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Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Podcast Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Joe Vaclavik
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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  • US Farmers Sell TONS of Old Crop Corn: Right or Wrong??
    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📉 US Farmer Selling Increases Amid Economic Pressures 🚜According to Reuters, US farmers have increased their selling of corn and soybeans this week, following the USDA's report that reduced the 2024 corn and soybean production estimates. Despite the recent rally in grain markets, farmers continue to face low profits and rising input costs. Farm income has fallen by nearly 23% since 2022, raising concerns about the year ahead.🌱 Soybean Futures Fall Despite Tighter US Supply 🛑Soybean futures dropped sharply on Thursday, with the Mar25 contract losing 25 cents per bushel 🌾. While the US supply and demand situation has tightened, global soybean supply remains burdensome, and recent improvements in the weather forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina may have triggered the selling. The global market's supply concerns persist, but farmers and traders alike will be watching the weather patterns closely as these two key regions experience different growing conditions 📉.🌍 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Slightly Raised 📈Agroconsult has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 172.4mmt, a small increase from its previous estimate of 172.2mmt 🌱. This increase is attributed to ideal weather and favorable planting conditions in most areas of Brazil. However, excessive rainfall in central Brazil and dry conditions in southern Brazil could affect harvest and yields. Despite these concerns, Brazil’s overall soybean production is set to remain strong, with record acreage expected 🌾.💼 Trump’s Treasury Nominee Defends Tariff Plans 💰During his confirmation hearing, Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, defended the tariff proposals, suggesting they would be implemented gradually over the coming months 📊. Bessent emphasized that tariffs would help address unfair trade practices and geopolitical issues, despite concerns from some senators about their potential impact on inflation.US export sales showed improvements in corn and wheat but remained weak for soybeans. 🌾Corn sales reached 1mmt (40 million bushels), surpassing expectations, with Japan as the largest buyer 🇯🇵.Soybean sales were 569,100mt (21 million bushels), slightly up from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average . China was the largest buyer 🇨🇳.Wheat sales reached 513,400mt (19 million bushels), exceeding expectations, with South Korea as the largest buyer 🇰🇷.🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Shows Limited Improvement 🚨The USDA released its weekly drought monitor, showing minimal precipitation across the Corn Belt and High Plains. However, drought conditions improved slightly in eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, and northeast Missouri, while worsening in southwest Nebraska 🌾🌧️. Here’s a breakdown of the areas still affected:Corn: 42% affected 🌽Soybeans: 34% affected 🌱Winter Wheat: 22% affected 🌾Spring Wheat: 33% affected 🌾Cattle: 32% affected 🐄📦 Flash Sales of Soybeans and Corn 📊In another round of flash sales, US exporters sold:132,000mt of soybeans (5 million bushels) to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.135,000mt of corn (5 million bushels) to Taiwan 🇹🇼 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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  • Canada Threatens Tariffs + 45Z News and Soybean Selloff
    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe!1:00 Canada Tariff Threat3:45 45Z / CSA5:42 NOPA Crush8:13 Argentina Rainfall9:58 Ethanol Production10:59 Consumer InflationCanada's Potential Tariffs on US ProductsCanada is preparing to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of US products if President-elect Donald Trump moves forward with his planned tariffs on Canadian goods. The list of products targeted by Canadian tariffs hasn’t been disclosed yet, but they could affect almost a third of US exports to Canada. USDA Issues New Rule for Climate-Smart BiofuelsThe USDA has announced an interim rule regarding climate-smart practices for biofuel feedstocks. This includes corn, soy, and sorghum and provides farmers with more flexibility to adopt practices like no-till, cover crops, and nutrient management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This rule will tie into the 45Z tax credit guidance, potentially unlocking new market opportunities for farmers producing biofuel feedstocks. US Soybean Crush Hits Record HighThe National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its December crush data, showing that US soybean crush hit an all-time high of 206.6 million bushels. This is a 6.9% increase from November and a 5.8% increase compared to last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.2 billion pounds, although they were slightly below trade estimates. This marks a strong 2024 for soybean production and oil availability.Argentina's Crop Outlook RevisedThe Rosario Grains Exchange has lowered its corn and soybean crop estimates for Argentina. Argentina's corn crop is now projected at 48mmt, down from previous estimates of 50-51mmt due to dry conditions. Similarly, soybean output is expected to fall, as droughts have reduced yields. The revised forecasts suggest that rainfall in both Argentina and southern Brazil could provide some relief in the coming weeks.US Ethanol Production Remains StrongUS ethanol production fell slightly by 1% last week to 1.1 million barrels per day but remains up 3.1% compared to last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25 million barrels, marking a 3.6% week-over-week increase. Implied gasoline demand showed a slight dip, down 1.8% from the previous week, but remained steady year-over-year. Keep an eye on ethanol production as it continues to play a key role in biofuel output and agriculture!Inflation Indicator Declines for First Time Since JulyCore CPI (excluding food and gas) rose by 0.2% in December, showing the first decline since July. The annual increase is now 3.2%, down slightly from 3.3% in November. Headline CPI rose to 2.9%, staying in line with expectations. Experts are concerned that Trump’s economic policies could cause inflation to resurge. 
