Oil Ground Up

What happens when geopolitical risk stops being theoretical and begins physically reshaping global oil flows?On this episode of Oil Ground Up, Rory Johnston is joined by Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, for a wide-ranging discussion on the collision between geopolitics, energy policy and physical commodity markets. Drawing on a career spanning power, natural gas, oil trading and hedge funds, Michelle explains how she now works at the intersection of market data and government policy—and why understanding the consequences of policy decisions has become increasingly important for energy markets.The conversation begins with the return of the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Michelle argues that the shale revolution fundamentally changed how markets priced geopolitical disruptions, creating years in which supply shocks from Libya, Russia, the Middle East and elsewhere struggled to sustain higher prices. Today, she believes that dynamic is changing.Rory and Michelle then tackle the debate surrounding Kpler's Strait of Hormuz tanker data. Michelle explains how Kpler combines AIS, satellite imagery and people at ports to track vessels. Despite flows approaching pre-war levels, product exports remain constrained, U.S. naval escorts are not a sustainable long-term solution, and confidence in the Strait has yet to be fully restored.The discussion then turns to the increasingly acute global diesel shortage and the limited options available to policymakers. Could Europe release strategic diesel inventories? Could China increase product exports? Could shipping regulations be temporarily relaxed to free additional diesel supply? And could the Trump administration restrict U.S. diesel exports—or use them as leverage to pressure Europe into releasing its own inventories?Michelle lays out the potential consequences of each option and explains why she sees an outright U.S. diesel export ban as less likely than Washington using energy as a form of economic statecraft. She assigns a 50% probability to the U.S. pressuring Europe to release more inventories, 25% to an export ban and 25% to allowing the market to solve the imbalance itself.This is a deep dive into oil markets, diesel, Hormuz, tanker tracking, strategic reserves and the increasingly complicated relationship between energy markets and geopolitics.

North America is suddenly facing a wave of new oil pipeline proposals—but which projects actually make commercial sense, and which are being driven by energy security and geopolitics?
On this episode of Oil Ground Up, Rory Johnston is joined by Rob Wilson, President of East Daley Analytics, for a deep dive into the rapidly changing North American oil infrastructure landscape. They begin with the latest resurrection of Keystone XL and explain how the proposed Prairie Connector and Bridger Pipeline system could move more Canadian crude through Cushing and ultimately toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Wilson explains why the project has commercial backing—and how adding more Canadian heavy crude could displace lighter U.S. barrels and create new infrastructure constraints elsewhere in the system.
The conversation expands into the growing competition between commercially driven pipelines and strategically motivated projects. Rory and Rob discuss Trans Mountain expansion opportunities, Enbridge Mainline optimization, a potential new Canadian West Coast pipeline, and whether Canada can realistically produce enough incremental oil to fill all the proposed capacity.
They also examine the return of Venezuelan heavy crude and whether it poses a meaningful threat to Canadian barrels in U.S. refineries. Wilson argues that existing pipeline infrastructure makes Canadian crude difficult to displace in the Midwest, while Venezuelan supply is more likely to compete with Mexican, Colombian and Middle Eastern heavy barrels on the Gulf Coast.
Finally, the discussion turns to the Permian Basin, where Rob sees a potentially overlooked problem developing. While enormous amounts of natural gas takeaway capacity have been built, crude pipeline additions have lagged. If high oil prices accelerate Permian production, existing pipelines could approach their limits and create a new crude egress bottleneck as early as 2027.

Rory Johnston returns to Oil Ground Up with David Wech, Chief Economist at Vortexa, for a deep dive into one of the most complicated oil markets in recent memory. With crude and refined products moving through increasingly opaque trade routes, Rory and David examine what tanker data is actually telling us about oil on water, the Strait of Hormuz, Russian exports, diesel shortages, China and the changing global flow of barrels.

David explains why the global market can simultaneously have plenty of theoretical crude supply while still experiencing severe regional shortages and logistical bottlenecks. They discuss declining U.S. crude exports, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining and export infrastructure, and why diesel may currently be the tightest part of the entire oil complex.

The conversation then turns to China, where rising refinery utilization and product exports could be bearish for diesel while increasing China's demand for crude. David also explains how the loss of Iranian barrels, competition for Russian crude, and reduced Atlantic Basin flows into Asia could create another period of significant crude tightness if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover as expected.

Finally, Rory and David dig into the challenge of tracking “dark” tanker movements through Hormuz, why short-term transit estimates can be misleading, and the emergence of a shuttle-tanker system moving crude out of the Persian Gulf. David lays out his outlook for the coming months—including the possibility that renewed geopolitical escalation could collide with an Asian market increasingly positioned for higher Middle Eastern supply.

Jeff Currie joins Rory Johnston on the Oil Ground Up Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on commodity price discovery, the changing structure of energy markets, and why today's geopolitical environment is unlike anything investors have faced in decades. Together they examine the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets, and why volatility—not price direction—has become the defining feature of modern commodity investing. Jeff also shares his long-term outlook on deglobalization, energy security, electrification, and the structural forces he believes will continue to reshape global commodity markets for years to come. It's an insightful discussion that blends macroeconomics, market structure, and real-world trading experience to explain what comes next for oil and commodities.

Gregory Brew returns to the Oil Ground Up Podcast to examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and what it means for global energy markets. Gregory and Rory Johnston discuss the fragile status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's shifting negotiating strategy, the future of U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf, and why shipping flows remain well below pre-war levels despite the end of active hostilities. The conversation also explores the internal dynamics of Iran's new leadership, the role of Israel in shaping the next phase of regional tensions, and why the current period may represent a long-term transition rather than a return to the old status quo. Finally, they consider what this new geopolitical reality means for oil prices, global supply chains, and the growing risk premium facing energy markets over the coming years.