Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Gaurav, Stefan, and Denise sit down with Dong He, Chief Economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, for a wide-ranging look at Asia's economic outlook. With the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. on shaky ground and the Strait of Hormuz back in focus, the conversation weighs up growth, inflation and energy security across the region. Dong He also shares AMRO's take on the artificial intelligence boom, central banks' next moves and where ASEAN's integration story heads next, from trade agreements to the region's digital ambitions. Along the way, the team discovers why the humble taxi app might be the best advert for the region's cashless future.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
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Europe has built a digital architecture that is heavily reliant on the U.S. and China. It depends heavily on the former for software, cloud services, artificial intelligence and online platforms, while relying on the latter for the hardware, components and critical minerals beneath them. Two dependencies, very different in nature, both creating vulnerabilities that are difficult to unwind.

In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew and Barbara explore how Europe became so exposed, and why what once looked like ordinary commercial reliance is now seen as a strategic vulnerability. They discuss Europe's response through regulation, industrial ambition and investment in home-grown capacity, and ask whether it can meaningfully reduce its reliance on others.

They also turn to the geopolitics: what if technology becomes a bargaining chip? Could Europe be squeezed from both sides at once? And is true independence even possible, or is resilience a more realistic goal?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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With crude oil prices continuing to fall as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, Gaurav is joined by Barbara and Andrew to assess whether Europe is finally turning a corner. The euro zone inflation data raise hopes that the worst of the energy shock may be behind us, but the team warn of lingering risks from gas markets and delayed price pass-through still to come. The downside risks to growth have eased, but a subdued outlook persists amid growing doubts over the prospects of a consumer-led rebound. The discussion moves across the English Channel where, 10 years on from the Brexit referendum, the U.K. awaits the arrival of yet another prime minister.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav, Stefan and Denise turn their attention back to Asia-Pacific after months dominated by the Middle East conflict. With signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to resume, the team weighs whether the worst is over and the shock to the region's economies may yet prove transitory. They also dig into the K-shaped nature of Asian growth, where the AI boom is delivering blockbuster GDP numbers for tech-heavy economies like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, even as consumers struggle with elevated energy and food costs. From China's stubborn reluctance to fire a domestic demand bazooka to the limits of decoupling in a world stitched together by rare earths and supply chains, the team asks whether Asia's growth story is built on strong foundations, or just very good at papering over the cracks. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Andrew are joined by Andrea Montanino, Chief Economist at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy, and former Executive Director at the IMF, to explore the profound transformations reshaping Europe’s economy. Framed around four key pillars—demographics, geopolitics, energy, and technology—the discussion examines the structural forces weighing on Europe’s growth and competitiveness.

As the global landscape becomes more fragmented, Andrea argues that “the world is no longer a supermarket”—with firms forced to weigh resilience, diversification, and supply chain risks alongside costs. The team also explores Europe’s trade strategy in a shifting order, its energy security following recent shocks, the potential of deeper ties with Africa, and the challenge of channeling abundant savings into productive investment.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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