Wall Street Wildlife Investing Podcast

Badger calls in from Crete after a week in which he trimmed $CRWD to 3% of his retirement portfolio and nearly sold $NU on a Monzo rumor. Monkey read a bear essay on AI spending and started talking himself out of $CIFR. The top 20 stocks were 38% of the S&P 500 at the dot-com peak and are over 50% now; Badger's argument, after ten bull and bear cycles, is that it may not matter which one we're in. With three weeks left in year three of King of the Jungle, the co-hosts are within 2% of each other (and kicking the market's butt).
🎓 Bill Gates on AI tutoring vs Monkey's classroom, where students outsource the struggle
📉 A bear essay on AI spend vs AI revenue, and Badger's case for hardware over the labs
🥧 S&P 500 concentration: top 20 were 38% of the index at the dot-com peak, over 50% now
📈 Ten bull and bear cycles, and why you should stay in the game regardless
🦍 Monkey's four AI data-center stocks, $IREN, $DGXX, $CIFR and $SLNH - which one is he selling?
🛑 $NU: the Monzo rumor, the sell Badger skipped, and why you have more time than you think
🛡️ $CRWD at $275B: why Badger trimmed
🤝 You owe it to your friends to teach them the power of long-term investing

SEGMENTS
00:00 Cold open and intro
02:29 Bill Gates on AI and education vs Monkey's classroom
07:27 The bear essay, half one: AI spend vs AI revenue
09:59 Luke's pushback: the labs have no moat, the hardware does
11:28 The bear essay, half two: 2008-style debt
15:03 S&P 500 concentration: top 20 at the dot-com peak vs now
17:08 Monkey's own exposure: $IREN, Anthropic and the domino risk
19:17 The S&P top 10 is one correlated trade
22:03 Ten bull and bear cycles: why you stay in the game regardless
24:00 Monkey's conundrum: four AI data-center stocks, sell $CIFR?
28:54 The laziness factor and number one vs number two
32:50 Where the money goes, and Monkey talks himself into selling
36:15 $NU: the Monzo rumor and the impulse sell Badger skipped
39:48 $CRWD: five years in, a $275B name, trimmed to 3%
44:07 Selling winners: earnings-call hours as goodwill
45:50 Bull or bear? Maybe it doesn't matter
47:57 King of the Jungle year four approaches
49:45 $ASTS: the one stock both portfolios share
53:09 Luke's brother launches a 120-day investing initiative for friends
55:26 The mission statement: point a friend to the show
56:41 Fiscal.ai and sign-off

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If you want to see our furry faces, this podcast is also available on YouTube at ⁠youtube.com/@WallStreetWildlife?sub_confirmation=1⁠
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SUPPORT THE SHOW AND BECOME A PATREON:
wallstreetwildlife.com
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Follow us at:
⁠⁠x.com/7LukeHallard
⁠x.com/7FlyingPlatypus
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Fiscal.AI is the Complete Stock Research Platform for fundamental investors. With its beautiful design and institutional-quality data, Fiscal AI is incredibly powerful and easy to use.
Get 15% off any premium plan with:
fiscal.ai/wildlife
**********
Monkey’s “Zen, Nietzsche, How to Live” Substack:
firephilosophy.substack.com
**********
To use the same portfolio tracking tool as Luke, check-out:
portseido.com/?fpr=lukehallard
**********
Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation
**********
Fed up with the stock market giving you a hard time?
- Invest like seasoned pros with over 40 years in the game
- Discover the world's leading companies
- Sharpen your best investing practices and ditch the worst
- Learn how to start investing
- Essential investing principles to boost your returns

Monkey combs through the losers at the back of his King of the Jungle portfolio and asks whether you should add on big drops. He never added to $MRLN, now down close to 80%, and says that was right; but holding back on Chainlink cost him a double. Badger reviews Thomas Chua's The Lunch Break Investor, and reflects on his own $NIKE misstep. After Monkey's $NKTR update on the Lilly verdict, Badger stress-tests his own high-conviction $AMZN position against the capex bill and the rise of shopping agents.
🐒 Monkey bought $MRLN at about $8, already 50% off the top, and never added as it kept falling
🔗 Chainlink gave him a technical buy signal in early September; he passed and $LINK doubled
🧬 $NKTR won $90m from Lilly at trial, a tenth of the $1bn some investors had hoped for. Monkey says about $1bn in cash lasts to mid-2028, and he puts the buyout odds above 50%
🎋 The Lunch Break Investor says wealth compounds like bamboo (a simile, Monkey points out)
👟 Luke owns his $NIKE call: the direct-to-consumer pivot handed shelf space to rival brands
📦 On $AMZN, ads topped $76bn over the last 12 months and AWS brought in $148bn at a 39% margin
🤖 Luke's worry: shopping agents like $META's Muse won't be lured by Amazon's ads

SOURCES
The Lunch Break Investor: https://steadycompounding.com/the-lunch-break-investor/
Best Stock Market Podcasts For Beginners (we're number nine!): https://podcast.feedspot.com/stock_market_podcasts_for_beginners/

SEGMENTS
00:00 Cold open
00:32 Intro: big drops and Nektar from Monkey, Amazon from Badger
01:06 WSOP Malta: the poker Badger never played
04:12 Big drops: why Monkey didn't average down
06:11 $MRLN: correct not to add
09:43 Chainlink: a mistake not to add
15:00 Live stablecoin question and the November 10x revisit
20:12 $PRCT and $OPEN: same rule, the first bite is enough
21:20 The Lunch Break Investor: compounding like bamboo
27:00 Brand as a verb, and Badger's Nike confession
33:19 Spawners vs diworsifiers: AWS and the Fire Phone
37:26 Should you buy $NKTR? The update after the Lilly verdict
43:49 $NKTR Q&A: adding, and biotech buyout premiums
48:20 Should you buy $AMZN? Two businesses under one roof
52:11 Capex eats free cash flow again, and the Anthropic bet
56:01 Agentic commerce: Meta's Muse and Amazon's ad business
01:00:29 Monkey shares the capex worry; why Google's first-party data is different
01:07:25 Left field: Meta, $ASTS, Starship and Monkey's big call
01:12:07 Fiscal.ai thanks and sign-off

**********
If you want to see our furry faces, this podcast is also available on YouTube at ⁠youtube.com/@WallStreetWildlife?sub_confirmation=1⁠
**********
SUPPORT THE SHOW AND BECOME A PATREON:
wallstreetwildlife.com
**********
Follow us at:
⁠⁠x.com/7LukeHallard
⁠x.com/7FlyingPlatypus
**********
Fiscal.AI is the Complete Stock Research Platform for fundamental investors. With its beautiful design and institutional-quality data, Fiscal AI is incredibly powerful and easy to use.
Get 15% off any premium plan with:
fiscal.ai/wildlife
**********
Monkey’s “Zen, Nietzsche, How to Live” Substack:
firephilosophy.substack.com
**********
To use the same portfolio tracking tool as Luke, check-out:
portseido.com/?fpr=lukehallard
**********
Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation
**********
Fed up with the stock market giving you a hard time?
- Invest like seasoned pros with over 40 years in the game
- Discover the world's leading companies
- Sharpen your best investing practices and ditch the worst
- Learn how to start investing
- Essential investing principles to boost your returns

Krzysztof pitches Compass Pathways: both phase 3 trials of its pharmaceutical psilocybin are already positive, approval looks likely in early 2027, and the company holds 400-plus million in cash against about 40 million a quarter of burn, which by his math is ten quarters of runway. Stanford's Kevin Mak took a position, and Krzysztof walks through Mak's seven structural reasons the stock hasn't rerated. Luke explains gilt laddering as the cash sleeve of a portfolio, which turns into an argument about whether the US can grow its way out of $40 trillion of debt with the 30-year over 5%, and he names HSBC for fumbling his CyberArk payout nearly a year after Palo Alto closed the deal. Voting is open on the September community portfolio: Kraken Robotics, Rocket Lab and Shopify.

🍄 Should you buy $CMPS? The drug works, both phase 3 trials are positive, and the one grey area is whether insurers pay for a dose that needs six-plus hours of clinician supervision
🧠 Kevin Mak's seven reasons: a UK ADR no US index owns, thin institutions, career risk for any analyst who says "buy the magic mushroom stock", no valuation framework, M&A unpriced. A $2 billion company sitting at $15 resistance off a low of $2; Mak's number if you run it is about $45 a share
🗳️ September community portfolio: Kraken Robotics, $RKLB and $SHOP, voting is open at wallstreetwildlife.com
🚀 Luke's Rocket Lab average buy was $3-something; it got as high as $130 and is a $60-something stock now
🛍️ Paul thought $SHOP was overvalued until he opened his own storefront on it; Luke says Shopify got him across the line into early retirement
🧘 Beginner's mind: look at a stock you think you already know with fresh eyes
💷 Gilts in a minute: short-dated UK government bonds, refreshed every six months, as the cash you never leave idle
🇺🇸 The 30-year over 5% on $40 trillion of debt: growth has to beat the interest bill, which is why Krzysztof holds Bitcoin (and the crypto that is not a crypto that shall not be mentioned)
🏦 HSBC vs Trading 212 on the CyberArk acquisition: one converted in a day, one buried itself in bureaucracy and broken processes. Why you should have more than one broker once the numbers get big
💻 Luke is officially addicted to vibe coding

