The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks America’s strategic stalemate with Iran, Trump’s post-midterm options, and how Tehran and the Gulf see the war.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guests:

Cole Bucy, former CIA analyst; former director for Iran at the National Security Council

 

Nate Swanson, director of the Iran Strategy Project, Atlantic Council

 

We Discuss:

Why the United States has been strategically stuck in the Iran war for months with three bad options: escalate, negotiate, or hold the line.

How the U.S. blockade and sanctions have squeezed Iran without cracking the regime.

Why no Iranian elite or military defections have appeared and what that says about the regime’s staying power.

Whether and how President Trump will “take the gloves off” after the midterms, with options including decapitation strikes and the “mother of all bombs.”

How Tehran reads American politics, and whether the midterms are truly the pivot point each side assumes they are.

Why China is the hole in the sanctions “siege,” and how Beijing is exposing the limits of Washington’s power. 

What Bucy and Swanson would advise the White House to do now, and why the Gulf may hold the key to regional security. 

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

Cole Bucy and Nate Swanson, “Trump Unleashed,” Foreign Policy

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-iran-war-and-the-midterms

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the ongoing threat of influence and interference operations posed by Russia, China, and Iran as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach.

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Jessica Brandt, Senior Fellow for Technology and National Security, CFR, and former director of the Foreign Malign Influence Center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence

 

We Discuss:

The difference between foreign “influence” operations and “interference” operations, and why the distinction matters.

How Russia, China, and Iran run influence campaigns, from troll farms to the corruption of influential Americans. 

Why the intelligence community assesses that no foreign adversary could alter a U.S. vote count “at scale” without detection.

What the Tenet Media case revealed about Russia’s ability to covertly fund American influencers.

What President Donald Trump has claimed about Chinese interference in 2020 and what the evidence actually shows.

How the federal government’s influence-defense apparatus has been scaled back or stood down after being built up through 2024.

Why America’s decentralized, paper-backed election system is itself a source of security.

Whether AI and “influence-for-hire” firms are about to turbocharge the threat ahead of the 2026 and 2028 elections.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

“Executive Order 13848: Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election,” The White House

“Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company That Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests,” U.S. Department of Justice

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/will-there-be-meddling-in-the-midterms

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks what strategy really is, the seven questions every strategist must ask themselves before initiating a military operation, and why war stays so stubbornly unpredictable.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics

 

We Discuss:

What strategy can actually accomplish, and whether the outcome of war is ultimately a matter of chance.

Why Eliot Cohen adopts a deliberately narrow definition of strategy—and why he has little use for the fashionable term “grand strategy.”

The distinction between strategy and planning, and why execution is what separates a strategist from a planner.

The seven questions every strategist must ask, from “what else is going on?” to “what is your theory of victory?”

Why understanding the adversary—“Who are those guys?”—is a recurring American blind spot, including in the Iran war. 

How surprise, groupthink, and the limits of human judgment repeatedly derail even the best-led war efforts.

What Carl von Clausewitz meant by describing war as the continuation of politics by other means.

Why a classical liberal education may be the best training for judgment in an age of AI.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

James M. Lindsay, "The 10 Best and 10 Worst U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions," CFR.org

Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Princeton University Press

Eliot A. Cohen, The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics, Princeton University Press

Robert W. Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam, RAND Corporation

Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy: From Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age, Princeton University Press

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-seven-questions-every-military-strategist-must-ask

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks Xi Jinping’s high-stakes Washington visit, discussions of “constructive stability,” and tensions over Taiwan, AI, and Iran.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guests:

Julian Gewirtz, Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs

Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project and Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

 

We Discuss:

Why Xi Jinping has chosen this moment for his first visit to Washington in a decade, and what his concept of “constructive strategic stability” would actually require of both sides.

What President Trump’s plan to personally greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews signals about Washington’s current view of the relationship.

Whether hosting a lavish state visit forty days before the midterms is a political risk for Trump and his party.

How Beijing aims to lock in a truce on its own terms, from Taiwan arms sales to the pace of diplomacy.

Whether a pending $14 billion arms package and stalled presidential transits are eroding Taiwan’s confidence in U.S. support.

What a U.S.-China AI dialogue can and can’t deliver, and why Dario Amodei’s call to “pace the frontier” lands differently in Beijing.

How China’s purchases of Iranian oil are shaping Iran’s resilience, and whether Washington’s threats against Chinese banks are credible.

What Xi’s recent diplomatic tour—and his skipping the UN General Assembly—reveals about the world order Beijing is building.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

Dario Amodei, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” darioamodei.com

Julian Gewirtz, “Is Trump Really Giving Xi a State Visit 40 Days Before the Midterms?” Paper Tiger

“Taiwan Relations Act (H.R. 2479),” U.S. Congress

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-xi

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the deepening U.S.-Canada trade war, the collapse of a potential deal to end it, and whether decades of economic integration are rupturing.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Rohinton Medhora, Professor of Practice at McGill University and Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI)

 

We Discuss:

Whether the latest U.S. tariffs mark a genuine “rupture” in the U.S.-Canada relationship or just another rough patch in a partnership that goes back more than a century.

How a nine-year arc—from the NAFTA renegotiation to USMCA—led to today’s standoff, and why Ottawa sees the U.S. national security rationale for steel and aluminum tariffs as a betrayal.

How a mid-August deal collapsed, and what Canadian negotiators mean by the “ghost in the room.”

Why Prime Minister Mark Carney chose to retaliate “elbows up” rather than follow Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s more conciliatory approach.

How Canada’s “messy and noisy” federation—from Doug Ford’s Ontario to Alberta’s secessionist stirrings and Quebec’s election—shapes Ottawa’s room to maneuver.

Whether energy exports are the “elephant in the room,” and how far Canada could go in using them as leverage.

How Ottawa is courting U.S. governors, senators, and public opinion in states that depend on cross-border trade.

What the unresolved fight over digital technology means for where the U.S.-Canada relationship heads next.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Ronald Reagan, “Radio Address to the Nation on Free and Fair Trade,” Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/elbows-up-how-canada-is-fighting-trumps-tariffs

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.