Art of Supply

"Shipping in 2026 is going to get darker." - Michelle Wiese Bockmann, Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst, Windward 
Right now, somewhere between 900 and 2,000 aging oil tankers are operating in the shadows.
They are carrying sanctioned crude from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. This so-called "shadow fleet" often sails under false flags, spoofs its locations, turns off monitoring systems, transfers their cargo at sea, and sometimes operates without insurance.
These dangerous vessels are increasingly being boarded, seized, escorted into port, and tied up in court, but enforcement at sea is messy, expensive, and legally complex. 
One company… GMS… thinks they have an answer. They believe they can scrap about 100 of these seized, sanctioned ships annually - if (and it is a big IF) they are given permission by the U.S. Treasury to acquire them.
In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner explores three interconnected questions:
What is actually being done to get shadow fleet tankers off the water?
What happens to the ships — and the oil, and the crew — after they are seized?
And what are the second- and third-order effects for global shipping markets, risk, and supply chains?
Links:
Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
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"Capacity reduction is clearly under way. Regulatory enforcement of qualifications and safety standards was arguably the most welcome development in 2025 for our industry." - Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
The trucking industry has been flooded with headlines about enforcement: English language proficiency checks, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, immigration raids, and court stays.
On the surface, this might look like a political story or an emotional response to a few high-profile fatal crashes, but it is not primarily about either paperwork or politics.
It's about freight market capacity. Who is allowed to operate? Where are they willing to operate? Can they operate profitably while following the rules? And how quickly can excess freight capacity be removed without destabilizing the whole system?
In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers:
Why CDL enforcement has become a de facto freight capacity lever
What the data says about drivers and smaller freight companies leaving the market
How localized disruption is starting to show up before national trends
And what we should be watching instead of (or at least in addition to) the headlines
Links:
Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
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Imagine a single railroad company that could move freight seamlessly from the ports of Los Angeles to the ports of New York without handoffs, interchange delays, or needing to switch carriers mid-journey.
That's the promise behind the proposed merger between the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads. If the deal is approved, it will create the first single-line transcontinental railroad in U.S. history, spanning more than 50,000 miles across 43 states and nearly 100 ports.
Supporters say this could make rail a more serious competitor to long-haul trucking, lowering costs and improving supply chain efficiency. Critics say it risks concentrating too much power in too few hands in an industry where four railroads already control more than 90% of U.S. freight.
Earlier this month, regulators hit the reset button. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) rejected the merger application - not on its merits, but because the paperwork was incomplete.
In this episode of Art of Supply, Kelly Barner covers:
What Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are proposing, and why it would be historically significant
The arguments for the merger, including efficiency, cost, and competition with trucking
The arguments against it, from labor, shippers, competitors, and policy advocates
Where the Surface Transportation Board fits in, and what the January 2026 rejection means from an approval and timeline standpoint
Links:
Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
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In late 2023, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints effectively broke.
After Hamas' October 7th attack on Israel, Houthi militants began targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Initially, their target was Israel-linked vessels, then they increasingly started targeting anything that passed through.
What followed was a near-collapse of confidence in the Suez Canal, a route that normally handles roughly 10–12% of global seaborne trade. Ocean carriers rerouted thousands of ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks, cost, fuel burn, and complexity to global supply chains.
Fast forward to late 2025 and early 2026, and something quietly significant happened: Maersk, the world's second-largest container carrier, sent ships back through the Red Sea. It wasn't a full return or a declaration of victory, but it was a meaningful test.
In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers: 
Why Maersk's Red Sea test voyages matter more than they may appear
The economic and capacity pressures pushing carriers back toward Suez
Why a "safe reopening" may still create winners and losers
What procurement and supply chain leaders should be watching for next
Links:
High Stakes in the Red Sea
Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter 
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In early December of last year, two thefts took place in Taunton, Massachusetts, that involved two usually wonderful things: lobster and logistics. 
The stolen property was valued at $400,000: approximately $250,000 worth of lobster and $150,000 in crabmeat. Both thefts took place at the same warehouse. The crimes were a massive hit to all of the businesses involved at one of the most critical times of the year.
Unfortunately, this kind of fraud-based theft is all too common. Even more unfortunately, the opportunity to steal this property was created by security lapses in the supply chain. Significant effort went into tricking the warehouse to hand over the seafood, but it worked.
In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers:
The theft: who, what, where, and when
How common this form of theft is, and the multi-agency law enforcement effort that is being mounted in response
All of the forms of cost associated with 'fictitious pickups'
Links:
Kelly Barner on LinkedIn
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