LiveSquawk Market Talk

NFP Miss and the Fed's Fractured Voice: October Hike Bets Crumble A headline NFP print of just 29,000 sends October Fed hike odds to 20% — but Jamie Dutta of Vantage and strategist Guenter Grimm argue the real story is in the wage data, the three-sector jobs market, and whether a new Fed chair can silence a deeply divided committee.

Jamie Dutta, Vantage
X: https://x.com/vantagemkts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-dutta-6487a818
Website: https://www.vantagemarkets.com

Guenter Grimm
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guenter-grimm/

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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and guests
02:08 US payrolls miss: 29K vs 80K expected
04:40 Fed outlook: core PCE, Fed speakers and October hike odds
12:11 Eurozone inflation at 3.8% and the ECB
17:16 European bond sell-off: France, Germany and safe havens
21:51 RBA hikes again, the case for the Aussie
24:46 G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil and diesel
27:32 France: spreads, the May election and the ECB
32:32 Week ahead: FOMC minutes, German data, Brazil election
35:48 Wrap-up

Gregoire Dupont of Dupont Trading joins to break down a week dominated by SNB, Norges Bank, and Riksbank decisions — and why the collective hawkish drift across central banks signals something more structural than a one-off energy shock.

Follow Gregoire on X: https://x.com/GregoireDup
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregoire-dupont-ab3885
Website: https://duponttrading.com

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The ECB is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points — but what happens if Lagarde stays hawkish? Beat Nussbaumer and Guenter Grimm break down the ECB’s inflation problem, why the dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable despite strong US data, and why the yen’s recent surge may signal a much bigger shift in global capital flows. They also discuss the key CPI and PPI data ahead, BOJ rate hike expectations, and the risks building in the US bond market.

Follow Beat on X: x.com/MacrobeatL

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162,000 payrolls and a revised July print put the jobs market back on solid footing — but two-year yields stalled at 4.42% and the dollar refused to break out. Ryan Littlestone and Michael Brown break down exactly why this number matters less than what CPI and PPI deliver next week, and why the data cycle that crushed the dollar last month is about to repeat itself.

Ryan Littlestone, Forex Analytix X: @forexanalytix
Michael Brown, Pepperstone X: @MrMBrown

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Kevin Walsh skipped the dot plot at his first meeting, wrote terser statements, and inherited three hawkish dissents. Marc Chandler maps out where the other six rate-hike sympathisers on the FOMC actually stand — and why the minutes may tell you more about the September outcome than the data prints that preceded them.Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins LiveSquawk Market Talk alongside Sam Cutler of 333 Capital.

Read Marc's daily commentary at marctomarket.com, follow on X at https://x.com/marcmakingsense and on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/chandlermarc/

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