Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾

🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rain eased drought across parts of the Corn Belt (central/NW Indiana, SE Kentucky, N Illinois, NW Minnesota, SE Wisconsin), but dry pockets in Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois saw conditions worsen. The Plains stayed hot, with drought deepening in North Dakota, western Nebraska, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma despite some relief in the Dakotas/Nebraska. 🌵

📈 Grain Futures Recap — Corn (Dec26) ticked up 2¢ to $4.62/bu on short covering, though Corn Belt rain forecasts kept a lid on gains. Soybeans (Nov26) climbed 3¢ to $11.78/bu on fresh Chinese demand, while wheat slipped despite Black Sea shipping uncertainty. 💹

🇨🇳🫘 China Soybean Buying Spree — China snapped up another 122,000mt of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, bringing its flash-sale total to ~2.5mmt over the past month. Buying is ramping up ahead of Xi Jinping's expected US visit, with chatter that sorghum and barley purchases could be next. 🤝

📦 US Export Sales — Corn sales tumbled to a marketing-year low of 116,700mt, down 68% week-over-week, with South Korea leading purchases. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year low at just 32,200mt (Indonesia the top buyer), while wheat held steadier at 296,400mt led by the Philippines. 🚢

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🌍 Global Food Prices Set to Climb 📈 The UN warns food prices could start rising by year-end and accelerate into 2027, driven by conflicts in Iran/Ukraine pushing up oil, diesel, gas, and fertilizer costs. 🌦️ El Niño threatens crop yields in key growing regions, and while consumers haven't felt it yet, higher commodity costs typically take 3-6 months to hit grocery shelves.

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Again 📉 Dec26 corn dropped ~6 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans fell 3 cents to ~$11.75/bu as favorable rain forecasts across the Corn Belt pressured prices, with StoneX projecting a yield above USDA's estimate. 🌾 Wheat bucked the trend and closed higher on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

🏛️ Farm Bureau Pushes for Senate Aid Approval 💰 AFBF President Zippy Duvall is urging the Senate to pass the House's budget resolution, which includes $12 billion in economic aid for farmers and ranchers. 🚜 The relief won't fully cover recent losses, but comes as producers battle rising costs, inflation, and weak commodity prices — on top of an estimated $44.3 billion in government payments already expected this year.

🚢 Flash Sale Alert: Corn Export Sold 🌽 USDA reported 120,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to exporters on Wednesday. 📦 30,000mt ships in the 2026/27 marketing year, with the remaining 90,000mt slated for 2027/28 delivery.

⛽ Ethanol Production Dips, Margins Hold Strong 📊 Weekly ethanol output fell 2.3% week-over-week to 1.11 million barrels/day, though it's up 1% year-over-year, while stocks slipped to 24.52 million barrels. 💪 Despite the dip, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain healthy, running 10-40 cents positive per Reuters data.

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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates — StoneX pegged the national corn yield at 184.8bpa (16.16bil bu), above USDA's 183.0bpa, while soybeans came in at 53.0bpa (4.47bil bu), just above USDA's last call. 📊 USDA updates its own numbers on August 12, so all eyes are on that report next.

📉 Grain Markets Slide — Corn (Dec26) and soybeans (Nov26) both closed lower Tuesday, pressured by falling crude oil on Iran diplomacy hopes and better August rain chances across the Corn Belt. 🌦️ Wheat also slipped despite ongoing Black Sea shipping chaos.

🇨🇳 Another China Soybean Flash Sale — USDA confirmed a fresh 132,000mt soybean sale to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. 🔥 That's the third flash sale to China in just the past week.

⚓ Black Sea Export Crisis — Russian strikes near Odesa have shipowners suspending calls, choking off Ukraine's grain export routes and crushing local prices by ~30%. 🚂 Rail/road/river alternatives won't hit meaningful capacity until late August, and even then only handle about half the usual volume — risking 30mmt+ in lost exports.

📈 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds — Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer jumped to 126 in July from 113 in June, though still below last year's 135. 💰 High input costs remain the top worry, but optimism about future export markets persists.

🏭 ADM Raises Guidance — ADM hiked its profit outlook again after a strong Q2, powered by biofuels policy tailwinds and a 129% surge in Ag Services & Oilseeds profit. 🚀 Shares rose 2%+ on the day and are up 38% YTD, while the S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high.

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🌽 Corn conditions slipped for a third straight week to 61% good-to-excellent, falling below the five-year average as hot, dry weather raised yield concerns. 📉 Dec26 futures rallied Monday, gaining ~9 cents to close near $4.73/bu on crop stress and a strong wheat rally.

🌱 Soybean ratings held steady at 63% good-to-excellent, just above the five-year average, while futures pushed higher on crop concerns and fresh export demand. 🇨🇳 USDA confirmed flash sales of 488,000mt to China and 136,150mt to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery, following reports of 14-16 cargoes purchased by Chinese buyers last week.

🌾 Spring wheat conditions improved to 55% good-to-excellent, topping the five-year average, and winter wheat harvest reached 86% complete, right in line with normal pace. ⚔️ Wheat futures surged on continued Black Sea attacks and news that US-Iran peace talks were called off.

🏡 US farmland values kept climbing in 2026, with average farm real estate up 3.4% to $4,500/acre and cropland hitting a record $6,020/acre. 📊 Growth has cooled from last year's pace, but Corn Belt land remains the priciest in the country at $8,590/acre on average.

🚜 CNH expects the farm machinery market to rebound in 2027 as aging equipment from the profitable 2022-2023 years drives replacement demand. 📈 Shares jumped Monday after the company raised its full-year outlook on better-than-expected Q2 earnings.

🚢 Corn export inspections hit an eight-week high at 1.9mmt, up 23% week-over-week and 45% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean and wheat inspections lagged behind last year's pace, with China absent from the week's soybean loadings.

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🌾 Grain Markets 
Wheat futures fell sharply Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's Black Sea-driven rally. Corn and soybeans also finished lower, pressured by improving weather forecasts calling for widespread Corn Belt rainfall and cooler temperatures. 🌧️ 
🇨🇳 China Ramps Up Soybean Buying 
China purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, marking its largest single-day buying spree of July. Traders expect more purchases ahead of trade talks later this fall, with China's new-crop commitments now nearing 3.9 million metric tons. 🚢🌱 
📦 USDA Flash Sale 
USDA also reported a flash sale of 252,000 metric tons (9 million bushels) of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. 📈 
💰 Funds Turn More Bullish 
Managed money funds were net buyers of 70,000 corn, 30,000 soybean, and 10,000 SRW wheat contracts last week. Net long positions in both corn and soybeans climbed to their highest levels since late May. 📊 
🌱 Corteva Raises Outlook 
Corteva raised its full-year profit forecast, citing strong demand across key crop markets. The company said increased soybean acreage should support seed sales, though fewer corn acres and higher input costs could weigh on crop protection demand later this year. 🌽➡️🫛 
🛢️ Iran Talks Resume 
US-Iran peace talks are set to resume today after President Trump called off a planned military strike in favor of diplomacy. Hopes for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil below $79 per barrel in early Monday trading. 🤝📉