Cleaning Up: Leadership in an Age of Climate Change

For more than 15 years, the RCP8.5 climate scenario has shaped headlines, policy decisions, financial stress tests and public understanding of climate risk. Now, the scientific community has declared it implausible. So what comes next?

This week on Cleaning Up, Michael Liebreich welcomes Professor Roger Pielke Jr. back to explore why RCP 8.5 became the dominant "business as usual" climate scenario, and what its demise means for climate research, policymaking and public debate.

They discuss the origins of the scenario, how assumptions about coal consumption drove projections beyond plausible futures and ask whether fear-based climate communication has ultimately helped or hindered public support for climate action. They tackle tipping points, extreme weather, climate policy, scientific self-correction, and the crucial question of how societies should respond to climate risk in a world that is still warming.

Until recently, Roger was a tenured professor at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He is now senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and publishes an influential Substack called The Honest Broker. He last made an appearance on Cleaning Up in June 2022. If you want to know the background to the RCP8.5 controversy you should listen to that episode, linked below.

Leadership Circle:

Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live

Links:

Van Vuuren’s 2026 paper on RCP8.5 becoming implausible: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/2627/2026/

Van Vuuren’s 2011 paper on the development of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

The Honest Broker Substack: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/

Michael's writeup on RCP8.5: https://mliebreich.substack.com/p/rcp-85-is-officially-bollox

Roger Pielke Jr’s past appearance on Cleaning Up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2LpMpkrP1w

Johan Rockström on Cleaning Up: https://youtu.be/eIJkt_mY12s

Jim Skea on Cleaning Up: https://youtu.be/oAWUdL5ZKsk

As electricity demand rises and renewable generation continues to expand, the same question keeps arising: how do we keep power systems reliable, affordable and resilient?

This week, Michael Liebreich is joined by Håkan Agnevall, CEO of Wärtsilä, to discuss the changing role of flexible generation in modern electricity systems, the growing importance of grid stability, and why balancing technologies will be critical as renewables become an ever-larger share of the global energy mix.

They explore how rapidly growing electricity demand, including from data centres, is reshaping investment decisions, why flexible gas generation may play an important transitional role, and how batteries, renewables and thermal assets can work together to build a more resilient power system.

The conversation also examines the future of shipping decarbonisation following delays to the International Maritime Organisation’s proposed global carbon-pricing mechanism, the importance of fuel flexibility for vessel owners, and how digital technologies and AI are improving efficiency across industry.

Håkan and Michael cover a wide variety of topics, including:

Why flexible generation remains essential in renewable-heavy grids

How growing electricity demand is changing energy infrastructure planning

The role of gas engines, batteries and storage in maintaining grid stability

What data centres mean for future power systems

Shipping decarbonisation and the IMO's delayed carbon-pricing vote

Fuel flexibility and efficiency in maritime transport

How industrial companies are using AI to improve performance and reliability

Energy security, competitiveness and the changing geopolitical landscape

Leadership Circle:

Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live

Links:

Wärtsilä's website: https://www.wartsila.com/

Episode 208 with Anders Lindberg, Wärtsilä's head of energy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtsCCJ4o1WA

Episode 229 with Professor Tristan Smith of UCL, on the delayed IMO agreement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdUCidkeDto

Episode 235 with Rob Dunn, inside the Start Campus data centre: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juAyLAUmU3w

In this special episode of Cleaning Up from San Francisco Climate Week, Michael Liebreich and Bryony Worthington unpack the geopolitical shocks reshaping the global energy transition.

From escalating tensions in the Gulf and their impact on oil and LNG markets, to China’s accelerating electrification revolution, the conversation explores how energy security, industrial strategy and climate ambition are colliding in real time.

Bryony and Michael debate whether the West can realistically compete with China’s manufacturing dominance, why electrification is becoming the defining energy strategy across Europe and Asia, and whether hydrogen has any meaningful role left to play. They also examine California’s energy paradox, the future of AI-driven electricity demand, and whether nuclear power can help meet the coming compute boom.

