LiveSquawk Market Talk

Hot CPI and PPI prints failed to break bonds — and Kevin Muir of the Macro Tourist thinks he knows why. With The Economist cover curse and AI bubble mechanics in play, Muir makes a provocative case that the long end may already be at its low, while Sam Cutler of 333 Capital warns that bond buyers are hedging financing stress, not betting on disinflation.

Kevin Muir, Macro Tourist
X: https://x.com/kevinmuir
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-muir-603a0435/
Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/kevinmuir.bsky.social
Website: https://themacrotourist.com

Sam Cutler
X: https://x.com/search4yield3

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⁠⁠Timestamps:
02:20 Hot US CPI, the bond rally and the AI trade
10:00 IMF forecasts and the US AI bubble risk
13:50 UK GDP, Huw Pill and four hikes priced in
21:47 RBA stays hawkish, China's pull on Australia
24:07 Week ahead: global PMIs and soft data
27:36 China Q3 GDP and the 2027 stimulus case
32:16 Canada CPI and the Bank of Canada
35:45 UK inflation and the Bank of England
38:14 Japan CPI, the BoJ and the yen
42:20 Midterms: why volatility looks cheap

The FOMC minutes showed almost unanimous concern over upside inflation risks — yet rate hike expectations are falling. Ryan Littlestone of Forex Analytics breaks down what that contradiction means for markets and why the Fed's credibility could soon be back in the crosshairs with an Iran-driven energy shock in the mix.

Ryan Littlestone, Forex Analytics
X: https://x.com/forexanalytix
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-littlestone-ba50a150
Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/forex-analyst.bsky.social
Website: https://www.forexanalytix.com

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Timestamps:00:00 Intro
01:53 FOMC minutes and Fed speakers
08:10 ECB accounts and second-round effects
12:47 French debt and Le Pen's budget plan
17:33 Spain snap election and Brazil's first round
19:14 Japan wages, Canada jobs and the next hikes
23:56 Oil, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
26:30 Week ahead: US September CPI
29:29 UK GDP and the energy squeeze
32:31 China inflation and the yuan
35:13 US retail sales and wrap-up

NFP Miss and the Fed's Fractured Voice: October Hike Bets Crumble A headline NFP print of just 29,000 sends October Fed hike odds to 20% — but Jamie Dutta of Vantage and strategist Guenter Grimm argue the real story is in the wage data, the three-sector jobs market, and whether a new Fed chair can silence a deeply divided committee.

Jamie Dutta, Vantage
X: https://x.com/vantagemkts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-dutta-6487a818
Website: https://www.vantagemarkets.com

Guenter Grimm
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guenter-grimm/

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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and guests
02:08 US payrolls miss: 29K vs 80K expected
04:40 Fed outlook: core PCE, Fed speakers and October hike odds
12:11 Eurozone inflation at 3.8% and the ECB
17:16 European bond sell-off: France, Germany and safe havens
21:51 RBA hikes again, the case for the Aussie
24:46 G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil and diesel
27:32 France: spreads, the May election and the ECB
32:32 Week ahead: FOMC minutes, German data, Brazil election
35:48 Wrap-up

Gregoire Dupont of Dupont Trading joins to break down a week dominated by SNB, Norges Bank, and Riksbank decisions — and why the collective hawkish drift across central banks signals something more structural than a one-off energy shock.

Follow Gregoire on X: https://x.com/GregoireDup
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregoire-dupont-ab3885
Website: https://duponttrading.com

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The ECB is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points — but what happens if Lagarde stays hawkish? Beat Nussbaumer and Guenter Grimm break down the ECB’s inflation problem, why the dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable despite strong US data, and why the yen’s recent surge may signal a much bigger shift in global capital flows. They also discuss the key CPI and PPI data ahead, BOJ rate hike expectations, and the risks building in the US bond market.

Follow Beat on X: x.com/MacrobeatL

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