The Window of Vulnerability | Tian Yang on Global Imbalances, the Dollar, Growth Vulnerabilities, and Housing (Plus A Special Offering for Monetary Matters Listeners)
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Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, returns to Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on global imbalances that have been building in the monetary system for decades. He shares what his data-driven approach indicates about the U.S. Dollar, global equities, and more. He also explains the challenges he sees ahead for U.S. homebuilding companies. Recorded June 19, 2025.
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1:15:25
Fed Scared of Inflation Resurgence | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe
Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down the market’s reaction to today’s Federal Reserve decision, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. They also discuss parallels between this market and late 2021, debate whether AI is a bubble, and the eternal question of when the next US recession will occur.
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33:30
Equity Market Strength is Masking a Recession | Mike Green
Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:46 US Consumer Mirage
08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates
13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut
15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame
25:25 Recession Timing
33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession?
40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views
46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment
52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed
54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades
01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts
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1:14:02
The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:07 Recessions are Cancelled
08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop
11:11 Impact of Tariffs
13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits
19:26 Corporate Tax Rates
21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis
26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates
36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market
40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World
45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector
55:15 July Fed Predictions
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57:49
Capacity Constrained by Design: The 25-Year-Old Building Niche Multi-Manager Hedge Fund Platforms | Zach Levitt
Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform.
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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi
YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR
X https://x.com/opmpod
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25
07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On
09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like?
13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated"
18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"?
21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach
26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old
28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds
35:25 Battling Startup Costs
39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story
43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers
47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records
52:32 Next Stages of Growth
54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits
57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs?
Brasil