Grain Farmers of Ontario

• Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026

  US and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply. In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April. However, as usual wheat is the only crop that we expose to four different seasons and there is a plethora of risk ahead. Cash prices for wheat at $6.50 per bushel do not offer Ontario wheat producers profitable opportunities when all things are considered. However, keep in mind and nothing ever stays the same especially when it comes to prices and market orders should be set to capture good wheat pricing opportunities over winter. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar continues to add stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. A key driver in the Canadian dollar’s continuing trade relationship with the United States and as we all know that’s a pretty tough one. It is hard to know how that is all going to work out. At the same time the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 2.25% earlier which is bearish to neutral for the Canadian dollar. At a certain point the Canadian dollar is going to turn up, but of course it’s very difficult to know when. Needless to say, when it does turn up it will have a negative impact on Ontario cash grain prices. The challenge will be to continue to balance our foreign exchange concerns with grain futures prices. Our geopolitical world continues to churn. The Ukraine Russia war has dominated much of this concern over the last 3 1/2 years. It continues with almost daily reports of peace initiatives led by the Americans. The grain market especially for wheat and corn seems to have neutralized their trading algorithms with regard to the war. It seemingly doesn’t matter anymore. However, as always it is a big concern and hopefully in 2026 will come to an end. At the end of the day, if peace ever reaches that region agriculture production should increase substantially. As mentioned earlier, South American weather will remain top of mine for every producer whether they’re in Ontario, Iowa or in Mato Grosso Brazil. At the present time about 59% of Argentinian soybean planting has been completed according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. It is rated at 58% good to excellent. Meanwhile our Brazilian friends have 90% of their soybean crop planted. Yes, even though it’s cold outside watch for news regarding weather markets forming out of South America. As we careen into the new year there certainly will be many challenges for those of us on the farm. One constant that we will always have is building our marketing plan to manage all the risks that we have looking forward. 2026 will be no different. There is a record crop behind us, and there is a record crop in front of us. However, demand is growing, and you never know when some butterfly will be causing chaos somewhere. Sometimes the best laid plans don’t happen, and markets start to gyrate. Yes, even in 2026 risk management will not grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

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• Market Trends Report – November & December 2025