SOURCES:
Luke's Gilt webinar: https://youtu.be/HVVj0u1O6ms
Jared Isaacman (NASA): https://youtu.be/VTF6p0U98ek?si=DgSH8GOAA_MuM0jb

SEGMENTS:
00:00 Cold open
00:56 Jury Duty, the Amazon show: "a bit mid" or the kindest thing on TV?
06:03 Real jury duty, Bezos and Saylor on one panel, and AI judges
08:02 Luke is officially addicted to vibe coding
12:07 Livestream Monday, Patreon welcomes
14:21 A dark thought about capitalism: why are you investing, and what is enough?
19:13 What the community portfolio is, and why you should get involved
20:46 September pitches: Kraken Robotics $PNG, $RKLB and $SHOP, and beginner's mind
27:02 Fiscal.ai: fiscal.ai/wildlife, first week of Pro free, 15% off
28:03 Krzysztof already owns $RKLB, and the option that soured him
28:52 Isaacman at All-In: a moon base as the staging post to Mars
31:36 Paul's Shopify message: a merchant's beginner's mind
33:28 Should you buy $CMPS? The drug works, the cash runs ten quarters
40:31 Kevin Mak's seven structural reasons, the chart, and $45
44:25 Biotech corner: "I am a disco", Nektar, Relay, TransMedics
48:01 Cash doesn't have to sit idle: gilts and the gilt ladder
52:13 The 30-year over 5% on $40 trillion of debt: growth, Bitcoin, $ASST
57:59 Chainlink: the cryptocurrency that isn't a cryptocurrency
59:09 CyberArk deal: HSBC vs Trading 212, and why your broker matters
01:03:46 Wrap
Fiscal.AI is the Complete Stock Research Platform for fundamental investors. Get 15% off any premium plan with:
fiscal.ai/wildlife

Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation

Episode 150 is the first Wall Street Wildlife recorded live in front of the Patreon community, questions from the chat included. Monkey makes the case for Oddity Tech after the post-earnings pop, the King of the Jungle scoreboard turns into a hare-versus-tortoise argument, and we spend half an hour on the 3,800 words Dario Amodei wrote asking the whole AI industry to slow down.🐢 King of the Jungle year three, six weeks to go: year one Badger won, year two Monkey ripped 380% (fourteen times the market) while Badger delivered 93%. If you're an investor, who would you rather be? The answer isn't obvious🧘 "It doesn't matter how Zen you are." Monkey on what a top holding down 70-something percent actually feels like, and why a 20-year-old should still swing big💸 All in on high-growth stocks while the US debt snowballs? Bitcoin, Chainlink, $ASST, and why diversification and hedging are two different things⚡ Luke's growth-plus-income "hedge": Iberdrola, Clearway, Brookfield Renewable and Constellation, half a percent each, and who buys their power💄 Should you buy $ODD? Beat guidance 11 quarters running, met one algorithm change, fell from $77 to under $10, and Monkey averaged in at $12. Two of three brands growing fast, buybacks with the excess cash, longevity products promised for 2027🤖 AI doomsday: the tweet that said insiders see a 10%+ chance AI kills us all within 10 years, and why OpenAI, Anthropic and Musk all lined up behind it the same week🏦 Dario's "embedded evaluator", explained by a banker who lived under one at HSBC. Then the China problem, Oppenheimer's non-zero chance, and the Elizabeth Holmes face-to-face documentarySEGMENTS00:00 Cold open00:37 Live for the first time01:40 Welcome to the Deep Investing Jungle03:44 Jose Luis's question: a first investing book for a 20-year-old07:47 Richer, Wiser, Happier and the WSW book club12:42 King of the Jungle, six weeks from the end of year three13:16 The all-time scoreboard: hare versus tortoise21:01 "It doesn't matter how Zen you are": living with a 70% drawdown22:55 Stephen's question: all in on high growth in a debt spiral?29:12 The other quadrant of options: hedges are insurance32:57 Luke's growth-and-income hedge: $IBE $CWEN $BEPC $CEG35:26 Diversification is not hedging40:17 Should you buy $ODD? Oddity Tech earnings42:58 The Fiscal.ai chart: revenue, guidance, the algorithm change45:03 Revenue by brand: Il Makiage, SpoiledChild, Methodiq46:56 Monkey's position, and the TLDR48:29 Seeking Alpha, Alpha Picks, and selling Badger on makeup54:29 Headline topic: AI doomsday55:49 The tweet: a 10% chance AI kills everyone within 3 to 10 years58:08 Sincere or psyop? The game theory of Dario's 3,800 words01:03:07 Monkey the virologist: the bioterror path01:06:33 How do you IPO while saying your product might kill everyone?01:09:04 The embedded evaluator: what HSBC's monitor was actually like01:14:52 Elizabeth Holmes, Nathan Fielder, and the limits of sincerity01:17:09 Dario's three levels, taken at face value01:22:00 Fiscal.ai and sign-off**********SUPPORT THE SHOW AND BECOME A PATREON:wallstreetwildlife.com**********Follow us at:⁠⁠x.com/7LukeHallard⁠x.com/7FlyingPlatypus**********Fiscal.AI is the Complete Stock Research Platform for fundamental investors. With its beautiful design and institutional-quality data, Fiscal AI is incredibly powerful and easy to use.Get 15% off any premium plan with:fiscal.ai/wildlife**********Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation**********Fed up with the stock market giving you a hard time?- Invest like seasoned pros with over 40 years in the game- Discover the world's leading companies- Sharpen your best investing practices and ditch the worst- Learn how to start investing- Essential investing principles to boost your returns

