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5 de 1576

"There is No Trade Deal" - China Buys Only 3% of US Soybean "Commitments"
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Falls Far Short of US Soybean TargetsConcerns are growing over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans. USDA data released Friday showed that China has purchased just 332,000mt of US soybeans since the recently negotiated trade truce—less than 3% of the 12mmt China was reported to have agreed to buy by January. Officials also suggested China would purchase 25mmt annually for the next three years, but there’s little evidence of follow-through.With 31 business days left in 2025, China would need to average 376,387mt per day (about 14 million bushels daily) to meet the target. For now, China has little incentive to buy US soybeans because Brazil and South America are offering cheaper, abundant supplies. Even so, President Trump has said Chinese officials assured him that “much larger” purchases are coming.📊 USDA Report: Bearish Corn, Softer Soybean OutlookFriday’s USDA report carried a bearish tone for corn. USDA cut the national corn yield to 186 bpa and production to 16.75B bu, but trade expected even lower. The average pre-report guess was 184 bpa and 16.56B bu.Soybean yield was trimmed to 53 bpa, with production at 4.25B bu, both below expectations. Despite the new US–China trade truce, USDA reduced its soybean export forecast to 1.6B bu. The agency also noted that several normal data sources were unavailable, raising concerns about data quality and reliability.🧪 Tariffs Removed on Fertilizer ProductsPresident Trump signed an executive order Friday removing reciprocal tariffs on several agricultural inputs, including DAP, MAP, and potash. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, expecting lower fertilizer costs for farmers. Critics counter that the rollback effectively admits that prior tariffs raised consumer and producer costs. The administration maintains the tariffs improved America’s economic leverage.🇧🇷 Brazil Weather: Spotty Rain, Slow Soybean PlantingInconsistent rainfall continues to slow Brazil’s planting pace. AgRural estimated soybean planting at 71%, behind 80% during the same week last year. CropProphet data shows key Brazilian soybean areas received 82% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, with Mato Grosso at 77%.🥩 Tariff Changes for Food ProductsTrump also reduced tariffs on certain food products not grown in the US, including beef. The order removes the 10% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef last April but leaves the existing 40% tariff (from July) and 26.4% over-quota tariff in place—meaning Brazilian beef still faces a combined 66.4% rate. The policy shift has introduced uncertainty into cattle markets and weighed on prices.
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10:50
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10:50
Corn RALLIES to 4-Month High, USDA to Cut Production Estimate
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA ReportsCorn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown🚢 US Export Sales Return After ShutdownFor the week ending Sept 25:• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still StrongWeekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:• Output: -2.7%• Stocks: +1%Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean OutlookSoybeans:• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exportsCorn:• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)🌧️ US Drought Monitor UpdateRainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of OklahomaUS Areas in Drought:🌽 Corn—29%🫘 Soybeans—31%🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%🌾 Spring Wheat—17%🐄 Cattle — 28%
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11:19
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11:19
Soybean Prices Erase ALL "Trade War Losses" - but Why??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Grain Markets This MorningSoybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines.🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean AcresMarket economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago.Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets.🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again)Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet:12mmt pledge before Jan 125mmt annually over the next three yearsChina never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff.With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks.🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST)Expectations heading into Friday:Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large cropSoybeans: Slight cuts to yield and productionEnding stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheatGlobal stocks: Minimal changes expectedUSDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions.🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the TableThe Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend.Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.
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22:33
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22:33
Clock Ticks on US/China Soybean "Deal" - China Inks Deal to Buy More from Brazil
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Chooses BrazilChina’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus.Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st.🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn ImportsAs part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff.Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand.🏛️ Shutdown Nears an EndThe Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30.All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize.Traders are watching for the return of two key reports:1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing?2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything?🌽 WASDE & Crop Production AheadThe USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect:A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and productionSlight declines for soybeansMarginal increases to U.S. ending stocksBecause of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight. 📈 Grain Market RecapFutures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped.Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.
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11:47
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11:47
Iowa Politicians Want "Absentee Landlords" to Pay Higher Taxes
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 Iowa Farmland ControversyIowa Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is backing a plan to raise taxes on out-of-state property owners — including farmland. Sand argues it would help make land more affordable for Iowans and preserve state culture.👉 Iowa State University’s 2022 data shows half of Iowa farmland is owned by non-farmers, and a quarter of 2022 land sales were investment-driven. Two of the top 10 landowners in Iowa are based out of state.🌱 Market UpdateSoybeans led Monday’s rally—Jan 26, up 13¢ to $11.30/bu—as optimism grows that the government shutdown may end and exports to China may pick up.Corn gained nearly 3¢ to $4.30, and Chicago wheat rose 8¢ to $5.36.📊 Traders are eyeing possible yield cuts in Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.🚢 Export InspectionsUSDA data showed 1.1mmt of soybeans inspected for export last week—up 11% from the prior week but down 54% from last year.🇨🇳 China was absent from the market.Corn: 1.4mmt (strong vs. last year)Wheat: 290kmt (weaker week-over-week)🥩 Tyson Foods OutlookTyson Foods expects 2026 profits to hold steady despite ongoing beef segment losses from high cattle prices.🐄 The US cow herd is at a 70-year low, and rebuilding may take until 2028.🍗 Stronger demand for chicken and processed products is helping offset beef weakness.President Trump recently urged the DOJ to investigate major packers — including Tyson — over alleged price manipulation.🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & PlantingBrazil’s soybean planting reached 61%, up 14% from the week prior but behind last year’s 67%.🌦️ Irregular rainfall continues to slow progress.Corn planting is 72% complete, in line with 2024.
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11:31
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11:31