  US and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same time there’s been a bit of a dearth of market information as the US government shutdown has meant very little in terms of information coming out from USDA. However, this all changed on November the 14th when despite the continuing governing shutdown, the USDA released their latest WASDE report. For market watchers it was a long two months without USDA numbers. Many were expecting much lower numbers in this November report. However, it seems like big supply is still winning. The USDA actually lowered corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 bushels per acre. This was much lower than pre report expectations. This put US domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels from two years ago. Planted acreage was maintained at 98.7 million acres with harvested acreage at 90 million acres. The corn ending stocks for this year were raised 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. The 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production was raised to 136 MMT, while Argentinian production was maintained at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA reduced soybean yields by .5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was left unchanged from September at 80.3 million acres. This put total US production at 4.253 billion bushels a slight decrease from September. At the end of the day the USDA reduced their ending stocks to 290 million bushels which is a drop from 300 million bushels in September. Brazilian soybean production is set at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT for Argentina. This is unchanged from September. The US wheat production is set at 1.985 billion bushels which is unchanged from the September small grains report. On Nov 16th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.67 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $11.24 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.15. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.64 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.15 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of November 16th closed at $60.09/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.12/gallon, up vs the $2.09/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on November 14th, 2025, was .7130 US, about the same vs the .7025 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario In Ontario it has been a good harvest window for a crop that has been widely divergent depending on where you are in the province. As of November 16th, most if not all of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Corn continues to be harvested with an estimate of about 65% complete. Widespread snow in the province in the middle of November did cause somewhat of a slowdown. Yields reflect the drought conditions of the summer with central and eastern Ontario being pretty tough. On the contrary corn yields in the deep southwest of Ontario are record high by a lot. As a general rule winter wheat acreage in Ontario is highly correlated to wheat planting conditions in the fall. In other words, if it’s a good fall wheat production is usually up. This does not necessarily reflect 2025 as we had a very good fall, but wheat production is set to come in at about 1 million acres which would be slightly below last year. Ontario basis levels for grains has increased slightly from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar being at a low ebb has been part of this equation but also the uneven supply and drought-stricken areas has been another. For instance, some basis bids in eastern Ontario are much higher than the rest of the province for corn. The US replacement prices also favourable toward importing corn into Ontario. However, with big corn supplies in the deep southwest the situation is fluid. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.52. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.79 bu. range. On November 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.23/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The November USDA report was a disappointment to market observers who are expecting much more. Interestingly enough, the November report is usually a dull report on a normal year. However, with the government shutdown and with the trading algorithms not being fed U.S. government numbers for about 60 days it was widely anticipated as a big report. However, when it was released and the numbers were presented, it looks like big supply won the day again as there wasn’t a big difference from September. The big news in geopolitics over the last few weeks has been the anticipation of soybean purchases from the Chinese again. The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi was widely seen as possible impetus to a catalyst on soybean purchases. However, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The USDA actually reduced export demand on November 14th and this tempered soybean prices significantly post report. After the Trump/ Xi meeting, the Chinese did agree to buy approximately 12 MMTs of soybeans this market year with an additional 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Keep in mind that in the 2024/2025 marketing year China bought 22.5 MMTs of soybeans from the US. So, in many ways, having the Chinese buy 12 MMTs of soybeans in this marketing year is half a celebration. Trade wars might be easy to win, but in this case, it looks like China has won this round. However, there might be a pullback in prices. There certainly was on the USDA report date. At the present time cash Brazilian soybean values are lower and at a certain point the Chinese will need soybeans in December and January and the Americans would be well placed to serve that need before the Brazilian crop starts being harvested. As per usual in these geopolitical situations nothing is true, and everything is true at the same time. Cheap agricultural commodities are always the great elixir to make sales possible. