Grain Farmers of Ontario

US and the World

It is that time of year again. In many ways August represents the time for the stretch drive in crop development as soybeans need moisture to set pods and corn needs some moisture to finish. It has been somewhat of an uneven year in many areas within the greater North American corn belt. There has been lots of dryness and heat as well as too much rain in some areas. However, as we head into late August it looks like the crop is a good one coming into September. On August 9th the USDA estimated the US corn crop at 61% good to excellent at full 11 percentage points below last year’s 72%. Soybeans were rated at 61% good to excellent, six percentage point below last year’s 68%. A little bit of benign weather going forward and we’ll be able to bring this crop home. The USDA came out with their latest WASDE report on Wednesday August the 12th.

Some of the biggest news from the USDA report had to do with an increase in planted acreage for both corn and soybeans. The USDA estimated an additional 1.4 million acres for both corn and soybeans. This boosted corn acres up to 96.7 million acres and increased production to 16.013 billion bushels. This happened despite a drop in yield by 2.3 bushels per acre at 180.7 bushels per acre. This put corn ending stocks for 2026 and 2027 projected at 1.653 billion bushels down from 1.79 billion bushels last month. If this yield potential is realized the US will have the second largest corn crop on record this year.

Soybeans got the additional 1.4 million acres which translates to 4.519 billion bushels using a trendline yield estimate of 52.7 bushels per acre. This is on planted acreage of 86.8 million acres with harvested acreage at 85.5 million acres. If this comes to fruition we will have the largest American soybean crop in history. New crop US ending stocks came in at 320 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production at 186 MMT and Argentina at 50 MMT. USDA estimated total US wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels a slight cut from the July report.

On Aug 14th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures were at $4.59 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.83 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.92 bu. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.74 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.78 a bushel with the July 2027 contract closing at $7.10 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of Aug 14th, 2026, closed at $82.40/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $89.31/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.23/gallon, higher vs the $2.19/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 14th, 2026, was .7207 US, higher vs the .7096 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario any drought in the deep southwest was broken by early August and now as of August 14th soil moisture across the province has been exceptional to excessive in some areas. This is meant that crops are developing under ideal conditions without the drought stressors from July. Labour Day is still 3 weeks out and producers will be hoping for more benign ideal weather heading into early September. Crops could really benefit.

Wheat harvest is approximately 96% completed according to an estimate from the Grain Farmers of Ontario as of August the 13th. It was the tale of two halves as West of Toronto the harvest was pretty good with good quality during the dry period of late July. However, in eastern Ontario it has been a much tougher battle as rainy weather has led to downgrades and challenges in the field. A new pest called the orange wheat blossom midge has been identified in some Ontario wheat fields, which has led to some surprisingly lower wheat yields in some areas.

Basis levels for grains are lower than they were three weeks ago. To a large extent this has to do with the Canadian dollar up about a cent and a half in the last three weeks. For crops like soybeans and wheat in Ontario that always makes a huge effect on cash basis values, not so much for corn. As we head into September we’ll have to have a close watch on the corn basis with regard to any early market.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.75 to $2.04 over the September 2026 corn futures on Aug 14th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.65 to $1.94 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.82 to $4.20 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.50 to $3.75 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of Aug 14th are approximately $8.00. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.41/bu. range. On Aug 14th the US replacement price for corn was $6.98/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

The USDA did provide a bit of a surprise in August when they gave us a cut in yield but more acres. At the end of the day, we still expect the second largest corn crop in history and the largest soybean crop in history. The tone should be bearish, but it is not. Headlines for the moment are driving this market and with a 1.653-billion-bushel carryout for next year there is support underneath the corn complex.

The rally started previous to the USDA report when news came of the Ukrainians bombing the biggest Russian export grain facility in the Black Sea. At the same time the Russians are bombing Ukrainian port facilities. As per usual, in war truth is always the first casualty. However, these are not the headlines that grain trading algorithms want. There is just too much uncertainty to send prices for the moment south.

Usually, a lower crop yield estimate from USDA in August versus July means the crop is getting smaller. However, there has been very good rainfall across the American Midwest through August. In fact, rainfall has been so much in some areas that flooding is a concern. So, depending on crop ratings you could actually see an increase in yield predicted in the September report which will impact prices. In other words, weather still matters going into September and we could see a yield bump. It is not hot and dry, it’s cooler and more wet. That often can mean a supercharged yield for soybeans in the United States as well as in eastern Canada.

Keep in mind that despite our grain algorithms insatiable appetite for headline news, fundamentals still matter. The corn stocks/use ratio is at 10.1% which is quite low and combining this with a lower new crop carryout number of 1.653 billion bushels can only be seen as resilient for prices. This, even though it is the second largest corn crop on record. Demand is strong, very strong and it needs to be maintained.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

We are looking at the second largest the corn crop in U.S. history with last year’s crop being the biggest. Intuitively, that just should mean lower prices, but demand has been very strong. There is even the possibility of Chinese buying in corn which would be an added dimension to this demand complex.

