Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 ADM Deferred Pricing OfferADM is now offering deferred pricing at its Decatur, IL facility — a move aimed at jumpstarting soybean deliveries. Farmers can deliver soybeans now, transfer ownership, and set a final price anytime before September 2026.🟡 No storage fees🟡 Immediate ADM ownership🟡 Unusual timing — normally seen after the new yearSlow farmer sales due to weak prices are tightening processor supplies, prompting ADM’s rare “free DP” incentive.🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade TalksTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Malaysia this week. The session sets the stage for a Trump–Xi meeting later this month.👉 Trump hinted he’s open to lowering tariffs if China resumes soybean purchases “like before.”👉 The trade truce expires in November, keeping markets on edge.🌽🫘 Futures UpdateCorn and soybeans both ended the week higher:🌽 Dec ’25 Corn – around $4.23, supported by slow sales and lower yields🫘 Nov ’25 Soybeans – near $10.20, boosted by domestic demand and trade optimismOvernight gains continued after Trump’s weekend remarks.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting ProgressBrazilian soybean planting is racing ahead — 23% complete vs. 9% last year.🌧️ Well-distributed rain + warm temps are ideal.📊 Conab projects 177.7 MMT, while USDA is at 175 MMT.🐄 Cattle Market MovesCattle futures tumbled Friday after Trump hinted at potential steps to lower beef prices.💬 Analyst Brad Kooima says inflation-adjusted prices remain stable, but political pressure could spark a Brazil beef import deal, worrying U.S. producers.
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10:56
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10:56
Corn Finally Wakes Up - Start of a Rally??
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Market Turns HigherCorn and soybean futures advanced Thursday, supported by smaller-than-expected yields and harvest delays from upcoming rains. Dec ’25 corn added 5¢ to $4.22 while Nov ’25 soybeans climbed 4¢ to $10.11. Strong domestic crush demand and tighter spreads helped fuel optimism. Corn calendar spreads have rallied sharply—slow farmer selling and steady ethanol demand likely helped. 📈🇨🇳 China’s Soybean DilemmaHigh Brazilian premiums ($2.80–$2.90 over futures) may force China to tap its state reserves as crush margins remain negative. With 43.5 mmt of soybeans in storage—the largest on record—China has room to draw down stocks as it battles through the trade war.🐄 Cattle Prices Hit New HighsLive cattle surged to record levels, driven by tight supplies and border closures to Mexican cattle imports. Fat cattle traded $240/cwt in parts of the Midwest. The Trump administration says it’s working to lower beef prices, possibly through new import deals.⛽ Ethanol Stays StrongUS ethanol production rose to 1.07 million bpd last week while stocks fell slightly. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid—between 20–50¢ positive, according to Reuters.🏈 CME Launches “Prediction Futures”CME Group plans to roll out new contracts linked to sports and economic outcomes, partnering with FanDuel. These products could shake up prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.🌦️ Drought UpdateUSDA data shows 38% of the Corn Belt still under drought, though that’s improved from last year’s 53%. The worst areas remain in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota.
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23:09
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23:09
Farm Bailout Update, More $ to Argentina, Record Soy Crush
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Farm Bailout on HoldA “clever and generous” farm aid package is ready to launch once the government shutdown ends. Kevin Hassett says it was supposed to drop by Oct. 7 but got delayed. Reports point to at least $10 billion — likely funded by tariff revenue — to offset weak exports and global oversupply. Polymarket bettors see a 33% chance the shutdown lasts past Nov. 16.💸 U.S. Support for ArgentinaThe Treasury plans another $20 billion to stabilize Argentina’s economy — on top of last week’s swap line. Scott Bessent says funding is policy-linked, not political. Some reports hint the U.S. has already bought Argentine pesos, implying exposure to currency risk.🌱 NOPA September CrushThe September soybean crush hit 197.86 million bushels — the fourth-highest on record and 11.6% above last year. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.24 billion pounds, the lowest since Dec 2024 and below trade expectations. 🇨🇳 Trade War ConfusionTrump confirmed the U.S. is “in a trade war with China,” even as Bessent floated extending the current truce if China halts rare-earth export controls. Talks with South Korea, Canada & India continue, and Trump is still set to meet Xi in South Korea later this month.🚢 Mississippi River CrisisLow water levels for the fourth straight year are tightening grain transport south of St. Louis. Rates are rising and efficiency is dropping just as soybean exports face trade-war headwinds. 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes.🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.
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11:38
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11:38
Trump's "Silly and Misguided" Cooking Oil Threat
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against ChinaPresident Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade ShiftChinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.🌱 Soybean Market UpdateSoybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.🚢 Port Fees & Trade TensionsTrump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%).💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes.🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.
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12:15
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12:15
Trump/Xi Meeting Still Possible + US Dollar Rally
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US-China Meeting Still On President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month to discuss trade. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plans on Monday, easing fears the meeting might be canceled after a tense weekend. The news helped stocks rebound after Friday’s sell-off. Bessent said the two sides held extensive talks over the weekend and will continue discussions this week in Washington during the World Bank and IMF meetings. China’s commerce ministry reiterated it remains open to dialogue but warned the US against making threats while seeking talks.🌽🌱 US Harvest Progress Slows The US corn and soybean harvests are trailing last year’s pace. A Reuters poll showed corn harvest at 44% complete and soybeans at 58%, both slightly behind 2023 levels. Analysts attribute the lag to slower crop dry-down. Normally, USDA reports would confirm progress, but updates are paused due to the ongoing government shutdown.💵📈 Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Hopes The US dollar climbed Monday on optimism about a potential trade deal with China, brushing off Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, while the yen and euro weakened. Despite Friday’s market tumble, comments from Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested openness to more talks, helping restore confidence in US markets.🚜📊 Tractor Sales Finally Rise US tractor sales increased 4.1% in September—the first gain in over a year. The modest rebound offers hope for the struggling farm machinery sector, though combine sales plunged 22%. Manufacturers like John Deere expect 2025 to mark the low point for sales, with recovery likely next year.🌎🌾 China’s Soybean Imports Hit Record Levels China imported 12.9mmt of soybeans in September, the second-highest monthly total ever and the fifth straight record. Year-to-date imports are up 5.3% from last year, driven by strong demand and higher purchases from Argentina and Brazil. China hasn’t yet bought US soybeans this season, and renewed trade tensions are casting doubt on a Trump-Xi meeting to discuss the issue.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Accelerates Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly—14% complete as of last week, the third-fastest pace on record. AgRural reports rapid progress despite uneven weather, with Conab projecting a 177.7mmt crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 45% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes.🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.
Brasil