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Was the USDA number on corn of 186 bushels per acre a proverbial head fake? In other words, traders were expecting a much lower number in fact some were saying 3.2 or more bushels lower than 186 based on the cash markets over the last 60 days. Coming in at 186 bushels per acre was surprising to many. Should we expect this number to go lower in December and the final report in January much lower? Keep in mind that demand is off the chart for corn. For instance, US domestic usage alone is forecast at 13.08 billion bushels. The corn export number for 2025 and 2026 is now pegged at 3.75 billion bushels which is up 100 million bushels from September. There is some testosterone in these numbers. With big supply, we need that. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. This spread is the same as last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have had a little bullish run over the last several weeks but along came the USDA on November 14th and it put a kibosh on that. USDA lowered the soybean number down to 53 bushels per acre which was expected but there was very little else in the report to support the market bulls. Soybeans retreated over $0.20 on the day and will need to regroup to move ahead. Our American friends have been looking at this regroup as Chinese buying of American soybeans. However, that is not happened yet in any big way. For instance, the American government shutdown has meant that none of this has been documented and released for publication. At the same time any agreement with the Chinese only reflects lower numbers if it happens at all. However, on the flip side if in the unexpected event China does come through in a big way for American beans, it will be good for soybean prices. Needless to say, the cash price for Brazilian beans now is far below American gulf soybeans values. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11.75 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat In the wheat market over the last two weeks of October and the first week in November we had kind of an earthquake. This refers to about a dollar appreciation in the futures price of wheat at Chicago which is pretty unusual. As we all know, there is wheat everywhere with supply being replenished all the time. On que, in the November 14th USDA report, USDA increased global production substantially which always puts a temper on prices. This resulted in global ending stocks increasing for wheat as well as an increase recorded for the United States. It looks as we finish off 2025, there’s wheat everywhere again. In Ontario you would think that a dollar rally in wheat futures prices and corresponding cash price would be a cause for celebration. However, cash price is at $6.79 a bushel for next summer haven’t quite moved the needle. Ontario producers are certainly hoping for more based on the cost of production which has continually got higher overtime. Wheat is also usually a little bit riskier to contract forward as it’s the only crop we expose to four different seasons of risk. It is a long way to pay day in the summer of 2026. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar has been trading under $0.71 US for several weeks and although nobody knows how this will trade in the next several weeks, we do know that a dollar this low is good for Ontario cash grain prices. As always, the value of the Canadian dollar is usually reflected as an inverse on to where the US dollar is going. However, in the current geopolitical state between the United States and Canada, the value of Canadian dollar has reflected the reality of the trade war with the United States. In other words, these are unusual times between United States and Canada and the smaller country is always going to lose in the economic optics of that tussle. The Canadian dollar moving down into 70 cent territory is part of that and it may continue. In many ways it’s a very tough thing for Canada but not necessarily that way for Ontario grain producers. For instance, a perfect storm for Ontario grain farmers is for rising grain futures prices and the lower Canadian dollar. That’s exactly what we have gotten over the last six weeks with corn, soybean and wheat futures rising while the Canadian dollar went lower. This has resulted in much higher cash prices than were expected earlier in the year. It may or may not continue but it should serve as an example of how divergent moves in the futures and currency markets can result in good opportunities for Ontario farmers. Keep in mind as our harvest season winds down here in Ontario, our friends in South America are hard at it planting crops. For instance, Brazil soybeans are over half planted as of November 16th with some areas far better than that. Of course, we know that the health of these crops in South America will have a huge bearing on the prices our futures market generates. In many ways, it’s like a spring weather market at the start of our winter. It’s important that we keep abreast of South American conditions moving forward. The challenge for Ontario farmers looking to market their cash grain as well as their future grain production plans in 2026 is to balance all of these market variables. The reality of big supply was confirmed in the November 14th USDA report. It is also true this was done by a skeletal crew and maybe the next couple USDA reports will be a little bit more thorough and different. In any case, it will be important to partake in daily market intelligence. There surely will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The last six weeks have proved that. Surely the next six weeks will too. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