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  • Can China "AFFORD" to Avoid US Soybeans??
    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Reduced Tariff Threat and US Dollar3:43 Differing Tariff Opinions6:46 Grain Marketing WARNING7:37 CONAB Report9:52 FTC and John Deere10:57 Wholesale Inflation12:24 Flash Sale💰 President-Elect Donald Trump's Tariff Proposal: Gradual Increase 🌐President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is deliberating a gradual increase in tariffs starting next year. This approach aims to increase negotiating power while avoiding inflation spikes. The announcement on Tuesday triggered a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields 📉. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.75% 📊.🇨🇳 China's Soybean Trade: Is There a Tariff Threat? 🌾Analysts are divided on whether China will impose tariffs on US soybeans. While trade between the US and China remains crucial for both countries, China’s domestic production of soybeans is growing, which could reduce its reliance on US imports 🌱. However, US farmers support Trump’s policies, and he is unlikely to harm their interests. Analysts suggest that a phase two trade deal could address these concerns and ensure continued soybean trade.🌾 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Projected to Reach Record High 🌎Brazil's crop agency, Conab, forecasts a record Brazilian soybean crop of 166.3 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 12.6% from last season 📈. This is due to favorable growing conditions and a projected rise in soybean acreage. Soybean exports are expected to hit 105mmt, a 6.5% increase from last year 🚢. However, Brazil's corn production estimate was slightly lowered to 119.6mmt due to drier conditions in southern Brazil 🌽. See Brazil and Argentina weather maps below for more on the agricultural impact 🌧️.⚖️ FTC vs. John Deere: Lawsuit in the Works? 🚜The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is considering a lawsuit against John Deere for restricting repair access 🛠️. The FTC claims Deere's practices violate competition laws by denying farmers and independent repair shops access to necessary diagnostic tools. This has led to an increase in maintenance costs for agricultural equipment by 48% in the past four years 🚜. The FTC has been investigating Deere since 2021, and a decision on filing the lawsuit is expected soon 🏛️.📉 Wholesale Inflation Tamer Than Expected 📊Wholesale inflation in December came in below expectations, with the PPI rising by 3.3% compared to last year (up from 3% in November). The figure was still lower than the anticipated 3.5% increase 📉. Monthly prices rose by just 0.2%, well below the expected 0.4% 📈. 🌱 Flash Soybean Sale 🚢The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Tuesday 🌾. US exporters sold 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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  • MASSIVE Fund Buying Drives Corn/Soybean Rally
    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Big Row Crop Rally3:04 The Funds5:12 Canada Tariffs?8:07 China Soybean Imports9:42 South America Update11:34 Grain ShipmentsCorn and Soybean Futures Rally AgainCorn and soybean futures continued their upward trend on Monday, with Mar25 corn contracts gaining 6 cents per bushel, marking its best close since June 18th. The rally from the August low to Monday’s high saw a 72-cent increase, or about 18%. Meanwhile, Mar25 soybean contracts gained nearly 28 cents per bushel, achieving its best close since October 8th. From December’s low to the overnight high, the contract rose by $1.10, or approximately 12%. These market movements reflect a tightening of US supply and demand, driven by bullish data from USDA last Friday.Trump’s Tariffs on Canada to Include OilIn a major development, President-elect Donald Trump is planning to include oil in his tariffs on Canadian imports. The premier of Alberta confirmed the news after meeting with Trump over the weekend. Canada is expected to retaliate with its own tariffs, potentially restricting energy exports to the US. Alberta supplies nearly 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, which could have significant implications for energy prices.China’s Record Soybean Imports in 2024China has imported a record 105.03 million metric tons (mmt) of US soybeans in 2024, marking an increase of 6.5% from 2023. This surge in imports is attributed to concerns about potential US-China trade tensions under Trump’s administration, along with favorable crush margins and declining soybean prices. Despite the surge, Chinese traders have diversified their suppliers and are preparing for possible disruptions due to potential trade wars. US soybean sales remain strong but may face challenges from oversupply and weak