Will China Hit the White House Soybean Purchase Target? + STRONG US Corn Sales
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…)Corn:USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer.I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data.Soybeans:Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer.Wheat:Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer.🚨 Flash Sales UpdateUSDA reported multiple flashes Friday:• 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26• 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal.There are 22 business days left in 2025.China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target.🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean ImportsChina halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus.Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly.🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins• Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW).• Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW).• Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year.Margins remain solid:Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs.🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online SpendingUS consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day.In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY.Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.
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China Buys MORE - "Soybean Farmer" Bessent says they're On-Schedule
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean BuyingChina made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks.🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework?Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides.Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week.📊 CFTC Fund Positioning UpdateCFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July.Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts.SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May.Private estimates for yesterday’s close:Corn: –110kSoybeans: +120kSRW Wheat: –65kCFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below.🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)For the week ending Oct 9:Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41%Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15%Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31%Mexico was the top buyer across all three. 🎰 Online Betting Risks Are GrowingBank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men.Research shows:Lower credit scoresHigher bankruptcy ratesMore debt going to collectionsPrediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.
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US to FINALLY Ship Soybeans to China + Farm Aid Package Update
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & SorghumTwo Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March.These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal.🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to ChinaChina resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported:• 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26• 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in NovemberWith 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt.🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20)Soybeans:• 799,042mt (29mb)• Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointingCorn:• 1.6mmt (64mb)• Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last yearWheat:• 474,530mt (17mb)• Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone CallPresident Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented.The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US.💵🚜 More Farmer Aid ExpectedUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.”Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks.🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month HighChinese corn futures have rallied due to:• Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions• Slow farmer selling• Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn outThrough October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.
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"Corn Piles in the Parking Lot" - Storage Crunch Hits Wisconsin and Elsewhere
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage CrunchWisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting UpdateConsulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the BoardAs of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef PlantTyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.Changes take effect by end of January.Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent OutlookThe government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.
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Farm Financial Stress/Bankruptcies Build + China Buys MORE Soybeans
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌦️ Weather & Drought UpdateMost of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OKUS Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%💰 Farm Financial StressThree straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.🚢 China Purchases & Export SalesFlash Sales Thursday:• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MYBrazil & Argentina Shipments:• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)• U.S. → 0mtChina imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.📦 Export Sales SnapshotCorn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyerSoybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyerWheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer🐂 Cattle MarketsCattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.• Trump is pushing lower beef prices• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further
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