The China-Global South Podcast

Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.
Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.
AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
Kenya's landmark China debt deal
Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
Why AidData challenges the narrative
Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
China's evolving lending strategy
The future of sovereign debt relief
Show Notes:
AidData: Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
The China-Global South Project: Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness.
The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same time.
Ker Gibbs, a longtime China-based executive and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explores this contradiction in his new book, The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities. Ker joins Eric from San Francisco to discuss his decades of experience working in China and what companies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere need to understand before entering the Chinese market today.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
China's competing narratives of economic strength and weakness
Why weak consumer demand remains a major challenge
The role of exports in sustaining China's growth model
How Xi Jinping's policies are reshaping the economy
What foreign companies need to know before entering the China market
Why China's economic trajectory matters for the Global South
Show Notes:
Amazon: The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities by Ker Gibbs
The New York Times: China's Spending Slowdown Deepens as Households Tighten Their Belts by Keith Bradsher
Reuters: G7 Leaders Tackle Reliance on China for Critical Minerals
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.
Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
Trump's changing approach to Africa
The China "debt trap" debate
U.S.-China competition in Africa
Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?
Show Notes:
Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries.
Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
China's potential gains from the Iran war
Energy insecurity and the global transition shift
Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech
Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role
The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains
Is China the biggest winner of the crisis?
Show Notes:
The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory
The China-Global South Project: Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action by Li Shuo
The China-Global South Project: Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty by Li Shuo
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan.
But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals.
Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
Why Brazil became China's top investment destination
BYD, EVs, and China's growing auto dominance
Chinese investments in Brazil's energy and mining sectors
How U.S.-China tensions are reshaping Latin America
Brazil's role in China's Global South strategy
The future of China-Brazil trade and industrial ties
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth