The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the first by a sitting U.S. President in nearly a decade, as the United States and China work through a tense period of détente.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Rush Doshi, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative

 

We Discuss:

Whether the Trump-Xi summit will represent continuity or a new phase in the U.S.-China relationship.

How China assesses the military and economic balance of power with the United States.

What last year's trade war revealed and how it produced the current period of managed competition.

As Rush Doshi puts it: “I don’t think there’s going to be a large structural breakthrough.”

What deliverables the Trump administration is seeking from the summit, and why negotiations are focused on process mechanisms and stability.

How China has responded to the U.S.-Iran war and why it has stayed on the sidelines despite having clear strategic interests.

Why China welcomes U.S. entanglement in foreign conflicts but fears their effects on global trade and resource access.

Why China is more exposed than the United States freedom of navigation threats and naval chokepoints.

Why President Biden never traveled to Beijing, and how China is framing Trump's visit.

Why American CEOs are joining Trump's trip, and what role they play in the summit.

Whether the U.S. and China will negotiate agreements on artificial intelligence and its role in great power competition.

How China has treated seemingly mutually-beneficial crisis communication channels as negotiation ploys in return for U.S. concessions. 

Whether Taiwan will be on the agenda, what concessions China is seeking, and how U.S. policy shifts could affect internal Taiwanese politics on unification.

How a so-called Board of Trade and other bilateral mechanisms could formalize a lasting state of managed trade between the two countries

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

“President Xi Jinping Speaks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the Phone” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

 

Evelyn Cheng, “Trump is taking more than a dozen U.S. executives to China. Jensen Huang isn’t one of them,” CNBC

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-and-xi-in-beijing-with-rush-doshi 

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced. 

 

Hosts: 

 

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

 

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

 

Guest: 

 

Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

 

We discuss:

How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events.

The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture.

Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling.

As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?”

The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and insider bets.

An anecdote from France, where someone allegedly tampered with a weather sensor to manipulate the outcome of a prediction market bet.

How governments and regulators are struggling to keep up.

Whether these markets truly reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or just loud, well-funded players.

 

Mentioned on the Episode: 

 

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board

 

“The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution 

 

Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation

 

Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's

 

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks three enduring pillars that have defined U.S. foreign policy from the nation’s founding to today: ideology, economic statecraft, and democratic accountability.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Michael Mandelbaum, Professor Emeritus of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Author, The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy

 

We Discuss:

Whether the United States can be said to have a coherent foreign policy "personality".

How geographic and geopolitical advantages have historically enabled a more ideological U.S. foreign policy than most countries can afford.

Whether ideology in U.S. foreign policy represents genuine conviction or merely a veneer for self-interest. 

What the post-Cold War era reveals as the "golden age of foreign policy of ideas”.

What drives the persistent American tendency toward economic statecraft, sanctions, and “mirror imaging”.

How public opinion, interest groups, political parties, and elections influence foreign policy decisionmaking.

Whether President Trump's foreign policy fits within—or represents a departure from—the three enduring American traditions in U.S. foreign policy.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy by Michael Mandelbaum (Oxford University Press, 2025)

 

Embargo Act of 1807

 

George W. Bush, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 2005

 

Vice President JD Vance, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2025

 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/how-to-build-an-american-foreign-policy

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the causes, key events, and consequences of the Spanish-American War, highlighting how it shaped U.S. foreign policy into the modern era. 

 

To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

H.W. Brands, Jack S. Blanton Sr. Chair in History, The University of Texas at Austin

 

We Discuss:

What drove the United States toward assertive foreign policy in the 1890s.

Who the "jingoes" were and how American leaders pushed for American power abroad.

Whether access to China drove American interest in Spain's Pacific empire.

Why the USS Maine explosion changed the political calculus for entering a war with Spain.

What the Teller Amendment accomplished and what its drafters failed to anticipate.

Whether the annexation of the Philippines was ultimately the least-bad option for the Filipino people.

What the Spanish-American War's legacy reveals about how the United States became—and chose to remain—a global power.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Monroe Doctrine, December 2, 1823

McKinley's First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1897

Theodore Roosevelt, Naval War College Address, June 2, 1897

The Teller Amendment, April 19, 1898

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-at-250-the-spanish-american-war

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad and the prospect of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

What transpired during the U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad.

Whether both sides abandoned their own preconditions before talks began.

How unusually senior and small the negotiating delegations were.

What the logic and mechanics of the U.S. naval blockade are.

Why other countries have not joined the blockade and may resist it.

What the Arab Gulf states are privately urging Washington to do.

Whether Israel and the U.S. share the same goals regarding the Iranian regime.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026

 

Harry Sekulich and Kate Whannel, "Starmer Says UK Will Not Join Trump's Blockade of Iran's Ports," BBC

 

Defense Technical Information Agency, "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," October 1, 2007

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-comes-next-after-failed-us-iran-talks

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.