Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌎 Soybeans
Soybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt.

🌽 Corn
USDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market.

🌾 Wheat
Wheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady.

🏛️ US–China Developments
US Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases.

🏗️ US Grain Storage Capacity
The University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest Rates
Brazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness.

🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot Expansion
Brazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.

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🌱 Grain Markets

China returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11.
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target.
President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt.

🚢 Export Inspections

Corn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu)
⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last year

Soybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu)
⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last year
China accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes. 

Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu)
⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year

📊 USDA Preview

The USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST.

Expectations:
U.S. corn ending stocks: unchanged
U.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lower
U.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lower
World stocks: mostly unchanged
Brazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher

🛢️ Soybean Oil & Crush

Soybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil.
India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside. 

🚜 Farm Economy

Farm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases.
The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.

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🥩 Cattle & Beef

President Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices.
• Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef
• A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures
• Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time
• Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again

🌱 Soybeans

Soybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday.
• The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December
• The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt
• Traders remain skeptical China will follow through
• Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market

🌽 Corn & 🌾 Wheat

Corn and wheat futures ended the session lower.
• No fresh bullish catalysts
• Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Geopolitics

Trump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk.
• The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan
• This follows an $11B package approved in December
• China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations
• Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate

🇮🇳 India Trade

India is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products.
• Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS
• India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy
• Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers

🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Crop

Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast.
• ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year
• Yields remain strong across most regions
• StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop
• Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days

📊 CFTC & Funds

The latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated.
• Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window
• Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly
• Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans

⛽ Ethanol & E15

The push for year-round E15 sales continues.
• E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales
• Usage is growing roughly 45% annually
• Draft legislation expected by mid-February
• Political divisions could slow progress

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🌱 Soybeans Lead the Rally

Soybean futures pushed higher again Thursday, building on momentum from President Trump’s comments suggesting China could increase U.S. soybean purchases this season. While some traders are buying into the optimism, others remain skeptical that verbal commitments will turn into real demand—especially during Brazil’s peak export window. Corn and wheat futures also finished the session higher.

💰 USDA: Farm Profits Jump on Government Payments

USDA’s Economic Research Service says farm income rebounded last year, largely due to a sharp increase in direct government payments. Looking ahead, USDA expects farm income to level off somewhat, with payments remaining elevated relative to recent years.

⚖️ Fertilizer Prices Under DOJ Scrutiny

The Iowa Corn Growers Association is pressing the Department of Justice for updates on its investigation into fertilizer pricing. The group says high input costs are adding to financial stress across farm country and wants clarity on whether consolidation in the fertilizer industry is limiting competition.

🚢 Export Sales Remain Soft

Weekly export sales were underwhelming across the board. Corn sales declined again, soybean sales hit a marketing-year low, and wheat sales came in near the bottom of expectations. While China was the top soybean buyer for the week, overall demand remains sluggish.

🌧️ Drought Still a Concern

Cold temperatures limited drought improvement despite some recent precipitation. Frozen soils and low Mississippi River levels continue to restrict barge traffic, while drought conditions across the High Plains remain largely unchanged.

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🌱 China & US Soybeans

China is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures.

That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window.

China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains:
➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season?
➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions?

Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic. 

🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns Grow

Former US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.”

They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year.

While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses.

🌽 Ethanol Production Slumps

US ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels.

Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs. 

🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm Threat

Texas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources.

Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices. 

🌾 Corn Flash Sale

USDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.