VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

To sell a house in Illinois, you need a license. To broker a used yacht in Florida, you need a license, fingerprints, a background check, and a bond.
To sell a $35 million business jet in the United States?
“You need a phone.”
In the last 12 months, VREF tracked roughly 4,000 retail business jet and turboprop sales. More than 500 companies appeared as brokers or dealers. About half showed up on just one deal all year.
The aircraft is regulated. The pilot is regulated. The mechanic and operator are regulated. But who watches the people negotiating the sale, holding the wire, selling the jet card, or arranging the lease?
The closer you are to the airplane, the more you're regulated. The closer you are to the money, the less you're regulated.
This episode, Jason Zilberbrand asks one of the most polarizing questions the industry faces:
Is it time to regulate business aviation's middlemen?
In this episode:Who is regulated today—and who isn't—from pilots and Part 135 operators to charter brokers, sales brokers, escrow agents, and jet-card providers
Why prepaid private-aviation customers may have fewer protections than public-charter passengers
Three possible rulemakers: federal agencies, state licensing boards, or an industry-funded organization under government oversight
What cabotage means, why America restricts who can fly paying passengers domestically, and the uncomfortable question it raises about who can sell an airplane
The case FOR regulation: unprotected deposits, opaque transactions, financial failures, illegal charter, and gaps in accountability
The case AGAINST: the fraud was already illegal, sophisticated buyers have advisers, regulators are stretched thin, licensing favors incumbents, and business could move offshore
What car dealers, yacht brokers, and real estate got right about licensing, bonds, escrow, and disclosures
What Bernie Madoff, fragmented mortgage oversight, and the luxury tax teach us about rules that failed
Five policy choices, from basic broker disclosures to full licensing and bonding
Six actions you can take this week to protect yourself without waiting for Washington
Jason lays out five options:
Require written disclosures about who a broker represents, owns, and gets paid by.
Require client deposits to go into independent escrow—not an operating account.
Protect prepaid jet-card and membership balances with escrow or bonds.
License and bond aircraft escrow and trust agents.
Require formal licensing, checks, bonds, and discipline for aircraft brokers and dealers.
The first four focus on transparency and the money. The fifth goes further: Who should be allowed to sell?
The bottom line:We decided long ago that it matters who flies an airplane.
But does it matter who sells it, who holds the money, and who arranges the deal?
This time, you get the last word.
Should there be more regulation? Which option would you choose—1 through 5, none, or something else? Tell us whether you're an owner, buyer, broker, dealer, operator, lender, or attorney. Comment or email info@vref.com. Jason plans to count the responses and share compelling arguments from both sides in a future episode.
Know the number before you make the deal. VREF.com
Fly safe. Stay smart.

A listener went shopping for a mid-’90s Piper Archer.
Low time. No damage history. Original paint. Original panel. Engine close to TBO.
The seller was asking $189,000. VREF put the airplane at roughly $165,000.
The buyer was prepared to offer $175,000 cash—and says he would have gone to $180,000.
He never got the chance.
According to the listener, the broker dismissed the VREF number and said the Archer would be the next one to sell.
That was June.
By the end of September, the airplane was still sitting.
New asking price:
$165,000.
The seller turned away the possibility of $175,000, carried the airplane for another three months, and wound up asking $10,000 less than the buyer was prepared to pay.
That story is the perfect introduction to today’s piston market.
Because the market isn’t crashing.
It’s splitting in two.
In this episode:
Why the current piston data does not support the “market crash” narrative
How inventory can be down while individual airplanes sit for 200+ days
Why listing pages can become a museum of overpriced airplanes
How 2021–2022 values created a psychological anchor sellers still haven’t released
Why free listing-site valuation widgets can become a self-reinforcing hall of mirrors
The difference between values built from asking prices and values built from actual transactions
Real asking-price spreads among Piper Archers, Cessna 172s, Cirruses, Mooneys, and Bonanzas
Why two nearly identical airplanes can be priced $50,000, $80,000, even $200,000 apart
How new-aircraft replacement cost supports parts of the used market—but does not validate every asking price
Why flight-school fleet aircraft returning to market could become an important source of supply
What 10,000–16,000-hour trainers really mean for private buyers
Why school-aircraft pre-buys should focus on cycles, wear, landing history, and physical condition—not just total time
How higher interest rates, down payments, insurance, and lender appraisals are shrinking the effective buyer pool
Why an appraisal below the seller’s ask can suddenly require the buyer to bring tens of thousands more cash to closing
Why a $60,000 avionics installation does not necessarily add $60,000 to resale value years later
Whether appraisers are actually “too low”—or sellers are simply pricing above what the closing market supports
A second Archer negotiation involving a large gap between ask and VREF—and a proposed direct wire to the seller’s operating account
Why Jason says aircraft buyers should use escrow rather than eliminate the protections built into a transaction
How that same listener ultimately found a privately listed SR20 priced near VREF and closed on it within weeks
What happened when unexpected engine problems appeared after closing
Why buyers should consider holdbacks or reserve escrow when meaningful engine uncertainty exists
How to make a serious aircraft offer harder for a broker to dismiss
And what sellers should ask their broker before letting an airplane sit for another 90 days
If your airplane has been listed since spring, the question isn’t whether “the piston market” is good or bad.
It’s:
Which market are you actually in?
Watch or listen to Episode 61 of The Truth About the Aviation Market.
VREF.com
Price to the market—not the memory of it.
Fly safe. Stay smart. Pasted text

