Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Andrew are joined by Andrea Montanino, Chief Economist at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy, and former Executive Director at the IMF, to explore the profound transformations reshaping Europe’s economy. Framed around four key pillars—demographics, geopolitics, energy, and technology—the discussion examines the structural forces weighing on Europe’s growth and competitiveness.

As the global landscape becomes more fragmented, Andrea argues that “the world is no longer a supermarket”—with firms forced to weigh resilience, diversification, and supply chain risks alongside costs. The team also explores Europe’s trade strategy in a shifting order, its energy security following recent shocks, the potential of deeper ties with Africa, and the challenge of channeling abundant savings into productive investment.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In the second part of a Europe mini-series, the focus shifts to the region’s growth outlook as the Middle East conflict weighs on momentum. Higher oil prices have led to downward revisions in growth forecasts, though the eurozone remains in a fragile expansion. Underlying domestic demand is soft: consumers remain cautious, investment is weak, and export strength reflects temporary front-loading. The episode also examines risks from prolonged oil disruptions, tighter financial conditions, and structural trade challenges, alongside potential support from fiscal policy and AI. The conclusion is that Europe is exposed to significant headwinds.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Inflation is again testing Europe’s policymakers, raising uncomfortable questions about how persistent recent upward pressure will prove and how best to respond. In the first part of a European special, Gaurav is joined by Kamil, Andrew and Barbara to unpack the latest euro zone inflation data and what is driving the renewed pickup in services prices. They explore the role of energy costs, insurance premiums and expectations, why the broader backdrop still looks different to 2022, but how upside risks could nonetheless intensify. The debate turns to monetary policy, assessing the case for “insurance” hikes from the ECB and contrasting with the more fragile U.K. backdrop faced by the Bank of England.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Rising bond yields have moved centre stage as turmoil in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and rattles global markets. In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew, Kamil, Denise and Stefan dig into what’s driving the recent jump in government bond yields, and how much reflects inflation fears versus fiscal and political concerns. From U.K. budget worries to Asia’s vulnerability to external shocks, the team assesses who is most exposed, whether markets are overreacting, how central banks are likely to respond, and why this episode still looks less dangerous than past inflation scares. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Andrew, Suren and Kamil to take stock of a global economy that is still holding up—just—three months into the Middle East conflict. Oil prices remain range‑bound for now, but the team warns that policy buffers are thinning and risks are becoming increasingly non‑linear. Asia is still benefiting from the AI boom, Europe’s economy looks more fragile as sentiment sours, while the Middle East itself faces mounting economic damage the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained. With talk of messy reopenings, tipping points and mounting stagflation risks, the outlook is becoming steadily more uneasy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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