LiveSquawk Market Talk

The ECB is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points — but what happens if Lagarde stays hawkish? Beat Nussbaumer and Guenter Grimm break down the ECB’s inflation problem, why the dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable despite strong US data, and why the yen’s recent surge may signal a much bigger shift in global capital flows. They also discuss the key CPI and PPI data ahead, BOJ rate hike expectations, and the risks building in the US bond market.

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162,000 payrolls and a revised July print put the jobs market back on solid footing — but two-year yields stalled at 4.42% and the dollar refused to break out. Ryan Littlestone and Michael Brown break down exactly why this number matters less than what CPI and PPI deliver next week, and why the data cycle that crushed the dollar last month is about to repeat itself.

Ryan Littlestone, Forex Analytix X: @forexanalytix
Michael Brown, Pepperstone X: @MrMBrown

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Kevin Walsh skipped the dot plot at his first meeting, wrote terser statements, and inherited three hawkish dissents. Marc Chandler maps out where the other six rate-hike sympathisers on the FOMC actually stand — and why the minutes may tell you more about the September outcome than the data prints that preceded them.Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins LiveSquawk Market Talk alongside Sam Cutler of 333 Capital.

Read Marc's daily commentary at marctomarket.com, follow on X at https://x.com/marcmakingsense and on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/chandlermarc/

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Trueflation at 1.29%, waste management volumes at pandemic lows, and record apartment concessions — the real economy is whispering recession while energy prices scream inflation.

So why might the Fed hike anyway, and what would that tell us about what comes next?

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The Bank of Japan may be moving from biannual to quarterly hikes — a marginal policy shift with an outsized signal.

Combined with a one-third market probability of a Fed hike and a nailed-on ECB move in September, this week's central bank calendar is anything but quiet.

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