Geopolitical Cousins

No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation.
Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyingly - extremely serious.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Beginning
(02:29) - Who Showed Up to the Beijing Parade & “Board of Peace”?
(04:24) - What Even Is the “Board of Peace”?
(07:32) - Iran Time!
(11:14) - Iran Capabilities & Asymmetry
(14:54) - Worst-Case Escalation
(25:36) - Trump’s “Punch-Then-Deal” Strategy
(33:06) - Did the US Miss the Protest Window?
(36:27) - So What Happens Next?
(39:26) - Why Airstrikes Became America’s Default
(40:45) - Geopolitics vs. US Domestic Politics
(42:35) - Nuclear Proliferation Returns
(48:18) - The Real Proliferation Risks
(54:20) - Clean Energy, Cartels, and Why States Control Nukes
(58:18) - Munich Security Conference Check-In
(01:06:20) - Europe’s Next Security Umbrella
(01:11:48) - Europe’s Demographics & Integration Debate
(01:15:57) - The Multi‑Ethnic Europe That Might Return
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:

The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Current Events
(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis
(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict
(38:45) - Germany's Push for a Two-Speed Europe
(49:04) - The Strategic Importance of Spain
(49:42) - Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe
(53:05) - Hungary and Serbia's Political Dynamics
(55:04) - Debunking Demographic Myths
(01:01:14) - The Decline of the United Nations
(01:07:29) - Japan's Political and Economic Future
(01:26:22) - The Role of the Federal Reserve
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview
(01:08) - Current Global Events and Updates
(01:55) - Mark Carney's Geopolitical Moves
(03:09) - Analysis of Carney's Speech at Davos
(03:58) - Comparative Historical Speeches
(04:57) - Canada's Strategic Position and Response
(07:09) - Realpolitik and Global Power Dynamics
(08:56) - Implications for Future Geopolitical Strategies
(16:22) - The Role of Morality in International Relations
(29:10) - Underdogs and National Struggles
(34:23) - Pragmatic Foreign Policy Approaches
(35:23) - The Dangers of Morality in Foreign Policy
(36:17) - Critique of Mark Carney's Speech
(38:45) - Canada's Bold Moves Against Trump
(49:29) - The Iran Situation and Oil Prices
(53:33) - Domestic Issues: Minnesota and ICE
(01:07:14) - Grizzly History and Modern Comparisons
(01:07:50) - Personal Experiences and Political Commentary
(01:09:04) - Republican Backlash and Political Dynamics
(01:15:25) - Midwest Musings and Listener Feedback
(01:19:32) - China's Internal Dynamics and Geopolitical Risks
(01:26:05) - Taiwan Tensions and Future Predictions
(01:33:34) - Closing Thoughts and Future Plans
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin:

A chill manifesto against lazy thinking. A low-key diatribe about our preconceptions. Marko and Jacob take a second, amidst all the chaos of January 2026, to tear into the core failure of most geopolitical analysis - Bias. Real analysis means stripping away emotion, nationalism, and ego, then stress-testing your views until they break. From Trump and Canada to Russia, markets, and personal discipline, the point is simple: if you can’t argue the other side convincingly, you’re not an analyst—you’re a fan. --
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Today's word is....
(00:39) - Listener Feedback and Basketball Metaphors
(03:18) - Trump's Tariff Threats and Greenland
(05:25) - Canada's Strategic Partnership with China
(19:08) - Geopolitical Analysis and Bias
(43:26) - Dealing with Hate Mail and Identity
(43:55) - The Problem with Being Right
(44:09) - Kobe Bryant's Shot Chart and Analysis Integrity
(44:57) - Buddhism and Nihilism in Analysis
(45:37) - Finance and Objectivity
(47:29) - Bias in Finance and Politics
(52:12) - Physical Fitness and Analysis
(01:01:03) - Frameworks and Methodologies
(01:12:15) - Humor and Passion in Analysis
(01:15:02) - Final Thoughts on Being an Analyst
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro