FICC Focus

Credit and high yield are in the red for the year after a two-month selloff. Will 4Q deliver gains or more losses, and why? On this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with George Flynn, high-yield portfolio manager at New Capital, EFG International. They cover valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. The podcast also examines survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geographies (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

Asset allocators should prepare for continued bouts of volatility, as negative asymmetry in market fundamentals, valuations and technicals is causing investors to trim equity exposure and move up the capital stack. Trevor Slaven, Global Head of Asset Allocation and Multi-Asset Portfolio Solutions at Barings, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist, to assess the AI-induced transformation taking place across the global economy. Slaven and Sassower explore the impact of IT-related capital expenditure on labor markets, inflation expectations and corporate margins, with high-beta asset classes exposed to greater downside risk.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With global bond yields at multi-decade highs and markets pricing further central-bank tightening, investors are reassessing the relative value of rates, equities and currencies. Christian Lawrence, chief cross-asset strategist at Rabobank, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Lawrence argues that the recent surge in Treasury yields has been driven more by real rates and strong growth than by rising inflation expectations, and says the latest move increasingly resembles a pain trade that could partially reverse. The two discuss how higher yields are already weighing on market breadth beneath equity indexes, why large-cap companies with strong free cash flow may remain better positioned and how changing hedge ratios and interest-rate differentials are influencing the dollar. They also examine whether markets are pricing too many rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, the global trend toward looser fiscal policy and why relative-value trades may offer better opportunities than outright directional bets while volatility remains elevated.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“You want to buy the security based on this yield, but you have to protect against the risks,” says Mike Vranos, CEO and founder of Ellington Management Group. “What you see is many investors just ignore the option they’re short or, in the extreme example, they ignore the left tail risk,” Vranos adds when discussing how to deliver alpha in securitized products. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss innovation in the mortgage-backed market during his time at Kidder Peabody and later at Ellington, the rise of non-qualified mortgages and the merits of CLO equity. The three discuss the role of insurance capital, investment discipline and where value resides in the current landscape, before closing on the importance of philanthropy.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“’Co-op first, ask questions later’ is down a bit from its peak, though not dead,” observes John Sobolewski, Global Chair of Latham & Watkins’ Liability Management Practice, as he addresses the latest dynamic between debtors and lenders in distressed situations. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel sit down with John to explore the current state of Liability Management Exercises (LMEs) and why stakeholders are ultimately motivated to find negotiated resolutions over value-destroying, multiyear litigation. The conversation unpacks the delicate mechanics of these negotiations, including why repeat market players will give minority holdouts a fair shake but “hold the line” against nuisance value to avoid giving an inch that turns into a yard. John also breaks down the massive bid-ask spreads — think “Grand Canyon” — between debtors and creditors, why debt funds continue to resist taking back equity, and the software sector’s growing interest in LM solutions.

The podcast concludes (53:10) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil for a roundup of their latest research on Air Baltic, QVC, DISH DBS, DISH Wireless, Hughes Satellite Systems, Telesat, and Xerox.

The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.