VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

• EPISODE 12 | Why Your First Airplane Is (Probably) the Wrong Airplane | 11/20/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation.Episode OverviewIn this episode, Jason pulls back the curtain on one of the most common (and expensive) patterns in aviation: the first airplane someone wants to buy is almost always more airplane than they actually need.From turbocharged SR22s to pressurized pistons with FIKI, Jason unpacks how identity, ego, and fantasy missions push first-time buyers into aircraft that outpace their experience, budget, and real-world flying habits.Instead of shaming the mistake, he explains why it happens, how the “honeymoon period” with a new airplane can wreck a budget, and what you can do to avoid becoming the person who buys their first airplane and sells it six months later in a panic.What You’ll Discover in This EpisodeWhy first-time buyers almost always fall in love with the wrong airplane—and the psychological bias behind it that no one thinks applies to them.The hidden reason the airplane you want at midnight on Controller.com is rarely the airplane you can actually live with.The “honeymoon trap” that quietly turns brand-new owners into desperate sellers within 6 months.Why many “must-have” capabilities—FIKI, turbos, pressurization—become the most dangerous liabilities when you’re new to ownership.The surprising truth about what capability actually costs… and why manufacturers market it as safety.The real reason pressurized piston aircraft vanished from modern production—and why most owners never get told the truth.How to know whether an airplane supports your flying life… or silently owns you.The SR22 Turbo dilemma—and why so many first-time buyers unknowingly set themselves up to fly less, not more.The one question that instantly reveals the aircraft you should buy (and the one you should run from)....moreThe full Podocast with complete show notes can be seen here https://vref.com/news/episode-12-why-your-first-airplane-is-probably-the-wrong-airplane-11-20-25/Jason’s Truth“Your first airplane should be built for the life you’re actually living now—not the one you’re auditioning for. The airplane that fits your mission will support you. The airplane that outpaces your mission will own you.”Mentioned in This EpisodeCessna 182Beech Debonair / early BonanzaPiper ArrowMooney M20JGrumman TigerCirrus SR22 / SR22 TurboFIKI, turbocharging, pressurization systemsWarren Buffett & “No Plane No Gain” campaignBrought to You ByVREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re a first-time buyer looking at a 182 or a seasoned operator trading into a turbine, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters.Know what your aircraft is really worth—before you buy, sell, or finance—at vref.com.

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• EPISODE 11 | When Aircraft Sit: Understanding Value in a Slow Market | 11/12/25

  Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Length: ~35 minutes Theme: Why aircraft aren’t selling — and what fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values really mean when the market slows downEpisode OverviewIn this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard look at what happens when aircraft stop moving — not just in the air, but in the resale market. From piston singles and turboprops to light jets, days-on-market have tripled since 2022, and many owners are still pricing aircraft like it’s 2021. Jason breaks down how to interpret real market data, why “seller expectation lag” is slowing deals, and what every owner, buyer, and lender needs to understand about fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values in today’s environment.In This EpisodeWhy aircraft sit on the market — and how the slowdown is showing across categoriesThe difference between Fair Market Value (FMV), Orderly Liquidation Value (OLV), and Forced Liquidation Value (FLV)What lender portfolios and repossessions reveal about market stressThe top six reasons aircraft don’t sell — from high engine times to missing logbooksHow unrealistic pricing and seller denial are distorting the marketWhy cosmetic neglect, outdated avionics, and incomplete records can kill a dealWhat owners can do now to maintain value and liquidity in a cooling marketKey TakeawaysThe 2021 boom is over. Pricing must follow reality, not nostalgia.FMV ≠ listing price. In this market, true fair value can be 10–20% below asking.Liquidation values matter. Lenders use OLV and FLV to gauge real collateral risk.Engine time is still king. Looming overhauls attract bottom feeders, not retail buyers.Logs sell planes. Missing or incomplete documentation can erase financing options.Cosmetics count. Paint, interior, and presentation drive first impressions — and offers.Jason’s Truth“Price follows demand. Demand follows confidence. Sellers who ignore real data are the ones who sit. If you’re still pricing like it’s 2021, you’re already behind.”The Top 6 Reasons Aircraft SitHigh engine times or upcoming overhauls – scare off retail buyers, attract wholesalersOutdated or inoperative avionics – upgrade costs can exceed aircraft value...Full show notes and podcast can seen at https://vref.com/news/episode-11-when-aircraft-sit-understanding-value-in-a-slow-market-11-12-25Brought to You ByVREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com.

