Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Grain MarketsSoybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher.🥩 New U.S. Dietary GuidelinesUpdated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy.🌽 Ethanol UpdateU.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices.🏠 Housing & Interest RatesMortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability.🏘️ Institutional Home Buying DebatePresident Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn DemandThe Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage. 🌱 China Buys U.S. SoybeansUSDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter. 🚢 Brazil Export UpdateBrazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season. 🚜 Farmer Sentiment SlipsU.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced. 📈 Stocks, Oil & VenezuelaU.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 Geopolitics & OilThe U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)Panama / Noriega (1989)🚢 Export InspectionsUSDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.Soybeans: 980,518 mtUp from the prior weekDown vs. last yearChina accounted for roughly 40%Corn: 1.2 mmtLower vs. last weekStrongly higher vs. last yearWheat: 183,305 mtBelow expectationsSharply lower week-over-week and year-over-yearMarketing-year-to-date shipments:Soybeans: sharply behind last yearCorn: well aheadWheat: modestly higher📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyerCorn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by MexicoWheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination🌱 Brazil Crop UpdateStoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.Conab: 177.6 mmtUSDA: 175 mmtBased on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.💰 Fund PositioningThe CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.Funds continued selling corn and soybeansSoybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-NovemberSmall net buying was seen in SRW wheat🥇 Metals & MacroGold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Geopolitics & EnergyThe US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan.The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward.Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop.🚜 Farm Aid UpdateUSDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar.Payment rates:Corn: $44.36 per acreSoybeans: $30.88 per acreWheat: $39.35 per acrePayments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links.🌱 Grain Markets & WeatherSoybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months.Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week. 🐄 LivestockMexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site.The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active. ⛽ EthanolUS ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels.According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon. 🚢 Export SalesUSDA released another delayed export sales report:Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the totalCorn sales exceeded expectations, led by MexicoWheat sales came in near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy UpdateChina is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027.China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge. 📉 Grain & Oilseed Market RecapSoybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest. 🌧️ South American Weather UpdateBrazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary.Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer.🌾 Argentina Crop UpdateArgentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans. 🚢 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday:• 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery• 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March.👉 Subscribe for daily grain market updates💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments