Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean Export InspectionsUS soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year.🌽 Corn & Wheat ShipmentsCorn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace.🚢 Flash Sale & Export SalesUSDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns.🌎 China Shifts Away from US AgChina continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve.📉 Grain Futures SlideCorn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red.🥩 Beef Market OutlookBeef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter.🪙 Silver Takes a HitSilver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🪙 Precious MetalsSilver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.💵 US Dollar & Interest RatesThe US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.See charts below.🌧️ South American WeatherDry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.🌽 Grain MarketsCorn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.🌍 GeopoliticsPresident Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚁 Drone Industry ShockA new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior weekChina was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total salesCorn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmtJapan was the largest buyerWheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchasesOfficial U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.🌱 Grain Market UpdateSoybean futures edged lower Tuesday.The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.🇺🇸 U.S. Economy UpdateThe U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.🥇 Precious Metals ExplosionPrecious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.Silver surged past $70/ozGold climbed above $4,490/ozPlatinum and palladium also moved sharply higherThe rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data QualityThe US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.🚢 Weekly Export InspectionsUS soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop OutlookAgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea TensionsWheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export SalesUSDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.💰 Gold & Macro MarketsGold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments.🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 USDA Farm Aid UpdateThe USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells FarmlandTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.🌽 Brazil Corn Crop TrimmedSafras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in NovemberChina imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.🚨 USDA Flash SaleU.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.For the week ending December 9:Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed ReportAs of December 1:Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.🏭 More Packing Plant Closures PossibleTight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.