The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith to discuss the latest signals from the global Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data and what they reveal about the direction of the world economy.
The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms.
The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends.
Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and the divergence between weaker PMI export readings and stronger official export data driven in part by AI-related demand. Phil and Andrew highlight how the AI boom is showing up in semiconductor prices, manufacturing performance and capital expenditure intentions, particularly in the US.
The episode closes with a look ahead to future PMI research on AI adoption and its impact on the workforce. This is the final episode before the summer break, with The Decisive returning in August for more insights and analysis.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
PMI data and commentary
Global Economic Outlook: July 2026
Click here to learn how the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the World Economic Service (WES) help corporate planners interpret shifting global growth signals
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Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Paul Smith
Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, vice president of global economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about frequently asked client questions on the recent oil shock, the conflict in the Middle East and the possible implications for the global economy.
The conversation was originally recorded on May 12 and considers how the jump in crude prices compares with past oil shocks, why the length of the disruption is critical, which economies appear most exposed, and what indicators can help track the effects on growth, inflation and monetary policy.
Ken explains that the increase in Brent crude prices following the start of the Middle East conflict was unusually large, with the monthly rise exceeding 40%. He cautions that the shock is still unfolding and that shortages, if they develop, could intensify the negative effects on global growth.
Although S&P Global Market Intelligence's base case still points to continued global expansion, Ken says the global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down markedly since February. Ken says global growth surprised to the upside in 2025 despite extreme uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, repeated tariff announcements and fears of retaliation, suggesting economies have adjusted to repeated shocks in recent years.
Key risks discussed in the episode include a failure to reach an agreement to end the conflict, a resumption or spread of hostilities, more persistent disruptions to energy production and supply, higher-for-longer prices, possible shortages, stronger inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and asset-price problems.
Listen to the full episode for Ken Wattret's perspective on how the oil shock could affect global growth, inflation and monetary policy — and what indicators may signal where the risks are headed next.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Midyear Economic Check-In
Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: July 2026
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor
Middle East war
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guest: Ken Wattret
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

At midyear 2026, agility is no longer just a strategic advantage — it is a requirement for navigating structural change. In part two of this two-part series, The Decisive host Kristen Hallam continues the conversation with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Ken Wattrett, Laurence Allan and Eric Johnson to explore how AI is showing up across the three strategic themes for 2026 outlined in the Age of Agility report. 
AI is presented as a connective force across the Age of Agility themes: it is supporting economic growth through major investment, reshaping geopolitical power dynamics through emerging technologies, and forcing companies to adapt to new trade and logistics realities. The discussion also flags a key risk: AI is a powerful growth engine, but dependence on one investment theme could create concentration risks if the boom proves uneven or short-lived.
The experts also discuss what they are watching for the rest of 2026 and into 2027 including:
Fiscal pressure and debt sustainability
Middle East conflict and energy market volatility
AI as a growth driver — and a concentration risk
Supply chain regionalization
Trade policy and USMCA negotiations
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Age of Agility report
Global Economic Outlook: June 2026
Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor
Frequently asked question: Do the effects of prior oil price shocks provide any pointers for the period ahead?
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guests: Ken Wattret, Eric Johnson, Laurence Allan
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

At midyear 2026, volatility is no longer the backdrop — it is the operating environment. In this episode, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Ken Wattrett, Laurence Allan and Eric Johnson to revisit the Age of Agility strategic themes: shaky economic foundations, shifting asymmetric power and adapting to trade realities.
The panel examines what has changed for decision-makers heading into the second half of 2026, from the Middle East conflict and oil price shocks to AI-driven investment, resource nationalism, trade disruption and the rewiring of global supply chains.
The experts provide timely signals on where resilience may hold — and where risks are becoming even more interconnected.
Listeners will learn:
How S&P Global Market Intelligence's 2026 "Age of Agility" strategic themes are holding up at midyear — and what has shifted.
Why geopolitical shocks, oil prices and fiscal constraints are reshaping the global economic outlook.
How trade routes and supply chains are being rewired by regionalization, choke points, tariffs and climate-related disruption.
How resource nationalism, critical minerals competition and emerging military technologies are changing geopolitical power dynamics.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Age of Agility report
Global Economic Outlook: June 2026
Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor
Frequently asked question: Do the effects of prior oil price shocks provide any pointers for the period ahead?
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guests: Ken Wattret, Eric Johnson, Laurence Allan
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam shares highlights from a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar on the forces reshaping procurement strategy. The conversation explores how prolonged disruption in the Middle East is moving beyond energy markets and into broader supply chains, affecting shipping, chemicals, metals and industrial inputs.
S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Emily Crowley, Gregory Muller and Maxwell Clarke examine why oil prices may stay higher for longer, why LNG markets are unlikely to repeat the extremes of 2022, and how AI-driven data center expansion is tightening capacity for transformers, electrical equipment, cooling systems and related components.
This episode is designed for procurement professionals, supply chain leaders, corporate strategists, market intelligence teams and anyone tracking how geopolitical disruption, energy markets and AI investment are reshaping industrial input costs and equipment availability.
What listeners will learn
Why procurement teams may not see meaningful price relief even as demand softens in parts of the economy
How inventory dynamics, shipping disruption and tariff uncertainty are shaping supplier behavior
Why data center construction is creating sustained pressure on electrical and cooling equipment markets
How companies can think about risk mitigation, contract management and inventory strategy in a constrained supply environment
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Commodity Price Watch: June 2026
US retailers forecast early — and brief — peak shipping season
Picture This: Mexico's Avocado Exporters Look Beyond US Market
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
Key takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefings
Credits:
Host: Emily Crowley
Guests: Gregory Muller, Maxwell Clarke
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun