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Weak Dollar and Trade Deal Prospects - Grain Markets Catch a Bid
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into big moves in the currency, grain, gold, and policy worlds—and what they mean for agriculture and global markets.💵 US Dollar WeaknessThe US dollar tumbled to multi-year lows as markets brace for a potential Fed rate cut. A weaker dollar is giving commodities a lift, but stronger-than-expected retail sales could temper the Fed’s dovish tone. See charts on the US Dollar Index, USD/BRL, and Bloomberg Commodity Index.🌏 Trade & TariffsTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled fresh US-China trade talks are coming. If no deal is reached, President Trump’s tariffs (34% baseline, up to 60% effective) will take effect November 10. Last year’s $300B trade deficit with China is expected to shrink by 30% this year. Notably, China has yet to purchase US soybeans this marketing year.🌽🌱🌾 Grain Futures RallyCorn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher Tuesday:Corn near $4.30Soybeans near $10.50Wheat higher for the 4th straight sessionDrivers: weak USD, smaller crop worries, and optimism over export demand.🧪 Fertilizer Research ActSenators Grassley, Baldwin, and Ernst reintroduced bipartisan legislation directing USDA to study fertilizer pricing and competition. Fertilizer now accounts for ~36% of corn farmers’ costs. The bill has backing from NCGA and ASA.🥇 Gold at Record HighsGold surged past $3,700/oz—its strongest run since 1979. Hedge funds and ETFs are piling in, with stagflation and global instability adding fuel. ⛽ Biofuel Policy UpdatesThe EPA is weighing proposals to reallocate waived blending requirements from the Small Refinery Exemption program. Options:50% reallocation (2023–2025)100% reallocation (2026–2027)Public comment runs through October 31.👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop a comment with your take on the Fed’s next move, and hit the bell 🔔 so you never miss a market shift!
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14:18
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14:18
More Direct Farm Payments are Coming - How Much?? $10Bil?? $15Bil?? Who Benefits?
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Payments4:12 US/China Talks5:45 Brazil Soy Planting Starts8:17 Crop Progress/Conditions10:13 NOPA Soy Crush11:19 Tyson and High-Fructose Corn Syrup13:26 Grain Shipments are Strong14:31 Flash Sale🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets.💰 USDA Aid & Farm SupportUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10B—or higher.🌍 Trade & China UpdatePresident Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were “very good,” China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges.🌱 Brazil Planting & ProductionBrazilian farmers are just starting soybean planting—0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress.🌽 US Crop Progress & ConditionsCorn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested.Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvested—slightly behind LY but ahead of avg.Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%.🏭 Crush & ProcessingNOPA August crush: 189.81M bu—record for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, the lowest since Dec 2024.🍗 Tyson & Corn SyrupTyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tyson’s feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy.🚢 Exports & SalesUS corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu of corn to unknown buyers.👉 Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!
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15:40
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15:40
Bearish USDA Report... But Corn Rallies?! Here's Why
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 USDA and Corn Rally6:10 The Funds8:26 US/China Talks to Resume9:39 USDA Reporting Problems11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & SoybeansUS corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%. 📉 Funds Add to ShortsCFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:Corn: -4k contractsSoybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)SRW Wheat: -10k contracts🤝 US–China Trade TalksTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.🇨🇳 Export Sales TwistLast week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.🛢 Soybean Oil SurpriseUSDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.
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12:27
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12:27
Building Drought vs. Record USDA Yield Estimates: Which Story Wins??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Building Drought6:13 USDA Preview9:41 Export Sales12:21 Brazil's Crop Report14:20 Inflation is Up🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇🌦 Weather & Drought MonitorUSDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.Corn: 13% affectedSoybeans: 22%Winter Wheat: 38%Spring Wheat: 13%Cattle: 18%📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/diseaseUS ending stocks seen slightly lowerGlobal corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up🚢 Export SalesUS corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyerSoybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyerWheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)Conab raised estimates again:Corn: record 139.7 mmtSoybeans: record 171.5 mmtSoy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by ChinaBrazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.📈 Economy & CPIUS consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
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17:45
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17:45
USDA to Cut Crop Estimates? + Joe Attempts Positive Spin on Soybean Situation
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:49 USDA Preview3:38 Argentina Situation7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth12:15 Ethanol Production🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewThe USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.🇦🇷 Argentina OutlookRosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US SoybeansChina booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.⛽ Biofuels & Policy UncertaintyTrump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.🍶 Ethanol Production & MarginsUS ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.👉Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and leave a comment with your thoughts on tomorrow’s report.
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14:04
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14:04