Locked On Big 12 | Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast

The 2026 NIL landscape has shifted the balance of power in the Big 12, as Oklahoma State and West Virginia have executed a massive financial pivots to leapfrog established spenders like Texas Tech and BYU. While the Red Raiders and Cougars dominated the early NIL era, the "Pokes" and "Mountaineers" have recently tapped into deep-pocketed alumni networks to create a new tier of spending.

Oklahoma State has signaled its "all-in" mentality with an estimated $55 million in collective NIL spending for 2026. This surge was catalyzed by a culture shift in Stillwater; after Mike Gundy famously took a $1 million pay cut to seed NIL funds, the "Pokes with a Purpose" collective saw record-breaking donor participation. This war chest was the primary engine behind the shocking commitment of Audi Crooks, who reportedly commanded a package exceeding $500,000—a figure previously unheard of for a single women’s basketball transfer at OSU.

 

 

Similarly, West Virginia has utilized the "Country Roads Trust" to reach an $8–$9 million threshold for basketball alone, placing them in the nation's top tier. This investment allowed the Mountaineers to secure elite talent like Sam Leavitt ($4M valuation) and compete directly with Blue Bloods in the portal. By contrast, while Texas Tech and BYU remain "elite" spenders with healthy infrastructures, their growth has stabilized. Oklahoma State and WVU have entered a "hyper-growth" phase, realizing that in the 2026 conference hierarchy, being "flush with cash" is the only way to prevent being left behind in the next round of realignment.

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The collapse of the Pac-12—a century-old institution often dubbed the "Conference of Champions"—was not the result of a single event, but rather a decade-long accumulation of strategic hubris and financial miscalculation. While the departure of USC and UCLA in 2022 was the killing blow, the foundation had been crumbling for years under a leadership structure that consistently misread the shifting landscape of sports media.

 

 

The root of the failure traces back to the Larry Scott era, specifically the decision to launch the Pac-12 Network as a fully independent entity. Unlike the Big Ten or SEC networks, which partnered with giants like Fox or ESPN to ensure widespread distribution, the Pac-12 went it alone. This resulted in years of poor carriage, invisible games, and a revenue gap that saw Pac-12 schools falling $10–$20 million behind their peers annually. This financial stagnation left the conference vulnerable when the "Super Conference" era arrived.

When USC and UCLA bolted for the Big Ten, the conference’s value plummeted. Commissioner George Kliavkoff then committed a fatal error in negotiation: overplaying his hand. Reports indicate that ESPN offered a deal worth roughly $30 million per school in 2022. The Pac-12 leadership, convinced their brand was worth more, countered with a staggering $50 million. ESPN walked away, and the market subsequently cooled.

The final "Radioactive" moment occurred in August 2023, when Kliavkoff presented a primary streaming-only deal with Apple. The deal offered low guarantees and was heavily dependent on subscription milestones—a gamble the remaining schools weren't willing to take. Within 24 hours, the "Four Corners" schools (Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado) fled to the Big 12, while Oregon and Washington joined the Big Ten. Left with only two members, a 108-year-old legacy ended in a matter of days, serving as a permanent warning that in modern college sports, visibility and guaranteed revenue are the only true currencies.

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The persistent revenue gap between the "Power Two" (SEC and Big Ten) and the rest of college athletics has created a volatile environment where even the Big 12’s strongest brands, like Texas Tech, must remain strategically agile. As of April 21, 2026, the financial disparity is stark: Big Ten and SEC schools are projected to receive nearly 60% of the $1.3 billion annual CFP payout beginning next season. For a program like Texas Tech, which is currently coming off a Big 12 Championship and a College Football Playoff berth, the "move up" is no longer about seeking validation—it’s about securing the capital necessary to sustain elite-level recruiting and NIL infrastructure.

Texas Tech’s path upward is paved by its recent dominance and "sleeping giant" market potential. By winning at a high level and securing top-five national recruiting classes, Joey McGuire has turned Lubbock into a destination that the SEC or Big Ten can no longer ignore based on geography alone. For these "Super Conferences," an ideal expansion target offers a combination of a massive, rabid fanbase and a high-functioning athletic department. Tech’s recent $242 million investment in south end zone and training facilities provides the "professional-grade" optics required for a seat at the big table.

Other Big 12 brands, such as Arizona and Utah, could look to move by leveraging their basketball prestige or unique Western markets to fill "holes" in the Big Ten’s coastal footprint. However, the most likely scenario involves the Big 12 positioning itself as a "Super Conference" of its own. Rumors of a Big 12-ACC merger suggest a defensive maneuver where the "Middle Two" combine to control 50% of the NCAA Tournament's value, creating a third financial pillar that prevents poaching and keeps brands like Texas Tech at the forefront of the national conversation.

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The prospect of AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson returning to the Big 12 for their sophomore seasons has shifted from a desperate fan theory into a legitimate financial conversation. As the 2026 NBA Draft cycle intensifies, the "NIL factor" is narrowing the gap between the NBA rookie wage scale and the massive retention packages being assembled in Provo and Lawrence.

At BYU, the "Dybantsa Watch" reached a fever pitch following his 35-point explosion in the NCAA Tournament. While the 6-foot-9 wing is a consensus top-two pick, his recent interviews have sent shockwaves through the industry by suggesting he is genuinely weighing a return. With a current NIL valuation between $7 million and $10 million—bolstered by major partners like Nike and Red Bull—Dybantsa is already earning at a professional level. For a No. 1 pick, the first-year NBA salary hovers around $14.5 million; when taxes and agent fees are factored in, the financial "sacrifice" of staying at BYU for a legacy-defining Final Four run is smaller than ever before.

 

 

Meanwhile, at Kansas, Darryn Peterson has remained inconspicuously quiet regarding his draft status. Despite being a projected lottery pick, Peterson’s freshman year was plagued by nagging injuries. Rumors suggest that Bill Self and the Kansas collective are pitching a "reclamation" year—a healthy sophomore season where Peterson can prove his durability and lock in the No. 1 overall spot for 2027. If Peterson opts to "run it back" alongside a healthy Jayhawk core, it would represent the biggest recruiting coup of the NIL era. In the new Big 12, the choice is no longer just "pro vs. college," but rather "NBA rookie vs. college superstar," and for the first time, the money is making it a fair fight.

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The buzz surrounding Texas Tech’s 2026 spring camp isn't just standard offseason optimism; it is the sound of a program that has officially weaponized the transfer portal to complement a foundational roster. Following a 2025 season that saw the Red Raiders capture a Big 12 title, Joey McGuire has managed to elevate the floor of the program through sheer depth. With 23 players on the roster who have started at the FBS level—a stat that reportedly leads the country—the "good on good" periods in practice have resembled mid-season conference battles rather than typical spring walk-throughs.

The center of this "elite" transformation is quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The Cincinnati transfer has made an immediate impact, capping off the April 17 spring scrimmage with four touchdown passes, including a dynamic eight-yard strike to Micah Hudson on the final play. Sorsby’s arrival has provided a veteran steadying hand to Mack Leftwich’s offense, allowing the staff to rotate a deep stable of receivers like Coy Eakin, Jalen Jones, and the explosive Donte Lee Jr. without a drop-off in production.

 

 

Defensively, the unit is "flying around" with a violent consistency. All-American defensive lineman A.J. Holmes Jr. remains the anchor, but the emergence of edge threats like Adam Trick—projected for double-digit sacks—suggests a pass rush that could be the league's most disruptive. Combined with the veteran leadership of linebacker Ben Roberts, the Red Raiders aren't just practicing to get better; they are practicing like a team that expects to be the hunted in the new Big 12. In Lubbock, the narrative has shifted from "building" to "reloading."

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