margins.Soybean Harvest Disrupted in Mato GrossoRainfall is impacting soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state. According to AgRural, the harvest pace is the slowest in seven years, although the state’s soybean potential remains excellent with no quality issues reported. However, the delay could impact the second corn crop planting window, a concern for Brazil’s corn producers. Meanwhile, southern Brazil continues to experience hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall, affecting soybean crops.US Export Sales Exceed ExpectationsUS export sales were strong last week. The USDA reported that 1.4mmt (57 million bushels) of corn were inspected for export, up 64% from the previous week and 51% higher than the same week last year. Soybean shipments also increased to 1.4mmt (50 million bushels), up 4.2% from the prior week and 5.5% from last year. Wheat shipments were reported at 288,895mt (11 million bushels), though slightly lower than the previous week. Additionally, US exporters sold 198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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  • USDA Blockbuster - RECORD Corn and Soybean Yield Cuts
    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Surge Following USDA’s Bullish Report 📊Corn futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Mar25 contract gaining more than 14 cents per bushel and posting its best trade since June 20th 📈. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US corn crop by a whopping 267 million bushels, and USDA’s estimate of last year's national corn yield was cut by 3.8 bushels per acre, marking the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. As a result, 2024/2025 US corn ending stocks were revised down to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.738 billion previously 📉. See the ending stocks to use ratio charts below.🌱 Soybean Futures Follow Corn’s Lead 📈Soybean futures also rallied on Friday, with the Mar25 contract gaining over 26 cents per bushel, marking its best trade in nearly two months 📅. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US soybean crop by 95 million bushels. The USDA’s estimate of last year's US national soybean yield was cut by 1 bushel per acre, the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. Additionally, 2024/2025 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 380 million bushels from 470 million previously 🌾.🛢️ Crude Oil Prices Surge Following U.S. Sanctions 🇷🇺Crude oil prices surged on Friday, with WTI crude rising 3.6% to settle at $76.57 per barrel, its highest level since October 🔝. The increase was driven by U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil companies and more than 180 tankers, along with Russian energy officials and executives. These sanctions are expected to push Indian and Chinese refiners to turn to the Middle East for additional oil supplies 🌍.📊 US Export Sales Underperform 📉US export sales were disappointing last week. Net corn sales dropped to a marketing year low of 445,000mt (18 million bushels), down 43% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average 📉. Net soybean sales also fell to a marketing year low, with a total of 288,700mt (11 million bushels), down 40% from the previous week and 72% from the 4-week average 🚫. Net wheat sales also hit a marketing year low, coming in at 111,300mt (4 million bushels), down 21% from the prior week and 70% from the prior 4-week average 📊. See charts below.🍳 Biden Administration Releases 45Z Tax Credit Guidance 🍴The Biden administration released updated 45Z tax credit guidance on Friday 📝. The guidance prohibits the use of used cooking oil imports for biofuel production from qualifying for the tax credit under the GREET model. This led March soybean oil futures to jump 7%, reaching their highest level since June 2023. The updated guidance comes after a surge in cheaper used cooking oil imports from China, which had undercut domestic soybean oil prices 💸. While providing clarity, many US biofuel and agricultural groups criticized the guidance for lacking sufficient details on qualifying criteria 🌿.🌍 Brazil’s Soybean Crop: Conflicting Projections 🌾Brazil’s soybean crop projections remain in flux 📉. On Friday, Patria Agronegocios revised its estimate downward to 167.9mmt, a reduction from its earlier forecast of 170.4mmt. This revision was due to unfavorable weather impacting crop yields in some regions 🌧️. On the other hand, Safras and Mercado raised its forecast to 173.7mmt, an increase from 171.8mmt. Despite concerns about weather, Mato Grosso is expected to offset some production losses.
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Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.
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