On August 13th the Rosario Grain Exchange and CONAB raise Argentina and Brazil corn production to a record 70.5 MMT and 143 MMT, respectively. That, coupled with the fact that Argentine corn is the world’s cheapest, adds to the big corn supply situation. The Argentine harvest has now advanced to 77% done. South American production should never be negated, and these big corn numbers are all part of the equation.

The September 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 24.5 cents lower than the December 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

It is an old axiom that soybeans are made in August. So, despite some of the bullish talk coming from the corn and wheat complex, beans have caught some of that wave. However, it cannot be negated that these plentiful rains especially in the central and eastern part of the corn belt could easily boost the yield from 52.7 upward in the next USDA report.

In recent market action soybeans have been a bit of an onlooker to corn and wheat. However, there is still the specter of Chinese demand which has been very good for prices. They have been in the market buying approximately about 8 MMT of the 25 MMT committed to earlier. Expect more news of this especially with the upcoming visit of President Xi to the United States on September 24th.

The September 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15 cents below the November contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 29th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The headlines in the wheat market which are driving algorithms are feeding from the news from the Black Sea where both Russian and Ukrainian grain export facilities have been compromised by war. In fact, in Ukraine they are looking to export about 30MMT of corn, wheat and other oil seeds to get ready for the upcoming corn harvest. That is creating a bottleneck affecting everything. Wheat prices are largely benefiting from these issues in that part of the world. It’s all very fluid it could stop very quickly or vice versa.

These problems in world markets have been a boon to Ontario wheat producers who saw wheat prices sore almost to $9 a bushel during harvest. This is approximately $3 more than a year ago. In fact, many producers have sold wheat $1.50 to $2.00 more than a year ago and it has mostly been based on the problems in the Black Sea with futures spiking. As per usual, a Canadian dollar fluttering in the 70 and 71 cent level US has boosted Ontario cash prices. With wheat futures spiking it has had an acceleration effect on upward price movement.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar simply matters especially for Ontario cash grain prices. On August 14th the noon rate for the loonie was 0.7207 US. This represented the third straight weekly gain for the currency. This is the highest it has reached since June 3rd when it was 72.12 US cents. Of course, this hasn’t been a monumental move, but the US dollar has been losing some momentum, and oil prices are helping depending on what’s happening in the Iran war. Needless to say, currency variations impact the demand for Ontario agricultural commodities and slight changes in this currency can cause 10 to $0.20/bu volatility in cash grain prices very quickly. That’s where standing orders for cash grain price levels can come in very helpful. As per usual, there is always another layer of marketing management considering both the value of the Canadian currency and grain futures prices.

We are moving into a time in September when we will have actual harvest results out of the United States and later on from Ontario. The USDA reducing the yield of the big US corn crop is significant and we will see as we go forward whether this is substantiated by actual harvest results. We will also have the September USDA come out and it will be significant what they say after the beneficial rains that we’ve seen in August. Intuitively, you would think that soybeans would add yield and maybe even corn. However, this is 2026 with continual mini–Black Swan events coming out of the Black Sea and other places. Volatility probably is our only certainty.

In Ontario we need to bring this crop home. Generally speaking, the crops do look good across Ontario even though some areas have had enough rain while others might have had too much. However, we don’t have the devastating drought in eastern Ontario which we had a year ago. This will affect cash markets going forward. Weather surely will also be a key factor in the next 4 weeks.

In those four weeks Ontario producers will need to continue to hone their grain marketing plans. Specifically, in front of harvest we need to recalculate the costs of storing grain and treat them as an opportunity cost. Just because the bins shine on days with a beautiful autumn sun, doesn’t necessarily mean they should be filled. There are choices to be made. Key is always good planning and daily market intelligence. Risk management never gets old. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

It is a critical time of the year in grain markets. In many years mid to late July is a time where the market has already decided where this crop is going. 2026 might be a different year. Widespread hot and droughty weather in Western Europe as well as the threat of the same in North America is sending nervousness throughout the grain complex. On top of this we have all the same geopolitical problems in Ukraine and Russia as well as Iran adding to the uncertainty. This is the backdrop as we head into August. On July 10th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.

The July USDA WASDE report estimated corn production to come in at 16 billion bushels up from 15.995 billion bushels in June. This was based on a yield which remained at 183 bushels per acre with planted acreage at 95.3 million acres. This remains the second largest corn crop on record if it comes to fruition. New crop ending stocks were lowered 125 million bushels down to 2.02 billion bushels. Corn usage in the United States was increased 50 million bushels from June putting it at 16.255 billion bushels.

USDA is predicting the largest soybean crop In U.S. history. The estimate is 4.475 billion bushels with the trendline yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre planted on 85.4 million acres. US new crop ending stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels with old crop stocks coming in at 330 million bushels. USDA left Brazil’s production unchanged at 180 MMT and Argentina at 50 MMT. Total US wheat production is set at 1.536 billion bushels which is down slightly from last month and the smallest wheat crop on record.

