The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Tim Moore to 
discuss the latest Purchasing Managers' Index data and what it reveals about the global economy, regional growth trends and construction-sector momentum.
Despite persistent headwinds — including geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, supply chain disruption and unsettled bond markets — global business activity has shown notable resilience. The discussion explores the factors supporting growth across services and manufacturing, while also examining why business confidence remains subdued despite stronger output.
The episode also looks at PMI coverage across the Middle East, including signs of improving momentum in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The conversation highlights the launch of the alrajhi capital Saudi Construction Index, which provides new monthly insight into residential, nonresidential and infrastructure activity in the region's largest construction market.
Paul, Andrew and Tim also compare Saudi construction trends with long-running construction PMI surveys in Europe and the UK, where housing activity remains under pressure from cautious demand, higher financing costs and economic uncertainty.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
GCC economies demonstrate resilience in August
Global Economic Outlook: September 2026
Click here for the latest PMI Pulse data wrap
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor
Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Paul Smith
Guests: Andrew Harker, Tim Moore
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who answers frequently asked questions shaping the macroeconomic outlook: why sovereign yields have been rising, whether AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation and policy rates, and what a weaker US dollar could mean for the global economy. This conversation was recorded in May 2026, and the questions are still top of mind today.
 
Ken explains that sovereign bond yields have moved higher as markets reassess inflation risks, central bank policy expectations and the sustainability of public finances. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, while concerns about second-round effects — from input costs to food prices — have added pressure. At the same time, investors are increasingly focused on high budget deficits and rising debt burdens, which may require higher returns to hold sovereign bonds.
 
The conversation then turns to the UK, where sovereign yields have risen more than in other G7 markets. Ken highlights the UK's persistent inflation challenge, the prospect of renewed Bank of England rate hikes, elevated public debt and lingering investor sensitivity after the gilt-market volatility of 2022.
 
Kristen and Ken also discuss whether an AI-driven productivity pickup could eventually lead to lower inflation and central bank policy rates. Ken describes this as an active and complex debate, especially in the US. While AI investment may support stronger productivity, he cautions that demand linked to AI spending has already increased, while the productivity gains have not yet been fully realized.
 
Finally, the episode examines the US dollar. Ken explains that the dollar had weakened notably before rebounding during the early stages of the Middle East conflict, as safe-haven flows returned. Looking through near-term volatility, he says several fundamentals — including the dollar's still-high valuation, persistent US current account deficits and expected shifts in interest-rate differentials — point to further depreciation over time. A weaker dollar could help some economies offset imported inflation from higher energy prices, but for the US, the impact would be more mixed, particularly if the decline were sharp.
 
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook: August 2026
Picture This: US-Japan Yen intervention signals growing concern over global financial stability
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
How El Niño will impact growth and inflation across major Latin American economies
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guest: Ken Wattret
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

Every new gigawatt of data center capacity requires a massive physical build-out: steel, concrete, cooling systems, backup power, transformers, heavy equipment, server racks and supporting infrastructure. By one estimate, each gigawatt of new U.S. data center capacity could require roughly 100,000 truckloads, according to one estimate.
 
In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Bill Cassidy, Senior Editor, Trucking and Domestic Transportation at the Journal of Commerce by S&P Global, and Paul Bingham, Director, Transportation Consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence, about why data center construction is a freight capacity story.
 
The conversation explores how surging demand from data center projects is arriving as the U.S. trucking market emerges from a post-pandemic freight recession, with capacity tightening, operating costs rising and regulatory enforcement removing some drivers and equipment from the market. As data center freight competes with retail, manufacturing, housing, energy and infrastructure shipments, shippers may face higher transportation costs, tighter capacity and more complex procurement decisions.
 
Bill and Paul also discuss how demand is spreading across transportation modes — from flatbed and heavy-haul trucking to dry van, less-than-truckload, intermodal rail, ocean shipping and air cargo — and why shippers may consider adopting a more integrated, end-to-end view of logistics planning for major construction projects.
 
