Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨
Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens.

The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end.

Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains.

Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure.

USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after!

Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive.
Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇

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🚨 BREAKING: US-Iran Ceasefire SHOCKS Markets | Oil Crashes $22, Grains Tumble & What It Means for Farmers

Just hours before planned US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a last-minute two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Oil plunged nearly 20% overnight—but is the relief rally built to last? 💥

We break down everything you need to know:
🛢️ Oil & Energy — WTI crude cratered from $113 to $91/bbl overnight. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but Iran's proposed $2M-per-vessel transit fees add major uncertainty. Will prices stay elevated?

🌽 Grain Markets — Corn and wheat are under heavy pressure while soybeans are staging a recovery. With funds holding massive net long positions of 210K contracts in corn and 190K in soybeans, will traders defend or liquidate?

📈 Stocks Surge — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up nearly 3% on the ceasefire news.

💸 Inflation Watch — Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%—the biggest monthly spike in a year. Friday's CPI report will be a major market mover.

🌾 Farmer Sentiment — The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer climbed 11 points in March. Cautious optimism is returning to farm country.

🇷🇺 Russia Wheat — Argus raises its crop forecast to 88.7 MMT. More competition ahead for US wheat exports.

🇨🇳 China Soy Shift—China is rapidly cutting US soybean dependence, with fermented feed alternatives now at 8% of industrial usage and climbing. A potential 6.3% drop in imports could be coming.

📊 Stay ahead of the markets — like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss a daily market update! 🔔

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🌾 Crop Markets Update | Wheat Ratings Sink, Cotton Surges & Iran Tensions Rattle Markets
Winter wheat is struggling — rated just 35% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2023 and well below the 5-year average. 🌧️ Rainfall is on the way for parts of the Plains, but the west remains dry. USDA projects US wheat acreage to hit its lowest level since 1919. 📉

🌿 Brazil's soy harvest is 82% done, but dryness is threatening the second corn crop. Rain in the forecast this week could help.
🇺🇸 Cotton futures surged to their highest since December as drought grips 88% of US cotton areas—even as the USDA projects a jump in intended plantings.

⚠️ Geopolitical risk is front and center — Trump's Iran ultimatum deadline hits tonight at 8pm EST. Markets are watching closely.

📦 On the export front, corn shipments came in strong at 79M bushels — up 24% year-over-year. Soybeans beat expectations too.

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Oil prices exploded Thursday with WTI crude jumping 11% to $111.54/barrel—the biggest single-day gain in 6 YEARS! 😱 Gas prices are already feeling the heat at $4.11/gallon nationally, and the Iran situation is FAR from over. Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz... the clock is ticking. ⏳

In today's update we cover:
🛢️ Oil's massive surge & what it means for corn prices
🌽 Funds dump 22k corn contracts—but still sitting on HISTORIC net longs
🫘 Soybean funds add 13k contracts with China buying
🌾 Wheat funds go net LONG for the first time since June 2022!
🌧️ Rain returning to HRW wheat country—bearish relief incoming?
🌡️ Drought update—High Plains baking while the Corn Belt gets relief
📦 Export sales: Corn strong, beans soft, wheat hits a marketing year LOW
🥩 JBS strike OVER — 3,800 workers return as cattle market watches closely
💥 Russia-Ukraine tensions flare again with a ship sunk in the Sea of Azov
CPI data drops Friday with inflation expected at 3.4% — don't miss it! 📊

👇 Drop your questions in the comments & don't forget to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for daily market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🚨 MARKETS IN CHAOS: Trump's Iran War Warning Sends Oil Soaring & Stocks Plunging
President Trump dropped a bombshell in a primetime address—warning of intensified strikes on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks. Markets responded instantly: WTI crude surges past $107/barrel (+$7) while stocks sell off hard. We break down exactly what this means for commodities and your portfolio.

📉 GRAIN MARKETS GET WHIPSAWED
Wheat futures took a beating Wednesday—Chicago May26 down ~19¢ to $5.98/bu, KC May26 off ~22¢ to $6.14/bu—as Trump hinted the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end. Meanwhile, western Plains dryness continues to threaten crops even as rain arrives in the Southeast. Corn and soybeans also slid on the war-end headlines.

🌽 CHINA MAKES A HISTORIC CORN MOVE
For the first time in over 15 years, COFCO booked Argentine corn — a major signal of shifting global trade flows. China has booked ZERO US corn for the current marketing year. What does this mean for US ag exports going forward?

🇧🇷 BRAZIL BREAKS RECORDS
StoneX raises its Brazil soybean forecast to a record 179.7 MMT, while the USDA sits at 180 MMT. Brazil's corn outlook gets a slight trim to 135.7 MMT. We've got all the charts you need.

⛽ ETHANOL UPDATE
Weekly US ethanol production dipped 3.7% week-over-week to 1.08M bbl/day, but margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at +15¢ to +40¢ — a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent week.