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• Market Trends Report – October & November 2025

  US and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout farm country. In the meantime, politics has taken over in the American government which has led to a shutdown of government services. This includes much of the crop reporting functions of the USDA and the monthly WASDE report. Hopefully this will change going into November, but it is all conjecture at this point. Keep in mind that USDA reports do serve as a benchmark for market action. They are not perfect and in fact, 2025 has been an example of that. For instance, going from last month’s report we have a record corn production expected of 16.814 billion bushels on an average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is projected on a record corn acreage of 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage which is now projected at 90 million acres. Looking back, the USDA predicted corn acreage this year at 95.3 million acres on March 31st. The difference is striking, and it has had an effect on the market. The same could be said for the soybean market as planted acreage from September being adjusted to 81.1 million acres. The USDA had predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans on March 31st. Clearly, it’s hard to square the circle on how these numbers could be so different over the course of a few months. Needless to say, USDA numbers give us benchmarks which are consumed by trading algorithms, which discover our futures prices. In lieu of those benchmarks, the market still gives better clues sometimes than the USDA. For instance, futures spreads have been narrowing and basis levels have been increasing across the greater American corn belt. This hints at the crop might not be as big as advertised. As we move ahead, without government numbers zeroing in on futures spreads and basis values over the next few weeks are extremely important to understand market direction. On October 17th corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.22 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.57 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.19 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.64. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of October 17th closed at $57.54/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.09/gallon, down vs the $2.20/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 17th, 2025, was .7125 US, lower vs the .7221 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario It has been an amazing stretch of harvest weather from late September into October 16th across Ontario. Warm temperatures and dry days intermixed with just a few rain showers has led to big harvest progress throughout Ontario farm country. As of October, the 15th about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and 2% of Ontario corn has been harvested. You can make an argument that drought is good at harvest time, allowing fast harvest progress. However, as we all know severe drought in much of central and eastern Ontario has impacted crops this year leading to very low yields in some cases. As of the end of September this continued. However, yields have been very good in the deep southwest of the province which got more rainfall throughout the growing season. Overall yield for both corn and soybeans for Ontario will be down from last year and quite significantly in the droughty areas. Ontario basis levels for corn have retreated from earlier levels where there were premiums for early harvest corn. This corn would have been harvested in late September or very early October. The lower basis values lately reflect lots of corn in the United States as well as deep southwestern Ontario. However, there will likely be basis opportunities in eastern Ontario reflecting the drought of the last summer. The soybean basis actually increased slightly from last month reflecting largely the drop in the Canadian dollar to the .7125 US level. Foreign exchange, as always is a major factor in the Ontario soybean basis level. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.90. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.41 bu. range. On October 17th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Daily market intelligence remains key to our marketing plans in 2025. At the present time that is very difficult especially when the USDA is not releasing crop reports which are usually the lifeblood of trading algorithms. In the meantime, focusing in on narrowing spreads in futures and basis values can offer some of the best clues. Those clues now are showing a tightening of future spreads especially in corn and a little bit less so in soybeans. Is it the start of something or is it simply a head fake? It is all so hard to know especially at a time when the USDA is not releasing numbers on grain. However, it would seem that commercial interests are back in the market as the week ended on October 17th. Of course, this is all relative to the big size of the crop out there. Much has been said about the lack of Chinese soybean buying from the United States but there are really no economic reasons for the Chinese to do so. At the current effective tariff rates of the 23% against US soybeans its cost prohibitive for Chinese processors. US soybean prices are now below Brazilian prices and $1.40 bushel below Chinese domestic prices. This would come especially at a time when there is a gap between South America supply. However, it may seem that trade wars are bit harder to win than once thought. It’s just a long story now. Domestically, US soybean crush in September was 12% higher than the year before as the US crush industry continues to expand into territory not seen previously. This sector is particularly sensitive to any trade announcement coming between China and the United States. An argument could be made if things are normalized soybean prices could be springboard higher. However, these are not normal times especially with the vacuum of USDA information. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 186.7 bushels per acre is a very solid US domestic yield, in fact a record. However, without official USDA numbers it is hard to judge if that is been backed off going into October. Future spreads and basis along with the price movement have told us that there is a strong indication that the yield might not be as high as that. A two-bushel reduction in yield significantly alter the stocks picture based on previous record production. Corn prices have increased somewhat from the August lows and domestic use has been strong in the United States as well as big export numbers. It is always hard to tell without the government reports, but Mexico has been a big buyer of corn at these price levels. There is a lot of livestock to feed and a lot of corn products to be consumed in Mexico. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. However, this spread has been narrowing over the last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans offer hope for producers? It seems that way especially when you take the lower acreage this year but realistically soybeans really haven’t gone anywhere in two years. We have been stuck between a range of $9.50 a bushel and $10.50 a bushel on the front futures month. It has been very difficult to break above that. The soybean market has grown accustomed to not having any Chinese buying in it. The Chinese need to buy 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans between now and when new crop soybeans start coming off in January from Brazil. There is a meeting scheduled for the end of the month between President Trump and President Xi but of course any trade agreement is a theory now. However, a surprise announcement would help soybeans break out of that big range it’s been in for quite some time. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Are wheat prices on the way back after such a bearish time? Add a certain point you would have to say yes with Chicago wheat dipping to such low levels. However, as always wheat suffers from the inescapable fact that is grown everywhere throughout the world and planted and harvested every month. Supply dips are always smoothed over quickly. In Ontario the biggest clue to how much wheat will be planted usually has to do with harvest weather and this year it has being exquisite toward the end of September and into mid-October. This should facilitate the maximum amount of wheat planted possibly over 1,000,000 acres again. However, low prices have been the bane of wheat producers over the last year, and this continues. Don’t be surprised if we do see a pull up in planted acres in 2025. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Bank of Canada recently reduced their overnight lending rate to 2.5%, which is a bearish factor for the Canadian dollar. The drop of the Canadian dollar down to the 71 cent level US continues to sustain Ontario grain prices. The interest rate cut and the ongoing problems with the United States without a trade agreement is leading to some economic uncertainty and possibly weak growth forecasts for the economy. The Canadian dollar is reflecting this, and it is showing up in Ontario basis levels for grain. Will we see a post-harvest grain market rally? Typically, we do although looking back it certainly wasn’t a characteristic last year after harvest. It’s pretty clear as we look ahead that there could be several events that could ignite grain markets further. One could be anything within the geopolitics of the Middle East and the other could be some type of surprise trade agreement between the United States and China. As we move into November all of this is possible. As we forge ahead it will all be about harvest progress and yield as well as currency movements and basis and local logistics. Yes, regardless of futures spreads and basis tightening we still have a big crop out there weighing on our prices. The challenge for Ontario producers is to bring this crop home and stay true to their marketing plan formed over a period of weeks and months. Risk management never grows old. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

