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Run the Numbers

CJ Gustafson
Run the Numbers
Último episódio

337 episódios

  • Run the Numbers

    How Oura Built a $1.4 Billion Business Around a Tiny Ring

    10/09/2026 | 34min
    How did Oura turn a tiny piece of wearable hardware into a $1.4 billion business? CJ breaks down the numbers behind Oura’s IPO filing and the surprisingly powerful business model hiding behind the ring.

    SPONSORS:
    Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
    Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
    RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
    Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
    Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
    EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    LINKS: 
    Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    TIMESTAMPS:
    0:00 Oura Files S1
    2:24 Key Revenue Stats
    3:35 Revenue Per Ring
    4:14 Gross Margin Breakdown
    5:31 The Weird $924M "Net Loss"
    6:11 Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Position
    7:20 Headcount and Bankers
    11:01 What Oura Actually Does
    13:46 Go-to-Market Channels
    15:57 Why Oura Rejects the "Fitness Tracker" Label
    16:49 Who's Actually Buying It
    21:26 Global Penetration Is Still Low
    21:54 The $84M Battery Problem
    22:56 Aggressive Growth Spend
    24:16 Samsung's Patent Complaint
    25:00 The Sleep Accuracy Class Action
    25:17 Former CEO Lawsuit
    25:52 Customer Concentration Risk
    26:31 Supply Chain and Tariff Exposure
    27:07 Clean Governance, No Material Weaknesses
    27:20 The Cap Table
    27:44 Oura's Massive Stock Buybacks
    29:29 The RSU Vesting Mechanics
    30:34 Tax Withholding on Settlement
    31:07 Valuation: $16B at 11x Revenue
    31:34 Who Do You Comp Oura To
    32:34 Miscellaneous Filing Details
    33:14 Final Take
  • Run the Numbers

    What 20 Years of Software Investing Says About AI | Matt Hedberg

    07/09/2026 | 51min
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Matt Hedberg, a sell-side equity analyst at RBC who has covered software for more than 20 years. They break down how AI compares to the cloud transition, why traditional software moats are changing, what separates management teams that will actually capitalize on AI, and why cash, customer relationships, data, and technical leadership matter more than ever.

    SPONSORS:
    Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
    Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
    Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
    RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
    Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
    EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    LINKS: 
    Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
    Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-hedberg/
    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    RBC Capital Markets: This content is based on information available at the time it was recorded, and is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It is outside the scope of this communication, to consider whether it is suitable for you, and your financial objectives. For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see: https://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?entityId=1. For Disclaimer, see: https:/www.rbccm.com/en/policies-disclaimers.page.
  • Run the Numbers

    Andy Ellis: How to Lead Without Becoming the Hero, the Villain, or the Bottleneck

    03/09/2026 | 1h
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with leadership coach and former Akamai executive Andy Ellis. They break down why being indispensable can actually hurt your career, why managers shouldn’t automatically replace someone who leaves, how hero-villain thinking leads to bad decisions, and what great delegation and leadership actually look like.

    SPONSORS:
    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
    Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
    Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
    Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
    RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
    Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
    EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    LINKS: 
    Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
    Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/csoandy/
    Company: https://www.csoandy.com/
    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    TIMESTAMPS:
    0:00 Jero and Villain Stories
    1:43 Welcome to Run the Numbers
    2:53 Andy's Book: 1% Leadership
    7:44 Rule 1: Don't Replace People Immediately
    14:04 Rule 2: Don't Become Indispensable
    16:02 How Andy Learned to Speak Finance
    22:35 Rule 3: Don't Tell Yourself Hero/Villain Stories
    26:59 The 5K Race Mindset Shift
    31:01 Rule 4: Don't Overspecify Delegation
    35:59 Rule 5: Don't Obsess Over Your Strengths
    38:23 The Six Leadership Disciplines
    43:45 The Vendor Rebuff Email
    47:45 Why Leaders Avoid Saying No
    50:28 Story: The Guinness Bartender Promotion
    53:52 When Metrics Get Gamed
    54:11 Asking Better Questions Segment
    59:07 Where to Get the Book
  • Run the Numbers

    40 Years of IPOs with Jay Ritter: What the Data Actually Says

    27/08/2026 | 54min
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Jay Ritter. They break down what Apple, Nvidia, the dot-com boom, and today’s AI giants can teach us about IPOs, why companies leave money on the table on day one, why firms stay private longer, and what the data actually says about long-term IPO performance.

    SPONSORS:
    Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
    Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
    Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
    Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
    RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
    EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    LINKS: 
    Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
    Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-ritter-1323861/
    Company: https://www.ufl.edu/
    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    TIMESTAMPS:
    0:00 Preview and Intro
    3:10 Meet Jay Ritter, Mr. IPO
    4:02 The Original 1983 Question
    5:08 PCs, Internet, and AI Compared
    9:36 Network Effects
    14:46 Sitzfleisch: Outlasting the Field
    16:10 Where Have All the IPOs Gone
    23:29 IPOs as Relationship-Building
    26:31 Why Investors Tolerate Founder Control
    29:16 Dual-Class Stock's Origins
    30:21 How Jay's Thinking Evolved
    31:36 Why Boards Don't Get Angry
    34:39 Banks' Real Client: Institutions
    37:08 Book Building
    38:56 Why Direct Listings Haven't Taken Over
    39:57 What Goldman Is Really Selling
    41:57 Sentiment vs. Long-Term Performance
    43:13 Does Staying Private Help Society
    49:35 Asking Better Questions with EY
    52:12 Are Markets Efficient
  • Run the Numbers

    How AI Is Rewriting Product-Market Fit, Pricing, and Go-to-Market

    24/08/2026 | 45min
    CJ sits down with Rebecca Schwartz of Tabs, Fred Havemeyer of Fleet AI, and Rahul Rekhi of Rogo for a live conversation about what it actually takes to build an AI-native company.

    SPONSORS:
    RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
    Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
    Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
    Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
    Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
    Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
    EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups

    LINKS: 
    Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
    https://www.tabs.com/
    https://fleetai.com/
    https://www.rogo.com/
    CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
    Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

    TIMESTAMPS:
    0:00 Preview and Intro
    1:16 Welcome to Run the Numbers
    3:17 Meet the Panel: Rebecca, Fred, Rahul
    9:52 How Rogo Found PMF
    13:47 How Tabs Found PMF
    14:51 Growth Rates: Headcount and Revenue
    16:23 The Real Hiring Constraint
    17:21 What "Forward Deployed" Actually Means
    18:53 What's Blocking AI Adoption Now
    20:19 How Sales Hiring Has Changed
    24:34 How Go-to-Market Has Changed
    25:28 Pricing Models: Then vs. Now
    28:18 Tabs' Pricing Evolution
    29:20 What the Finance Team Looks Like
    31:00 How Far You Can Push Outsourced Accounting
    32:43 Managing AI Gross Margins
    35:07 The North Star Metric for AI Companies
    37:02 Token Spend vs. Per-Seat Pricing
    39:34 Asking Better Questions: What Counts as ARR
    41:38 Biggest Bug in Cash to Collections
    43:05 Closing Advice for Founders
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Sobre Run the Numbers
Run the Numbers is a business podcast about financial metrics and business models for CFOs, aspiring CFOs, finance leaders, and ambitious people operating tech startups. Hosted by CJ Gustafson, CFO and writer of Mostly Metrics, the show shares lessons, frameworks, and operator insights from the trenches as a tech exec. Think of it as a playbook for the things CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, covering SaaS metrics, annual budgeting, forecasting, headcount, equity, dilution, fundraising, and the decisions that drive performance and growth.
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