Personable Markets: Louis-Vincent Gave on Trump-Xi Meet, ChatGPT v DeepSeek, China-India-Russia Deal
Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO & Co-Founder of Gavekal, returns to Personable as a two-time guest. From graduating Duke University with a BA in Economics, History & Chinese, to studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis brings a unique global perspective. He’s advised institutions, funds, and governments for decades - and in this episode, he dissects markets, AI, energy, and the U.S.-China dynamic with refreshing clarity.With experience spanning macro research, portfolio strategy, and global policy insights, Louis has built Gavekal into one of the world’s most respected independent research firms. Known for sharp takes on U.S.-China relations, the future of AI, and structural shifts in energy, Louis shares why the U.S. still holds “pocket aces,” why investors should be watching China-India-Russia integration, and why we may be entering a 20-year bond bear market. In this episode, he lays out the risks, opportunities, and new frameworks for investors navigating 2025 and beyond.In this episode, Louis-Vincent Gave discusses:◽️ The evolving U.S.-China relationship, tariffs, and rare earths◽️ AI: bubble or paradigm shift? U.S. closed vs. China’s open models◽️ Energy economics: why coal may fuel America’s AI race◽️ The Magnificent Seven, Nvidia, and overvaluation risks◽️ Global macro trends: China-India-Russia integration vs. U.S. dominance00:00 Intro00:32 Meeting Louis-Vincent Gave: Gavekal & background02:11 U.S.-China relations since 2018 semiconductor embargo05:13 U.S. advantages vs. China’s rapid rise09:19 Global trade trends: shifting toward the Global South13:40 Western media narratives: “imploding or taking over” China18:00 TikTok deal, Taiwan, tariffs & negotiations21:53 AI: bubbles, Nvidia, DeepSeek & open vs. closed models29:10 Employment disruption & the future of work38:35 Energy: U.S. vs. China, renewables, coal & AI power needs46:17 Inflation, social media, data & retail markets49:28 Investment strategies: AI bets vs. global opportunities53:10 Nvidia’s 75% corrections & systemic risk56:18 Macro trends: U.S. vs. China-India-Russia integration1:01:12 Gold, crypto & energy as diversification tools1:09:59 Public vs. private markets for investors1:13:20 Social media, retail investing & “gamifying” markets1:16:36 Bonds, pensions & a 20-year bear market1:18:11 Outro📌 ResourcesLouis-Vincent Gave:◽️ X: https://x.com/gave_vincent◽️ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/louis-vincent-gave-6260241 ◽️ Gavekal: https://research.gavekal.com/Harvey Bracken-Smith:◽️ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/harveybracken-smith◽️ Instagram: instagram.com/harveybsmith◽️ X (Twitter): x.com/harveybsmith_Personable Podcast:◽️ Instagram: instagram.com/personable.podcast◽️ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/personablepodcast◽️ TikTok: tiktok.com/@personableclips◽️ Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7JOTYDER6m2FDrlhop4api◽️ Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/personable/id1671640111Additional:◽️ The Draft (Sign up): thedraft.io◽️ Fundraising: justgiving.com/crowdfunding/LouLouRacefoiundation?utm_term=PvByaxmdnPersonable is a podcast dedicated to helping listeners become the best they can be by learning from the world’s best in their respective fields. This mission is inspired by my mother, Louise, who encouraged me to become the best version of myself before she passed away from cancer in 2023.This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.Support the show