Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped.
🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought.
🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated.
🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs.
🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.

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🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction.

🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt.

🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive.

💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war.

⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels.

📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.

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✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher
✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels
✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming?
✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war
✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets?
✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN
✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

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🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition.

🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board.

💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks.

🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows.

🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035.

🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.

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🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight.

⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak.

🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook.

📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat.

🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.