Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Argentina Corn Crop UpdateArgentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas.For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt.📈 Corn & Soybean FuturesCorn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels.March corn settled near $4.22March soybeans closed around $10.43The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report.🔥 US Ethanol ProductionUS ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels.According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures.🇨🇳 China Soybean ImportsChina imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty.China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement.🚢 USDA Flash SalesThe USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea334,000 mt of soybeans sold to ChinaBoth were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.🥈 Silver & Gold Hit RecordsSilver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago.Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Ethanol & E15 PushThe Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum.The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes.Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term:Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offsConsumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy itProduction capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacityAn E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars.🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCAPresident Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1.Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below.🥩 Beef Prices Hit New RecordsGround beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%.Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below.🌱 Soybean Flash SalesUSDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday:168,000 mt to China152,404 mt to MexicoBoth are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.📊 Inflation UpdateThe December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022.Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below.🌎 Largest US LandownerThe owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres.Other top landowners include:Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acresJohn Malone: ~2.2 million acresTed Turner: ~2.0 million acresJeff Bezos: ~462,000 acresBill Gates: ~275,000 acres

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 CornCorn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA.The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise.USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record.🌾 Winter WheatUS winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million.Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California.Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over yearSoft red winter wheat: modest increaseWhite winter wheat: sharp decline🚜 Farm Policy & AidThe American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses.Duvall is urging:Expanded trade opportunitiesLabor reformYear-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costsFarm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs.🚢 Exports & DemandUS soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total.Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectationsWheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over weekUSDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn:204,000 mt to South Korea310,000 mt to unknown destinationsBoth for 2025/26 delivery.🏛️ Macro & MarketsRepublican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets.Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly• Corn exports are forecast at record highs• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged🇨🇳 China Buys More US SoybeansChina purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf• The remainder will ship from the PNW• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last weekDespite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.🚢 USDA Flash Sale UpdateUSDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest BeginsBrazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year• Warm, dry weather is expected to persistBoth Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningFor the week ending January 6:• Funds were net buyers of corn• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)• Net sellers of SRW wheat💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate CapPresident Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated.📉 2026 Corn Price OutlookAmple global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production.🚢 Weekly Export SalesU.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year.Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales.Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer.🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm UpdateNew World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs.🌱 China Soybean Flash SaleUSDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement.🌡️ Drought Monitor UpdateUSDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.