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Episódios Disponíveis

5 de 77

Matt Smith: Gold, The Changing World Order & USA Strategic Investment in Critical Mineral
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Matt Smith to the show. Matt Smith is Co-Author of "The Preparation" & Host of "Doug Casey's Take" Podcast. The conversation centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and potential global financial reset. Smith discusses the unprecedented rise in gold prices, noting it has topped $4,040 and suggesting this bull market is unique. He believes the United States and China may have an unspoken agreement to use gold as a "liquidity sink" to manage massive economic challenges, particularly the enormous $175 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Smith argues that the current gold price surge is not just about preservation of capital, but potentially wealth creation. He points to historical comparisons, such as housing prices measured in gold terms, which have dramatically shifted over the past decades. Morgan Stanley's recent recommendation of 20% portfolio allocation to gold underscores the metal's growing importance. The discussion explores broader geopolitical and economic trends, including potential monetary resets, the role of critical minerals, and alternative educational paths. Smith is skeptical of traditional higher education, instead advocating for a more experiential learning approach outlined in his book "The Preparation", which he co-authored with Doug Casey. Regarding gold and precious metals, Smith believes we are in the early stages of a significant market transformation. He sees gold as uniquely positioned to serve as a monetary reset mechanism, with potentially dramatic price increases ahead. He suggests the price could reach extraordinary levels, potentially hitting $23,000 per ounce as part of a broader economic recalibration. The conversation touches on various global economic dynamics, including trade wars, critical mineral strategies, and potential geopolitical shifts. Throughout, Smith maintains a pragmatic yet cautious perspective on current economic trends, emphasizing the potential for significant structural changes in the global monetary system.
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Josh Young: The Commodity Super Cycle | Oil & Gas, Silver and Gold
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The podcast delves into a comprehensive discussion about the oil and gas markets, commodity cycles, and investment opportunities. Young provides a compelling thesis for oil and natural gas, centered on significant global underinvestment in exploration and production over the past decade. He argues that the current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, which paradoxically creates an attractive investment opportunity. The fundamental driver of his bullish stance is the persistent 1% annual demand growth for oil, which has remained consistent despite predictions of decline due to electric vehicles and alternative energy. Regarding supply dynamics, Young highlights the dramatic reduction in exploration and capital expenditures in the oil and gas sector. He notes that global oil production investments have dropped from around $900 billion annually to approximately $500 billion, with exploration expenditures becoming a tiny fraction of previous levels. This underinvestment, combined with natural field decline rates, suggests a potential supply crunch in the coming years. Young is equally optimistic about natural gas, citing growing demand from data centers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. He sees potential for significant price appreciation driven by increasing demand and limited new production capacity. In the equity markets, Young finds the most attractive opportunities in small-cap oil producers and, particularly, oil services companies. He emphasizes that surviving services companies are exceptionally well-managed and can be purchased at significant discounts to replacement cost, often with attractive free cash flow yields. Drawing parallels with the precious metals sector, Young sees similar market dynamics emerging in oil and other commodities. He believes the current market setup resembles previous commodity cycles, where intense pessimism precedes substantial price appreciation. To share his insights, Young has launched a newsletter called Bison Insights, where he provides structured investment ideas and analysis in the energy and commodities space.
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1:07:51
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1:07:51
Greg Orrell: Why Gold & Silver Are Surging | Identifying the Right Miners
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Greg Orrell to the show. Greg Orrell is President and Portfolio Manager, OCM Gold Fund. In this engaging discussion, Orrell provides deep insights into the current gold market, highlighting the significant price movements and underlying economic factors driving precious metals' performance. Orrell explains that gold's current surge, over 50% this year, is primarily driven by global government debt and currency debasement. He argues that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a stability anchor, with many countries looking to diversify away from the US dollar. The unprecedented monetary landscape has created a unique environment where gold is seen as a critical financial instrument. As a seasoned investor with 40 years of experience, Orrell describes himself as a long-term value investor focused on gold and silver mining companies. His investment strategy involves carefully selecting mining companies across different stages - from major producers to exploration companies - with a keen eye on management quality, project feasibility, and potential for long-term value creation. Orrell is particularly critical of mining companies that pursue "profitless prosperity" by unnecessarily lowering cut-off grades or extending mine life without creating shareholder value. He emphasizes the importance of margin expansion and maintaining disciplined investment approaches. The discussion also explores the broader economic context, including government debt, potential currency challenges, and the shifting global monetary landscape. Orrell believes we are in a unique monetary cycle driven by declining confidence in traditional currency systems. Regarding investment opportunities, Orrell suggests investors should maintain a 5-10% position in gold and silver assets as a form of monetary insurance. He sees significant potential in gold and silver miners, particularly as central banks and international markets increasingly recognize these metals' strategic importance. The OCM Gold Fund, which Orrell has managed since 1996, focuses exclusively on precious metals equities, providing investors a specialized approach to navigating this complex and potentially lucrative market segment.