For more than four decades, one story helped define the legacy Citation market:
This is the jet you can fly yourself.
Your first jet. Your hands on the throttles. Your family in the back. Nobody required in the right seat.
At the end of September 2026, that story changed.
The FAA ended the single-pilot exemptions that allowed qualifying pilots to operate a group of Part 25-certified legacy Citations without the second pilot their type certificates otherwise required.
VREF’s analysis puts the affected U.S. civil fleet at 1,212 aircraft.
In this episode:Which Citation models are affected—and which are not
Why affected aircraft are not grounded, but now require a qualified second in command
Why former exemption-based single-pilot endorsements no longer authorize solo operation
How the exemption system was supposed to work—and what the FAA says it found when it began reviewing it in 2024
Why 13 of 14 Part 61 exemption holders ultimately losing or being denied continued authority matters
Allegations involving incomplete records, improper checks, unauthorized simulator training, and falsified records
Why Jason says the FAA review began before the two high-profile 2025 crashes
The difference between what Jason calls the “paper system failing” and a broader culture in which flying these aircraft alone had become normalized
Why the Citation 501/551 SP models, Mustang, and CitationJet/CJ family through the CJ4 are outside this action
Why the rule may shrink the buyer pool for older legacy Citations
How adding a second pilot can materially change annual operating costs
Why a representative 60-hour-per-year Citation II owner could see effective operating cost rise from roughly $1,800 per hour to more than $3,000 per hour once realistic crew costs are included
What VREF found inside the affected fleet: 1,212 aircraft, existing inventory, aging airframes, dealer holdings, and parts-company acquisitions
Why the older legacy Citation market was already weakening before this rule
Why Jason says the FAA action didn’t create the whole problem—it “takes away the floor”
The 57 affected aircraft VREF identified in dealer inventory, including 42 not publicly listed
At least 22 affected aircraft purchased by parts companies since 2021
Why the Citation II versus Citation II SP may become one of the cleanest real-world valuation experiments in aviation
What owners should do now: confirm crew requirements, call the insurance broker, price a qualified SIC, recalculate annual economics, and decide whether to crew up, sell, or move into an aircraft certified for single-pilot operation
VREF.com
Fly safe. Stay smart.

