FICC Focus

The UK is at the forefront of market headlines amid a political crisis and record gilt yields. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, discusses how credit remains a safe haven in every crisis with Boris Okuliar, chief strategy officer and head of global diversified credit at Corinthia Global Management. They dig deep into the middle-market and private credit universe, covering deal profiles, spread premiums, typical leverage structures, fees and expected investor returns. They also discuss deal quality, expected holding periods, exit strategies and the role of traded credit within portfolios.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss how the evolving UK political dynamics leave sterling exposed in the near term via the potential revival of a negative fiscal premium. Jordan and Audrey also revisit the dollar-yen outlook following the recent Ministry of Finance/Bank of Japan FX intervention and discuss what scenarios could take the pair out of the 155.00-160.00 trading range, with a broadly weaker dollar outlook and/or joint FX intervention — with the US — the best contenders to trigger a sustainable push lower in the currency pair.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey lays out his latest views on the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury market in this solo Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey discusses why he expects the Fed to remain on hold for at least the next several months, even after Jay Powell’s departure and Kevin Warsh’s expected arrival as chair. He examines the significance of recent FOMC dissents, the challenges Warsh may face in building support for rate cuts, and why shrinking the balance sheet while easing policy could prove difficult without broader changes to bank regulation. Jersey also explains how uneven job growth, inflation expectations and developments in oil prices could shape the path of policy and rates. He reviews his outlook for the Treasury curve, including why he expects the long end to remain rangebound and the front end to be driven by inflation breakevens and Fed expectations. Jersey closes with his view that Treasury coupon issuance will remain manageable through continued reliance on Treasury bills.

“We always want to be big enough in any given strategy that we’re relevant to the market, relevant to our counterparties,” says Grant Nachman, Shorecliff Asset Management’s CIO and CEO. “But we always want to try to be nimble enough that we don’t have to own everything.” Nachman joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss Shorecliff’s “full-cycle credit” approach, new challenges in managing a firm as assets and headcount scale, and how to stay disciplined amid growth. They also explore the importance of relationships, relative value between broadly syndicated loans and high yield corporate bonds, and whether private credit’s consolidation phase will affect tradeable markets.

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses cross-asset volatility, including how markets were largely driven by the same oil-related macro shock, with equities marked by sharp rallies and slower pullbacks. He also covers this week’s Japanese FX intervention and the rates outlook after key policy decisions.