The episode also previews themes that will be explored at the Journal of Commerce's Inland 26 Conference in Chicago, including freight demand, rates, capacity, network resilience and the broader economic outlook for transportation.
 
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:



Data centers pulling on already shrinking pool of US truck capacity
Breakbulk industry warily wades into AI
Click here to register for the Inland26 conference 
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Chokepoints vs. shortcuts: Supply chain outlook for critical maritime routes
Red Sea maritime and aviation risks
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guests: Bill Cassidy, Paul Bingham
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, taken from a July 15 webinar, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists discuss the latest shifts in the global macroeconomic outlook, including the resilience of the US economy, China's growth profile, political and fiscal developments in Latin America, and Europe's cautious recovery amid persistent energy, trade and consumer-demand headwinds.
Key themes
·       Shaky economic foundations remain the core global theme. Geopolitical uncertainty, unstable inflation and interest-rate dynamics, trade frictions and strained public finances continue to weigh on the outlook.
·       The US economy continues to show resilience. Lower energy intensity, AI-related investment and stronger equity valuations have helped support growth.
·       Asia Pacific growth is still highly export-dependent. China and several regional economies continue to benefit from technology- and AI-related demand, while soft domestic demand and inflation risks remain key vulnerabilities.
·       Latin America may be seeing an upside risk from political change. A shift toward more market-oriented policy agendas could improve investment conditions, although fiscal adjustment remains a major challenge across several economies.
·       Europe has weathered the energy shock better than in past crises, but growth remains modest. Lower energy intensity, healthier labor markets and softer energy prices have helped, while weak consumer demand, trade uncertainty, industrial softness and limited fiscal room continue to constrain the outlook.
Why it matters
The episode underscores how global growth is being shaped by a mix of resilience and fragility. AI investment, lower energy intensity and improving policy prospects in some regions are offering support, while geopolitical shocks, sticky inflation, strained public finances, weak domestic demand and fragile trade conditions continue to limit the upside. For businesses and investors, the outlook requires close attention to regional differences, policy shifts and the channels through which energy, technology and fiscal risks affect growth.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Global Economic Outlook: August 2026
How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook
Geopolitical Risk Brief: August 2026
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor: Global economy shrugging off persistent uncertainty
Recent economic resilience to shocks: So far so good, but don't take it for granted
Credits:
Host: Ken Wattret
Guests: Ben Herzon, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Rafael Amiel, Raj Badiani
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

More than 90% of global trade moves by sea, but identifying who actually owns and controls the vessels behind that trade remains one of the maritime sector's biggest compliance challenges. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Jeremy Domballe, Product Director of Maritime Intelligence and Risk, about the hidden ownership crisis at sea and why beneficial ownership transparency matters for sanctions compliance, illegal fishing, money laundering risk and supply chain integrity.
 
Jeremy explains how complex corporate structures, shell companies, nominee arrangements and rapid ownership transfers can obscure the true decision-makers behind maritime assets. He also discusses why vessel tracking alone is not enough, how regulatory gaps create risk for governments and businesses, and why a more vessel-centric approach to due diligence — or "know your vessel" — is becoming essential.
 
What you'll hear in this episode:
Why beneficial ownership is one of the hardest maritime risks to identify clearly
The limits of vessel tracking and port security when ownership data is opaque
The business, legal, reputational and operational risks of engaging with vessels tied to hidden owners
Practical steps regulators, port authorities, financial institutions and maritime companies can take to improve transparency
Why "know your vessel" due diligence may become increasingly important for maritime risk management


More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Click here to access the latest Maritime State of Play report
The Gulf Puzzle: Strategic Implications for Global Shipping Networks
Transshipment: Frequently Asked Questions
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Chokepoints vs. shortcuts: Supply chain outlook for critical maritime routes
Red Sea maritime and aviation risks
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guests: Jeremy Domballe
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun