Beyond Markets

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but it also increased its forecast for 2026 GDP, from 1.9% to 2.1%, hardly a rate that would necessitate a long string of further cuts. Multiple forces are pulling the economy in different directions, so the 10-year treasury yield will likely continue to move in the same wide band it’s been in since 2023. Recent local elections have tilted strongly in favour of Democrats, and Trump’s approval ratings are low. It is possible next year’s mid-term elections go strongly in the Democrats’ favour, and the administration has less power than it does now. With economically-sensitive stock market indices like mid and small caps, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 equal-weighted index all breaking to new highs, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Chinese equities are entering 2026 on a strong footing, with policy tailwinds from the upcoming Five-Year Plan expected to sustain momentum despite recent consolidation. While tech-led rallies have dominated, attention is shifting toward domestic consumption as policymakers prioritise demand-side reforms—a potential turnaround for lagging consumer sectors if stimulus materialises.Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over stretched valuations in US tech and AI names underscore the case for diversifying into non-US markets, such as China and Japan. Structural drivers, including a weaker U.S. dollar and gradual yuan appreciation, add to the appeal. On commodities, strong fundamentals and AI-driven demand for industrial metals signal further upside, building on this year’s broad-based rally in materials.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

As 2025 draws to a close, investors are reflecting on a year that tested their emotional discipline – from Liberation Day tariffs to geopolitical events that sent markets into turmoil. What separated those who thrived from those who struggled? In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Helen Freer sits down with Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory at Julius Baer, to discuss what worked well and what worked less well this year, why resisting the urge to react emotionally was crucial, and what lies ahead for 2026. They explore the ongoing AI story and how to diversify exposure along the value chain, the case for reducing USD concentration, and why currencies like the Australian dollar and structured products deserve a closer look as investors position for the year ahead.(00:11) - Introduction (00:53) - The role of Client Coverage and Advisory (01:37) - What worked well in 2025 (03:28) - What didn't go according to plan (04:42) - Why 2025 was so tough to navigate (06:26) - Can the AI story continue in 2026? (08:56) - Reducing USD exposure without sacrificing yield (11:19) - Three levels of diversification (12:56) - How to deploy fresh capital now (14:49) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

ADP’s tally of 120,000 small firm job losses in November, and a decline in September Core PCE inflation, both help the case for a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting this Wednesday. On the markets front, Wall Street strategists are forecasting an average of 9% return for the S&P 500 index next year. Two technical indicators suggest an even larger return is probable.Meanwhile, it’s almost impossible to keep up with all that’s going on in the world of Artificial Intelligence, but what’s clear is the stock market favours AI adopters. Interestingly, the share prices of companies citing AI on Q3 conference calls have returned 14% on average year-to-date, vs. an average return of 6% for those that didn’t cite it.

Signs of a slowing economy, and speculation of a very dovish new Federal Reserve chairman in May 2026, are behind the futures market pricing in substantial rate cuts over the next year. Historically, substantially lower rates weaken the dollar and boost precious metals. Silver has made a new high and has formed what is arguably the most bullish technical pattern, William O’Neil’s “cup and handle” formation. On the technology front, Alphabet's low-cost semiconductors present unexpected competition for Nvidia. Things like that will determine the performance of technology companies’ share prices for the foreseeable future. Longer term, the “Holy Grail” that technology companies seek is Artificial General Intelligence - AI that thinks like a human. Its impact to humanity could be very beneficial, or deeply detrimental.