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• EPISODE 10 | The Great Engine Shortage: Why Your Program Might Not Save You | 11/4/25

  Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Length: ~45 minutes Theme: The global engine crisis—what caused it, how it’s reshaping aircraft values, and what every operator needs to do nextEpisode OverviewIn this episode, Jason Zilberbrand breaks down one of the biggest challenges facing aviation today: the engine shortage. From skyrocketing overhaul lead times to the myth of “guaranteed coverage,” he exposes how years of labor attrition, supply chain collapse, and OEM monopolization have created the perfect storm.If you’ve struggled to schedule an overhaul, find a loaner engine, or even order basic components, this episode connects the dots—showing why downtime is now the single biggest driver of aircraft value and why traditional engine programs may not protect you the way you think they do.With real-world data, case studies, and practical guidance, Jason walks through how operators, brokers, and lenders can survive the shortage and plan ahead in a system stretched to its limits.In This EpisodeHow the “engine crunch” happened: COVID’s ripple effect, early retirements, supply chain failures, and OEM consolidationWhy your engine program isn’t a safety net: The difference between cost protection and availabilityThe CF34 crisis: How one accident triggered a massive industry-wide service bulletinLoaner engines and logistics: Why they’ve become nearly impossible to findHow downtime destroys value: Why a fresh overhaul now adds more resale power than a program contractThe top-overhaul trap: Why partial rebuilds hurt appraisals and financingThe new engine economy: Scarcity, premiums, and a secondary market for “ready-to-run” powerplantsPredictive maintenance: How real-time analytics are reshaping the future of reliabilityKey TakeawaysDowntime is the new currency. The aircraft that fly are the ones that hold value.Coverage ≠ availability. Engine programs manage cost, not capacity.Fresh engines win every time. Overhauled powerplants drive sales, liquidity, and lender confidence.Transparency matters. Maintenance forecasts and SB compliance now make or break deals.Plan a year out. Reserve slots, pre-order parts, and read the fine print—before it’s too late.Jason’s Truth“Coverage doesn’t equal availability. The smartest operators aren’t just paying their hourly rates—they’re planning ahead. Because in this market, downtime kills deals.”... Complete podcast show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-10/Brought to You ByVREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com.VuPf7m4YgUcFwoYeLBxq

