UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Iran and Oman are close to agreeing on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. While this may not signal an immediate reopening of the strait, it does suggest Iran is considering reopening the strait. Crude oil prices have fallen (although gasoline prices in the US remain comfortably over USD 4 per US gallon).

This special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book presentation series outlines how businesses are embracing AI adoption, the implications of AI usage to operating efficiency, the evolving regulatory and political landscape surrounding AI heading into the US midterm elections, along with the factors behind the recent decline in token price. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US affordability crisis stays in the headlines, with US President Trump suggesting a doubling of tariffs paid by US importers of Canadian cars. However, these tariffs would not take effect until 1 January and investors are likely to assume the US will retreat (this has been the pattern with similar threats).

The collapse of trade talks between Canada and the US resulted in US importers being charged tariffs on a further USD 20bn of imports. Import prices (where the tariff is levied) typically represent about 40% of the end-consumer price. These tariffs will be harder than others to avoid. China seems to have helped its US customers avoid or reduce tariffs by rerouting goods—that is not economically practical for Canada.

Jackson Hole puts the Federal Reserve’s policy trade-off into focus: a rate-sensitive housing market is under pressure, while AI investment remains exceptionally strong. This episode explores how AI-led growth may complicate inflation signals, and what that could mean for the policy outlook.