Hold Your Fire!

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s alleged backing, and the threat it poses to the federal government. They also discuss how war-weary Tigrayans view the fighting and how the conflict could unfold. Finally, they explore the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, entanglement with Sudan’s conflict and wider regional rivalries, and whether diplomacy can halt the fighting and prevent a broader regional war.

For more check out our latest statement “Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia” and our Ethiopia page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s Director for Global Issues and Institutions, and Daniel Forti, Head of UN affairs, ahead of next week’s UN General Assembly high-level week. They explore the mood at the UN, its shifting relations with Washington and its shrinking role in peacemaking worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. They assess current Secretary-General António Guterres’s legacy, the contenders to succeed him and whether new leadership can reinvigorate the organisation’s peacemaking while defending the UN Charter’s principles and rebuilding relationships with powerful states. They also discuss how UN peacekeeping missions can adapt to fragile ceasefires and how much Western and non-Western mid-sized powers, which appear increasingly drawn to other forums, will invest in the UN’s future.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more check out our special briefing “Ten Challenges for the UN in 2026-2027” and our multilateral diplomacy page.

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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to unpack the rapid Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandab Strait and its implications for regional security and global shipping. They discuss how the 2022 truce between the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognised government unravelled, the domestic and regional factors behind the latest offensive, and what enabled the Houthis to gain ground so quickly. They assess how these gains have strengthened the Houthis’ bargaining position and expanded their demands, and whether the group can consolidate its control and advance further. They also examine Saudi Arabia’s difficult choice between costly concessions and further military escalation, and what could prompt broader Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and beyond.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Yemen page.

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In this first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s European Security Director Olga Oliker about the role of nuclear weapons in Europe. They examine how Russia’s nuclear threats have constrained but failed to halt Western support for Ukraine, why Trump’s questioning of NATO commitments has weakened European confidence in U.S. nuclear protection, and why Russian military planners still assume Washington could intervene in a war with another NATO member state. They assess efforts to reinforce the U.S. nuclear umbrella and expand the role of French and British arsenals. They also talk briefly about the latest round of U.S. diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. They discuss U.S. special envoy’s Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv, why hopes for diplomatic breakthrough remain dim and the latest developments on battlefield.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Europe page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Middle East director Rob Malley about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and how the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could change the region. They discuss why talks remain fraught, how control over the Strait of Hormuz has become central to Iran’s demands, how negotiators might tackle Iran’s nuclear program and how Gulf states are recalibrating relations with Washington and Iran. They then turn to Lebanon, where continued Israeli operations and the future of Hezbollah could test U.S. diplomacy. They also discuss Gaza’s stalled ceasefire framework and the unresolved question of Hamas’s disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal. They end by looking at the growing strains in U.S.-Israel relations and whether Washington has a vision for Iran’s role in a volatile new regional order.

Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Iran page.
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