Along the way, they tackle the politics of trade, the economics of resilience, the rise of clean tech nationalism, and the uncomfortable societal questions posed by artificial intelligence and automation.

This episode covers:

The energy implications of instability in the Middle East

Why electrification is accelerating globally

China’s EV and battery dominance

The future of LNG, coal and renewables in Asia

 Why Michael thinks hydrogen is dead policy walking

AI, data centres and the coming electricity crunch

California’s clean energy transformation

Whether nuclear power can support the AI revolution

Leadership Circle:

Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live

Links:

Absolutely Electrifying - Ep158: Saul Griffith: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=238XVTF4ang

How Nvidia Made Chips 100,000x More Efficient | Ep215: Josh Parker: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0KtA9WKZ3U

The Future of Clean Tech Under Trump — Ep198: Jigar Shah: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCOaF-qQ_TU

The energy system is not about supply and exports and generation and distribution. It's about how we use energy in our daily lives and workplaces.

The so-called energy trilemma, affordability versus reliability versus environmental performance looks very theoretical in the boardrooms of an NGO or a consulting company. But it's not theoretical at all for someone struggling to run their life, do their job and pay their bills. What we need is a system focused on usage, not on supply.

Joining Michael on Cleaning Up this week is Harish Hande, a Bangalore-based social entrepreneur, co-founder and CEO of the Selco Foundation, which focuses on decentralized solar energy solutions for underserved communities.

A graduate of IIT Kharagpur with a master’s and PhD in energy engineering from the University of Massachusetts, Harish has over three decades of grassroots experience using sustainable energy to drive poverty reduction in rural India. In 2011, he received the Ramon Magsaysay Award for his efforts to make solar power accessible and affordable for the poor through innovative, livelihood‑linked energy services.

Leadership Circle:

Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live

Links:

The Selco Foundation: https://selcofoundation.org/

Impact Investing Has it Backward: https://nextbillion.net/impact-investing-backward-time-prioritize-needs-social-enterprises-not-just-investors/

How Solar is Saving 100s of Lives in Sierra Leone — Ep204: Project Bo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-5QjSfy2SM

A Life of Energy Access and Inclusion - Ep20: Richenda Van Leeuwen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tyk1xcf7nQ

What India Gets Right About The Energy Transition | Ep226: Dr Arunabha Ghosh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMrn-JewoCo

Every single scenario for the future that looks at a cleaner energy system has electrification growing to 60, 70, 80% or more, and yet we don't make rapid progress. Why?

One of the reasons we don't make progress lies in narratives and culture wars. We hear about heat pumps that don't work, we hear about electric vehicles that don't work, we hear that electrification can't work for high temperature heat and so on, and then we hear a narrative that there is a false solution that will work much better: hydrogen.  So how do we electrify things faster? By focussing on what we can do right now, commercially at scale, and removing the barriers that slow those sectors down. 

Presenting the Electrification Staircase, a tool that breaks down the “Electrify Everything” argument into what can be achieved now, what will be in the near future, and what needs more support to come into being by the middle of the century. 

This week on Cleaning Up, Michael is joined by the authors of the Electrification Staircase to explore their thinking behind it, how it can be used, and what can be done to get electrification moving even faster. 

The authors are Adrian Hiel, Director of the Electrification Alliance, Silvia Madeddu, Solutions Architect at Schneider Electric, William Drake, analyst at Liebreich Associates and Thomas Butler, associate at the Regulatory Assistance Project, as well as Michael Liebreich. 

Leadership Circle:

Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live

Links:

The Electrification Staircase: https://www.watts-next.eu/app/uploads/07b50d4f71ed1ece03c6cbac-electrification-staircase.png 

The Electrification Staircase Appendix: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qfn6xR7g7dXSZTlfkxcpOa8Pp0WKj7BW/view?usp=sharing

The Electrification Alliance: https://electrification-alliance.eu/

Regulatory Assistance Project: https://www.raponline.org/

Sylvia Madeddu’s Past appearance on Cleanig Up: https://perspectives.se.com/youtube-sustainability-business-schneider-electric/ep103-dr-silvia-madeddu-industrial-heat-is-electrifying