key.We also covers advanced ideas like Jeffrey's radical probabilism, ultimately emphasizing the need for continuous learning and humility in decision-making. Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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14:40
LOR9: Probability does not exist, or the subjectivist approach
We introduce the subjectivist perspective on probability, featuring thinkers like Bruno de Finetti, Frank Ramsey, and Leonard Savage, who argue that probability is not an objective entity but rather something we invent to manage uncertainty arising from our limited knowledge.De Finetti’s “betting” approach interprets probability as the price one would pay for a chance to win a fixed payoff, showing how different beliefs produce different numerical values.From Laplace’s demon to everyday life, the notion of chance emerges because our knowledge is partial, compelling us to create probability and risk rather than discover them as objective realities. Are you ready to take the (subjective) risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
Brasil