UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The narrative of today’s generally “second tier” data releases is of a global economy that is resilient if somewhat dull. This might seem remarkable in the face of war, oil price gyrations, and unpredictable US policy. However, middle-income consumers in developed economies began this year in a solid position. Oil and the US economy have become less important over time. People are very good at adapting to a crisis.

As the second half of 2026 soon approaches, Jason spends time this week outlining CIO’s macro and market expectations (including expectations for Fed policy under Chair Warsh), and reviews positioning recommendations along with key messages. Plus, a look at the drivers behind recent market volatility. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This episode explores what historical US innovation can teach us about the trajectory of AI CapEx. Drawing on the 250 years of US innovation series, it looks at three key lessons from past capital cycles, from railroads to electrification to the internet. It highlights how innovation cycles tend to follow a similar pattern, how competition drives investment dynamics, and where value ultimately emerges in the application layer.

Oil futures prices have been largely indifferent to the weekend’s events in the Gulf and Russia. Investors managed to contain their surprise at Iran and the US trading military strikes. US policy has been highly volatile in several areas over the past 18 months, preparing investors for instability in implementing the Versailles memorandum. Russian President Putin’s admission that Ukrainian drone strikes might force Russia to import more fuel is unlikely to change global demand dramatically (reserves are being used for now).

Shane drops by to reflect on this week’s primary election results and highlight implications to the midterms in November. We also discuss whether the US and Iran can finalize a deal over the next 60 days to end the conflict. Plus, a look at this week’s legislative developments and gridlock around a housing and voting bill.