Global Research Unlocked

• Managed care suffering but eventual recovery likely

  Still managing to add value for patients and payor While US markets make new highs, the S&P managed care index is half the level it was a year ago. We talk to Kevin Fischbeck about what's driven the substantial weakness and whether deterioration in medical loss ratios (MLR) is temporary or something that will last and prevent these companies from recapturing past margins. Kevin also discusses the different markets served by managed care, from commercial to Medicare Advantage to Medicaid and how profitability challenges are likely to last longer for some of these markets than for others. But he also addresses how managed care adds value to each of these settings, delivering care more effectively and cheaply than the alternatives. He notes that vertical integration is still part of the strategy at some managed care companies, and something that can still help to better align incentives, but that it's been overshadowed by challenges faced elsewhere in the business. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• Yields should fall with a more dovish Fed but other levers needed to boost housing

  10Y yields should fall if Fed more dovish than expected Leading up to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market has priced in a high likelihood of a 25bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. The prospect of rate cuts has helped to lift homebuilding stocks and the group is up 16% since the end of June. But the 10Y Treasury yield is more relevant for homebuyers taking out fixed-rate or even adjustable-rate mortgages. So a key question is how Fed cuts, which should come--it's just a question of when--may impact long rates. And if rate cuts do result in lower 10Y Treasury yields, what does it mean for affordability. Mark Cabana believes that a very dovish Fed, even amidst a backdrop of higher than desired inflation, could still manage to push long rates lower. Rafe Jadrosich talks about affordability and regional housing dynamics, given that supply is above 2019 levels in Florida and Texas but well below levels from six years ago in the Northeast and Midwest.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

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• Give me value or give me vibes: segments of restaurant industry still special

  Coffee away from home enjoying demographic tailwind Restaurants have faced some of the same sales challenges experienced elsewhere in the economy as chains more reliant on lower income consumers have felt more pressure than those with a higher income skew. Sara Senatore discusses the opportunity that inflation and a more selective consumer have created for fast casual and even casual dining. But dining preference shifts mean that fast casual tailwinds extend beyond price gaps. Sara talks about why she expects the category to continue to take share of restaurant spending. The Away-from-home coffee is a category continues to grow even though US per capita coffee consumption has been flat to down for decades. Sara discusses why demographics could keep this running. We also address immigration, labor shortages and restaurants use of AI.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• Big beautiful sales beats should accelerate profit growth

  Rev beats bode well but may not lead to big index gains The percentage of companies beating on earnings and revenues this season is higher than average and the percentage beating on sales is the highest in four years. Tariffs may be playing a role in the sales beats but either way, the better than expected revenues suggest companies are able to raise prices, a positive sign for corporate resilience. Coupled with softer labor markets and AI, the prospects for operating leverage are strong. And while it's tech and megacaps driving capex growth thus far, Savita believes that even narrow capex growth can lead to a broadening of stock performance. Savita squares all of this with her S&P target which offers limited upside. Whether it's this year or next, the Fed is likely to resume rate cuts and we discuss implications for markets and styles.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• US dollar slide sustains the Emerging Markets ride

  Could be in the early stages of a re-weighting into EM Emerging Market (EM) equities have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The weaker US dollar has furnished a number of positives for EM assets, from cheaper funding to less imported inflation to a more attractive carry trade. David Hauner discusses the various positives ahead, including superior economic growth, central bank cutting cycles and the possibility of a lengthy dollar decline. David also discusses EM credit which has seen buying from US investment grade and high yield funds attracted to compelling yields. One of the main risks to this bullish view is a significant deterioration in global trade. So far, however, trade numbers look good and should things deteriorate enough to warrant Fed rate cuts, the dollar could weaken further, bolstering relative performance for EM.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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