Tariffs, Debt Brake, Fed and ECB Impact on Credit: Credit Crunch
Government bonds sold off in the past weeks, due to tariff news from the US and the debt brake being eased soon in Germany and this has increased the probabilities of rate cuts by central banks, including the Fed. Credit rallied through this mayhem and the big question is, will this strength continue? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Pierre Krief, Head of Credit at CDC (Caisse Des Depots ET Consignations) discuss tariffs and debt brake effect on inflation, growth and central bank policy, its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after the big rates moves.
They discuss rates, yields and credit spreads along with curve steepening, the dollar weakness and their impact on credit.
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42:43
Anchorage’s McGrath Breaks Down LMEs: State of Distressed
“Even if we hear rumblings that NDAs are out there with third parties and private lenders are looking at assets,... we’re still in a position where — why wouldn’t they come back to us — because we have more to give,” said Patrick McGrath, partner at Anchorage Capital. “If I’ve invested in a structure and I have a group, I can give them more time. That’s valuable. I can address interest rates. I can probably provide the money a little bit cheaper and I can give them certainty as opposed to them saying I’m going to finance the business away.” McGrath sat down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku at the Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference last month (8:00). He dove into the intricacies of liability management exercises, including the asymmetry of information, discerning whether “deals away” are credible, and the importance of institutional reputation.
Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Brendel discuss how March may shake up complacent high yield and syndicated loan markets. The podcast concludes with a BI roundtable discussion covering J&J, Franchise Group, Spirit Airlines, Yellow, Ardagh, WW International, and Serta Simmons (1:14:20).
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1:47:30
Artisan’s Cirami Dusts Off the EM Cold War Playbook: EM Lens
It’s back to the future in emerging-market debt, and creditors should look to the Cold War when analyzing geopolitical risk in global fixed-income portfolios. Michael Cirami, Managing Director at Artisan Partners and a portfolio manager for EMsights Capital Group, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his company’s approach to investing across the emerging and frontier debt markets. Cirami and Sassower assess the potential for alpha generation in EM fixed income, from off-benchmark positioning and idiosyncratic risk to shifting inflation dynamics and deteriorating growth expectations.
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31:31
Dollar at Crossroads as Tariffs, Growth Path Evolve: FX Moment
The weakening path recently observed through US survey evidence has yet to be confirmed by a sustained turn in the core economic news flow, but if confirmed, this could entertain a more bearish dollar outlook than envisaged at the start of the year. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Valentin Petrescou, senior portfolio manager at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, discuss the US dollar outlook amid an ever-evolving tariff narrative, with Petrescou arguing that a trade war scenario may not be all that dollar bullish in the current economic cycle. The two also discuss the merits of yen exposure in FX diversification strategies and conclude a euro-dollar parity scenario is fading.
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24:40
Delos’ Lefkovits on Private Credit, Default Trend: Credit Crunch
Hybrid capital solutions may aid small and medium enterprise companies confronting balance-sheet challenges amid persistently high borrowing costs. Ari Lefkovits, managing partner at Delos Capital, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss trends in private credit markets, and Delos’ advisory and principal investment approach. The conversation digs into the adoption of co-op agreements between lenders, transformations in the default process, hybrid capital benefits as well as inflation and tariff impacts.
Brasil