UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Kurt and Shane drop by to discuss the two of the most consequential policy questions of the 2025 mid-term election cycle - something old (Social Security), and something new (Artificial Intelligence). These two issues differ greatly in age and character, but voters in both parties share concerns about each. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors from Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

China’s July trade data showed ongoing growth in exports—some of this reflects re-exporting. The gap between what China says it is selling to the US and what the US admits to buying from China has reached extraordinary levels. China’s market share of US non-oil imports is 13.2% (China export data) or 8.4% (US import data). This suggests China’s US customers have become adept at avoiding tariffs, supporting China’s export sector.

Markets’ responses to last Friday’s US employment report rebuke US monetary policy communication. The report showed strong payrolls growth, but unemployment rates drifted very slowly higher. The labor market is not creating accelerating wages. Market rate hike expectations increased, but the decision is still essentially a coin toss. With a clearly communicated framework for monetary policy, markets would not be plagued by such indecision.

With inflation and labor data providing a mixed picture on the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the Fed faces a closely balanced decision between a rate hike and a hold. This episode explores what either outcome could mean for the yield curve, equity valuations, and portfolio positioning in an environment of uncertain policy outlook.

Shane drops by ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend to update on this week’s developments up on Capitol Hill, including Congressional efforts to keep the government funded, and progress on the Open-Source AI Leadership Act. Plus, an update on renewed military tensions between the US and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy