Excess Returns

• What Really Drove Buffett’s Success | Kai Wu on Berkshire's Intangible Edge

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett’s investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai’s research paper “Buffett’s Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett’s approach and what this means for investors today.Topics Covered:The three eras of Buffett’s portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information ageWhy Buffett’s shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realizeHow Charlie Munger helped change Buffett’s approach — and why that matteredBuffett’s preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effectsHow to quantify intangible value and its four key componentsSurprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocksKai’s framework for building an intangible value score across stocksFactor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett’s alphaThe impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competenceHow to replicate Buffett’s approach using a systematic, factor-based strategyWhy intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moatTimestamps:00:00 – Buffett’s evolution from value to intangible investor01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett’s investing style now04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple08:15 – How Buffett’s thinking changed under Munger’s influence10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett’s definition of economic goodwill13:10 – Four components of intangible value15:10 – Mapping Buffett’s holdings to intangible assets over time17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving?20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 826:00 – Defining Kai’s intangible value factor27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set33:00 – Today’s portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai’s framework34:45 – Decomposing Buffett’s returns into factors38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett’s alpha43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors54:00 – Why Buffett’s future returns may be more muted

  --------  

  1:02:41

  --------

  1:02:41
• The Seven Rules of Wall Street | Sam Stovall

  📈 In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street. We explore Sam’s timeless, data-driven investing rules and connect them to today’s market environment—including sector trends, interest rates, Fed policy, investor behavior, and why market history is one of the most underrated tools for navigating uncertainty. This conversation blends historical perspective with practical insights, making it essential viewing for long-term investors and students of market behavior alike.🔍 Topics Covered:The power of rules-based investing and emotional disciplineWhy momentum often beats mean reversion in sectorsThe predictive value of January market performanceHow AI hype is shaping today’s market narrativeWhether “Sell in May” still works—and what to do insteadThe case for value investing and high-quality dividend stocksA simple two-sector portfolio that beat tech (with less risk)Whether the 60/40 portfolio is still viableThe failure of equal weight and small caps to outperform recentlyHow to manage fear and stay invested during volatile marketsWhat history teaches about Fed rate cuts and market returnsA momentum strategy for finding “bull markets somewhere”Sam’s top lesson for the average investor⏱️ Timestamps:00:00 – Market performance after strong Januaries02:00 – Let your winners ride, cut losers short04:45 – Current sector winners and market concentration06:30 – As goes January, so goes the year09:00 – Why Year 3 of bull markets tends to be weak11:00 – How AI fits into today’s bull case12:30 – Sell in May—but rotate instead of retreat14:30 – Why value investing has struggled16:00 – Tech as the new consumer staple?17:45 – A free lunch: Tech + staples portfolio20:30 – The 60/40 portfolio and inflation hedging22:20 – Don’t get mad, get even (equal weight vs. cap weight)24:00 – Managing emotions and using history as Valium26:20 – Don’t fight the Fed: Rate cuts and market returns28:30 – CFRA’s Fed outlook for the second half29:40 – There’s always a bull market somewhere31:20 – Sam’s #1 lesson for the average investor

  --------  

  33:15

  --------

  33:15
• The 100 Year Pivot | Navigating a Changing Market with Grant Williams

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn’t about predicting the next trade; it’s about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive.🔍 Topics covered in this episode:What the “Hundred Year Pivot” really meansWhy trust is the foundation of everything — and why it’s crackingThe loss of long-standing institutions and belief systemsHow the freezing of Russian assets triggered a global monetary rethinkWhy central banks are buying gold like never beforeWhy “buy the dip” might be a dangerous relic of a past eraThe return of capital preservation as a core investing principleHow community, religion, and localism are resurfacingThe psychology of luck, risk, and staying richWhat gives Grant hope, despite the darkness of this turning⏱️ Timestamps:00:00 – The hundred-year pivot and deep structural change04:00 – Financial nihilism and the breakdown of institutional trust11:00 – The freezing of Russian assets and its global implications14:00 – Central banks, gold, and the unraveling of the dollar system23:00 – From 40 years of tailwinds to a harder investing environment27:00 – Why “buy the dip” is getting more dangerous33:00 – Capital preservation vs. capital accumulation40:00 – Societal change, community assets, and the new investment mindset54:00 – Grant’s reason for optimism

  --------  

  59:30

  --------

  59:30
• The Bubble No One Can Sell | Dan Rasmussen on the Private Equity Trap

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad’s Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize.Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power.🔑 Topics covered:Why private equity may not be what investors think it isThe original logic of the Yale model—and how it’s broken todayLeverage, small company risk, and the illusion of low volatilityHow private equity portfolios are “money traps” in disguiseSmall-cap value as public market private equityWhy biotech could be the next overlooked opportunityHow innovation bubbles spark long-term progressAI’s capital intensity and implications for Big Tech dominanceBehavioral risks in institutional vs. retail investing📍 Timestamps:00:00 – Why private equity could be a money trap03:00 – The over-allocation to small, low-margin, highly levered companies07:25 – Why private equity’s popularity may signal poor future returns14:30 – The Yale Model’s origin story and how it morphed19:25 – Collapse in private equity distributions23:34 – Volatility laundering and misleading risk metrics27:00 – What happens when private equity goes public31:00 – Do lockups help investor behavior—or prevent learning?35:10 – Could small-cap value be a better alternative to private equity?42:00 – Why biotech is the most beaten-up corner of small caps47:00 – Bubbles, innovation, and the role of speculative excess51:00 – AI, capital intensity, and a return to economic gravity54:00 – Will AI empower monopolies or smaller players?

  --------  

  55:48

  --------

  55:48
• Darius Dale on the Fourth Turning, Fiscal Dominance, and the Case for a Melt-Up

  Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter.🔍 In This Episode:The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and societyWhy inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are convergingHow Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to riskWhat the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy nowThe overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffsHow AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramaticallyWhy he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos)⏱️ Timestamps:00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better?50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale

  --------  

  57:50

  --------

  57:50

Mais podcasts de Negócios

Podcasts em tendência em Negócios

Sobre Excess Returns

Excess Returns: Podcast do grupo