Columbia Energy Exchange

Seven months into the largest oil supply disruption in history, there's still no resolution in sight. This week, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US and Iranian officials held their first indirect talks since the Memorandum of Understanding collapsed in July—but neither side appears ready for concessions.
Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain contested and hard to track. A US blockade has pushed Iranian crude exports close to zero, while naval escorts and dark transits near the Omani coast have allowed a partial, volatile recovery in flows from Arab Gulf states—still well below pre-war levels. Attacks on shipping continue, and the Houthis have opened a new front against Saudi Arabia, choking flows through the Bab al-Mandab and striking key infrastructure like the East-West pipeline.
Brent crude sits at $105​ a barrel, below April's $126 peak, but that headline number masks just how tight markets really are: diesel ​i​s over $6.50 per gallon in the US, up 85% from pre-war levels​; tanker rates​ are 20 times normal; and markets are visibly scrambling for crude. Meanwhile Republican senators from US farm states are pushing for a diesel export ban, and the Trump administration is reportedly considering it over objections from members of his cabinet.
How much crude is actually flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Why is diesel the most acute pressure point in oil markets? What would a US diesel export ban mean? And why have tanker rates gone stratospheric? 
T​oday on the Iran Conflict Brief, ​D​aniel Sternoff talks with Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler. Jan has built leading energy franchises at Credit Suisse, Macquarie, and UBS, was a journalist in the 1990s, and began his career at the International Energy Agency in Paris.
Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff, Bill Loveless, and Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Dara Diamond, Doug Halsey, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Washington for a state visit with President Trump, their second face-to-face meeting this year. Energy is likely to be high on the agenda, particularly the fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 
One of the more surprising developments since Iran largely closed off the Strait of Hormuz has been how little damage it's done to China's economy. Analysts widely expected the disruption—given China's heavy reliance on Gulf crude—to hit hard. The data tells a different story. 
What happened? How much of this outcome is owed to the country's careful planning, diverse energy sourcing, or demand reduction? And what does all of this say about the ways energy security is shifting—and perhaps being redefined—in China?
Today on the show, Bill Loveless speaks with Erica Downs and Michal Meidan about how China has responded to the biggest oil shock in history, and what it reveals about the future of energy security.
Erica Downs is a senior research scholar at CGEP, where she focuses on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics. 
Michal Meidan leads China Energy Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. 
Read their post, How China Is Managing Lower Oil Imports, on the Center on Global Energy Policy's blog, Energy Explained. 
Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Dara Diamond, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

More than six months into the war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to cause turmoil in the Gulf region and global energy markets with no apparent end in sight. 
Tanker traffic through the strait has collapsed to a fraction of its pre-war baseline, and the fallout is spreading. Brent crude broke $100 a barrel for the first time since July, and US diesel prices have climbed above $6 a gallon for the first time in history.
The US Navy blockade has all but shut down Iranian oil exports, but the conflict is no longer confined to Iran and the strait. Last week, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was struck and could stay offline for weeks. Iran-aligned Houthi forces seized Yemen's Red Sea coastline. And a Panama-flagged tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil caught fire in the crossfire—a sign that oil flows well beyond Iran's borders are now at risk.
Meanwhile, President Trump continues to predict the war will end shortly after the US midterms—even as his own administration reportedly warns privately that Iran can hold out longer than that. 
So, with the conflict spreading, has this become a multi-front regional war? How much further could oil and diesel prices climb? And how does this conflict unwind and actually end?
On today's show, Jason Bordoff speaks with three scholars at the Center on Global Energy Policy: Richard Nephew, Daniel Sternoff, and Karen Young. Together, they discuss the widening war, its impacts on global energy markets, and Middle East geopolitics.

It's been a tumultuous year for Venezuela, marked by political upheaval and deadly earthquakes. Then, in late August, the Trump administration announced a deal for over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves—and a 35% stake in North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP). The move could turn a little-known private company into one of the world's largest corporate holders of oil reserves. 

But NABEP wasn't the only headline. In the same week, Chevron pledged $7 billion to double its Venezuelan production, Italian major ENI moved forward on a massive oil field agreement, and GE Vernova signed on to rehabilitate the country's crippled electric grid. All told, Venezuela signed deals covering more than 150 billion barrels of oil resources—an unprecedented scale-up for a sector starved of investment for over two decades.

Yet for all the fanfare, basic questions remain unresolved. What are the terms and legal basis for the deal? What does direct US government equity in Venezuelan oil actually mean for American energy security and gas prices at the pump? And where does this deal fit in the long energy history between the US and Venezuela—is this a genuine turning point, or just the latest swing in a cycle of investments and setbacks that hasn't delivered lasting progress for ordinary Venezuelans?

Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Luisa Palacios and Bob McNally. 

Luisa is an adjunct senior research scholar here at the center, where she also served as CGEP's head of research. Before joining CGEP, Luisa was chairwoman of Citgo Petroleum Corporation, the US refining arm of Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA. 

Bob is the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, an independent energy consulting and market advisory firm. From 2001 to 2003 he served on the White House National Economic Council as special assistant to President George W. Bush. And in 2003, he was the senior director for international energy on the National Security Council. His 2017 book, Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices, examines the history of oil price swings.

Advanced technologies, a return to domestic manufacturing, and the race to control energy production while also confronting surging demand for electricity. All of these factors mean that for the US, energy security and national security are increasingly centered on critical minerals. 
But the processing and refining of vital materials like copper, lithium, and graphite is largely done overseas, heavily concentrated in the hands of global competitors like China. This has sparked an urgent, bipartisan push to re-industrialize America and secure the supply chains necessary for everything from military defense to the AI revolution.
So can public sector funding catalyze sustainable private enterprise without over-regulating the market? How much domestic mining, processing, and recycling can the US unlock quickly and safely? And what role can emerging baseload power technologies like advanced geothermal and small modular nuclear reactors play in meeting our soaring energy needs?
Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with the Assistant Secretary of Energy Audrey Robertson, about her office's mission to restructure and secure America's energy supply chains, from mining to recycling.
Audrey leads the US Department of Energy's Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation, where she oversees one of the nation's largest energy R&D portfolios. Previously, she co-founded Franklin Mountain Energy, a private oil and gas company in the Permian Basin, where she served as CFO and executive vice president. Before that Audrey was a managing partner at Copper Trail Partners, an energy private equity platform. 
Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.