Two Quants and a Financial Planner

• The Dark Side of Value Investing: Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran

  Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value.Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing.The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics.The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris.Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio.The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes.The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.

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• Tariffs Are Here. The Market is Down. Here is What It Means for Investors

  In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.Main Topics Covered:Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.

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  1:05:02
• Most Great Traders Failed First: These Key Rules Saved Them | Practical Lessons from Jack Schwager

  In this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life. From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds. Main Topics Covered:Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively.The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them.Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential.Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom.The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time.How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches.Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules.Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades.Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow.The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses.How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past.Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.

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  49:14
• 75% of Investors Will Disagree with These Ideas: Evidence Says They are True

  In this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives. Main Topics Covered: - Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends - Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes. - Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics. - Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice. - Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future. - Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing. - Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives. - Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets. - Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach. - Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work. - Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance. - Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value. - Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers. - Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity. - Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade. - Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.

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  55:37
• The Great Moderation is Over: Here is What Comes Next | Practical Lessons from Liz Ann Sonders

  In this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels.Main topics covered:• The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting• Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times• The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions• How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading• Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following• The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions• Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management• Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains

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