FreightCasts

Malcolm and Mike review recent news, including a breakdown of approximately 1,850 industry layoffs across several states, notable drug and weapon seizures involving semi-trucks on I-69 in Michigan and I-40 in Arkansas, and upcoming events like the Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga.

Then they're joined by Matthew Muester, Chief Economist at Breakthrough, He talks about the volatile diesel market heading into Q4. He breaks down how geopolitical conflicts, crude oil prices (~$90/barrel), and skyrocketing refining margins ($108/barrel crack spread) have pushed total diesel costs to around $200 per barrel. He also shares insights on Canadian crude imports, the long-term outlook for the Keystone XL project, and expectations for diesel pricing into 2027.

Finally they have Jefferson Barr, Chief Marketing Officer at Netstock, who discusses insights from Netstock's latest supply chain report. He explains how small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs) are navigating a complex landscape of simultaneous disruptions—such as shifting lead times, freight costs, and raw material access—and emphasizes how leveraging data analytics helps "star" performers outperform "stragglers" in inventory management.

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In this episode, we kick things off by examining a landmark law enforcement operation that dealt a major blow to cargo theft networks nationwide. The ⁠coordinated National Supply Chain Blitz resulted in multiple arrests and approximately $635,000 in recovered stolen freight⁠, including thirty stolen transformers worth roughly $600,000 that were located at a Massachusetts facility using fraudulent documentation.

Next, we explore how California is tightening regulatory oversight of cold-storage facilities following a devastating industrial fire. Governor Gavin Newsom ⁠signed new legislation requiring emergency financial resources and authorizing significantly higher penalties for safety violations⁠ at large cold-storage warehouses after the massive eight-day Lineage fire in Los Angeles triggered a state emergency declaration and widespread public health concerns.

Finally, we cover some welcome news for truckers as ⁠retail diesel prices dropped nearly fifteen cents per gallon⁠ from their recent all-time highs. The decline ends a three-week streak of record-breaking weekly prices and is being driven by increasing crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf approaching pre-war levels.

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FreightWaves Today looks ahead to the fourth quarter and holiday peak season with an in-depth discussion of freight market conditions, capacity, operating costs and the broader economy.

Covenant Logistics Group Founder and CEO David Parker joins the show live in Chattanooga to discuss the company’s strategy of moving away from commoditized truckload freight and deeper into specialized, service-intensive operations, including poultry transportation, expedited freight and logistics supporting AI data-center construction. Parker shares his outlook for peak season, contract rates, capacity, driver pay, diesel costs and the potential impact of autonomous trucking and electric trucks.

The episode also examines major industry headlines, including Daimler Truck North America’s opposition to proposed NOx noncompliance penalties, Trimble’s strategic review of its transportation and logistics business, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. port fees on China-linked and China-built vessels.

The SONAR market update explores tender rejections, spot and contract rates, freight volumes and the tightening capacity environment. With tender rejections around 14%, the discussion examines why the market can remain healthy without reaching the extreme tightness seen during previous freight booms.

Economist Jason Miller joins the show for a broader look at the freight economy, including diesel prices, regulatory enforcement, capacity exits, consumer spending, energy markets, interest rates, housing and the driver labor market. Miller also discusses how AI and data-center investment are supporting industrial freight while weaker consumer activity creates potential headwinds.

The episode closes with a discussion of changing student-loan policies and their potential implications for consumer spending and freight, along with an update on FreightWaves Today’s new one-hour-plus format.

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Is trucking finally at the bottom...or are we still digging?

Diesel is around $6.53 a gallon. Rates remain under pressure. Capacity keeps leaving. Cash is getting tighter. And trucking has been hearing the same promise for what feels like forever:

“THE RECOVERY IS COMING.”

Cool....WHEN?

On this episode of Brake Check, Charles follows the money with two guests looking at the trucking market from completely different angles.First, John Larkin, Senior Investment Partner at Venture 53, brings decades of transportation and Wall Street experience to the questions every carrier wants answered:

Are we finally at the bottom? How many more trucks have to disappear before rates move? Is freight volume or excess capacity the bigger problem? Who breaks first at $6.53 diesel? And when does buying another truck become an investment instead of a really expensive gamble?

Then we put $1 MILLION on the table.

Trucking capacity, Freight technology, Brokerage, Warehousing, or cash.

Where would John Larkin put HIS money today?

Then Jacob Thomas from AtoB joins us to attack the problem from the cab instead of Wall Street.

At $6.53 diesel, fuel discounts aren't pocket change anymore. We're breaking down fuel-card savings, where discounts actually come from, hidden costs, fuel fraud, cash flow, working capital and the mistakes that make expensive diesel even MORE expensive.

Because surviving this freight market isn't just about waiting for rates to recover.

It's about having enough damn money left WHEN THEY DO.

SOUND OFF IN THE COMMENTS:

If you had $250,000 in cash TODAY, what are you doing?

BUY A TRUCK? PAY DOWN DEBT? INVEST IN TECHNOLOGY? OR SIT ON THE CASH?

And the bigger question:

IS TRUCKING FINALLY AT THE BOTTOM?

#Trucking #Freight #Diesel #OwnerOperator #TruckDrivers #FreightMarket #TruckingIndustry #FreightTech #DieselPrices #BrakeCheck

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In this episode, we kick things off by examining a fierce regulatory battle over proposed non-compliance penalties that could allow engine makers to simply pay fines rather than meet the drastically tighter nitrogen oxide standard taking effect in 2027. Daimler Truck North America is publicly resisting this controversial loophole, warning that PACCAR's suggestion of treating 6,000–7,000 per-engine penalties as an acceptable business strategy undermines Congressional intent and threatens the investments made by companies that developed compliant technology over the past decade.

Next, we explore the freight technology sector where a potential blockbuster divestiture remains in limbo as Trimble keeps multiple interested parties on the hook for its transportation and logistics business. Speaking at the company's Insight 2026 conference, CEO Rob Painter offered no timetable or clarity on whether the strategic review with Goldman Sachs will result in a sale, spinoff, or no transaction at all, even as Trimble continues investing aggressively in new AI-powered tools like Arc Agent.

Finally, we discuss a critical regulatory gap that has U.S. port-entry fees targeting China-linked vessels scheduled to resume in November despite last week's broader trade truce extension through January 2027. The discrepancy leaves liner operators and cargo interests in limbo, awaiting formal USTR action to align the maritime-fee suspension with the newly extended diplomatic accord, as no such notice had been issued as of September 28.

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