FICC Focus

With markets questioning how much further the Federal Reserve will tighten, the path of short-term rates may matter more for the yield curve than persistent fears about inflation or fiscal policy. John Velis, macro strategist for the Americas at BNY Mellon Markets, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Velis explains why he expects a December hike but is skeptical the Fed will deliver all the tightening priced for 2027, which could eventually create opportunities to receive rates. The two also discuss why the Treasury curve may remain relatively flat until the market embraces a less-hawkish Fed path, how political and AI-related uncertainty is suppressing investor conviction, and what BNY’s custody data reveal about unusually cautious positioning. They close with Velis’ outlook for a softer dollar, particularly against select Asian and Canadian currencies.

he Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

The UK’s “low-key fiscal event” budget means a fading fiscal premium, for now, and a focus on sterling’s carry appeal as the first BOE rate rise in the cycle looms. In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence chief FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Ben Ford, FX strategist at Macro Hive in London, discuss sterling’s dynamics following the UK’s Oct. 28 budget and ahead of the Nov. 5 Bank of England policy meeting. The two examine sterling’s euro-proxy virtues during periods of French turmoil, validating BI’s 0.8250 euro-sterling view. Ford also touches on the bullish Swiss-franc view amid renewed risk aversion, consistent with Audrey Childe-Freeman’s case for defensive foreign exchange and euro-Swiss falling toward 0.91-0.90 in 2027.

The FX Moment podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With stronger nominal growth, persistent inflation and an AI-driven investment boom reshaping the macro backdrop, investors may need to rethink traditional stock and bond allocations. Anwiti Bahuguna, co-chief investment officer of Northern Trust Asset Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Bahuguna explains why she sees the post-Covid economy as a new macro regime, how a more divided Federal Reserve could affect the pace of tightening and why strong wealth effects continue to support US consumers. The two also discuss Northern Trust’s overweight to AI-linked emerging markets, Europe and the UK as portfolio diversifiers. Other topics include political risks surrounding data-center construction and why real assets may play a larger role in portfolios facing both inflation and growth shocks.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“The idea of patient capital is something of a dinosaur,” says Greg Peters, co-CIO for PGIM Credit, on the speed with which markets can reprice. “The rise of algos and CTAs, you’re just seeing a lot more volatility in the market.” Peters joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the market function, why sovereign and AI funding needs risk crowding-out behavior in markets, particularly at the long end, and the importance of a new response function at the Federal Reserve. They explore relative value across the curve, whether the hyperscaler debt stack is investable and regulatory arbitrage as a potential destabilizing force for markets.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses why US rates volatility has risen from its early-2026 lows but remains near longer-run historical averages rather than at an outright extreme. He also examines how higher forward rates may limit a return to those lows, where volatility is concentrated across the swaption surface and why risks priced by the options market are becoming more two-sided.