On July 24th corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures were at $4.64 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.87 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures was at $12.53 bu. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.78 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $7.14 a bushel with the September 2027 contract closing at $7.46 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of July 24th, 2026, closed at $89.31/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $68.78/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.19/gallon, higher vs the $2.17/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 24th, 2026, was .7096 US, marginally higher vs the .7042 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario generally speaking crops are doing excellent. However, as always there are regional variations with extreme drought in some areas of the deep southwest and south-central Ontario. Eastern Ontario has had much better moisture conditions than they did a year ago. As of the 24th of July, rainfall is needed in many areas of the southwest as corn is roping up and soybeans in some cases are wilting. However, there is still a long way of the growing season to go, and rains would cure much of this. As it is, with normal rainfall Ontario should be looking at good crops this fall.

Wheat harvest continues across the province with good to excellent yields and quite good quality. Very dry conditions in the deepest part of southwestern Ontario made for a good harvest. However, other areas were not as lucky, and it was more challenging to get wheat dried down in the field. However, it continues in eastern and north central Ontario. So far there are very few quality issues.

Basis levels for grains have stayed relatively steady since the last Market Trends report. This is partly due to the relative parity in the value of the Canadian dollar versus what it was three weeks ago at .7042 US. As always, a low Canadian dollar is the stimulus for the Ontario grain cash market. Corn basis levels have been a little stronger and as we go into August that may continue.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.65 to $2.38 over the September 2026 corn futures on July 24th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.65 to $1.94 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $4.34 to $4.70 over the November 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.89 to $4.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of July 24th are approximately $8.25. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $8.91/bu. range. On July 24th the US replacement price for corn was $7.16/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Things are all coming together to move markets higher. We have a confluence of issues that are unusual to come together at one time. What we have is the hot and dry heat dome and drought into Western Europe with the possibility of that also manifesting itself in North America. At the same time, we have the Iran US war which is pressuring the oil market which in turn is dragging grains up with it. All of this happening at the same time is unusual for this time of year.

Keep in mind where we are seasonally with grain markets. The last week in July is usually one when grain markets put in a top and drop into the fall time. That happens about 85% of the time but this year might be different. We might be into a contra seasonal where the crop is getting smaller, as do ending stocks and the price usually goes higher into the fall. The timing this year seems critical.

So, what does this mean? You can make the argument that we have time here to decide which type of market we are in and if you believe prices are going up because forces are coming together to do that, market your grain appropriately and hedge both the downside and upside. That means different things to different farmers and that’s OK, just recognize this current grain environment is incredibly volatile based on the grain fundamentals and our geopolitical concerns.

As always, this time of year, weather is such a big concern. Keep in mind, the super El Nino is still out there and affecting crop development worldwide. In a El Nino year Brazil is supposed to be dry. Between Brazil and Argentina, they produced twice as many soybeans as the United States and if El Nino manifests itself in a big way, there could be some real price fireworks.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

The drought in Europe has had an effect on the corn market. The Europeans produce about 2.3 billion bushels of corn and import about 800 million every year. This means that they will probably be importing more corn this year which has obvious implications for Ontario corn exports.

Keep in mind that these drought concerns whether they be in Europe or the United States are pushing up the price of corn, but it also is reacting to the price of oil. The ongoing tension in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz will continue to have an effect on the price of corn.

The September 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 22.5 cents lower than the December 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans are at contract highs as of July 24th. Of course, this is good news with anybody marketing soybeans but keep in mind these contracts can run very fast with high daily limits. Post those standing market orders optimistically, as they could be hit very quickly.

Soybean prices have also been supported by Chinese buying. Yes, they have finally come into the market, and it has been timely for price as US beans are very competitive against South American soybeans. There is a September meeting between President Trump and President Xi, and this may result in even more buying.

The August 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 7.75 cents above the September contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 37th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The spectre of drought and heat in Europe has had an effect on the wheat market. Keep in mind that all countries in Europe makes it the largest wheat exporter in the world. Combine this with the problems of compromised grain movement in the sea of Azov amid the ongoing war and you have lots of uncertainty. Combine this with the ongoing super El Nino and there could be production problems in other places such as Australia.

In Ontario the wheat crop has been relatively good news with good yields and quality. Quality is always a problem with wheat but for whatever reason this year including the good management of Ontario wheat producers that is not much of a concern. What has been good has been a cash price rally in wheat at harvest time which has pushed prices up over $2.00 a bushel higher than a year ago.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the $0.71 level US which is helping Ontario grain prices. It is always a constant with regard to cash prices and can act as a buffer but in a grain environment where futures are rising significantly it can also act as a supercharger to cash prices. This is the environment that we are in now. If grain futures prices get spooked by heat domes and geopolitical concerns further, it will have an accelerating effect on Ontario cash grain values.

