VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

Why the End of 100LL Isn’t About Lead… and Never Was
Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF
When the FAA formally committed to phasing out 100LL, the announcement sounded calm, technical, and inevitable.
But strip away the press language, and what’s left is the largest structural change to piston aviation since the jet age split general aviation in half.
In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason digs into what the industry still hasn’t fully absorbed:
fuel isn’t just fuel—it’s the hidden margin that holds engine design, maintenance economics, training viability, aircraft values, insurance, and financing together.
This isn’t a political conversation. It’s not nostalgia. And it’s not resistance to progress.
It’s about what breaks first, who pays for it, and why this decision unfolded the way it did.
In this episode, we cover:
• Why removing lead is not a simple octane swap • The unique role lead played as a detonation suppressant—not a performance enhancer • Which piston engines are most exposed (and why turbocharged aircraft sit at the center of the risk) • The quiet economic degradation that comes before mechanical failure • Why flight schools are the first real casualties of the transition • How fuel uncertainty collapses training margins, fleet viability, and rental economics • What G100UL actually solves—and what it doesn’t • Why G100UL is a bridge, not a destination • The FAA’s procedural strategy—and why this wasn’t a traditional rulemaking fight • Why E85 was never a serious aviation solution (despite what it looks like on paper) • How the piston fleet will stratify into survivors, marginal operators, and orphans • Why synthetic fuels are the real endgame—and why they won’t be cheap • How training pipelines will permanently change (younger aircraft, electric trainers, more simulators) • Why this was never about preserving the entire piston fleet • And how aviation doesn’t end—it compresses
Jason also explains why this transition will reshape aircraft values more than any avionics upgrade ever has, and why economic gravity—not safety bans—will determine which airplanes remain viable.
The bottom line:
This was never just a fuel change. It was a filter.
And years from now, when piston aviation is smaller, newer, cleaner, and far more expensive, this moment will be recognized as the inflection point.
If you’re buying, selling, training, financing, or simply trying to understand where piston aviation is actually headed—this episode matters.
Complete podcast and show notes can be found on https://vref.com/podcast
For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.
Fly safe. Stay smart.

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF
In this episode of VREF: The Truth About the Market, Jason addresses a growing and troubling trend in aviation commentary: non-aviators publishing financial conclusions about aircraft maintenance—then disclaiming all responsibility for the consequences.
This is not a debate about spreadsheets or abstract models. It’s about safety, risk, marketability, and accountability—and what happens when those realities are ignored.
In this episode, Jason breaks down:
Why aviation is fundamentally different from every other asset class
The critical mistake of treating aircraft like spreadsheets instead of operating machines
How abstract data analysis collapses when it ignores risk, safety of flight, and market friction
Why the claim that “engine overhauls don’t add value” misses the real question entirely
The difference between partial cost recovery and preserving marketability
How selective sampling and survivor bias distort valuation conclusions
What doesn’t show up in scraped data:Failed deals
Declined loans
Insurance refusals
Aircraft that quietly disappear from the market

Why lenders refinance aircraft because of overhauls—not in spite of them
How overdue or marginal engines routinely kill financing and shrink buyer pools
The real downstream consequences owners don’t see when maintenance is deferred
Why “you don’t get 100% back” is a straw-man argument professionals never make
How authority without responsibility becomes dangerous in aviation
The fine print that exposes “analysis” with no accountability
Why AI and abstract models fail when used as substitutes for judgment
The difference between computation and experience in aviation decision-making
Key takeaway:
Engine overhauls are not investments. They are risk management decisions.
Their value is not theoretical—it lives at the intersection of safety, finance, insurance, and real market behavior.
No serious aviation professional expects dollar-for-dollar recovery. What matters is whether an aircraft remains financeable, insurable, and sellable.
This episode is for:
Aircraft owners
Buyers and sellers
Lenders and insurers
Brokers and maintenance professionals
Anyone relying on “data-driven” conclusions without understanding aviation reality
Final word:
Aviation does not reward shortcuts. It rewards judgment, experience, and respect for risk.
And when abstraction fails in aviation, it doesn’t fail quietly—it fails expensively.
For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.
Fly safe. Stay smart.

Complete Podcast Series can be found at https://vref.com/podcast

Episode Summary
Aircraft financing looks like a simple rate-shopping exercise… until you’re the one stuck in a bad structure, a surprise covenant, or a refinance that won’t clear because the original valuation doesn’t hold up.
In this long-form, name-names episode, Jason breaks down how aircraft lending really works (spoiler: lenders underwrite exit liquidity, not your dream), the difference between banks, finance companies, capital/private credit, and credit unions—and where brokers add real value vs. hidden cost.
Jason also shares a curated list of active finance brokers he consistently sees execute clean transactions across market cycles, then closes with the mistakes that cost owners the most after closing: non-USPAP “valuations,” replacement-cost thinking, balloons, and covenants nobody reads.
Get the complete list of VREF-Recommended Brokers and Lenders in downloadable format at:
vref.com/resources
What You’ll Learn
Why aircraft lending is nothing like residential mortgages
The concept lenders actually care about: exit liquidity
Why the airplane is “conditional collateral” (and what else is being underwritten)
Why identical borrowers can get wildly different terms on the same aircraft
The differences between:Major banks
Regional/tier-two banks
Specialty lenders/finance companies
Private credit/capital firms
Credit unions (and why airline credit unions are a cheat code for pilots)

When a broker helps—and when a broker is just friction + embedded cost
How brokers get paid (and why “free” is rarely free):Bank-paid points
Rate spread
Double-dipping (bank points plus borrower fees)

