In the past day, the US fired on Iran, Iran fired on Kuwait, Israel fired on Lebanon, US President Trump threatened to “blow up” Oman. The US administration says the ceasefire (sic) is holding. Market reactions have been negative but muted. Investors are eyeing US domestic political pressures as grounds for expecting a resolution, in spite of Trump’s denials. Trump’s approval rating hit a new low in a recent opinion poll, and the administration is being directly blamed for higher prices.