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• Market Trends Report – September & October 2025

  US and the World It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater American corn belt. As we headed into the end of September many market observers were wondering just how much impact the dry late summer had on the crops growing in the field. On September 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. At first glance the September 12th USDA report was bearish showing some very big numbers. In an unexpected move the USDA increased corn production 72 million bushels pushing the projected record total up to 16.814 billion bushels. This happened despite a 2.1 bushel per acre cut in 2025 yield down to 186.7 bushels per acre. The lower yield was offset from USDA by increasing planted acreage and expected harvested acreage. So, we are smashing the previous production record that took place in 2023/2024 of 15.34 billion bushels of corn. The US planted corn acreage was increased 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage is now projected to be 90 million acres up 1.3 million acres from last month. Corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 for the US corn crop is now 2.117 billion bushels which is the highest ending stock in 7 years. Keep in mind anticipated corn demand is at a record high of 16.06 billion bushels. On the soybean side the USDA was not as dramatic as they were with the corn. US domestic yield was actually cut 1/10 of a bushel down to 53.5 bushels per acre with planted acreage at 81.1 million acres and harvested acreage to be 80.3 million acres. This puts the total soybean production to come in at 4.301 billion bushels. The increase in soybean acreage resulted in a slight increase from the 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans being predicted last month. Production in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively. China’s import of soybeans is expected to be 112 MMTs, the same as last month. The USDA will update their wheat production forecast in its Small Grains Summary to be released September 30th. On September 12th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.69 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.46 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.23 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.29 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of September 12th closed at $62.69/barrel the same vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.20/gallon, up vs the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on September 12th, 2025, was .7221 US, lower vs the .7243 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario In Ontario the yield robber this year will likely be the protracted dry weather that many areas of the province received during the 2025 growing season. Simply put, it was a dry year for eastern and central Ontario as well as the Niagara region and parts of west central Ontario. The one exception is the deep southwest of Ontario which received adequate rainfall and has tremendous crops in the field. However, an argument could still be made that it is still dry and some of these drought induced fields have already seen soybean harvest started. Corn harvest started earlier for some people in central and eastern Ontario who had no alternative but to harvest corn for silage hoping to salvage something from the drought. At the same time rapid movement of corn out of the province led to a situation where basis levels were much higher especially in eastern Ontario going into Quebec. In other words, large expanses of central and eastern Ontario are the complete opposite of the big crop in the greater American corn belt. As we look ahead US corn will likely move into these areas in 2025/2026 rapidly replacing corn that didn’t come to fruition through drought ravaged fields in 2025. In fact, any early harvest corn coming off this September can find a big premium vs going into later October and November. It’s a unique situation. Basis levels have risen or widened since the last Market Trends report. This is partly a reflection of the low Canadian dollar currently at .7221 US but also a reflection of the amount of corn that has left the province. This also represents good opportunity for farmers selling as we look ahead. If there’s been one silver lining to the swoon in futures prices over the last year, it’s about our Ontario basis levels. The Canadian dollar has largely been a stimulus to these price levels. The uneven forecast for Ontario corn supply going into 2026 will surely create some basis opportunities looking ahead in eastern Ontario.       Old crop corn basis levels are $1.90 to $2.36 over the December 2025 corn futures on September 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.96 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.04.  For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On September 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.92/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line There is a huge crop coming in at record levels. It is almost hard to get your mind around it. The USDA has certainly been somewhat uneven over the summer of 2025 with regard to the number of acres that are in the ground. However, with combines rolling across the American corn belt the corn and soybeans are starting to come in and in the next few weeks we should have an even better appreciation for where this crop is. The overall question might be why did the market react positively to the biggest corn crops ever to be planted in the United States? Of course, if we knew that for sure we could hedge appropriately but keep in mind we’ve had so much negative and bearish news over the period of the summer. Some traders have often said don’t short a sleeping market and that’s what the corn market might have been over the last 60 days. The record demand which can often get overlooked in a big supply scenario is having an impact. Futures spreads in corn have been weakening over the last month reflecting the notion that the crop might not be as good as first advertised. Initial yield reports out of Illinois are substantiating that. However, on the soybean side the November January futures spreads were unchanged on report day. The commercial side was actually growing more bearish with regard to buying soybeans going into the weekend. So, basis levels in the United States for both corn and soybeans may widen on this run up in futures. The demand picture for corn is strong. It is the same for soybeans, but American soybeans not so much because of a lack of Chinese purchasing. Keep in mind the price of beef and pork as we go into the grain harvesting season. The price of beef has been at record highs and the price of pork has been high as well. It’s quite obvious that this is good for feed demand, and it will likely be sustained through the winter. The beef and pork price complex is healthy for a variety of reasons. A surging stock market does help consumers in the United States keep up their purchasing of protein. