FICC Focus

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING Bank in London, discuss dollar-yen near- and mid-term dynamics. The combined shift in the dollar view following the July 29 Fed meeting, stretched long positioning and joint US-Japan FX intervention were the perfect catalysts for a sharp move lower in dollar-yen, yet the market is already questioning whether the move can be sustained. Childe-Freeman and Turner both see a risk of further joint FX intervention, which should keep dollar-yen bulls in check for now, while US economic data and the associated Fed outlook, along with the BOJ’s September policy decision and Japan’s fiscal credibility, may determine how bullish investors can be on the yen into 4Q. They also discuss non-dollar ways to express the carry trade, including via bullish Norwegian krone and Australian dollar views.

“In the US today, what you see is... capital leaving the system out of the BDCs, and that’s creating a lot of technical pressure on the market,” says Robin Doumar, founder and managing partner of Park Square Capital. “So we should see better structures, better pricing, better terms.” In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Doumar joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss Park Square Capital’s founding, growth and evolution since its launch in 2004, as well as its prospects for future growth. The two discuss the shift toward institutional private credit from what was once a bank-dominated European leveraged finance market, the benefits of evergreen funds and why current challenges facing large BDCs may create technical tailwinds for direct lenders more broadly. Doumar also talks about borrower selection, being willing to own an asset and the importance of culture to Park Square’s story.

Kevin Warsh’s new communications approach may be creating more uncertainty for markets, not less. Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics chief US economist, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Wong discusses why Warsh’s latest press conference appeared to contribute to the selloff in long-dated Treasuries, how his reluctance to provide a clear policy framework raised questions about the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target and what changes could emerge from the central bank’s communications task force. They also examine whether the Fed could adopt Bank of England-style explanations of individual dissents, publish scenario analyses and reduce its reliance on the dot plot. Wong explains why she expects softer inflation and labor-market data to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of 2026, and how the recent rise in real yields could slow housing, industrial production and broader financial conditions.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Emerging market equities are among this year’s top-performing asset classes globally as investors benefit from strengthening fundamentals, diminishing foreign-exchange volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Andrew Keiller, partner at Baillie Gifford, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to assess the environment for thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities further down the EM capital structure. Keiller and Sassower discuss the durability of alpha generation, the formation of behavioral biases and structural inefficiencies across EM equity markets.

“There are a lot of people who would love to give away their prepayment option to get their family into the home they want,” says Adam Rilander, CIO and head of agency MBS strategies at Bright Meadow, an investment team within Mariner Investment Group. Rilander joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss housing affordability, potential unintended consequences of mortgage policy, investment opportunities across the MBS landscape and why higher-coupon paper may be undervalued. Rilander and Adelberg also explore the pluses and minuses of mortgage lock-ins, builder buydowns, potential Basel III impacts and why static home prices could be the market’s best medicine.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.