The Canadian dollar is a thinly traded currency, but it has recently been affected by the aggressive nature of the American administration. President Trump has announced 50% tariffs on an assortment of Canadian goods going into the United States starting possibly on August the 19th. Canadians were gobsmacked by this move and so was the government. Serious trade negotiations are about to commence. Regardless of why it happened this is the type of geopolitical concern that really affects the value of the Canadian dollar. Farmers need to be concerned and watchful over the next several weeks to see where the Canadian dollar goes.

With all of this going on it is important to not be crossways with the trend, and the trend is up for prices. However, in this environment volatility is usually running wild. That yet may happen especially depending on a heat dome moving in as well as geopolitical concerns in Iran and Ukraine and Russia. This is all happening without a Black Swan event, but yet again a Black Swan can always happen and with that, we always have to be ready.

Keep in mind that August is always the month that determines soybean yield historically. Also keep in mind, that soybeans are the great liars but at the end of the day always tell the truth. So, they will need rain, just like we need in stretches across southern Ontario. The challenge for Ontario farmers is to hone their marketing plans in this growing bullish grain environment. Have those standing market orders ready and if they hit, set some more even more optimistically. At the same time risk management never grows old. Hedging our risks is always a good thing. At the end of the day, there will be many marketing opportunities. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

It has been a solidly good spring in the American Midwest with no major planting issues. On June 29th USDA estimated 67% of the US corn crop was good to excellent while soybeans we’re rated at 65% good to excellent. June 30th always represents a benchmark for grain markets with the release of the June 30th acreage report. Acreage is important and in past years the June 30th acreage report would often serve as a volatile reminder of how prices can ebb and flow. Sometimes the changes in the report can be dramatic, and sometimes not. 2026 proved to be the latter.

USDA is estimating that there will be 95.3 million acres of corn in the United States this year. This is down 3.5 million acres from last year’s 98.8 million acres of corn. This acreage is the 5th largest on record but points to the second largest corn crop ever after last year. The quarterly corn stocks number came in at 5.29 billion bushels which was up 14% from 2025.

Soybeans were the benefactor from the lower corn numbers. US soybean acreage is set to come in at 85.4 million acres this year. This is 5% higher than a year ago. The quarterly stocks numbers for soybeans came in at 1.06 million bushels which was 5% higher than a year ago. The bigger surprise in the acreage equation was wheat which came in at 42.7 million acres, 1.1 million acres below expectations. This will be the lowest US wheat acreage on record.

On July 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures was at $4.23 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.41 bu. The August 2026 soybean futures was at $11.36 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.47. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.99 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2027 contract closing at $6.89 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of July 3rd, 2026, closed at $68.78/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $84.88/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.17/gallon, lower vs the $2.18/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 3rd, 2026, was .7042 US, down vs the .7155 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario things are looking pretty good. Very hot weather has pushed development in both corn and soybeans. There is dryness in southwestern Ontario where a widespread rain would be welcome especially going into pollination for the corn crop. However, it is a different story in eastern Ontario where they’ve had widespread rains and it is such a different story than last year when drought ruled the day. Winter wheat harvest has commenced in Essex County as of early July and this will ramp up across Ontario depending on the weather in the next couple of weeks.

It’s important to remember that Ontario is a big province with croplands stretching from Windsor to the Quebec border as well as up into northern Ontario and as far West as the Rainy River district. This will not only lead to variable conditions province wide but also differences in cash markets. Producers should always be vigilant of this when marketing their grain.

The Canadian dollar has fallen below the $71 US range over the last couple of weeks which is further added stimulus to Ontario cash prices. This has happened at a time when futures prices have risen slightly compared to the lower values of a few weeks ago. This has caused basis levels to strengthen for both corn and soybeans. Keep in mind the traditional higher basis level for eastern Ontario corn is happening reflecting the lower production numbers from last year’s drought as well as a robust export program from Ontario.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.50 to $2.35 over the September 2026 corn futures on July 3rd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.35 to $1.86 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $4.00 to $4.40 over the August 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.66 to $3.85 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in flux during harvest by as of July 3rd are approximately $7.30. For July 2027 new crop the bid is in the $7.61/bu range. On June 3rd the US replacement price for corn was $6.53/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

It seems like a little different world now. Earlier when we had the war in Iran in the front pages everyday oil prices surged to $120.00 a barrel. In many ways this dragged corn up over $5 a bushel and $12.00 a bushel for soybeans on the futures market. Even though that conflict is not over and there is a 60-day moratorium of understanding, the edginess in the market from those earlier days is gone. Of course, this has led too much lower prices.

Keep in mind that there has been an exit of non-commercial interests in our grain markets. With the war in Iran starting, we saw the funds accumulate more long positions. At the height of this inflation trade, funds were long 300,000 contracts in corn and 200,000 contracts in soybeans. It was a case of money flow and maybe it continues to be as some of these funds are turning back and buying again. Keep in mind the funds are looked at as villains sometimes but as saviours other times. They add a lot of liquidity to our grain market.

