Soybean Prices TANK Because China Isn't Buying Enough + SCOTUS/Tariffs
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.🌾 Soybean Market DropSoybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉🇨🇳 China Trade UpdateCOFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s TariffsThe Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.🇦🇷 Argentina Crop ProgressSoybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.🌧️ US Drought MonitorRecent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.Corn: 30%Soybeans: 32%Winter Wheat: 38%Spring Wheat: 17%Cattle: 26%💼 Jobs & MarketsPrivate data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)
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19:07
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19:07
China Buys US Wheat/Sorghum + USDA's Corn Yield # is Too High
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain MarketsReuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.💼 Tariff Rollbacks from BeijingChina’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.🌽 Corn Harvest & YieldsCorn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.🍶 Ethanol Sets a New RecordU.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.Stocks: 22.66 million barrelsMargins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer GambleBrazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.🐄 Cattle Market MeltdownCattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.
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13:43
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Big Farm Aid Next?? $12B Rumor and Why Farmers Still Support Trump
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.💰 Farm Aid UpdateThe Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.🏭 ADM Outlook CutADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.💵 King Dollar FlexesRisk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment ReboundsThe Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.📊 Barometer graphics below.🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still ClosedSec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.📏 S&P Global Crop EstimatesS&P holding steady:🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu
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14:47
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China Buys US Soybeans... Then Switches Back to Brazil
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 China’s Soybean ShuffleChina booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn HotUS soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬China is still absent.Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.Wheat is also stronger YoY.🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat AgainChina sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.🌱 Brazil Planting LagsHeat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.Some replant risk.StoneX tweaks the outlook:• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost WrappedAnalysts peg harvest at:• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)Dry weather helped.Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.📊 StoneX US Yield Update• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmedUS production is essentially steady vs last month.
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Is This REALLY a Win for Farmers? USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on China, Payments & Policy
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTube🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean PurchasesWhat does the new agreement really mean for US farmers?Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”?President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for:Farm incomeGlobal demandExport competitivenessLong-term policy visionIs it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input CostsWe talk:Future support programsInput inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel)Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder CattleHow does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on:Mexican border flowsFeeder cattle pricesBeef import potentialU.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈🏢 USDA Workforce CutsYep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.
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