The Anatomy of a Fallen Angel: Management, Mispricing, and Turnarounds + Weight Watchers $WW Thesis with Paul Cerro, Founder and CIO of Cedar Grove Capital Management
My guest on the show today is Paul Cerro, Founder and CIO of Cedar Grove Capital Management, and today’s conversation is all about fallen angels — once high-profile companies that collapse due to poor execution, leverage, or macro pressure, but can become some of the most mispriced and compelling opportunities in the market.
Paul breaks down the anatomy of a fallen angel, why these setups create structural market inefficiencies — especially in illiquid micro-caps — and how forced selling, headline-driven reactions, and information scarcity can disconnect price from fundamentals. Most importantly, he explains the key dividing line between a genuine opportunity and a value trap: management credibility. In micro-caps, direct access to leadership gives investors a rare ability to test their assumptions and validate the story before making a high-conviction bet.
We also zoom out to the macro landscape, where Paul sees 2026 shaping up as a major buyout year for fallen companies. With private equity sitting on record dry powder — and the potential for rate cuts — consumer-facing businesses, retailers, restaurants, and even selected real estate names could become prime acquisition targets.
And then we dig into a fascinating case study: Weight Watchers (WW) — a company Cedar Grove originally shorted into bankruptcy, and one Paul now views as a compelling post-reorg long. He walks us through the dramatic deleveraging, the mandatory cash-sweep that accelerates equity value creation, and the company’s strategic pivot toward a holistic wellness model that integrates behavioral coaching with GLP-1 medications. It’s a rare look at how a fallen angel can move from short to long purely based on fundamentals, incentives, and structure.
This episode is a deep dive into special situations, fallen angels, restructuring dynamics, and the psychology required to separate opportunity from permanent impairment.
And for full disclosure, Paul mentions a number of companies today, and I’m not a shareholder in any of them.
For more information about Paul Cerro and Cedar Grove Capital Management, please visit: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/
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