The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

In this episode, taken from our May 19 client webinar, our economists unpack a high-stakes U.S. macro outlook shaped by geopolitical conflict, higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and change at the helm of the Federal Reserve. 
US GDP growth held up well in 2025, even as businesses and households faced historically high tariffs, volatility in financial markets and elevated uncertainty. This year brings a new source of risk: war in the Middle East. The U.S. economy should remain resilient in 2026, but growth is expected to slow to 1.6% as elevated oil prices and softer consumer spending weigh on activity.
Our experts also explore why tariffs are still keeping prices elevated, why the Fed is expected to stay on hold through 2026, and why rate cuts are not projected to resume until June 2027.
If you want a clear, scenario-based read on where the U.S. economy may be headed next—and what could change the path—this is the episode to queue up. A sharp, scenario-driven look at the 2026 U.S. economy—from oil shocks and inflation to tariffs, recession risk, and the Fed's next move.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Global Economic Outlook: May 2026
US Economic Pulse: Tax Day
Click here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor: The mounting economic costs of the Middle East conflict
US core PCE inflation rises to 3.3%; real spending up 0.1% in April
Frequently asked question: Should we be concerned about the labor force participation rate?
Credits:
Host: Emily Crowley
Guests: Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Michael Zdinak, Lawrence Nelson
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

Artificial intelligence is no longer a future story — it is already shaping how companies invest, how governments respond, and how labor markets evolve. But adoption is unfolding unevenly, with major differences across sectors, firm sizes, and regions.
In this episode, taken from a May 13 client webinar, we take a global look at the realities of AI adoption and its economic consequences. The discussion spans developed markets such as Germany, the UK, and Spain, where adoption is more advanced and often tied to productivity gains and workforce consolidation, as well as emerging economies including Brazil, India, and countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, where AI is more likely to complement labor and support output growth. 
Our experts also explore the widening gap between large enterprises and smaller firms. Larger companies are better positioned to deploy tailored, enterprise-wide AI strategies, while smaller businesses tend to adopt off-the-shelf tools more gradually and for narrower use cases. At the same time, the labor-market effects remain nuanced: routine tasks are being automated, demand is rising for roles in AI development, software engineering, data analytics, and operational support, and AI-driven layoffs remain limited relative to broader macroeconomic pressures.
A key focus is the infrastructure and execution challenge facing frontier markets. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, unstable power grids, reliance on diesel generation, foreign-exchange liquidity constraints, and elevated operating costs are limiting the productivity gains that AI and data-center investment might otherwise deliver. In some markets, operating costs are inflated by 30% to 40%, underscoring the gap between AI ambition and implementation reality. 
The discussion concludes with a forward-looking assessment of AI's long-term impact: near-term efficiency gains are likely to outpace workforce displacement, but over time AI could reshape labor demand more fundamentally, with significant implications for growth, competitiveness, and job creation.
If you're looking for a data-informed, globally comparative view of how AI is being adopted in practice — and what business leaders, investors, and policymakers should watch next — listen now.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Picture this: AI rush sparks massive increase in US high-tech imports
PMI data and commentary
Click here to read our full report on 2026 strategic themes
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Impact of AI investment on performance and labor dynamics
Key takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefings
SSA investment in data centers: Macroeconomic upside depends on deliverability
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guests: Sophie Malin, Pollyanna De Lima, Alisa Strobel
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this May 2026 episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists Paul Smith, Eleanor Dennison, and Andrew Harker dissect the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data to reveal how ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the global economic landscape. The team explores the ripple effects of supply chain disruptions, energy price surges, and heightened uncertainty on both manufacturing and service sectors across key regions.
Listeners will gain a comprehensive overview of the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI, highlighting modest growth in business activity alongside mounting inflationary pressures. The episode explores the eurozone's contrasting sector performance, with manufacturing buoyed by precautionary stockpiling and services facing contraction amid record-high uncertainty. Andrew Harker provides granular insights into commodity price movements, supply shortages, and the nuanced pass-through of costs in Asian economies, while Eleanor Dennison offers a deep dive into eurozone trends and the qualitative evidence from PMI panelists.
Tune in for expert analysis on stagflation risks, the challenges of forecasting in volatile times, and the critical role of PMI data in navigating economic turning points. Whether you're tracking inflation, supply chains, or global business sentiment, this episode delivers timely intelligence for decision-makers.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
PMI data and commentary
Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: May 2026
Click here for a special PMI client case study
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Paul Smith
Guests: Andrew Harker, Eleanor Dennison
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam explores the murky world of maritime identity manipulation—a growing threat that's reshaping global shipping, sanctions enforcement, and international trade. Joined by maritime risk and compliance expert Jeremy Domballe, Kristen unpacks how vessels can alter their digital, physical, and legal identities to operate undetected on the world's oceans.
From "zombie ships" reusing the identities of long-scrapped vessels to the physical "whitewashing" of ship names, Kristen and Jeremy reveal the methods bad actors use to evade sanctions, access restricted markets, and profit from illicit trade. They also examine the risks this deception poses to financial institutions, insurers, ship owners, and governments—highlighting why trust in vessel identity is foundational to the entire maritime ecosystem.
Listeners will gain insight into the latest trends in ID spoofing, including the manipulation of AIS signals, GNSS jamming, and unintentional identity errors that can create confusion across continents. The episode concludes with practical guidance on due diligence, technological countermeasures, and the importance of vigilance for anyone exposed to the maritime domain.
Discover why, in today's shipping world, not every vessel is what it seems—and what you can do to stay one step ahead.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Transshipment: Frequently Asked Questions
Port Congestion Analysis: Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia main hubs
Maritime Chokepoints Tighten, Global Supply Chain Risk Rises
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Middle East war
Truck trade: Hybrid routes provide Hormuz alternatives for containers, fertilizers
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guest: Jeremy Domballe
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market?
In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced.
What You'll Learn:
The Macro Outlook
Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession.
The Great Divide
Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures.
Central Bank Dilemmas
Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation and preventing an economic downturn—and why their responses could determine the trajectory of the global economy.
Beyond the Barrel
Uncover the hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains, from refined fuels and fertilizers to the unexpected fallout in non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, and real estate across the Middle East and Asia Pacific.
Regional Deep Dives
Get detailed analysis of how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions are experiencing these shocks differently, with vulnerability indices revealing which countries face the greatest macro-financial risks.
Join our experts for a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of vulnerabilities, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic risks defining the global economy today. 
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Global Economic Outlook: April 2026
Picture This: What Middle East Supply Disruptions Mean for the Asia-Pacific Region
Click here to hear our economists speak in Paris 
Click here to hear our economists speak in Frankfurt
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Middle East war
Global Executive Summary
Credits:
Host: Ken Wattret
Guests: Ralf Wiegert, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro, Ben Herzon
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun