Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out!
On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.
The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.
Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.
Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.
Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.
WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.
Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.
Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run.

Jump to:
0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 
1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 
6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 
11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 
13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 
16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 
21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 
22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 
26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 
29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 
32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 
36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 
41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times.
Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance.
They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative.
Key Takeaways:
Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just Nvidia
Intel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining traction
AI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTD
Earnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big Tech
Consumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same time
Services inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above target
The Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cuts
GDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominal
Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:
0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff 
1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer 
6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout 
10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative 
14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally 
18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze 
22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain 
25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment 
37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target 
52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion 
59:30 Where to Follow and What's Next

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick 

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Talmon:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/
• X: https://x.com/talmonsmith

Connect with Josh:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/
• X: https://x.com/_JoshSchafer

Questions? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in?
Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market.
The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here.
Key Takeaways:
The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just relief
Forward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the index
Margin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns
Consumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flat
Telecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified models
Bull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historically
Ryan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year

Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup
0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons
3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule
8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role
9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally
16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy
22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples
29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials
37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence
44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth
47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends
50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story
53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026?
56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.
In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.
The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.
If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.

Jump to:
0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction
2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis
6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics
10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins
20:50 The Double Blockade Explained
27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets
29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction
33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative
36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation
50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent
57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing

Connect with Ryan:
• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick
Connect with Sonu:
• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en
Connect with Rory Johnston:
• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/
• X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party?

Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot.

The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life.

Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways:
- Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk.
- Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities.
- The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration.
- Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign.
- Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever.
- Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher.

Jump to:
0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines 
2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check 
8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History 
14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk 
18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation 
23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators 
30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos 
34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most 
42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check 
49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead 
53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

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