Eye On The Market

In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video here

On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here

While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated content and the increasing democratization of text-to-video tools used to create it, the value of the legacy content moat in film/tv libraries and the best movies of the 21st century (as ranked by me). View video here

Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender balance of psychiatric medication. View video here  

In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has been supporting US equity markets since 2011; and pictures from Chilliwack, Canada. View video here