Why commercial-use lending is an entirely different universe
The two lender/broker categories Jason says consistently create problems (without naming names)
When going direct to a bank beats using a broker—especially for refis
The “Big Four” requirements that separate consistent aviation lenders from everyone else
Why structure beats rate shopping (especially with SOFR-based pricing)
Practical examples: how terms/LTV/rates change at $5M, $500K, and $250K aircraft price points
The real “gotchas” that explode later:Non-USPAP valuations
Replacement cost =/= market value
Balloons
Covenants (where the real pain lives)

Why now can be a strong refinancing window—and how to structure for optionality
COMPLETE PODCAST AND SHOW NOTES CAN BE SEEN AT https://vref.com/podcast/
Tactical Takeaways
Use a broker when access is the problem (small/older/non-standard aircraft, thin deals, commercial use, weaker credit, outside your banking relationships).
Call to Action
Get the complete list of VREF-Recommended Brokers and Lenders in downloadable format at: vref.com/resources
For help getting pointed to the right lender/broker: [email protected]
For valuations, appraisals, and VREF Online: VREF.com

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF
Episode Overview
In this episode, Jason breaks down a shift many people in aviation feel but haven’t fully named yet: the traditional progression from one aircraft to the next is gone.
For decades, aviation ownership followed a ladder. You started somewhere reasonable, stretched your mission, and moved up as experience, income, and need grew. That ladder quietly disappeared — not because of failure, but because OEMs intentionally redesigned the market around fewer buyers, higher margins, and emotionally driven pricing.
This episode explains why new aircraft prices no longer align with capability, why product lines no longer guide buyers forward, and why confusion in today’s market isn’t a lack of knowledge — it’s a lack of transparency about how the rules changed.
Jason walks through pistons, turboprops, light jets, and large-cabin aircraft to show how new airplanes have become luxury goods, while used aircraft have become the true transportation assets — and why misunderstanding that distinction is where buyers get hurt.
What You’ll Discover in This Episode
Why the traditional “step-up” ladder in aviation officially no longer exists
How OEMs intentionally shifted toward fewer buyers with more money — and why they won’t reverse course
Why million-dollar piston aircraft aren’t about transportation anymore
What the $1.8M Mooney really represents — and who it’s actually built for
The psychological difference between mission-based buyers and identity-based buyers
Why Cirrus sells certainty while Mooney sells identity — and how that shapes pricing
The hidden reason turboprops became the real entry point for serious buyers
Why pistons become emotionally exhausting above certain price thresholds
How turboprops quietly win on trust, predictability, and ownership psychology
Why light jets stopped being stepping stones and became “containment devices”
How VLJs transformed from democratization tools into status anchors
The dangerous $12–$18M decision zone where logic, ego, and mission creep collide
What the Citation Ascend, HondaJet Echelon, and Denali reveal about OEM strategy
Jason’s Truth
“New aircraft are no longer stepping stones. They’re luxury goods. Used aircraft are the real transportation assets. Confusing the two is expensive. Understanding the difference is power.”
Key Themes Discussed
OEM margin strategy vs. buyer mission alignment
Identity-driven purchasing vs. utility-driven ownership
Emotional insurance and its impact on valuation
Why scarcity narratives break when confidence shifts
How cycles punish emotional pricing and reward discipline
Brought to You By
VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals
When new prices stop making sense, valuation discipline matters more than ever. Whether you’re buying, selling, financing, or trying to understand where the market is actually headed, VREF keeps you grounded in facts — not emotional anchors.
Know what an aircraft is really worth before the market reminds you the hard way. Visit vref.com to get started.
Complete podcasts can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/

Episode Overview
Artificial intelligence is coming for aviation — fast… But is the industry actually ready for it?
In Episode 18 of The Truth About the Market, Jason tackles one of the most requested topics of the year and strips away the hype to examine the real constraints, risks, and opportunities AI presents across aviation.
This is not a futurist fantasy episode. It’s a grounded, experience-driven look at what AI can do, what it can’t, and why the industry’s biggest obstacles aren’t technical — they’re structural, legal, and human.
In this episode, Jason breaks down:
Why aviation needs AI more than almost any other industry — and simultaneously resists it harder than most
How fragmented data, paper logbooks, proprietary systems, and inconsistent records undermine AI effectiveness
Why OCR, digitization, and “AI-powered” platforms are not the same as clean, usable intelligence
The danger of AI becoming a sophisticated guessing engine when fed imperfect or biased data
Why liability — not technology — is the real reason AI adoption is slow in aviation
How scraped listings, inferred comps, and broker-built AI tools distort valuation and introduce financial risk
Where AI will make real, near-term impact:Predictive maintenance
Real-time operational intelligence
Training and adaptive simulation
Inventory and supply-chain optimization
Fraud detection in pre-buys and maintenance records

Why AI will not replace appraisers — but will absolutely expose bad data, bad actors, and bad assumptions
The difference between AI as a decision-support tool versus AI as a sales weapon
What aviation actually needs for AI to work:
Standardized data formatsClear responsibility and liability rules
Cybersecurity hardening
Human-in-the-loop integration
Regulatory explainability and auditability

Why aviation doesn’t fear automation — it fears unexplainable automation
What the next decade realistically looks like for AI adoption across GA, business aviation, and commercial fleets
A real-world auto-land event that marks a turning point for AI-augmented flight safety
Why the future isn’t human or machine — it’s human judgment augmented by machine intelligence
The Bottom Line
AI isn’t here to replace aviation professionals. It’s here to replace professionals who refuse to evolve.
Those who treat AI as a tool — grounded in verified data, professional standards, and accountability — will operate safer, smarter, and more efficiently. Those chasing hype, shortcuts, or narrative-driven automation will introduce risk the market will eventually punish.
As always, this episode is sponsor-free, opinionated, and grounded in real-world aviation experience — not press releases or pitch decks.
Complete Show Podcasts and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/