FICC Focus

“Troubled businesses don’t turn around on a dime. They took years to get messed up. They got worse through the restructuring when they were capital-starved,” observed Jon F. Weber, founder of Jon F Weber & Co. “A lender should not have the expectation that, upon pouring in liquidity and improving the capital structure, they’re going to immediately improve. We’re in the reality business... We have to establish what can be realistically achieved with a 70%-80% probability and align awards, budgets and all of those things around those outcomes.” Weber and Jon F Weber & Co. board director Alvaro Aguirre shared their well-honed insights with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel, as they delved into their recent paper, “From Creditor to Owner: Adapting an Ownership Playbook.” They highlight the need for lenders to act swiftly and decisively to prepare for potential ownership, as well as the common pitfalls that can arise during this transition. The podcast concludes (1:02:40) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Balluku and Brendel to discuss the latest developments in Hertz, First Brands, New Fortress Energy, Multi-Color Corp., Serta and Telesat.

The Federal Reserve still has an easing bias and may lower rates another 50 bps this year, says Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for BNY Investments, on this edition of Macro Matters in the FICC Focus podcast series. Reinhart joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss BNY Investments’ view on the economy and central bank actions as uncertainty remains high around energy prices. The two discuss the economic backdrop and how the path of nominal growth may remain steady even as the inflation/real growth mix shifts. Reinhart also discusses the cadence of work while he was with the Fed’s Monetary Affairs staff and as secretary of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The US-Iran ceasefire and associated relief in risk aversion and pullback in oil prices may be a first step out of the sterling-dollar bear cycle of the past few weeks. There will be cyclical relief as the market adjusts back to less hawkish Bank of England rate expectations, which were hurting the pound via the stagflation narrative. Structural relief may also emerge, as the expected monetary-fiscal policy mix implies less reliance on fiscal stimulus to support the economy and reduces fiscal credibility concerns that have become a constant consideration for sterling. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Bloomberg Economics Chief UK Economist Dan Hanson discuss the U-turn in Bank of England rate and growth expectations in the context of the Iran conflict, fiscal policy, as well as how UK politics could shape sterling’s near- to mid-term dynamics.

Sovereign balance sheets should come under renewed pressure as the war-induced oil shock forces EM governments to take extraordinary measures aimed at actively defending their domestic economies. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the risks facing EM creditors as the war in Iran endures. Natalucci and Sassower differentiate between level and trend when discussing the medium-term impact on EM growth and inflation expectations, with potential for yields to decline once recession probabilities reach critical mass.

Wider spreads and credit enhancement causing upgrades in auto asset-backed securities reduces the sector’s risk against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist. Chadehumbe joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s US Rates Strategist to discuss the findings from the first ABS Primer on available on the terminal. Though spreads are tight compared to the five-year average, inflation may not cause spreads to widen. The note also makes the case for Auto ABS against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt. Chadehumbe isn’t concerned about the current level of subprime delinquencies given the credit enhancement these structures have, but is concerned with the job market and what happens if delinquencies rise much further.