Run the Numbers

How did Oura turn a tiny piece of wearable hardware into a $1.4 billion business? CJ breaks down the numbers behind Oura’s IPO filing and the surprisingly powerful business model hiding behind the ring.
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SPONSORS:
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Oura Files S1
2:24 Key Revenue Stats
3:35 Revenue Per Ring
4:14 Gross Margin Breakdown
5:31 The Weird $924M "Net Loss"
6:11 Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Position
7:20 Headcount and Bankers
11:01 What Oura Actually Does
13:46 Go-to-Market Channels
15:57 Why Oura Rejects the "Fitness Tracker" Label
16:49 Who's Actually Buying It
21:26 Global Penetration Is Still Low
21:54 The $84M Battery Problem
22:56 Aggressive Growth Spend
24:16 Samsung's Patent Complaint
25:00 The Sleep Accuracy Class Action
25:17 Former CEO Lawsuit
25:52 Customer Concentration Risk
26:31 Supply Chain and Tariff Exposure
27:07 Clean Governance, No Material Weaknesses
27:20 The Cap Table
27:44 Oura's Massive Stock Buybacks
29:29 The RSU Vesting Mechanics
30:34 Tax Withholding on Settlement
31:07 Valuation: $16B at 11x Revenue
31:34 Who Do You Comp Oura To
32:34 Miscellaneous Filing Details
33:14 Final Take

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Matt Hedberg, a sell-side equity analyst at RBC who has covered software for more than 20 years. They break down how AI compares to the cloud transition, why traditional software moats are changing, what separates management teams that will actually capitalize on AI, and why cash, customer relationships, data, and technical leadership matter more than ever.
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SPONSORS:
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-hedberg/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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RBC Capital Markets: This content is based on information available at the time it was recorded, and is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It is outside the scope of this communication, to consider whether it is suitable for you, and your financial objectives. For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see: https://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?entityId=1. For Disclaimer, see: https:/www.rbccm.com/en/policies-disclaimers.page.

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with leadership coach and former Akamai executive Andy Ellis. They break down why being indispensable can actually hurt your career, why managers shouldn’t automatically replace someone who leaves, how hero-villain thinking leads to bad decisions, and what great delegation and leadership actually look like.
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SPONSORS:
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/csoandy/
Company: https://www.csoandy.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Jero and Villain Stories
1:43 Welcome to Run the Numbers
2:53 Andy's Book: 1% Leadership
7:44 Rule 1: Don't Replace People Immediately
14:04 Rule 2: Don't Become Indispensable
16:02 How Andy Learned to Speak Finance
22:35 Rule 3: Don't Tell Yourself Hero/Villain Stories
26:59 The 5K Race Mindset Shift
31:01 Rule 4: Don't Overspecify Delegation
35:59 Rule 5: Don't Obsess Over Your Strengths
38:23 The Six Leadership Disciplines
43:45 The Vendor Rebuff Email
47:45 Why Leaders Avoid Saying No
50:28 Story: The Guinness Bartender Promotion
53:52 When Metrics Get Gamed
54:11 Asking Better Questions Segment
59:07 Where to Get the Book

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Jay Ritter. They break down what Apple, Nvidia, the dot-com boom, and today’s AI giants can teach us about IPOs, why companies leave money on the table on day one, why firms stay private longer, and what the data actually says about long-term IPO performance.
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SPONSORS:
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-ritter-1323861/
Company: https://www.ufl.edu/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and Intro
3:10 Meet Jay Ritter, Mr. IPO
4:02 The Original 1983 Question
5:08 PCs, Internet, and AI Compared
9:36 Network Effects
14:46 Sitzfleisch: Outlasting the Field
16:10 Where Have All the IPOs Gone
23:29 IPOs as Relationship-Building
26:31 Why Investors Tolerate Founder Control
29:16 Dual-Class Stock's Origins
30:21 How Jay's Thinking Evolved
31:36 Why Boards Don't Get Angry
34:39 Banks' Real Client: Institutions
37:08 Book Building
38:56 Why Direct Listings Haven't Taken Over
39:57 What Goldman Is Really Selling
41:57 Sentiment vs. Long-Term Performance
43:13 Does Staying Private Help Society
49:35 Asking Better Questions with EY
52:12 Are Markets Efficient

CJ sits down with Rebecca Schwartz of Tabs, Fred Havemeyer of Fleet AI, and Rahul Rekhi of Rogo for a live conversation about what it actually takes to build an AI-native company.
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SPONSORS:
RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cj
Pulley is an equity management platform that lets you issue options, model dilution, and complete 409As without your cap table turning into a spreadsheet disaster. Founders raising, hiring, and scaling use Pulley to keep equity clean and stay focused on building. Learn more or request a demo at https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Maximor is an autonomous finance platform that runs order-to-cash, procure-to-pay, the close, cash management, and reporting on self-learning agents instead of a dozen disconnected tools. One PE-backed customer posts 98% of transactions directly to its ERP, with the remaining 2% routed to a human for review. You pay for outcomes, not seats. See it at https://www.maximor.ai/
Brex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered workflows that enforce expense policies at the point of sale, match receipts automatically, and reduce month-end close from weeks to hours. Thousands of companies, including Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash, already run on Brex. Stop asking A-level finance talent to do B-level admin work. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Anrok is the sales tax platform that watches your exposure everywhere, automates compliance, and flags risk before it turns into a surprise back-tax letter from a state you've never set foot in. Companies like Anthropic, Notion, and Vanta already trust Anrok to stay ahead of rules that move faster than any spreadsheet can. Talk to a sales tax expert for a personalized exposure estimate at https://www.anrok.com/rtn
EY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
https://www.tabs.com/
https://fleetai.com/
https://www.rogo.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and Intro
1:16 Welcome to Run the Numbers
3:17 Meet the Panel: Rebecca, Fred, Rahul
9:52 How Rogo Found PMF
13:47 How Tabs Found PMF
14:51 Growth Rates: Headcount and Revenue
16:23 The Real Hiring Constraint
17:21 What "Forward Deployed" Actually Means
18:53 What's Blocking AI Adoption Now
20:19 How Sales Hiring Has Changed
24:34 How Go-to-Market Has Changed
25:28 Pricing Models: Then vs. Now
28:18 Tabs' Pricing Evolution
29:20 What the Finance Team Looks Like
31:00 How Far You Can Push Outsourced Accounting
32:43 Managing AI Gross Margins
35:07 The North Star Metric for AI Companies
37:02 Token Spend vs. Per-Seat Pricing
39:34 Asking Better Questions: What Counts as ARR
41:38 Biggest Bug in Cash to Collections
43:05 Closing Advice for Founders