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Garrett Goggin: Debt Explosion Fueling Gold’s Epic Rise
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Garrett Goggin to the show. Garrett Goggin is CFA, CMT, MBA, GOLD ANALYST, & Founder of The Golden Portfolio. In this in-depth discussion, Goggin provides a comprehensive overview of the current gold market, highlighting significant global financial shifts and unprecedented economic conditions driving gold's value. Goggin argues that the current gold market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing massive U.S. debt (now at $37 trillion), foreign central banks moving away from U.S. treasuries, and increasing gold purchases. He believes the gold market has substantial room for growth, noting that average investors currently have less than 1% of their assets invested in gold. The analyst is particularly bullish on gold mining companies, especially developers with undervalued assets. He emphasizes finding opportunities where market valuations significantly lag the intrinsic net asset value (NAV) of mining projects. Goggin's investment strategy focuses on high-grade exploration projects, developers near production, and royalty companies, which he considers the lowest-risk gold investment strategy. Management quality is crucial in Goggin's analysis. He looks for executives who create shareholder value, avoid excessive dilution, and have a track record of building successful mining operations. His portfolio approach involves equal-weighting investments across multiple holdings, allowing winners to naturally grow in portfolio allocation. Regarding market sentiment, Goggin believes the "masses aren't here yet" in the gold market. He anticipates institutional investors will be "drawn kicking and screaming" into gold as traditional assets become overvalued. He's especially interested in the potential silver market, which he sees as currently undervalued relative to gold. Goggin's Golden Portfolio, which includes royalty investments and developer/explorer positions, has reportedly achieved impressive returns, with his GPIV product up 500% in two years. He remains confident that significant value opportunities exist in the gold mining sector, driven by fundamental economic shifts and undervaluation of quality mining assets.
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41:51
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41:51
Tavi Costa: Uncovering the Bullish Thesis for Gold, Silver, and The Contrarian Oil & Gas Bet
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa to the show. Tavi Costa is Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital. Costa shares a compelling personal journey from Brazil, where experiencing hyperinflation shaped his financial perspective, to becoming a tennis player and eventually a finance professional. His background in macro analysis has enabled him to identify significant market turning points, such as predicting China's potential economic challenges and the emerging commodity trends. Costa emphasizes the importance of independent research and developing strong conviction in investment strategies. He discusses the current bullish environment for gold and silver, highlighting a notable chart showing central banks increasingly preferring gold over treasuries. He believes the current gold market has substantial potential, potentially surpassing historical performance due to unprecedented economic conditions. Regarding silver, Costa presents an intriguing 45-year cup and handle technical pattern, suggesting the potential for silver prices to reach triple digits. He argues that limited silver exploration assets and increasing demand from various sectors could drive significant price appreciation. Moreover, he sees tremendous opportunity in mining companies, noting their impressive profit margins and potential for institutional attraction. Costa is also becoming bullish on energy, presenting a contrarian view based on declining oil inventories, reduced drilling activities, and potential increased energy consumption from technological developments like AI. He sees the energy sector as an undervalued asset class with significant medium-term potential. At Crescat Capital, Costa focuses on early-stage exploration companies, employing a venture capital approach in the mining space. He believes in actively helping management improve capital allocation and exploration strategies. His investment philosophy centers on identifying intrinsic value in companies before market recognition, with a particular focus on metals and resources. Throughout the discussion, Costa emphasizes flexibility in investment thinking, the importance of independent research, and the potential for significant shifts in market perception toward traditionally underappreciated sectors like mining and energy.
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39:37
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39:37