Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:48) - Setting the Scene: Current Geopolitical Climate(01:12) - Israel-Iran Tensions and MAGA Camp Dynamics(04:59) - Debating Regime Change and Airstrikes(11:04) - Historical Context: Lessons from Serbia(16:10) - Potential Scenarios for Iran's Future(27:11) - US Politics and Foreign Policy Implications(35:21) - Comparing the Iran-Iraq War to Current Conflicts(35:37) - The Dynamics of the Iran-Iraq War(37:44) - Potential Global Repercussions(39:58) - The Myth of the China Block(41:13) - The Role of the US and Its Allies(42:21) - The Impact on Global Markets(45:02) - Technological Advancements in Warfare(47:53) - The Need for a New Global Congress(59:02) - Historical Precedents for Global Cooperation(01:08:06) - The Decline of International Law(01:08:16) - Charismatic Authority in Foreign Policy(01:08:59) - Institutions vs. Concerts(01:10:01) - The Role of the United Nations(01:10:51) - The Concert of Europe Concept(01:11:14) - Challenges of Charismatic Authority(01:11:51) - Legitimacy and Spheres of Influence(01:13:55) - Historical Context and Modern Implications(01:16:17) - The Need for a New Global Order(01:21:39) - Hypothetical Scenarios and Real-World Applications(01:29:14) - Breaking News and Current Events(01:37:56) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Speculations--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapMarko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
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1:42:19
Manufactured Chaos
Marko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-driving cars.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:32) - Los Angeles in Turmoil(04:38) - Media's Role in the Crisis(10:14) - Immigration and Policy Debate(16:33) - Federal vs. State Authority(34:00) - Economic and Trade Implications(43:34) - Populism and Political Strategy(44:29) - Populist Policies and Economic Impact(46:08) - Immigration Policies and Political Shifts(47:04) - Italy's Political Landscape and Georgia Maloney(50:16) - US-China Trade Relations and Economic Strategies(52:28) - Immigration and US Demographics(01:16:41) - California Secession and US Political Polarization(01:32:48) - Future Topics--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapMarko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
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1:33:38
Maple Syrup and Soft Power
Marko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime.Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:25) - Geopolitical Power Draft Recap(04:40) - Debating the Draft Picks(06:32) - Analyzing Geopolitical Power(17:00) - Honorable Mentions and Speculative Picks(34:09) - Final Thoughts and Adjustments(36:48) - Switching Japan and Iran(37:07) - Argentina and Indonesia Reordering(37:53) - Brazil's Regional Power(39:03) - Canada's Geopolitical Position(39:17) - Mexico's Potential Power Projection(39:46) - Canada's Strengths and Weaknesses(41:37) - Comparing Canada to Other Nations(45:42) - Technological Innovation in Canada(55:36) - Geopolitical Analysis and Predictions(01:06:32) - US Debt and Fiscal Policy(01:14:30) - Trump's Fiscal Policies and Tax Cuts(01:16:00) - Medicaid and Welfare Cuts(01:17:10) - Senate's Role in Budget Approval(01:18:29) - Trump's Stance on Medicaid(01:20:54) - Bond Market and Budget Cuts(01:24:10) - Israel and Anti-Zionism Debate(01:38:58) - South Africa's Racial Tensions
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1:51:12
Our 2025 Geopolitical Power Draft
The cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy.Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(01:00) - Geopolitical Analysts and Air Travel(02:45) - US Foreign Policy and Gifts(07:43) - Middle East Developments(23:13) - Saudi Arabia's Transformation(41:44) - Geopolitical Draft Introduction(45:51) - Geopolitical Power Index and Geopolitics as an Art(47:00) - Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis in Geopolitics(47:20) - Defining Power and Influence(48:37) - Non-Linearity and Future Predictions(48:53) - Nuclear Power and Population Debates(49:07) - Critique of Demographic Obsession(51:09) - American Power and Multipolarity(54:01) - China's Position and Challenges(59:09) -European Union and Western Europe(01:04:05) - Turkey's Strategic Importance(01:08:16) - India's Potential and Challenges(01:11:56) - Russia's Geopolitical Influence(01:13:45) - South Korea's Technological Edge(01:16:31) - Brazil's Agricultural and Manufacturing Future(01:17:03) - Canada's Strategic Advantages(01:18:47) -Iran's Potential Resurgence(01:19:56) - Argentina's Reform and Innovation(01:20:48) - Singapore's Strategic Position(01:21:30) - Saudi Arabia's Regional Influence(01:22:11) - Japan's Resilience(01:22:32) - Ukraine's Future as a Garrison State(01:24:21) - Conclusion and NBA Thoughts
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1:26:47
TikTok Dictators and the End of Hegemony
This week, the cousins speed-run chaos: Houthis hitting Israel, Trump cutting side deals, and Jordan taking heat for not hosting enough sick kids from Gaza. Marko argues that the U.S. is done playing global babysitter, and that might actually be stabilizing. They dig into Israel’s delusions of American loyalty, Burkina Faso’s TikTok dictatorship, and Marko's new theory: “geopolitical tightening.” Jacob’s worried about nukes and future AI plagues, but Marko says multipolarity forces adults to act like, well, adults. Oh, and if President Traoré of Burkina Faso is listening: We accept consulting fees in gold or viral video cameos.Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Overview(01:16) - Middle East Tensions: King Abdullah, Houthis, and Trump(06:39) - Israel's Strategic Challenges(11:56) - Jordan's Geopolitical Balancing Act(22:30) - Burkina Faso's Social Media Strategy(29:13) - The President's Social Media Strategy(30:38) - Geopolitical Challenges in Burkina Faso(31:29) - The Role of Gold in Global Politics(34:10) - Global Perception of US Tariffs(36:20) - Hegemonic Stability and Global Order(44:35) - The Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Global Conflict(54:08) - China's Potential as a Global Hegemon(56:34) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.
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