FICC Focus

Private credit is becoming an alternative to loan financing and CLOs are driving most loan supply. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence and Paul Mehta, Leveraged Credit Portfolio Manager at Aberdeen Investments, reflect on how both the US and European leveraged loan markets fared and on the outlook for loans in 2026. They discuss BI’s leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth relative to the bond market using Bloomberg loan and bond indexes. They also address private credit in detail including financing premiums, sizes and risks along with the outlook for CLO issuance, reinvestment risks, arbitrage evolution and implications for 2026.

SPX correlation is historically low, while the average single-stock volatility is elevated amid AI momentum. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Maxwell Grinacoff, Head of US Equity Derivatives Research at UBS. They discuss the dynamics of equity volatility, growth of derivative-based ETFs, shift in product composition and option flow as a source of market dislocations.

The quantity of reserves is now determined by the amount necessary to run the payment system, says Darrell Duffie, a professor at Stanford University. On the Macro Matters podcast, Duffie joins hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s US and Canada rates strategist, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s policy implementation framework. They cover ongoing shifts in balance-sheet policy and a return to net Treasury purchases, changes to the US banking and payments systems and what those mean for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. They also touch on the nuanced challenges posed by stigma around the Fed’s lending facilities.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“Time can be a good thing. Time can be a very bad thing…I think the whole market moves a bit slower now when there are problems in terms of how those problems get dealt with,” says Axar Capital founder & CEO Andrew Axelrod when discussing the evolution in markets away from mark-to-market investment vehicles. Axelrod joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about how he sees the current credit backdrop, whether the 4Q credit flare-ups are cockroach, canary or just commonplace, and the challenges to recoveries from zombie owners.

The 2026 dollar bear view is at the mercy of confirmed Fed dovishness, with the different stages of respective G10 monetary policy cycles likely to shape currency performances this year. If this is your central working assumption, then the case for dollar-yen downside becomes more compelling again, as does our Australian dollar bullish bias. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Brown Brothers Harriman Global Head of Markets Strategy Elias Haddad discuss their currency views for 2026, focusing on the key drivers and strongest G10 FX convictions. Haddad confirms a dollar-yen bearish case, while Childe-Freeman believes that the bullish Aussie view from 4Q25 can extend this year.