Monkey is surrounded by Tesla robotaxis in Austin and the rides are cheaper than Uber. Luke has three years of hindsight on the India thesis: the macro delivered, the trade didn't. In between, UiPath beat earnings and fell 17%, and Monkey explains why he sold his January call the week before.
🚕 Tesla robotaxis are undercutting $UBER on price. Pelosi and Trump are both buying the stock anyway
🏛️ Uber's defence is Congress: lobbying for a minimum share of human-driven rides
🤖 $PATH went from scripted bots to Maestro: agents decide, robots execute, humans approve
📉 Stock-based comp cut from 43% of revenue to 11%. Then a beat, a flat guide, and a 17% drop
🎯 "Take off the long-term investor hat, put on the trader's hat": the anchored VWAP line and the $15 call sold for a 65% gain
😴 "I was thinking of getting back in, but I couldn't sleep well." Luke: UiPath "niched and probably dead"
🇮🇳 S&P 500 up 85% since the May 2023 India episodes. $NDIA up 27%. $IIND up 17%
💱 The rupee loop: AI shrinks India's $200bn services exports, the currency slides, foreign returns evaporate
🌾 Wendell Berry's death, a life of depth versus a life of efficiency, and his nine rules for a new tool
SEGMENTS00:00 Cold open00:41 Intro05:12 Tesla robotaxis vs $UBER, Pelosi and Trump buying, lobbying Congress16:07 Wendell Berry: depth vs efficiency, the nine rules, protecting time from technology35:40 A live show for Patreons?37:20 $PATH: from robotic process automation to Maestro41:31 The Fiscal.ai chart: ARR up, stock-based comp down45:03 Should you buy UiPath? The trader's hat, the anchored VWAP line, selling the call58:22 India revisited: the 2023 thesis, three years on01:01:37 India vs the S&P 500 chart01:04:44 The rupee loop and the AI threat to services exports01:12:26 "Update our mental models of what counts as safe in 2026"01:13:56 Hare and tortoise: next week's King of the Jungle check-in01:15:01 Close**********
If you want to see our furry faces, this podcast is also available on YouTube at ⁠youtube.com/@WallStreetWildlife?sub_confirmation=1⁠
**********
SUPPORT THE SHOW AND BECOME A PATREON:
wallstreetwildlife.com
**********
Follow us at:
⁠⁠x.com/7LukeHallard
⁠x.com/7FlyingPlatypus
**********
Fiscal.AI is the Complete Stock Research Platform for fundamental investors. With its beautiful design and institutional-quality data, Fiscal AI is incredibly powerful and easy to use.
Get 15% off any premium plan with:
fiscal.ai/wildlife
**********
Monkey’s “Zen, Nietzsche, How to Live” Substack:
firephilosophy.substack.com
**********
To use the same portfolio tracking tool as Luke, check-out:
portseido.com/?fpr=lukehallard
**********
Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation
**********
Fed up with the stock market giving you a hard time?
- Invest like seasoned pros with over 40 years in the game
- Discover the world's leading companies
- Sharpen your best investing practices and ditch the worst
- Learn how to start investing
- Essential investing principles to boost your returns

KEYWORDS: UiPath, PATH stock, UiPath earnings, Maestro, robotic process automation, AI agents, Uber, UBER stock, Tesla robotaxi, Austin robotaxi, Waymo, Wayve, Nancy Pelosi stock tracker, India investing, NDIA, IIND, Nifty, rupee, India IT services, TCS, Wendell Berry, investing podcast, stock analysis, Wall Street Wildlife, anchored VWAP, selling covered calls, King of the Jungle portfolio