A parent takes out a home-equity line.
A student wires tens of thousands of dollars to a flight school.
The school has experienced instructors, airline partnerships, manufacturer affiliations, national press coverage, and every outward sign of credibility.
Then the school closes.
And the money is gone.
In this episode we look at the financial structure behind prepaid flight training—and why students and families may be taking on far more counterparty risk than they realize.
If you prepay $50,000, $80,000, or $100,000 for training that will be delivered over months or years, you are not just buying lessons.
Economically, you may be making an unsecured, interest-free loan to a private company.
And unlike the aircraft, instructors, maintenance, certificates, and checkrides, the money itself may not be protected by the FAA.
In this episode:The FLYT Aviation case in Georgia, where authorities allege that more than 70 students lost over $500,000 from prepaid accounts, scholarships, and financing programs
Why Jason says the defendants are entitled to their defense
Four flight-school failures or closures discussed across roughly 12 months, across Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Florida
Why students can become unsecured creditors when a school fails
How a change in ownership can expose a gap between student account balances and the cash actually backing them
Why airline partnerships, manufacturer designations, experienced instructors, and national media coverage can create a “prestige halo” without telling you where your money sits
Jason’s criticism of the pattern he describes as: “Promote on the way up. Report on the way down.”
Why the FAA regulates the training but not necessarily the prepaid balance
The economics of America’s aging trainer fleet—and why a school may be operating 40-, 50-, or nearly 60-year-old aircraft with extremely high airframe times
A nine-aircraft trainer fleet Jason is currently appraising, including aircraft with roughly 11,700 to 18,000 hours and multiple engines at or around TBO
Why the cost of a new trainer makes replacement difficult for many schools
How prepaid student balances can become part of a school’s working capital—funding airplanes, overhauls, payroll, and expansion
Why that same structure can become dangerous when enrollment slows, ownership changes, lenders tighten, or the school fails
Jason also gives families a practical checklist before sending money:
Don’t prepay if you don’t have to.
If you do, cap your exposure.
Pay by credit card when possible.
Ask where the money sits—and get the answer in writing.
Read the refund clause before anything else.
Check the legal entity, ownership, lawsuits, BBB history, FAA status, and current student experience.
And understand what protections actually apply if the training is financed.
If you—or your child—are considering flight training, this is one to hear before the wire goes out.
Because the market doesn’t care what the brochure promised.
It only cares where the money is.
Fly safe. Stay smart.

Last episode, Jason explained why nobody should wire eight figures directly to an aircraft seller without escrow.
This episode asks the uncomfortable follow-up:
Why will some of those same sophisticated buyers wire $250,000, $500,000, even $1 million directly to a jet-card company with no escrow, no collateral, no public financial statements, and no guarantee the money is still sitting there when they need it?
Because the industry calls it a deposit.
Jason calls it what it really is:
An unsecured, interest-free loan to a private company.
That doesn’t mean jet cards are scams. For the right traveler, they solve a real problem, and reputable providers deliver exactly what they promise.
But the structure deserves far more scrutiny than it gets.
In Episode 58 of The Truth About the Aviation Market, Jason strips away the marketing and follows the money.
In this episode:
• Why a prepaid jet-card balance behaves more like a loan than a bank deposit
• How Marquis Jet helped create the modern jet-card model by selling access to the NetJets fleet
• Why NetJets repeatedly restricting or stopping card sales during periods of high demand matters
• What it means when a provider with aircraft, pilots, and deep capitalization decides it cannot responsibly sell more promises
• How brokers can sell a fixed hourly rate while buying aircraft in a floating charter market
• Why a profitable spread on an ordinary day can become a loss during Christmas, spring break, the Super Bowl, or another peak period
• How customer deposits can become working capital inside the business
• The difference between true escrow, a segregated account, and an operating account
• Why “segregated” does not necessarily mean the company cannot touch your money
• What the JetSuite bankruptcy revealed about trusting a name versus trusting the structure
• Why the flight can be heavily regulated while the customer’s prepaid balance is not protected like a bank deposit
• Why “our fleet” deserves a closer look when the company is legally a broker
• The risks behind prepaid empty-leg memberships and flight-credit programs
• The nine red flags Jason says should make a buyer slow down before wiring money
• The six due-diligence steps he would take before sending a provider even $1
• Why you should verify the legal entity, UCC filings, actual Part 135 operator, account structure, principals, contract terms, peak-day rules, and expiration provisions
• Why Jason recommends starting with the smallest block, shortest term, and—when available—a credit card instead of a wire
• Why his preferred alternative may be simpler: go directly to the Part 135 operator at your home airport
Jason’s conclusion is not that jet cards are inherently bad.
It’s that they can be a good product wrapped around a financial structure most people would never accept anywhere else in their financial lives.
If you handed a private company half a million dollars as an unsecured, interest-free loan, you would want to know where the money sits, who controls it, what protects you, and what happens if the company fails.
Changing the word from loan to deposit shouldn’t change the questions.
Before you wire, ask:
Where does my money sit?
Who can move it?
Who actually operates my flights?
What happens to my balance if the company disappears?
Because the market doesn’t care what the brochure called it.
It only cares where the money is.
VREF.com
Fly safe. Stay smart.