Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Sales about the move in financial markets this week following the US-China trade war de-escalation announced on Monday. Derek explains why the dollar gain petered out quickly but also highlights the huge buying of UST bonds by private foreign investors. So even though foreign central banks might be selling, the buying by private investors easily offsets that. Derek and Jack also discuss the USD/Asia moves and how investors’ behaviours in regard to hedging USD exposures may be changing.
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15:04
Is a USD recovery underway?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week and helping to lift the USD.
Will USD gains on the back on recent trade deal optimism and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates prove sustainable?
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10:04
May 2025 FOMC Preview: Inaction is action (and a potential policy mistake)…
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas previews our expectation ahead of the May FOMC meeting. We believe that the Fed will skip for a third time in the cycle and have a difficult time threading the needle and making everyone happy at this upcoming meeting. If the Fed elects to stay on the sidelines to wait for data to confirm that further rate cuts are needed, they might realize that they will come too late. If the Fed messaging comes across as more hawkish than markets would like, it could result in risk assets to continue giving back recent returns.
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9:24
USD Sell-off Intensifies Despite Strong US Jobs Data
After a stronger than expected US jobs report and increased speculation of an easing in trade tensions, Derek Halpenny. Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales to discuss financial market conditions and the renewed depreciation of the US dollar. Derek also looks to next week and discusses the FOMC and BoE meetings and the fallout for the yen following the BoJ meeting this week.
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9:49
How low could oil prices go?
The US administration has signified a strong preference for lower oil prices to support the American consumer. In our 2025 energy outlook (see here), we believed loose supply-demand fundamentals could help achieve this goal even without any action from the administration. The dent to global demand that the imposition of US tariffs will impose has reinforced our bearish oil price thesis with the trajectory unambiguously to the downside.
Forecasting oil market conditions is challenging under the best of times, but at the current juncture, all estimates come with larger-than-usual uncertainty intervals. In this context, and given the fat tail risks that exist in today’s environment, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s parameterisation of scenarios for global oil markets to frame how low oil price can go.
Brasil