China’s rise has captivated and vexed the international community. From defense, technology, and the environment, to trade, academia, and human rights, much of ...
Space, once a distant destination, has become yet another battleground for great power competition. Since the early days of the People’s Republic of China, the country has been pursuing a series of ambitious space programs aimed to build up its space capacity as an essential element of its comprehensive national power. In recent years, under the Xi Jinping regime, Beijing has significantly increased its investment in its civilian space program efforts. It has a plan to send Chinese Taikonauts to the Moon before the US can return. As the US-China strategic competition continues to heighten, it is vital to assess China’s space policy and its role in China’s grand strategy. To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dean Cheng, senior advisor to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a nonresident fellow with George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute. Dean focuses on China’s space program, Chinese military doctrine, and “dual-use” issues associated with China’s scientific and technical enterprises. He also recently published a book titled China and the New Moon Race. Timestamp[00:00] Start[01:54] Space Race 2.0[03:27] Space in China’s Grand Strategy[05:27] Achievements of China’s Space Program[07:18] Similarities and Differences in China’s Approach[09:14] Nature of Public-Private Cooperation in China[12:42] Implications of Landing on the Moon[15:30] A Chinese Incident in Space[17:00] International Lunar Research Station [18:50] Responses to China’s Space Ambitions[21:03] Problems in the US-China Civilian Space Race[23:20] Stars and Stripes on Mars
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26:30
Beijing's Approach Toward a Second Trump Presidency
When this episode goes live four days from now, Donald Trump will have been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, after having served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.Many countries around the world are closely watching to identify changes in US policy and assess their impact. China is one of those countries. As presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States. He also proposed revoking China’s Most Favored Nation trading status and banning China from buying US farmland. He pledged to curtail Chinese espionage and theft of intellectual property. On some occasions Trump praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and predicted that they would get along very well. In the past few months, Trump and Xi have been in communication through their representatives.What approach will Beijing take toward Trump’s presidency this time around? Is China in a stronger or weaker position than it was in during Trump’s first term? What is the likely trajectory of US-China relations in the coming four years?To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. He served seven years in President Obama’s NSC first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:00] Lessons Beijing Learned from Trump’s First Term [04:11] Perceptions on the Balance of Economic Power [07:30] China’s Reaction to American Tariffs[09:39] China Hurting the United States without Hurting Itself[11:48] Starting Anew with the Trump Administration [13:38] An Early US-China Meeting[16:46] An Inverse Bilateral Relationship [18:56] China Helping with the War in Ukraine[25:18] Chinese Use of Force Against Taiwan [29:22] US Alliances Under the Trump Administration[35:00] What worries Evan Medeiros in the US-China relationship?
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37:03
Status and Trajectory of India-China Relations
In June 2020, Indian and Chinese forces engaged in a deadly clash along their disputed border in the Ladakh region. It was the deadliest confrontation since the 1962 war. Subsequently, bilateral ties between India and China deteriorated to their lowest level in decades. In recent months, however, China-India ties have begun to thaw.Last October, India and China struck a border patrol deal. Indian Prime Minister Modi and China’s leader Xi Jinping subsequently met at the BRICS summit in Kazan—their first meeting in five years. That was followed by a round of talks by their top officials just a few weeks ago.To discuss the status and trajectory of India-China relations, including how the second Trump presidency and other geopolitical developments are likely to influence that relationship, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Tanvi Madan. Tanvi is a senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is author of the book “Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War.” Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:45] October 2024 Border Patrol Deal[06:40] Impetus for Stabilizing the Sino-Indian Relations[10:50] Assessment of Wang Yi-Ajit Doval Meeting [15:26] Reviving Confident-Building Measures (CBMs)[20:30] Overstating the Thaw in Sino-Indian Relations[25:54] Bilateral Trade Volume and Economic Relations[31:58] India-China Relations Moving Forward
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38:20
Chinese Perspectives on Military Uses of AI
In China’s 14th Five-Year Plan that spans from 2021 to 2025, priority was assigned to development of emerging technologies that could be both disruptive and foundational for the future. China is now a global leader in AI technology and is poised to overtake the West and become the world leader in AI in the years ahead. Importantly, there is growing evidence that AI-enabled military capabilities are becoming increasingly central to Chinese military concepts for fighting future wars.A recently released report provides insights on Chinese perspectives on military use of AI. Published by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), the report illustrates some of the key challenges Chinese defense experts have identified in developing and fielding AI-related technologies and capabilities. Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the author of this report, Sam Bresnick, who is a Research Fellow at Georgetown’s CSET focusing on AI applications and Chinese technology policy. TimestampsB[00:00] Start[01:33] Impetus for the Georgetown CSET Report[03:34] China’s Assessment of the Impacts of AI and Emerging Technologies[06:32] Areas of Debate Among Chinese Scholars[09:39] Evidence of Progress in the Military Application of AI[12:13] Lack of Trust Amongst Chinese Experts in Existing Technologies[14:25] Constraints in the Development and Implementation of AI[18:20] Chinese Expert Recommendations for Mitigating AI Risk[23:01] Implications Taken from Discussions on AI Risk[25:14] US-China Areas of Discussion on the Military Use of AI[28:50] Unilateral Steps Toward Risk Mitigation
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31:33
China's Implementation of the Global Security Initiative in Southeast and Central Asia
China’s push to revise the international security order entered a new phase with the launch of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022. A few months after Xi Jinping proposed GSI, host Bonnie Glaser did a podcast episode with Manoj Kewalramani to discuss the drivers behind GSI and analyze the initial statements outlining its content. More than 2 ½ years have elapsed since then, and scholars have begun to investigate how China is implementing GSI in various regions around the world. A new report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) examines how GSI is being operationalized and received in two priority regions of Chinese foreign policy: mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The study draws on field research in both regions. The report is titled “China’s Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia.” The report has three authors: Bates Gill, Carla Freeman and Alison McFarland. Bonnie Glaser is joined by Bates Gill for this episode to discuss the report’s findings. Bates is a senior fellow with the National Bureau of Asian Research, a Senior Associate Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, and associated with USIP.Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:53] Objectives of China’s Global Security Initiative [04:22] GSI as an Additive or a Replacement[07:21] Fieldwork in Southeast and Central Asia[12:06] Concerns about China’s Intentions and Influence[15:24] GSI Initiatives and Sources of Funding[19:58] GSI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation[23:55] Moscow’s View of GSI [29:27] Implications of GSI for the United States
China’s rise has captivated and vexed the international community. From defense, technology, and the environment, to trade, academia, and human rights, much of what Beijing does now reverberates across the map. China Global is a new podcast from the German Marshall Fund that decodes Beijing’s global ambitions as they unfold. Every other week, host Bonnie Glaser will be joined by a different international expert for an illuminating discussion on a different aspect of China’s foreign policy, the worldview that drives its actions, the tactics it’s using to achieve its goals—and what that means for the rest of the world.
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