The IR thinker

How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.

Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.

Selected Publications
Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community
Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict
How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)

Chapters
00:00 Introduction
02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?
04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations
06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information
12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'
15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?
18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?
20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions
22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?
24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'
28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types
31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding
37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations
40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?
42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?
46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft
47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis
53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?

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Why is Africa still importing so much of the food it consumes? What is holding back trade in food and agricultural products between African countries? In this interview, we speak with Professor David Luke, editor of How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks, an open-access book published by LSE Press.

We discuss the causes of food insecurity across Africa, the role of agricultural investment, and the barriers that make it difficult for African countries to trade food with one another. Professor Luke explains why non-tariff barriers matter, where intra-African food trade falls short, and what the AfCFTA could mean for African agriculture.

The conversation also covers Africa’s approach to the WTO, the future of the Malabo Declaration, countries making progress in agricultural transformation, and China’s role in African agriculture. The interview concludes with a discussion of where research on African agriculture should go next.

David Luke is Professor in Practice and Strategic Director at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, LSE and Extraordinary Professor at North-West University, South Africa, specialising in African trade policy, trade negotiations, and development.

Selected Publications
How Africa Trades
How Africa Eats
Implementing the AfCFTA: A sluggish start

Chapters
00:00 Introduction
01:39 Rethinking Africa’s Hunger Narrative
06:51 The Root Causes of Food Insecurity in Africa
12:28 How the Research Was Conducted
15:13 Why Non-Tariff Barriers Matter for African Food Trade
17:43 The Missing Link in Intra-African Food Trade
20:12 Agricultural Investment: Africa’s Internal and External Drivers
24:49 Africa’s WTO Strategy: Practical Outcomes Over Ideology
29:11 Does the Malabo Declaration Need an Upgrade?
31:11 Countries Driving Africa’s Agricultural Transformation
32:23 China’s Role in African Agriculture
34:36 Future Research Priorities in African Agriculture

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In this episode, Professor Miles Kahler discusses the future of global governance in an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, shifting power balances, and growing challenges to the post-1945 international order. Drawing on his recent paper, Global Governance in the Twenty-First Century: Sustain, Reform, Transform, he examines whether existing international institutions can still adapt or whether new forms of cooperation will be required.

Professor Miles Kahler is Research Professor-in-Residence and Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the School of International Service, American University. He is also a Non-resident Scholar in the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on international institutions, global governance, international political economy, regionalism, and the evolution of the international order. He has written extensively on global governance, international cooperation, and the political economy of globalisation, and is widely recognised as one of the leading scholars in the study of international institutions.

Selected Publications
Global governance in the twenty-first century: Sustain, reform, transform
From Complex Interdependence to Complex Governance
Global governance in the twenty-first century: End of the Bretton Woods moment?
The Bretton Woods Moment: Hierarchies, Networks, and Markets in the Long Twentieth Century
Global governance: Three futures

Chapters
00:00 Introduction
01:58 When Are Institutional Reforms No Longer Enough?
05:16 Can Middle Powers Shape a New Global Order?
10:21 Consensus-Based Multilateralism vs. Plurilateral Cooperation
16:15 Why Is BRICS Less Coherent Than Expected in Global Governance?
22:20 Why Do Countries Join BRICS? Choice or Necessity?
29:19 How Technology and Supply Chains Are Redefining Spheres of Influence
34:30 The Future of Values and Interests in Global Governance
41:41 Does the Liberal International Order Need an Upgrade?
46:11 Strengthening Regional Governance: Rules, Norms, and Institutions
52:38 AI and the Future of Global Governance
59:59 Has International Relations Neglected Domestic Politics?
01:05:41 Underexplored Research Agendas in Global Governance

A clarifying note at 13:18: "COP 30 reached agreement on several issues, such as a work program on climate finance, but it was not able to reach consensus on a roadmap transitioning from fossil fuels. That issue that led to the Santa Marta Conference, a coalition of the willing that aimed to phase out fossil fuels."

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Published by the Brazilian Institute of International Relations since 1958, the Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (Brazilian Journal of International Politics, also known as RBPI) has spent nearly seven decades serving as a vital bridge between Latin American scholarship and global debates on international affairs.

The journal has also reached several important milestones, including its transition to open access, the adoption of English as a publication language, and its integration into the SciELO digital publishing platform. These developments have significantly expanded its international reach and influence.

Editor-in-Chief: Haroldo Ramanzini Júnior
Impact Factor: 2025 (1.0) / 5-Year Impact Factor: 1.20
Indexed: Scopus / Web of Science
First Decision: 90 days
Acceptance Rate: 20%

Haroldo Ramanzini Júnior is a Brazilian political scientist specialising in Brazilian foreign policy, regionalism, and Latin American international relations, and serves as Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations at the University of Brasília.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction
02:16 The Intellectual Identity of RBPI
04:46 What Makes RBPI Unique Among Latin American IR Journals?
10:31 Maintaining Thematic and Conceptual Coherence
12:49 Brazil's Foreign Policy, Latin America, and Global Perspectives
15:03 Emerging Intellectual Trends in Submissions
17:00 Which Research Topics Are Growing Most Rapidly?
19:08 Methodological Diversity in RBPI
21:35 The Most Common Mistakes in Submitted Manuscripts
24:33 Ensuring a High-Quality Editorial Process
27:29 Artificial Intelligence in Editorial Work and Peer Review
30:26 Editorial Innovations and Future Publishing Practices
35:49 Who Can Join the Editorial Board?
36:49 Should Authors Suggest Potential Reviewers?
39:25 Publishing in English and Internationalising the Journal
42:48 The Future Direction of RBPI
45:52 What Editorial Leadership Has Meant for Dr Ramanzini Junior's Career

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In 1989, an American cultural institute helped arrange Boris Yeltsin's first trip to the United States — and a single visit to a supermarket may have changed the course of Soviet history. Thus, what is the untold story of America's involvement in the transformation of the Soviet Union?

Daniel Satinsky is an independent scholar, retired attorney and retired business consultant. He began his career in the Soviet Union, then Russia, as part of a US-Russia telecom joint venture in 1991 and then continued with business and consulting projects in Russia up to 2014.

Selected Publication
Creating the Post-Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American Eyes

Over those years he traveled extensively across the country from Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Central Russia Golden Ring cities, the Urals and Siberia. Subsequently, he has been researching and writing about the interaction between Americans and Russians in this unique historical period.

After publishing his most recent book, Creating the Post Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American Eyes, he has developed an oral history of interviews with foreigners active in Russia during the late 1980s through the early 2000s, available online as The Satinsky Archive, now including 55 in-depth interviews.

He was Chairman of the Board of the US Russia Chamber of Commerce of New England from 2000 – 2014 and currently is a Local Affiliate of the Davis Center at Harvard.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction
03:28 The Esalen Institute and Boris Yeltsin's Visit to the United States
21:02 SovAm Teleport: Establishing a Soviet–American Internet Connection
29:50 SP Dialog: American Technology and the Transformation of Soviet Banking
39:32 Project Harmony: Community Exchanges and American Police Officers in the Soviet Union
49:30 Russian Privatisation and the Role of American Companies
01:06:11 American Companies in Russia: Independent Ventures or Western Partnerships?
01:08:17 Investment Opportunities in the Post-Soviet Space
01:10:56 Radio Maximum, Cosmopolitan, and Western Cultural Influence in Russia
01:16:23 Sources, Evidence, and the Limits of Satinsky's Research

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