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• EPISODE 9 | Is NBAA Still Relevant - And What it Says About the Future of Business Aviation | 10/30/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO of VREFLength: ~28 minutesEpisode OverviewIn this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard, unfiltered look at the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention — the industry’s flagship event that once defined dealmaking, advocacy, and innovation in business aviation.But in an era of digital transactions, sustainability mandates, and shifting buyer demographics, is NBAA still relevant? Or has it become a nostalgic echo of what business aviation used to be?Drawing on more than three decades of insider experience — from OEM partnerships to appraisals, advocacy, and firsthand memories of the show’s heyday — Jason explores whether the industry’s premier event is evolving fast enough to meet the realities of today’s market.In This EpisodeHow NBAA became the heartbeat of business aviation — and when it started to lose momentumWhy today’s show feels more like a reunion than a marketplaceThe “static display paradox” — the sustainability hypocrisy no one wants to talk aboutThe vanishing middle of the aircraft market and the industry’s obsession with ultra-long-range jetsHow the next generation of buyers is changing what success looks like in private aviationWhy today’s wealth prefers discretion over displayThe Phenom 300 case study — proof that practicality still winsA blueprint for how NBAA could evolve: digital engagement, data access, and meaningful innovationKey TakeawaysNBAA isn’t dead — but it’s at a crossroads. Its future depends on whether it adapts to new buyer values and modern expectations.Optics have replaced operations. Today’s trade show feels more performative than productive — and that’s a problem.The industry’s middle market is missing. Between turboprops and $80M long-range jets, there’s a massive gap waiting to be filled.Younger generations buy differently. They want efficiency, data, and discretion — not photo ops.Sustainability needs authenticity. The static display’s waste contradicts the industry’s green messaging.It’s time for a new model. NBAA could evolve into a year-round digital platform for verified data, advocacy, and true innovation.Jason’s Truth“Not every buyer wants a floating boardroom. Some of us just want a reliable airplane that gets us where we need to go without burning through a trust fund. Innovation shouldn’t mean bigger and more expensive — it should mean smarter, leaner, and built for people who actually fly.”Mentioned in This EpisodeNBAA Business Aviation Convention & ExhibitionEmbraer Phenom 300 & Praetor 500Gulfstream G550, Dassault Falcon 7XTextron Aviation, JSSIEAA AirVenture and Sun ’n FunVREF Online Aircraft Valuation PlatformBrought to You ByVREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com.The full show notes can be see at https://vref.com/news/episode-9-is-nbaa-still-relevant-and-what-it-says-about-the-future-of-business-aviation-10-30-25/

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• EPISODE 8 | Time Kills Deals: How Aircraft Transactions Really Close (and Blow Up) | 10/23/25

  Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation.Topic: The messy middle between accepted offer and title transfer—what’s supposed to happen, what actually happens, how deals go off the rails, and how to protect yourself.Episode SummaryJason pulls the curtain back on the transaction phase: LOIs, deposits, pre-buys, escrow, title and liens, and closing mechanics. You’ll learn why “time kills deals,” the most common failure points, and how psychology, paperwork, and poor preparation can turn a routine purchase into a costly, month-long fight. Jason also walks through a real “deal from hell” that morphed from a 30-day plan into a multi-year headache—and the concrete lessons it left behind for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and escrow.Key TakeawaysTime kills deals. The longer a transaction drags, the more uncertainty, second-guessing, and failure points creep in.Process over fairy tales. Perfect two-week closings with flawless logs are outliers; plan for friction.Paper beats promises. A clear, signed LOI is the roadmap. Without it, you’re gambling.Pre-buy is non-negotiable. Skipping it is how small problems become existential ones.Escrow is protection, not a formality. Read the agreement; demand transparency; verify ownership, liens, and title.Soft markets amplify friction. Buyers press leverage, sellers panic over carrying costs, lenders get cautious.Airplanes don’t kill deals—people do. Ego, impatience, and poor communication are the real culprits.The Ideal Transaction Flow (What Should Happen)Letter of Intent (LOI) signedDefines terms, pre-buy scope, who pays for what, defaults, closing mechanics.Sent to escrow.Deposit to escrow (5–10%)Typically refundable until technical acceptance; then it goes “hard.”Required before lender issues a funding commitment.Pre-buy inspection (at OEM-authorized or reputable independent facility)Logbook review, borescope, engine runs, oil analysis, known trouble spots.Confirms serials on engines/props/APU; surfaces corrosion and compliance gaps.More show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-8-time-kills-deals-how-aircraft-transactions-really-close-and-blow-up-10-23-25Resources MentionedIf you’re preparing to buy or sell, don’t guess. Ground your decisions in real data with VREF Online and avoid the traps discussed in this episode.VREF Online — Real-time aircraft values, operating cost estimates, and depreciation forecasts for 900+ models. Make decisions with data, not hunches. https://vref.com/vref-online-aircraft-valuation-platform/Listen to Past EpisodesEpisode page: https://vref.com/news/category/podcast/

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