Who knows what the immediate future might bring but one lesson we might take from the last few months is the effect on oil prices on just about everything. For instance, we saw corn, soybeans and wheat go up as oil reached $120.00 a barrel. The same could be said with fertilizer and fuel prices. Now that oil is reach levels since before the Iran war everything is down. It is a benchmark lesson for the future. Geopolitical events which push the price of oil, can push everything and when it’s over it’s over and agricultural commodity prices retreat.

Always a variable in the grain market weather is setting up now as quite interesting. In Europe they have had tremendous heat, and this is having an effect on their corn production. For instance, the most active November European corn futures are moving to contract highs as French corn production may fall 30% in 2026. That is completely opposite to what we are expecting in the United States and South America this year. However, it is an example of what can happen if the weather goes South.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

It’s getting to be that time of year when corn is stressed. In other words, it’s getting to be that critical time of year and any weather stress whether that’s lack of rain or too much rain or very hot temperatures can impact corn yield significantly. It’s not perfect in the American Midwest but it’s close. The next few weeks will tell the story going into pollination.

In retrospect, we saw about an 80 cent drop in the price of corn from its highs of $5.06 a bushel. The funds now have a small net long position and if the weather goes sideways, they will likely add to that putting corn in a position to rally again. However, will it be enough to get back to the $5 level? The answer is blowing in the wind depending on whether Mother Nature plays nice.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.75 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 6th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have resisted the price decreases over the last month, sustained by good demand especially in the soybean oil market which continues to have healthy price increases. Yes, the soybean renewable diesel boom in the United States is making a long-term difference. As we all know, soybeans are made in August, so the jury is still out.

An outlier with regard to soybeans is Chinese demand. The Chinese had bought a little bit earlier, but they’ve still not come in and bought the 25 MMT they committed to in an early agreement after the President’s visit to Beijing. Generally speaking, it’s at this time of the year when they would be buying American beans. There has been no incentive to do so up until now as the American beans are cheaper than Brazilian soybeans. Fresh Chinese buying would significantly boost soybean prices at this time of year.

The August 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 5.25 cents below the September contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

After reaching highs earlier in the spring wheat prices plummeted and now are seemingly rebounding again. Part of the price increase earlier had to do with dry weather in the American wheat country and the war in Iran. Keep in mind that Europe has had extreme heat and drought which is affecting wheat there and this might pressure prices in the weeks to come. However, keep in mind that prices now are still higher than they were a year ago. As always, there is wheat everywhere in the world filling supply gaps. The latest USDA report reiterated the trend by saying the US has the smallest wheat crop on record.

In Ontario early reports from Essex County are showing pretty good wheat yields and pretty good quality. Wheat is turning quickly across the province and the wheat harvest will likely proceed depending on the weather going forward. Cash prices have also been bolstered by a slight rebound in wheat futures and a Canadian dollar in the $0.70 range.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

With the Canadian dollar currently sitting at .7042 US there’s been considerable stimulus added to Canadian cash grain prices. As always, the Canadian dollar is a thinly traded currency and generally is at an inverse value to American dollar. However, it has also been buffeted by a Canadian economy that is slowed and interest rates expectations which have changed. This has been accentuated by the American decision not to renew CUSMA. Will the Canadian dollar go under $0.70 US? It is all so hard to say but eventually it will start the long March back to 80 cents and even $0.90 US. It will always be an added layer within our Ontario grain marketing plans.

Geopolitics continues to be very real, but it also is so dialed in to our grain trading algorithms. The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran runs out on August the 18th and depending on what might happen will also have an effect on a grain price volatility. At the same time Ukrainian drones are reaching deep inside of Russia causing supply constraints and disarray within the Russian war narrative. The possibility these events might reignite oil and grain prices will likely continue.

It is often said that rain makes grain and that is surely true in 2026 as any other year. There is also the narrative that the greatest cure for low prices is low prices. In that regard over the last year and a half we had seen grain demand acceleration. There has been no demand destruction because of high prices however, at a certain point when supply is constrained in some way, we will need grain prices to rise to ration demand. This always needs to be kept in mind within our marketing plans.

As we move into the later parts of July, as stated earlier we will be getting into the critical pollination period for corn, where moisture and mild temperatures are always preferred. After that we will be looking toward August and the soybean pod set and this is always critical to production going forward. The challenge for Ontario producers is to continue to refine their marketing plans to capture the marketing opportunities that will inevitably occur. Risk management never gets old. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 6, 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

It is that time of year again when we’re in the homestretch hurtling toward most critical crop development time of the year. Often times, seasonality tells us that some of the best prices for new crop are had in mid-June and early July. This is the time when the crop can go through difficult times during the growing season. However, so far things look pretty good. US corn planting was 97% complete as of June 8th with soybeans coming in at 92%. 66% of the US corn crop looked good to excellent as of June 8th about four points less than last year’s 71%. USDA estimated that 65% of soybeans that had emerged were in good to excellent condition. It is a long road; the USDA released their latest report on June the 11th.