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 98.7 million acres of corn is huge. Since the June 30th acreage report we have gained 3.5 million acres of corn which is like piling on. This is the highest acreage since 1936 and it screamed bearishness for the market. However, as we all know the market went up on the news seemingly having digested all the bearishness before the report. It was a strange move. Having said that, 16.817 billion bushels of corn is a record by a mile versus the 15.34 billion bushels grown two years ago. You would think at a certain point corn will be hitting some headwinds. However, we also have record corn demand currently sitting at 16.06 billion bushels. That is just as mind boggling or even more so than the production number. it makes the price picture looking ahead that much more mysterious. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 17 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 15th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans reacted positively to the USDA report despite being a very big crop. We’ve all become accustomed to the cliche that July weather and pollination affects corn prices and August rains affect soybean prices and soybean production. However, it’s completely obvious this year that we had one of the driest Augusts on record in the United States, but the USDA is still coming in with the 53.5 bushel per acre average. It’s like it doesn’t add up. That might be what the market sentiment is saying at the moment. Most American commentators continue to ask about the spectre of China buying soybeans. However, they have not bought any new crop. From a Canadian perspective this is very understandable considering China is a target of the US trade war. However, there are some still in the industry who are thinking a meeting in October between US and Chinese officials might break that impasse. However, is getting late for that and basis is widening especially in the US northern plains. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 19 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 12th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat It’s an old story for wheat, but it is in rough shape. The Chicago wheat contract as well as Kansas City wheat contract are close to the $5 level and there isn’t much downside because it’s been at this level for so long. For instance, would you want to be short at these levels? Having said that, there has to be some production calamity somewhere else in the world to get these prices moving higher. We seem to have moved past anything they might do that in the Black Sea region even with the hot war continuing on. The same sentiment is clearly resonating throughout Ontario wheat country. Wheat has many benefits in conditioning the soil for future soybean and corn crops. However, it is very difficult to pencil in wheat as profitable at the moment with prices below $6 a bushel. The Canadian dollar does help currently fluttering in the 72-cent level. As always good fall weather largely determines how big the Ontario wheat crop becomes. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar at .7221 US continues to act as a stimulant for Ontario cash grain prices. There are various reasons that this might be happening but there is an expectation that the Bank of Canada might be cutting interest rates shortly. There is also the weakness in some of our employment and economic data that will continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar. Of course, as we all know the ongoing trade negotiation with the United States will always serve as a firecracker of volatility for the value on the Canadian dollar. Of course, when it comes to grain prices, we have our geopolitics and our greater world. It would seem like our grain trading algorithms have dialed in so much bad news that they do not react to an incursion of 20 Russian drones into Poland and Romania. Simply put, big supply is still here in 2025. For instance, in the September USDA report world wheat production was increased 10 MMTs because almost every significant world wheat growing areas had their yield increased. We are now headed into the gut slot of harvest in October. With that we will get basis deterioration probably across the board in every location. However, it will vary where supply have been compromised. Keep in mind, our South American friends will begin planting their soybean crop in October and it is set to be another record. There is no rest for the farmer marketer. Opportunity could present itself around every corner. The challenge for the Ontario farmer is to balance all of these marketing factors and pounce on opportunities. It hasn’t been easy this year in Ontario and that fact alone will present cash price anomalies we might have never thought of before. However, at the same time the border is open for grain to come in so daily market intelligence will be key going ahead. Our risk management never ends, 2025 just represents a year where we continue to adjust it. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

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• Market Trends Report – September & October 2025

  US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

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