Financial markets expected a significant tax increase from US President Trump. Yesterday’s reaction shows the tax increase was worse than anticipated. US dollar weakness is telling. We often hear that when the US sneezes the global economy catches cold. This is not the US sneezing. This is the US cutting off its own arm. The self-inflicted economic cost naturally weakens the dollar. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks today on the economic outlook.
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3:15
Washington Weekly Podcast: The latest on tariffs, Special election takeaways
In the wake of the latest tariff news out of the White House, Shane reflects on the impacts to US trading relationships around the globe, along with how trading partners are responding. Plus, an analysis of this week’s special elections in Florida and Wisconsin, and what the outcomes suggest about voter sentiment. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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13:42
Top of the Morning: ‘POTUS 47 Series: Latest on tariffs, the economic and market impact’
An inventory of Wednesday’s tariff announcement by the Trump administration, along with an assessment of potential economic impacts, and reflections on the global market response. Plus, thoughts on how to manage portfolios during times of volatility and uncertainty. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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17:43
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Well….'
US President Trump unveiled a massive tax increase for US companies and consumers. Tariffs were set at (0.5 x bilateral trade deficit / US imports). This is a predictable formula, completely unrelated to trade openness. The uninhabited Heard and Macdonald Islands get a 10% tariffs (will the penguins retaliate?). This may cause investors to question the competence of the administration’s trade policy.
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3:26
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Economists’ ignorance is the problem'
Economists know what they don’t know. US President Trump is expected to announce the largest peacetime tax increase in US history. The erratic nature of trade policy, uncertainty about whether legal procedures will be followed, limited clarity about end-objectives, the possibility that Trump will again retreat from some taxes, and the unpredictability of patronage-style deals to gain exemptions create uncertainty about the direct effect of the taxes. The second-round effects depend on unpredictable reactions by US companies, a far more complex global trade system than existed 20 years ago, and US consumers whose reaction to inflation has shifted.
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