The USDA made few changes in their June WASDE report. It is sticking with their estimate of 15.995 billion bushels of corn based on an average yield of 183 bushels per acre which will put us at the second largest corn crop ever after last year. Acreage remains the same at 95.3 million acres. Total domestic use for US corn is forecast at 13.055 billion bushels with corn exports projected now would be 3.15 billion bushels. New crop ending corn ending stocks are set to come in at 1.96 billion bushels. Old crop corn ending stocks also were bumped up sitting at 2.145 billion bushels. Brazilian and Argentinian corn production was also raised to 138 MMT and 43 MMT respectively.

On the soybean side of the equation the USDA made no changes from last month’s report. We are still looking at 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans at a trend line estimate of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If this comes to fruition, it’ll be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. One telling statistics from the USDA report was the US winter wheat production which was cut from 1.048 billion bushels to 1.029 billion bushels. This will mean that is the smallest US winter wheat crop since 1965.

On June 12th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.12 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.40 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.13 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.84 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.42 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of June 12th, 2026, closed at $84.88/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $105.42/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.18/gallon, lower vs the $2.22/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 12th, 2026, was .7155 US, down vs the .7272 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

A long stretch of good weather his certainly been good for planting progress across Ontario. For the most part both corn and soybeans have been planted as of June the 13th. Rainfall has been in short supply which is added planting progress. There is some uneven emergence in heavier soils but the big issue going into later June is moisture. The crop will need that to give it a head start on what could be a very hot Month of July.

Winter wheat continues to march toward harvest time. It has benefited from some ideal temperatures earlier in June and later in May. Lots of fungicide application is apparent as you drive by Ontario wheat fields. As it stands now we’re looking at 1.17 million acres of wheat, 2.89 million acres of soybeans and 2.32 million acres of corn in Ontario this spring.

Basis levels have actually been maintained versus the last Market Trends report partly because the Canadian dollar is lower at .7155 US. This has mitigated the price decline regarding basis as futures have declined significantly. With the Canadian dollar showing weakness old crop corn basis is actually increased slightly while the soybean basis has maintained where it was.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.50 to $2.22 over the July 2026 corn futures on June 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.40 to $4.15 over the July 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.30 to $3.60 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.04. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.00/bu range. On June 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.26/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

There has been a huge move down in grain futures prices, so aggressive you got to wonder the reason why? Although the vagaries of trading algorithms can be complex at times in retrospect this is pretty obvious. The funds had held huge, long positions most of the spring in grains and they bailed out over the last several weeks. Part of the reason for this is because of the improved crop weather and the progress of the crop. It also had to do with following the energy markets.

The war in Iran has had a lot to do with this. Initially there was a price spike in oil, which reached $105 a barrel in mid-May. Grains tended to follow this pattern and funds were using it as somewhat of a hedge. However, as ceasefires grew longer, the trading algorithms sent energy prices down currently at $84 a barrel. As of June 14th, there is a permanent settlement supposedly in the works, which could soften up the energy markets even more. Grain prices have fallen in concert.

Keep in mind that much of this market volatility has to do with geopolitics but also something different in 2026. Trading algorithms are dialed into what the President of the United States says on social media and this becomes trading behavior the next day. It is also being affected by predictive markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where you can bet on just about anything. In many ways, is just another form of demand, something that is very difficult to measure.

That new reality is still grounded in grain fundamentals even though at times it’s very hard to see. For instance, we have been given pretty good opportunities to price grain over the last several months before the funds left. This new predictive supercharged speculation giveth and taketh away. It surely will continue.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

Old crop corn is just a long story now having lost easily $0.60 over the last 30 days. Keep in mind despite what the algorithms our trading at the crop is not made in May and June, it’s usually July and August.

That’s when new crop is made but we can’t ignore what has happened to new crop prices. Your December futures were trading just at $5 a bushel just over a month ago and of course it’s down now to lows we seen last October. Will we get back to that $5 level? It seems unlikely now but of course if hot and dry hits in July there is precedent for that.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 6th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Believe it or not soybeans don’t like wet feet and in some parts of the American growing area that’s exactly what they have. It is a completely different scenario than what we have here in Ontario. However, as we all know it’s usually August weather that determines soybean yield and high temperatures and sunshine can eliminate those wet feet very quickly. Needless to say, it is a reminder that weather will continue to dominate the health of this crop.

The energy markets have also had an effect on the soybean market but less so than in corn partly because of the strength in soybean oil. The soybean oil market has also retreated in concert with oil but not as much as might be expected given the dynamism of that market. The US policy toward biodiesel is really helping.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 5.25 cents below the August contract considered bearish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 20th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The wheat market has broken hard over the last 30 days and in many ways, it doesn’t quite add up. We’re looking at the smallest American winter wheat crop since 1965 with crop conditions in Nebraska and Kansas very poor. As per usual there is wheat everywhere in the world except maybe in the United States with potential getting less and less. Despite that, the funds have exited large parts of the agricultural commodity market and the wheat was not immune from that.

In Ontario producers have seen approximately a dollar decrease in the price of new crop wheat over the last month, a bitter pill but still much higher than a year ago. Despite the bearishness in wheat the Ontario crop does look good going into July and producers will be hoping for good quality. That would put Ontario producers at a great advantage especially with the Americans having the smallest crop in 60 years.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar has been weaker based on a number of reasons but there has been a call from the American President regarding the 51st state once again. Anytime that that happens it usually drives down the Canadian dollar and this time was no exception. Also too, we have slipped into a technical recession having a couple quarters of negative economic growth. Some of this has come from the tariff effect from the United States on manufacturing in Ontario. As it is, the Canadian dollar is usually in an inverse relationship with the US dollar. However, the Canadian economy needs a boost or at least a boost of good economic news to take the loonie higher.

Basis values for Ontario grains will be largely dependent on the crop that we get this year. At the present time, all things look good except for maybe some dryness in southwestern Ontario. We need to remember last year eastern Ontario had continual drought and that it resulted in much better cash basis values this past winter and spring. Any such production calamity in Ontario would produce the same type of thing next year. Of course, the value of the Canadian dollar will always impact basis levels especially for soybeans and wheat.

What is it going to take to rally these grain markets? Well, bad weather on the other guys farm is usually what does it with regard to reducing overall yield. However, the weather is always a wild card, and it will continue to be. Keep in mind another wild card in this might be China who has been very limited in any American buying but has made some vague buying commitments. If the Chinese were to come along and buy 25 million bushels of soybeans in a year like this one which has projected carry out of 310 million bushels, that would shake up this market. Keep in mind, markets go both ways and at the present time we’re at the bottom of a pretty tough four-week time frame.

Grain surpluses are building. For instance, USDA recently increased their outlook for Brazilian corn production to be a new record at 138 MMT. Argentina is looking at record corn as well and we know the Americans are looking at their second biggest crop ever. One thing that means is Ontario producers will be challenged to find their profitable niche in this vastly bigger grain world. However, that’s partly what risk management is for, finding profitability amid challenging circumstances. What it will take will be daily market intelligence. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

Planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. It is that time of year when the rubber meets the road with regard to all the plans put in place over the last few months. As of May, the 10th 57% of corn was planted in the US and 49% of intended soybean acreage was in the ground. So we’re off to a very good start. However, as every farmer knows there’s lots of risks planting those fields and there’s lots of risk ahead. Markets have been volatile. On Tuesday May the 12th the USDA released their latest WASDE report. The May report is USDA’s first detailed look into crop production for the 2026/2027 crop year.

USDA is predicting new crop corn to be 15.995 billion bushels based on the yield guess of 183 bushels per acre. This was within pre report estimates and if it comes to fruition, it will be the second largest corn crop on record trailing only last year’s 17.02-billion-bushel blockbuster. The planted acreage is set to come in at 95.3 million acres with harvested acreage projected at 87.4 million acres. It really wasn’t a big surprise with regard to these fundamental numbers. The corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to be 1.957 billion bushels. Total corn usage is estimated to be 16.205 billion bushels.

On the soybean side of the equation, USDA estimated numbers of 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans with a trendline yield of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If it comes to fruition, this will be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. US domestic soybean stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels which was on the bottom end of the pre report estimates. The Brazilians are set to produce another 186 MMT crop of soybeans and the Argentinians are set to come in at 48 MMTs. USDA estimated 2026/2027 US wheat production to be 1.561 billion bushels which is a decrease from the 1.921 billion bushels last May. If this production comes to fruition, it will be the lowest wheat production since 1972.

On May 15th corn and soybeans were about the same and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.77 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.70. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.35 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.85 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.05 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of May 15th, 2026, closed at $105.42/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $94.40/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.22/gallon, higher vs the $2.21/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7272 US, down vs the .7311 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

The Grain Farmers of Ontario’s estimation of planting put corn planting at 52% complete, soybeans are at 16 per cent complete, and spring cereals planting is 62 per cent complete across the province as of Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Weather has been uneven early in the season and especially cold going into mid-May. Producers will be hoping for hot weather for good crop emergence and adequate rainfall to get the crop off to a good start.

Rainfall has been a bit on the light side in some areas of the province as of mid-May. In fact, although some wheat fields look very good some of the wheat fields that got side dressed late because of tough ground conditions are in need of a good rain. So far at least in the deep southwest of Ontario that has not happened. Weather is always a dominant factor with regard to crop progress. So far it is led to slow development, but of course we’re hoping for a quick turnaround.

Ontario corn basis levels have hardly changed from the last Market Trends report. In fact if anything they are a bit lower. Soybeans on the other hand have much higher basis levels which are reflection of the lower Canadian dollar, higher futures prices and the lower soybean supplies in eastern Canada. The Canadian dollar currently at .7272 US continues to add stimulus to Ontario grain prices.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.40 to $2.05 over the July 2026 corn futures on May 15th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.63 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.45 to $4.20 over the July 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.16 to $3.45 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.72. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.66/bu range. On May 15th the US replacement price for corn was $6.74/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Our grain marketing reality is growing a little bit more mixed. A month ago, one of the main topics of discussion was the Iran war and how that had affected both fertilizer and fuel prices. By extension the grain markets rallied. However, that war has now become more dialed into the trading algorithms and a month-long ceasefire has mitigated some of the effect. Needless to say, oil prices are still elevated and the war could continue to flare up anytime. It is truly a wild card for grain producers this year across the North American corn belt.

