VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

• EPISODE 9 | Is NBAA Still Relevant - And What it Says About the Future of Business Aviation | 10/30/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO of VREFLength: ~28 minutesEpisode OverviewIn this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard, unfiltered look at the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention — the industry’s flagship event that once defined dealmaking, advocacy, and innovation in business aviation.But in an era of digital transactions, sustainability mandates, and shifting buyer demographics, is NBAA still relevant? Or has it become a nostalgic echo of what business aviation used to be?Drawing on more than three decades of insider experience — from OEM partnerships to appraisals, advocacy, and firsthand memories of the show’s heyday — Jason explores whether the industry’s premier event is evolving fast enough to meet the realities of today’s market.In This EpisodeHow NBAA became the heartbeat of business aviation — and when it started to lose momentumWhy today’s show feels more like a reunion than a marketplaceThe “static display paradox” — the sustainability hypocrisy no one wants to talk aboutThe vanishing middle of the aircraft market and the industry’s obsession with ultra-long-range jetsHow the next generation of buyers is changing what success looks like in private aviationWhy today’s wealth prefers discretion over displayThe Phenom 300 case study — proof that practicality still winsA blueprint for how NBAA could evolve: digital engagement, data access, and meaningful innovationKey TakeawaysNBAA isn’t dead — but it’s at a crossroads. Its future depends on whether it adapts to new buyer values and modern expectations.Optics have replaced operations. Today’s trade show feels more performative than productive — and that’s a problem.The industry’s middle market is missing. Between turboprops and $80M long-range jets, there’s a massive gap waiting to be filled.Younger generations buy differently. They want efficiency, data, and discretion — not photo ops.Sustainability needs authenticity. The static display’s waste contradicts the industry’s green messaging.It’s time for a new model. NBAA could evolve into a year-round digital platform for verified data, advocacy, and true innovation.Jason’s Truth“Not every buyer wants a floating boardroom. Some of us just want a reliable airplane that gets us where we need to go without burning through a trust fund. Innovation shouldn’t mean bigger and more expensive — it should mean smarter, leaner, and built for people who actually fly.”Mentioned in This EpisodeNBAA Business Aviation Convention & ExhibitionEmbraer Phenom 300 & Praetor 500Gulfstream G550, Dassault Falcon 7XTextron Aviation, JSSIEAA AirVenture and Sun ’n FunVREF Online Aircraft Valuation PlatformBrought to You ByVREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com.The full show notes can be see at https://vref.com/news/episode-9-is-nbaa-still-relevant-and-what-it-says-about-the-future-of-business-aviation-10-30-25/

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• EPISODE 8 | Time Kills Deals: How Aircraft Transactions Really Close (and Blow Up) | 10/23/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation.Topic: The messy middle between accepted offer and title transfer—what’s supposed to happen, what actually happens, how deals go off the rails, and how to protect yourself.Episode SummaryJason pulls the curtain back on the transaction phase: LOIs, deposits, pre-buys, escrow, title and liens, and closing mechanics. You’ll learn why “time kills deals,” the most common failure points, and how psychology, paperwork, and poor preparation can turn a routine purchase into a costly, month-long fight. Jason also walks through a real “deal from hell” that morphed from a 30-day plan into a multi-year headache—and the concrete lessons it left behind for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and escrow.Key TakeawaysTime kills deals. The longer a transaction drags, the more uncertainty, second-guessing, and failure points creep in.Process over fairy tales. Perfect two-week closings with flawless logs are outliers; plan for friction.Paper beats promises. A clear, signed LOI is the roadmap. Without it, you’re gambling.Pre-buy is non-negotiable. Skipping it is how small problems become existential ones.Escrow is protection, not a formality. Read the agreement; demand transparency; verify ownership, liens, and title.Soft markets amplify friction. Buyers press leverage, sellers panic over carrying costs, lenders get cautious.Airplanes don’t kill deals—people do. Ego, impatience, and poor communication are the real culprits.The Ideal Transaction Flow (What Should Happen)Letter of Intent (LOI) signedDefines terms, pre-buy scope, who pays for what, defaults, closing mechanics.Sent to escrow.Deposit to escrow (5–10%)Typically refundable until technical acceptance; then it goes “hard.”Required before lender issues a funding commitment.Pre-buy inspection (at OEM-authorized or reputable independent facility)Logbook review, borescope, engine runs, oil analysis, known trouble spots.Confirms serials on engines/props/APU; surfaces corrosion and compliance gaps.More show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-8-time-kills-deals-how-aircraft-transactions-really-close-and-blow-up-10-23-25Resources MentionedIf you’re preparing to buy or sell, don’t guess. Ground your decisions in real data with VREF Online and avoid the traps discussed in this episode.VREF Online — Real-time aircraft values, operating cost estimates, and depreciation forecasts for 900+ models. Make decisions with data, not hunches. https://vref.com/vref-online-aircraft-valuation-platform/Listen to Past EpisodesEpisode page: https://vref.com/news/category/podcast/

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• EPISODE 7 | The Truth About Off-Market Aircraft, Back-to-Back Deals, and Why You Still Need a Broker | 10/16/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesSummaryIn one of the most revealing episodes yet, Jason pulls back the curtain on three of the aviation industry’s most misunderstood—and often misused—practices: off-market aircraft, back-to-back transactions, and the broker’s role in 2025. He explains why these deals tempt buyers and sellers alike with promises of speed, exclusivity, and discretion—and why, more often than not, they lead straight into confusion, inflated prices, and even fraud.Drawing on decades of hands-on experience as a dealer, appraiser, and expert witness, Jason dissects how these structures work, where they go wrong, and how a skilled broker can be the difference between a seamless closing and a financial disaster.Topics CoveredThe Illusion of the “Off-Market” AdvantageWhy exclusivity, speed, and confidentiality attract buyers.How real off-market opportunities differ from rumor-based listings.The role of trusted broker networks in legitimate private transactions.When “Off-Market” Turns UglyThe dangers of price opacity and multiple false listings.How missing serial numbers, fake mandates, and altered specs erode trust.Case examples of fraudulent transactions, missing logbooks, and hidden liens.Why buyers have fewer consumer protections purchasing an aircraft than a car.Understanding Back-to-Back TransactionsWhat a back-to-back actually is—and why it’s often misunderstood.How they’re used to disguise markups, hide commissions, or inflate prices.Real-world consequences: lawsuits, escrow confusion, and legal exposure.The rare cases where a properly disclosed back-to-back can serve a legitimate purpose.Historical Context and Modern ParallelsHow the Wright Brothers’ early sales disputes mirror today’s representation chaos.Why transparency problems have been baked into aviation since its inception.More show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-7-the-truth-about-off-market-aircraft-back-to-back-deals-and-why-you-still-need-a-broker-10-16-25/Quotable Moments“You have more consumer protection buying a dishwasher than buying an airplane.” “Transparency isn’t bureaucracy—it’s protection.” “A good broker is your shield. A bad deal is your lawsuit waiting to happen.”Listen NowHear Episode 7 of The Truth About the Market wherever you get your podcasts, or stream it directly at VREF.com/podcast.Call to ActionTo explore current aircraft values and learn how real-world transparency impacts pricing, visit VREF.com. For market data, appraisals, or guidance on your next acquisition or sale, contact [email protected].

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• EPISODE 6 | What the Market is Really Saying | 10/8/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesOverviewIn this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason turns the spotlight on the aviation community itself. Drawing from the latest VREF Market Sentiment Survey, which gathered responses from over 1,000 buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and operators, he breaks down what people across the industry are seeing, feeling, and planning for as 2025 comes to a close.From shifting inventory trends and rising operating costs to tightening loan conditions and the widening gap between buyer optimism and seller expectations, Jason walks through the key insights that define today’s market. This isn’t speculation—it’s a direct look at what aviation professionals are actually saying about the year ahead.In This EpisodeMarket Mood: The community is evenly divided between optimism, caution, and pessimism—a sign of a truly transitional market.Inventory Trends: Aircraft are taking longer to sell as buyers slow down and sellers recalibrate pricing.Financing and Affordability: Interest rates, stricter LTV ratios, and higher costs are reshaping purchase behavior across all segments.Maintenance and Upgrades: MRO backlogs, high costs, and split opinions on engine programs are affecting both resale and operations.Regional Differences: U.S. respondents cite financing concerns, Europeans focus on sustainability, Latin Americans on parts and skilled labor, and Middle Eastern and Asian buyers on access to new aircraft.Buyer Priorities: Transparency, clear pedigree, fewer pre-buy surprises, and more flexible lending options top the list of what customers want most.Market Heat Map: Jason identifies which aircraft are selling fast, which are stabilizing, and which are now deep in buyer’s market territory.Negotiation Strategy: How to read days-on-market data, act decisively in hot segments, and stay patient when leverage shifts.Jason’s Takeaway“We’re not looking at a collapse—we’re looking at normalization. The frenzy is over, and the market is finding its balance again. This is where informed buyers and realistic sellers both win. In aviation today, certainty and clarity are the new currency.”Listen Now If You Want ToUnderstand how your peers are viewing the next 12 months of the marketLearn which aircraft segments are holding value and which are softeningGet Jason’s guidance on pricing, financing, and remarketing strategyBenchmark your expectations against real, data-backed industry sentimentSee the Full ReportFor charts, detailed breakdowns, and Jason’s complete written analysis of the 2025 VREF Market Sentiment Survey, visit vref.com/results.

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• EPISODE 5 | Can I Afford That Airplane? | 9/29/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroduction“Can I afford that airplane?” Jason tackles the question he hears every week—moving past listing prices to the real math behind financing structures, down payments, LTV, amortization, liquidity and net-worth requirements, fixed vs. variable operating costs, and practical rules of thumb. With real aircraft examples and monthly/annual budget breakdowns, this episode shows how to evaluate affordability without getting blindsided.Topics Covered1) Myth-Busting: Asking Price ≠ AffordabilityAffordability = (Upfront cash) + (Financing terms) + (Ongoing operating costs).Airplanes are more like commercial assets than cars; regulations and maintenance make the cost stack steeper and more complex.2) How Aircraft Financing Really WorksLoan-to-Value (LTV): Typical ranges 70–85%; older/large-cabin jets often tighter.Down payment: Usually 15–30% of purchase price (or appraised value, if lower).Terms & amortization: Commonly 5–15 years; balloons frequent on larger jets.Rates (contextual): Recent deals in the low-to-mid 6–7% range, credit- and asset-dependent.Credit vs. collateral: Most lenders are credit-first; collateral-based loans trade speed for higher rates, bigger down, stricter covenants, reappraisals, and faster repos if covenants break.3) Real-World Examples (Illustrative Math)Citation (light jet), $3.5M:25% down = $875k; finance $2.625M @ ~7.25% / 15 yrs ≈ $23.8k/mo debt service.Add maintenance reserves/programs ≈ $10–15k/mo (contextual).Typical expectations: net worth $10–15M, liquidity ≈ 10–15% of loan + 12 months payments.Complete show notes at https://vref.com/news/episode-5-can-i-afford-that-airplane-9-29-25Closing & Next EpisodeEpisode 5 lays out the real math of ownership so you can answer, “Can I afford that airplane?” with confidence.Next up: deeper dives into DOC/FOC modeling and how to structure ownership (solo, fractional, partnerships) without blowing up your budget—or your relationships.Let VREF help you value your aircraft

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