UBS On-Air: Market Moves

AI concerns weakened Asian equity markets, after a data centre’s market launch performed poorly. The fact that one company had such a broad reaction might indicate a degree of investor nervousness. Economists are less concerned—economic wealth effects from the AI story seem modest, and a slowing of real world AI investment might benefit other sectors of the economy.

Despite Q3 corporate earnings results rolling in, investors over the past week have seemed more focused on the sustainability of the AI trade and cost of funding. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the factors that are driving investor sentiment, along with what the inflation and retail sales data reveals about the current macro environment. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Rising interest rates are testing the balance sheets of highly levered AI infrastructure providers, but are they weakening the underlying demand for compute? This episode separates financing risk from demand growth and examines why compute pricing remains a critical signal for cloud infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.

China’s officially reported third quarter GDP growth was 4.5% y/y. That means that this year’s officially reported growth is likely to hit the officially set growth target. However, despite a stronger September China retail sales number, the domestic economy remains lackluster. Exports remain the growth driver. China has been fortunate that US companies have been adept at avoiding some tariffs, though ongoing economic nationalism (a form of scapegoat economics) threatens this pattern of growth.

Following what was a challenging quarter for fixed income investors, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on Q3 performance drivers, and shares a performance outlook. We also discuss CIO’s current positioning recommendations across the asset class. Host: Daniel Cassidy