That might be the wild card but of course there is always the weather which has a big effect on what’s happening ahead. For instance, by the weekend of May 16th about 70% of the US corn crop could be planted as well as 2/3 of the soybean crop. Things have turned bearish and that’s partly because of the disappointment in Beijing and partly because of the great crop planting progress and the benign weather. It is leaning into a bearish market environment.

If the weather decides to play nice, we know the rest of the story. We will have big crops and probably rising ending stocks. However, on the other hand if there is a hiccup involved with regard to crop weather in supply, we will likely see a mitigating effect on the price dropping. It is shaping up to be a super El Nino year. Looking back at the past super El Nino years, 2015, 1997 and 2023, all had record corn yields.

Wheat is at an interesting point. The Chicago wheat contract which is especially relative to producers in Ontario has been dragged up by the HRW wheat price rally. This is happened because of the dry weather in the US southern plains. It is key because the United States will be at a low ebb for HRW for another year. This should support to some extent the Chicago wheat market. As always, with wheat grown everywhere, cheaper foreign wheat always has the potential to show up in US ports.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

The US old crop corn ending stocks sitting at 2.1 billion bushels is putting a drag on the corn price. However, it is much higher than it was a year ago and has constantly threatened to go through $5 US. However, it has not done that and backed off currently at $4.81 a bushel. New crop ending stocks at 1.96 billion bushels are telling us there’s not a lot of concern. Old crop prices reflect this. We’ll have to see what the weather does this summer.

The December contract breaking through $5 is a tough ask. Seasonality is always part of that and traditionally that has been mid-June for the highest new crop prices. However, over the past five years the seasonality seems to have changed because the best new crop prices being in the first part of May. That possibly might have happened this year. Weather risk and renewed war risk will likely be two factors to break that $5 barrier.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have been on call with regard to any news coming out of China. At this point there hasn’t been specific numbers mentioned with regard to any type of renewed Chinese demand coming out of the presidential meeting in Beijing. Positive news out of that meeting might have taken the nearby month into the $12.00 futures territory. As it is now, there is really no shortage of soybeans in the United States or in the world at any level.

Soybean prices fell after the summit with funds taking profits from the lack of news. However, there still could be increased Chinese buying but it might be more likely that it comes later in the season, when soybeans could be cheaper. Cheap always is the great elixir for Chinese soybean buying.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced .25 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat went up the limit in one trading session of the week ending May 16th. In the May USDA report all wheat production was down to 1.561 billion bushels, and this was 170 million bushels below trade estimates. The HRW wheat was estimated at 515 million bushels which is nearly 290 million bushels below last year. So, for whatever reason, we went up the limit but keep in mind most US wheat is still priced out of global markets. At the moment it’s a US phenomenon seeing this wheat price higher, at a certain point it will likely disappear. Needless to say, it does represent opportunity to price wheat.

The Ontario wheat crop could sure use a rain in some areas, but generally looks good. Quality issues can always be a problem when it comes to wheat but drier than normal usually works well. Prices are also a dollar plus higher this year compared to what was received last harvest season in 2025. The Canadian dollar certainly helps with that. Producers will be hoping as the weather grows warmer wheat finds its sweet spot to bring in bumper yields.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 72 cent level US. Over the last several weeks it is gyrated between 73 cents and 71 cents US bouncing in an inverse fashion to where the US dollar goes. At a certain point there is going to be a breakout to the upside and when it does it will be a problem for Ontario cash grain prices. As it is, stronger USD economic data and trade uncertainty with Canada hasn’t been good for the loonie. $0.80 US still seems like a long way off, thankfully for Ontario grain prices.

The geopolitical situation continues to be a bit of a hot mess, but a hot mess that the grain trading algorithms have readily devoured. Whether it is Russia and Ukraine or Iran and the United States or Israel and Lebanon grain algorithms have adjusted. However, oil prices are still elevated which help grain prices generally. In the bearish fundamental environment for grain, which we are in now these geopolitical concerns can add a lot of spark to the market at unusual times.

Keep in mind that we are in a time frame of grain seasonality we’re often times you can capture new crop marketing opportunities. It is also true that you can sell grain throughout the year successfully especially if you have market orders set. Capturing those market opportunities can be elusive especially in markets like these affected by geopolitical events beyond the grain fundamentals.

Despite that, we move on. Here in Ontario, we have the challenge once again this spring of getting the crop in the ground. That can always certainly be a challenge, but it’s also challenged to market our crops in a profitable manner and capture those marketing opportunities when they come along. Grain continues to move out into the export market to compete with cheaper options. At the same time there are value added opportunities here at home built up by our industry overtime. Daily market intelligence remains key. Risk management never grows old. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.