UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The collapse of trade talks between Canada and the US resulted in US importers being charged tariffs on a further USD 20bn of imports. Import prices (where the tariff is levied) typically represent about 40% of the end-consumer price. These tariffs will be harder than others to avoid. China seems to have helped its US customers avoid or reduce tariffs by rerouting goods—that is not economically practical for Canada.

Jackson Hole puts the Federal Reserve’s policy trade-off into focus: a rate-sensitive housing market is under pressure, while AI investment remains exceptionally strong. This episode explores how AI-led growth may complicate inflation signals, and what that could mean for the policy outlook.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David outlines the factors behind CIO’s S&P 500 price target increases, why the rollout of AI remains a key positive for the market, the implications of rising longer-term interest rates, risk factors such as inflation and the over-building of data centers, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent declared the proposed Treasury buybacks could be four billion dollars. Bond investors seem to feel that four billion dollars is not terribly impressive. Yields rose—though a sense of proportion is helpful. This is hardly a repeat of the 1994 bond market collapse. What matters is whether the bond weakness has attracted US President Trump’s attention, triggering a policy response.

Matt drops by UBS Studios in New York to rejoin Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, and exchange of views on portfolio positioning. Matt McLennan is Head of the Global Value Team, and a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, and is a member of the UBS Research Advisory Board. Jason Draho is Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Edwin Marrero