Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean Strength
The EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March.

Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years.

Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest.

🌽 Corn Market Pressure
Corn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets.

🌾 Wheat Faces Global Headwinds
Chicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market.

🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean Flows
U.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year.

The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows.

📦 Export Inspections Update
U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor.

🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil Stocks
NOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes.

Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.

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🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035)
USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment.

🚜 The Future of US Farms & Ranches
A major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets.

📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders
Money managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting Progress
Brazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand Signals
Diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes.

🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas Pullback
Natural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.

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🌱 Soybean Market Rally
Soybeans moved sharply higher following a South China Morning Post report hinting that the US–China trade truce could be extended when Trump and Xi meet in April. President Trump recently suggested China may boost US soybean purchases to 20mmt, but skepticism remains as Brazilian beans continue to dominate global offers at a discount.

🌽 Export Sales Breakdown
Corn export sales were a clear bright spot, easily beating expectations with Japan leading the charge. Soybean sales, however, slipped to a marketing-year low despite China showing up as the largest buyer. Wheat sales posted modest improvement. What does this mixed demand picture mean going forward?

🌎 South America Weather & Production
Argentina’s crops are still in a weather-critical window, with dryness raising concern about yield potential. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to stack record production, with Conab raising its soybean estimate again. Harvest is advancing — and global supply pressure is building.

🥩 Beef Industry Developments
Cargill is closing its Milwaukee processing facility, adding to the growing list of plant slowdowns and shutdowns. With the US cattle herd near historic lows, the livestock sector faces tightening dynamics that could reshape margins and price behavior.

☀️ Drought Monitor Update
Large portions of the Corn Belt saw limited precipitation, while drought conditions worsened in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. We review what this means as the growing season approaches.

🚢 Flash Sale to Egypt
USDA reported new soybean business to Egypt. How significant is this sale in the broader demand landscape?

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🌏 Global Market Developments
Chinese media hinted that the U.S.–China trade truce may be extended, while officials confirmed discussions around a potential presidential visit. Optimism surrounding trade stability helped support soybean prices overnight, with futures probing fresh multi-month highs.

🚢 Demand & Trade Flows
China’s appetite for U.S. sorghum continues to generate buzz. Reports suggest strong buying interest tied to tight domestic feed supplies and lingering quality issues in China’s corn crop. Notably, China has still shown little interest in U.S. corn, keeping alternative grains in focus.

⛽ Biofuels & Energy Markets
Marine fuel demand is gaining attention as a potential growth engine for biofuels. With global shipping facing mounting emissions pressure, renewable diesel and ethanol are increasingly part of the debate. Industry participants continue to question how easily existing engines could adapt.

🏛 Policy & Regulatory Watch
Corn grower groups are pressing the Department of Justice for clarity on its fertilizer industry investigation. Producers argue that input costs and market concentration remain critical issues ahead of the next planting season.

📦 Supply, Production & Margins
Ethanol production rebounded last week while margins improved across key regions. Stocks also moved higher, reflecting shifting operating conditions and steady blending demand.

🌽 Export Activity
USDA announced another flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, reinforcing the strong pace of export commitments and ongoing demand beneath the market.

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🌎 Soybeans
Soybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt.

🌽 Corn
USDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market.

🌾 Wheat
Wheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady.

🏛️ US–China Developments
US Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases.

🏗️ US Grain Storage Capacity
The University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest Rates
Brazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness.

🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot Expansion
Brazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.