Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 USDA Farm Aid UpdateThe USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells FarmlandTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.🌽 Brazil Corn Crop TrimmedSafras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in NovemberChina imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.🚨 USDA Flash SaleU.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.For the week ending December 9:Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed ReportAs of December 1:Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.🏭 More Packing Plant Closures PossibleTight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.🥩 Beef PricesBeef prices remain near record highs.Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.🌱 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.📦 Export Sales ReportCorn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.📉 Inflation UpdateCPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.🌧️ Drought MonitorScattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.US Areas Experiencing DroughtCorn: 32%Soybeans: 33%Winter Wheat: 36%Spring Wheat: 16%Cattle: 27%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.📊 USDA Flash Sales RecapUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 deliveryAdditional soybeans sold to unknown destinationsCorn sold to MexicoA cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in NovemberThis mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the ComplexChicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions EscalateRussia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up ReportThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production HighUS ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.📌 Bottom LineChina appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏥 ACA Health Insurance & FarmersEnhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums.Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage.Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain.As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks.🌱 Grain MarketsSoybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop.Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37.Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10.🇨🇳 China & SoybeansChina’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies.Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle.The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans.👷 US Labor MarketThe labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020.Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown.The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation.Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased.🛢️ Oil & EnergyOil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021.The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 NOPA Soybean CrushNOPA released its November crush report on MondayUS soybean crush hit an all-time November recordCrush was lower than October’s record, but well above last yearEnd-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month highOil stocks also came in above trade expectations📉 Soybean Futures PressureSoybean futures extended losses on MondayThe Jan26 contract settled near $10.72Market pressure continues from:Slow Chinese buyingExpectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channelsA near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation🚢 Export Inspections UpdateUS soybean inspections disappointed last weekShipments were well below last year’s paceAbout one-quarter of soybeans were headed to ChinaCorn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectationsNorthern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement🧪 Fertilizer Market NewsThe US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekendUS fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in responseBelarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impactBelarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supplyTrump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk📦 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported additional flash sales on MondaySoybeans sold to China for next marketing year deliveryCorn sold to unknown destinations📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)USDA released another outdated export sales reportSoybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by ChinaCorn sales slipped from the prior weekWheat sales landed near the low end of expectations