UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Rising interest rates are testing the balance sheets of highly levered AI infrastructure providers, but are they weakening the underlying demand for compute? This episode separates financing risk from demand growth and examines why compute pricing remains a critical signal for cloud infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.

China’s officially reported third quarter GDP growth was 4.5% y/y. That means that this year’s officially reported growth is likely to hit the officially set growth target. However, despite a stronger September China retail sales number, the domestic economy remains lackluster. Exports remain the growth driver. China has been fortunate that US companies have been adept at avoiding some tariffs, though ongoing economic nationalism (a form of scapegoat economics) threatens this pattern of growth.

Following what was a challenging quarter for fixed income investors, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on Q3 performance drivers, and shares a performance outlook. We also discuss CIO’s current positioning recommendations across the asset class. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Europe’s government bond markets have faced growing pressure from higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and increased scrutiny of public finances. The gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields recently reached its widest level since the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis as investors focused on France’s deficit and borrowing trajectory. Could the strains spread across the Eurozone, and where is the volatility creating opportunities? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Christopher Swann speaks with Frederick Mellors, Head of Global Fixed Income, about the growing divide between European sovereign borrowers, the European Central Bank’s policy dilemma, and the case for selectivity across government and corporate bonds.

US monetary policy is in focus, with Federal Reserve Chair Warsh refusing to give forward guidance on policy at the IMF meetings—then giving forward guidance of a sort. Warsh failed to sound hawkish. The word of Warsh carries relatively little weight, but this chimes with Fed President William’s earlier remarks. Expectations for an October rate increase are fading.