Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Bitcoin holds around ~$90K as Brady and John frame the current range as a “higher floor” era with potential upside catalysts still intact“Healthy hopium” segment compares Bitcoin adoption to the internet’s S-curve and revisits how skeptics routinely dismiss exponential technologiesDiscussion of long-horizon Bitcoin returns using a “wealth table” framing: short-term noise, long-term trend clarityLynn Alden’s view: recent selloff lows may hold as liquidity conditions improve and excess “Bitcoin treasury company” activity gets washed outETF adoption story accelerates: Morgan Stanley launches branded Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, notably skipping EthereumBank of America/Merrill opens advisor access to multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs with a framed 1–4% allocation for suitable clientsETF flows remain resilient: outflows are modest relative to the drawdown, suggesting a stickier, longer-term holder baseMacro/politics: Supreme Court tariff case is approaching a decision, with markets likely reacting in a messy, sector-specific way rather than a clean “tariffs on/off” binaryHousing policy: Trump floats MBS buying to compress mortgage spreads and proposes restricting institutional purchases of single-family homes, with questions on feasibility and real impactDefense policy whiplash: conflicting announcements trigger sharp moves in defense stocks, highlighting policy-driven volatility risk Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

The group frames 2025 as a “crab market” year that forced a psychological reset: ETFs, institutional interest, and political tailwinds can coexist with long sideways price actionBrandon’s Bitcoin moment of 2025 is “Bitcoin becoming boring,” arguing that social and political resistance has faded, with zero “Bitcoin obituaries” as a symbolic indicatorJohn’s Bitcoin moment of 2025 is the US Bitcoin strategic reserve executive action as a long-arc legitimacy milestone, even if it didn’t catalyze price immediatelyOverhyped 2025 narratives include the strategic reserve as a near-term price catalyst, DOGE-style government “waste cleanup,” and the idea that “hundreds of MicroStrategy clones” would rapidly scaleQuietly important 2025 developments include older coins distributing to new holders, steady growth in non-leveraged corporate treasury adoption, and “sticky” wealth-platform channel dynamics (Vanguard and broader advisory adoption)Cultural moments highlighted include “Paper Bitcoin Summer” and the “Great Creatine Awakening,” with a forecast that “four-year cycle is dead” memes will dominate once a new all-time high arrives“Bitcoin-adjacent circus” talk shifts to crypto-friendly legislative/regulatory theatrics and a 2026 concern: prediction markets and “trade everything” pushing 24/7 speculation into equities and daily lifeThe most embarrassing fiat moments center on obvious government fraud and the contradictions of central banking narratives (including officials critiquing “intrinsic value” while managing fiat debasement) and symbolic milestones like phasing out the penny“Main character” is debated: the group leans toward the idea that leaderlessness is a feature, but names surface including Larry Fink as the high-impact mainstream convert, with long-odds speculation about future political and tech megaphone figures Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

Brady and John open by owning missed 2025 price targets, framing the year as a sideways-to-down “crab market” around the high-$80KsThey unpack why “Bitcoin clicking” for the world happens far slower than new believers expect, even with ETFs and a pro-Bitcoin political backdropThe show marks the HODL meme’s origin (GameKyuubi’s “I AM HODLING” post) and uses it to reinforce long-horizon discipline BitcoinTalk+1They revisit Michael Saylor’s 2013 “Bitcoin days are numbered” tweet as a case study in changing your mind (commonly dated Dec 19, 2013) CryptoPotatoMacro recap includes a cooler-than-expected CPI print (with caveats about data quality) and what it could mean for Fed cuts and liquidityFiscal commentary highlights “victory laps” over still-massive deficits and why the debt train likely only slows, not stopsThey critique the idea of pushing 100% stock ownership as a policy goal, arguing it structurally advantages existing asset holders via compoundingA Jeff Gundlach clip anchors the “patience is alpha” idea: long-horizon winners often look wrong early, forcing managers to churn BitcoinTalkThey compare gold’s strong year to Bitcoin’s lag, noting ETF flows (IBIT) remain heavy despite negative YTD performance and debating “sell vs buy” interpretationsQuick hits include an options-market “covered call yield” theory for capped rallies, and an update on Samourai Wallet clemency chatter as a privacy battleground Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

Bitcoin chops around ~$90k after a brief move toward ~$94k, highlighting a “flat net” year vs late-2024 levelsBrady revisits a long-running thesis: institutions, corporates, and nation-states may be dampening the classic four-year boom/bust cycleMatthew Sigel (via Bernstein) is cited arguing for an elongated cycle, limited ETF outflows during a ~30% correction, and higher long-range price targetsThe show contrasts Bitcoin and gold narratives, using a long-cycle framework to discuss “debasement trade” environments and why hard assets can rotate vs equitiesThe Fed’s latest moves are framed as balance-sheet expansion via “reserve management purchases” of T-bills—QE-by-another-name and “money printing,” even if not labeled QEA Supreme Court case is discussed regarding presidential removal authority of federal officials, and why the Fed is viewed as a politically sensitive “special case”Michael Saylor posts a cryptic “guess the bank” photo (identified by viewers as JPMorgan HQ), fueling speculation about warming big-bank relationshipsBitGo receives conditional OCC approval to convert to a national trust bank, emphasizing 100% reserves and nationwide digital-asset custody authorityDo Kwon is sentenced (15 years) for the Terra/Luna collapse; the hosts discuss “orange-washing” and how Bitcoin branding can be used to legitimize scams podscan_TQm6EBLYhPKvPQVIQoum6dy9GaD2UiYASatoshi’s final public post anniversary is noted as a core “feature” of Bitcoin—no founder, no leader, no centralized rule-changes—followed by a Swan product and services overview Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

Contrast between today’s macro backdrop and the 2021 Bitcoin peak, with tighter liquidity, higher rates, and far stronger structural support for BitcoinCory’s base case: no classic 80% “crypto winter” drawdowns anymore and a strong chance of new all-time highs in 2026John’s “yearly lows” chart framing: rising annual Bitcoin floors as proof of real accumulation and diminishing panic sellingLarry Fink, Harvard, sovereign wealth funds, and major banks (BofA, Vanguard, Schwab, Citi) as long-term Bitcoin buyers, not momentum touristsDiscussion of CFTC-approved spot Bitcoin trading on designated contract markets as another on-ramp for pensions and endowmentsBig critique of prediction markets and “scambling” (scam + gambling) as an extractive, nihilistic, fiat-era attempt to financialize everythingCory and John argue that crypto casinos, meme coins, and prediction markets are a giant gambling funnel that ultimately pushes people toward Bitcoin’s seriousnessBitcoin and energy: riffing on Elon Musk and Jensen Huang’s comments about Bitcoin turning stranded or excess energy into a universal monetary batteryMicroStrategy’s new USD reserve is framed as a cosmetics move to soothe institutions and make their Stretch preferreds more attractive, not a change in core strategyCory pushes back on “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” de-banking narratives, distinguishing between true systemic exclusion and individual risky accounts being dropped Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.